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Technical Analysis

Gold – XAU/USD Analysis – May 14, 2021

U.S. Retail Sales Ahead!

Gold prices are trading slightly bullish at 1,834, having bounced off over the support area of 1,812 level. During the early European session, the precious metal gold remains under pressure amid the stronger U.S. dollar. The stronger greenback makes precious metals more costly for foreign investors, although a pullback in the U.S. Treasury yields restricted losses for the safe-haven metal.

The U.S. dollar and yields mounted on the back of stronger-than-expected inflation figures released on Wednesday. At the same time, the dollar gains more bullish momentum on the back of stronger than expected jobless claims data. During the week ending May 8, the advance numbers for seasonally adjusted jobless claims was 473K, a drop of 34k from the previous week’s improved level. This released data was the lowest level for initial unemployment claims since March 14, 2020, as the figures were 256K.

The jobless claims figure for the previous week was improved by 9K from 498K to 507K. This week, the U.S. Department of Labor reported jobless claims of 473K vs. 487K forecast while the figure was 507K during the previous week. Improved economic data helped the U.S. dollar gain bullish momentum and pressured the precious metal gold. The safe-haven appeal triggered the fears of war between Israel and Gaza. Israel military and Palestinian militants in the Gaza strip exchanged fires and escalated the fears of full-scale war. Israel carried out hundreds of airstrikes on Gaza, destroyed three tower blocks, and killed senior Hamas officials. In response to this, Palestinian militants fired more than 1000 rockets into Israel. The UN feared that the rising tensions between countries might start a full-scale war, which raised the need for a safe-haven appeal and supported gold prices.

During the U.S. session, the Census Bureau will be releasing the Retail Sales data for the U.S. economy. Economists are expecting a sharp dip in retail sales from 9.8% to 1.0%, while core retail sales are expected to drop from 8.4% to 0.5%.

Gold Intraday Technical Level

Support Resistance
1821.99 1846.39
1807.82 1856.62
1797.59 1870.79
Pivot Point: 1832.22

Gold – XAU/USD – Technical Outlook

Gold is trading bullish at 1,833, having bounced off the support area of 1,814 level. Gold has reentered a trading range of 1,846 – 1,820. On the daily timeframe, gold is soaring towards the triple top resistance level of 1,844 level. The violation of this opens up additional room for buying until the next resistance area of 1,856 and 1,870. On the 4 hour timeframe, gold has crossed above 20 periods EMA at 1,829 level and 50 periods EMA at 1,814 level. Both of these EMA are support gold prices and are demonstrating odds of bullish trend continued until resistance area of 1,844. Later today, the focus will stay on the U.S. retail sales data as it can drive further price action in gold prices. All the best!

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Technical Analysis

BTC/USD Analysis – May 14, 2021

Bullish Correction in Play!

The BTC/USD crypto pair managed to stop its early-day crash moves and took a new position around above the $50,000 level. The BTC/USD pair dropped almost 13% of its value over the last 24 hours after the tweet from Elon Musk highlighting Tesla’s suspension of bitcoin payment acceptance due to sky-high energy needs.

Elon Musk’s crypto-supporting comments have been seen as one of crypto’s biggest advocates over the last few months, which in turn, Bitcoin (BTC) has performed “very well” over the previous few months. Although, the gains were short-lived as Musk’s latest comments sent bitcoin prices into a tailspin, quickly sparking a steep selloff. Conversely, the upbeat market mood and bearish U.S. dollar were considered one of the key factors that help the BTC/USD pair limit its deeper losses. The BTC/USD crypto pair is trading at 50,334.8 and consolidating in the range between 48,874.0 – 50,811.2.

The BTC/USD pair has been bearing intense pressure from sellers this week as multiple news triggers collectively impacted and pressed to make it bearish. A recent decline in the global stocks or the recent downbeat Musk’s comments, everything weighs on the BTC value. As per the keyword, Elon Musk said that Tesla would suspend customer purchases of cars with bitcoin (BTC), pinning the decision on the network’s power consumption as the catalyst.

Another reason behind the declining prices of Bitcoin could be the latest statement from the Chairman of the investment firm Bain Capital. Steve Pagliuca, the Chairman of Bain Capital, said that Bitcoin was hard to be seen as a viable currency yet. He added that the stability of the primary cryptocurrency was not satisfactory, and it has a long way to go to be trusted in lots of places. These negative comments from the Chairman of an investment firm weighed on the Bitcoin prices and dragged them lower for the day.

BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance
49068.6 50448.3
48443.7 51203.2
47688.8 51828.1
Pivot Point: 49823.4

BTC/USD – Technical Outlook

On Friday, the BTC/USD pair continues to feel the bearish pressure as it consolidates below the psychological resistance level of 50,000. A day before, the BTC/USD plunged dramatically, falling from 52,635 level to 44,900 level. However, the pair has recovered most of its losses already. At the moment, Bitcoin’s support holds at 48,850 and 46,980 levels. While the resistance continues to hold around 52,630 level and bullish breakout, this can expose the leading crypto pair towards 53,462 levels. On the 4 hour timeframe, the 20 & 50 periods EMA are extending resistances at 53,465 areas. Considering the technical indicators, the bullish correction has started in BTC/USD pair. All the best!

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Technical Analysis

Gold – XAU/USD Analysis – May 13, 2021

U.S. Jobless Claims In Focus!

Gold dropped more than 1% on Wednesday and extended its losses amid the comeback in the U.S. dollar and the U.S. Treasury yields after the release of inflation data. The rising prices of the dollar and U.S Treasury yields reduced the appetite for non-yielding bullion and dragged it on the downside. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that measures the greenback’s value against the basket of six major currencies, rebounded on Wednesday and jumped to $90.79. The U.S. Treasury yield on benchmark 10-year note extended its bullish momentum and rose for the 5th consecutive session to reach 1.695%.

Both the U.S. dollar and yields rose on the back of stronger-than-expected highly awaited inflation data released on Wednesday. Logically, gold should have rallied after the higher inflation data due to its status as a store of value and hedge against inflation. But market participants were highly anticipating it already, and the rising bond yields made it difficult for gold to attract investment due to its non-yielding status. At 17:30 GMT, the Consumer Price Index in April rose to 0.8% from the expectations of 0.2% and supported the U.S. dollar. In April, the Core CPI also surged to 0.9% from the forecasted 0.3% and supported the U.S. dollar.

The rising numbers of inflation raised hopes that the Federal Reserve will be now forced to hike interest rates earlier than expected in 2023. These hopes pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher on board and supported the greenback that ultimately weighed on yellow metal prices.

These hopes for an interest rate hike sooner than expected were downplayed by the Federal Reserve, Richard Clarida, on Wednesday. Clarida affirmed the comments made by Jerome Powell that higher U.S. inflationary signals were temporary and did not require a rate hike.

He said that it was not yet the time to pull back on support for the economy, though he also added that the Fed would not hesitate to use tools if the risk of persistent upward drift in inflation emerged.

Furthermore, according to the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic, the U.S. economy was in a transitional period. It has reopened from the pandemic, and the inflation was likely to remain volatile, and workers were closely considering their options. Bostic said that both demand and supply of workers, goods, and services were unsettled now, and hence, a lot of volatility in prices and pricing will be seen in the coming months.

The comments from Fed officials added further strength to the U.S. dollar and weighed heavily on the prices of yellow metal on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the risk-off market sentiment emerged late Wednesday after the fears of war escalated between Israel and Gaza. Israel military and Palestinian militants in the Gaza strip exchanged fires and escalated the fears of full-scale war. Israel carried out hundreds of airstrikes on Gaza, destroyed three tower blocks, and killed senior Hamas officials. In response to this, Palestinian militants fired more than 1000 rockets into Israel. The UN feared that the rising tensions between countries might start a full-scale war, which raised the need for a safe-haven appeal that capped further losses in gold prices on Wednesday.

Gold Intraday Technical Level

Support Resistance
1821.99 1846.39
1807.82 1856.62
1797.59 1870.79
Pivot Point: 1832.22

Gold – XAU/USD – Technical Outlook

Gold is trading bearish at 1,819, having violated a narrow trading range of 250 pips. Gold has broken the trading range of 1,846 – 1,820. On the daily timeframe, gold is heading lower to complete 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1,814 level, and violation of this opens up additional room for retracement until 61.8% level of 1,799. On the 4 hour timeframe, gold has crossed below 20 periods EMA which demonstrates bearish bias in gold. The leading indicators such as RSI and MACD are neutral, such as the RSI value has dropped below 50, and the MACD is still above 0. This indicates indecision among traders. Later today, the focus will stay on the U.S. Jobless Claims data as it has the potential to drive volatility in the gold market. All the best!

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Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Analysis – May 13, 2021

Eurozone Enjoys Ascension Day Holiday

The EUR/USD fell on Wednesday amid the rising prices of the U.S. Dollar and the U.S. Treasury yields after the release of U.S. inflation data on the day. In April, the strong inflation report added strength in the U.S. treasury yields on rising hopes that Fed will raise interest rates given increased prices.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that measures the greenback’s value against the basket of six major currencies jumped on Wednesday and reached $90.79. At the same time, the U.S. Treasury yield on benchmark 10-year note rose for the 5th consecutive session and reached 1.695%. The rising yields and dollar prices kept the currency pair EUR/USD under pressure for the day. The EUR/USD pair remained under pressure as the data from the European Union also remained against the single currency Euro on Wednesday after CPI from France and Industrial production from the whole bloc came in short of expectations.

On the data front, at 11:00 GMT, the German Final CPI remained flat at 0.7%. At 11:45 GMT, French Final CPI for April declined to 0.1% against the forecasted 0.2% and weighed on the single currency Euro and added further EUR/USD pair losses. At 14:00 GMT, the Industrial Production in March reduced to 0.1% from the expected 0.8% and weighed on Euro and dragged EUR/USD pair further lower. From the U.S. side, at 17:30 GMT, the Consumer Price Index in April surged to 0.8% from the projections of 0.2% and supported the U.S. dollar and added further losses in EUR/USD pair. In April, the Core CPI also rose to 0.9% from the estimated 0.3%, supported the U.S. dollar, and dragged EUR/USD pair even lower.

Meanwhile, the world’s biggest holiday group, TUI Group, said on Wednesday that Europe’s summer holiday season could be saved. TUI group expects a strong 2021 summer season as the last-minute bookings increased due to the rising level of vaccinations. The company will operate 75% of pre-pandemic capacity after getting hit hard during the last six months. The world’s biggest holiday group reported a 1.3 billion euro loss for the six months ended in March and said that the worst had left behind as European resorts have started to open. This news kept the losses in EUR/USD pair limited for the day as it supported the single currency Euro.

Furthermore, the currency pair EUR/USD was also declining on Wednesday as the risk-off market sentiment emerged in the market after the fears of war between Israel and Palestine escalated. The United Nations feared a full-scale war after Israel militants and the military of Palestine at Gaza strip had a deadly exchange of fires on Wednesday. Israel carried out hundreds of airstrikes on Gaza, destroyed three tower blocks, and killed senior Hamas officials. In retaliation to this, more than 1000 rockets were fired by Palestinian militants into Israel. The UN was alarmed that the rising tensions between both countries might start a full-scale war which raised the risk-off market sentiment and dragged the riskier assets like EUR/USD.

EURUSD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance
1.2118 1.2178
1.2091 1.2209
1.2059 1.2237
Pivot Point: 1.2150

EUR/USD – Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD fell dramatically from 1.2126 to 1.2073 level. Currently, the pair is gaining immediate support at the 1.2067 level, and violation of this level exposes the EUR/USD level until the next support area of 1.1992 level. On the 4-hour chart, an upward trendline supports the EUR/USD pair at 1.2067, and below this, the EUR/USD will come under selling pressure. However, holding of EUR/USD over 1.2064 level is keeping the pair bullish. On the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair has closed a bearish engulfing candle which is also adding selling pressure on the pair. The EUR/USD immediate resistance holds at 1.2130 and 1.2175 along with support around 1.2064 and 1.1992. All the best!

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Technical Analysis

BTC/USD Analysis – May 13, 2021

Dramatic Dip in Bitcoin!

Bitcoin crashed and fell below the $54,000 level on Wednesday after the United States Securities and Exchange Commission announced a warning to investors regarding the risk associated with the first-ever cryptocurrency – Bitcoin. The traditional payment methods paused during the pandemic as the world stood still and helped the digital assets, including cryptocurrencies, to move at the forefront of finance. The digital asset was pushed forward like never before after the physical coin was shorted. The rising demand for digital coins led to a shortage of cryptocurrencies on exchanges like Coinbase Pro and elsewhere.

The real reason behind the shortage of cryptocurrencies at exchanges was the investors’ behavior to hold the asset even the prices were declining. After the sudden bitcoin fall below $50,000, investors are still reluctant to sell their positions, hoping that they will reach $100,000 or more this year. However, they could be wrong, and this was one of the major factors that the U.S. SEC warned investors to consider risk as Bitcoin was highly speculative carefully.

Meanwhile, an Australian computer scientist, Craig Wright, who alleges that he created bitcoin, launched a London High Court lawsuit against 16 software developers to secure 4 billion pounds worth of bitcoin that he claimed to be stolen from him.

The court has approved the attempt to legally sue a dozen developers working on Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Cash ABC, and Bitcoin SV networks. The self-proclaimed Satoshi Nakamoto will go after the developers to make them recover over $4 billion of BTC supposedly stolen from his computer last year. This news added pressure on Bitcoin prices that remained below $54,000 on Wednesday.

Another reason behind the declining prices of Bitcoin could be the latest statement from the Chairman of the investment firm Bain Capital. Steve Pagliuca, the Chairman of Bain Capital, said that Bitcoin was hard to be seen as a viable currency yet. He added that the stability of the primary cryptocurrency was not satisfactory, and it has a long way to go to be trusted in lots of places.

These negative comments from the Chairman of an investment firm weighed on the Bitcoin prices and dragged them lower for the day.

On the flip side, a licensed crypto-to-cash exchange, Moneygram International Inc. and Coinme, announced on Wednesday the launch of a new partnership to enable the cash funding and payout of digital currency purchase and sale. It means Moneygram will start letting its customers buy and sell bitcoin at 12,000 locations in partnership with Coinme. It will expand the international market for the crypto king in the second half of 2021.

BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance
55617.6 57563.6
54784.3 58676.3
53671.6 59509.6
Pivot Point: 56730.3

BTC/USD – Technical Outlook

By the time of covering this update, the BTC/USD has plunged dramatically, falling from 52,635 level to 44,900 level. But soon after testing the 44,900 support level, the Bitcoin reversed to trade at 50,600 level. Right now, Bitcoin’s immediate resistance holds at 52,685 level, while the pair can gain support at 46,600 and 43,577 levels. Bitcoin has crossover below 20 and 50 periods EMA levels that demonstrate solid selling bias among investors on the daily timeframe. On Thursday, the investor’s focus will remain on the 56,750 area as below this, the bearish bias dominates. All the best!

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Technical Analysis

XRP/USD Analysis – May 12, 2021

Symmetrical Triangle Pattern in Play!

The XRP/USD crypto pair failed to stop its previous long bearish bias. The XRP/USD pair remained depressed around 1.4500 marks amid a combination of factors. The XRP/USD crypto pair failed to stop its previous losing streak and dropped 10% and consolidating in a range of $1.3549 to $1.7600. The XRP/USD had hit the $1.35795 level. That’s the biggest one-day percentage loss since May 10. However, these bearish moves pushed XRP’s market cap down to $51.07460B, or 2.14% of the total cryptocurrency market cap. At its peak, XRP’s market cap was $83.44071B.

The XRP/USD has seen a decline in value, as it lost 6.94% over the past seven days. The volume of XRP traded in the 24-hours to time of writing was $8.52439B or 3.60% of the total volume of all cryptocurrencies. As of now, the XRP/USD crypto pair is still down 58.72% from its all-time high of $3.29 set on January 4, 2018. Despite the multiple positive updates, the market trading sentiment failed to stop its previous-session bearish moves and remained sour on the day. However, the selling bias was entirely sponsored by the ongoing cautious sentiment ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s final decision about the monetary policy. Apart from this, the strained relations between China and Australia further acted as a headwind for the market trading sentiment. Elsewhere, the beating of the technology shares due to the Citibank downgrade put some additional pressure on the market trading sentiment.

As a result, the broad-based U.S. dollar is still flashing green as investors remain in favor of the safe-haven assets in the wake of risk-off market sentiment. However, the gains in the U.S. dollar could be short-lived or temporary as the U.S. Federal Reserve keeps favoring its dovish monetary policy stance. The dovish policy will continue until they see higher inflation and strong employment rates. Moving on, the traders seem cautious to place any strong position ahead of the U.S. inflation data for April, including the core consumer price index (CPI), which is due to release later in the week. Therefore, the upticks in the U.S. dollar were seen as one of the key factors that kept the XRP/USD pair lower.

Behind these bearish moves, the U.S. dollar strength could be considered as one of the key factors. Apart from this, the recent declines in global stocks also played its major role in undermining cryptocurrencies. Dow DJIA, -0.10% dropped 34.94 points, or 0.1%, to close at 34,742.82, after reaching an intraday high at 35,091.56. The S&P 500 SPX, -1.04% fell 44.17 points, or 1%, ending at 4,188.43. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -2.55% dropped 350.38 points, or 2.6%, to finish at 13,401.86.

XRP/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance
1.3633 1.5500
1.2050 1.6799
1.0285 1.8996
Pivot Point: 1.4052

XRP/USD – Technical Outlook

The XRP/USD is trading sideways in between a narrow trading range of 1.2008 – 1.6239 level. On the daily timeframe, the XRP/USD pair has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern that keeps the crypto pair in check. The 20 & 50 periods are keeping the pair supported on the 4-hour and daily timeframe. However, the RSI and MACD exhibit a mixed bias, as the RSI value holds above 50 and MACD is below 0. The symmetrical triangle pattern is also an indication of indecision among traders. Ripple’s immediate resistance stays at 1.6799 and 1.8396 level while the support holds around 1.3633, and below this, the pair will be exposed towards 1.0285 level. All the best!

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Technical Analysis

Gold – XAU/USD Analysis – May 12, 2021

U.S. CPI & Core CPI in Highlights!

The yellow metal prices rose as the U.S. dollar traded near a multi-month lower level. Investors were awaiting U.S. consumer price data to gauge inflation expected to release on Wednesday. The investors’ interests remained high in bullion due to increased fear of high inflation and weak U.S. jobs data. The rising prices of gold could also be attributed to investors’ started seeing gold as a hedge against inflation.

The U.S. Dollar Index that gauges the greenback’s value against the basket of six major currencies also fell on Tuesday to its lowest level since February 25, below $90 level at $89.98, and supported the yellow metal prices during the first half of the day. However, gold could not sustain its bullish momentum, pulled back its gains, and turned them into losses during the second half of the day. The U.S. dollar recovered its strength after the JOLTS Jobs Opening data release and also because of favorable comments from various Fed officials.

At 15:00 GMT, the NFIB Small Business Index came in line with the expectations of 99.8. At 19:00 GMT, the JOLTS Job Openings surged to 8.12M against the forecasted 7.50M and supported the U.S. dollar that weighed on gold prices on Tuesday. On Tuesday, the New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams said that the Libor benchmark was unreliable. The market volatility at the start of the pandemic was evidence that funding markets based on rates could crumble under stress.

Meanwhile, the Fed Governor Lael Brainard also said on Tuesday that the weak jobs report from the United States in April showed the value of the Federal Reserve’s willingness to wait before decreasing its support for the economy to ensure that the recovery was fully on track. Brainard said that supply chain disruptions and other reopening frictions were temporary and will be resolved over time, and they were unlikely to generate persistently higher inflation on their own. She attributed the prevailing higher prices to the increased demand generated after getting back to normal activities.

She added a need to remain patient through the transitory rise in prices associated with the reopening of economies. It will help ensure that a premature tightening of financial conditions did not limit the underlying economic momentum required to achieve the Fed’s goals.

These comments from various Fed officials added strength to the U.S. dollar and kept the gold prices under pressure for the day. Furthermore, the worldwide coronavirus cases crossed 159.03 million, and the death toll reached 3,444,309 on Tuesday. The previous day, World Health Organisation announced that B.1.617, the coronavirus variant identified in India, was of global concern.

Scientists were suggesting that this variant could be more transmissible and there was also evidence but not confirmed that this variant was immune to coronavirus vaccines. WHO raised a warning and called the India variant a global concern along with other variants of coronavirus, including Britain, South Africa, and Brazil. These fears and negative developments surrounding the pandemic situation added strength to the U.S. dollar due to its safe-haven status and pressed on the yellow metal prices.

Gold Intraday Technical Level

Support Resistance
1829.59 1845.14
1822.32 1853.42
1814.04 1860.69
Pivot point: 1837.87

Gold – XAU/USD – Technical Outlook

Gold is trading sideways at 1,830, maintaining a narrow trading range of 250 pips. This trading range has an upper boundary of 1,846 and a lower boundary of 1,820. On the daily timeframe, gold is facing a hard time crossing over 1,846 levels as investors seem to wait for a solid reason to trigger buying. On the 4-hour timeframe, gold has completed 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1,818 level, and the same level is working as immediate support. A bearish breakout of this level opens up additional room for selling until 1,809 and 1,799 levels.

Conversely, the precious metal’s resistance holds at 1,837 and 1,846. On Wednesday, the trader’s focus will stay on the U.S. Inflation figures as these figures can drive strong price action in the market. Economists expect CPI to drop from 0.6% to 0.2%, while the Core CPI data is expected to be neutral. All the best!

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Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Analysis – May 12, 2021

U.S. CPI & E.U. Economic Forecasts Ahead!

The EUR/USD rose to its highest since February 25 on Tuesday amid the news that the European Commission expects to finish work soon on a COVID-19 certificate that could allow citizens to travel more efficiently this summer in the bloc. According to an E.U. executive, the pass would allow the vaccinated, recovered from COVID-19 or with negative test results to cross borders in a union where restrictions on movement have weighed heavily on the travel and tourism industry for more than a year.

The Commission president said that it was working closely to inform the United States, the World Health Organization, and others about its progress to allow the certificate to be used on a broader scale. However, the European Parliament has said that no one will be obliged to use the E.U. certificate, and it must not be considered a vaccine passport. Another reason behind the rising prices of EUR/USD pair was the positive hopes for the summer holiday season as the vaccination campaigns in the E.U. were gaining speed with 200 million jabs being delivered a day along with the declining infection rates and the reopening of cities and beaches in the E.U.

The German Europe Minister Michael Roth said that the E.U. certificate was necessary for countries depending on tourism. Still, it was important for all countries as it was a clear signal for freedom of movement and mobility in the European Union. This added strength to the single currency Euro and pushed EUR/USD pair higher on Tuesday.

On the data front, at 11:00 GMT, the German WPI for April reduced to 1.1% against the expected 1.8% and weighed on the single currency Euro that capped further upside in EUR/USD pair. At 13:00 GMT, the Italian Industrial Production for March also declined to -0.1% against the forecasted 0.5% and weighed on Euro, limiting the upside momentum in EUR/USD pair. At 14:00GMT, the ZEW Economic Sentiment from the whole bloc for May rose to 84.0 against the projected 68.0 and supported Euro that added further EUR/USD pair gains.

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment also surged to 84.4 against the projected 72.0 and supported Euro that pushed EUR/USD pair even higher. From the U.S. side, at 15:00 GMT, the NFIB Small Business Index came in line with the projections of 99.8. At 19:00 GMT, the JOLTS Job Openings rose to 8.12M against the estimated 7.50M and supported the U.S. dollar that limited the rising prices of EUR/USD on Tuesday. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) also remained under pressure on Tuesday and dropped below the $90 level that also supported the rising prices of the EUR/USD pair. Furthermore, the scientists in France have warned of a race between variants and vaccinations. He said that a fourth wave of the pandemic would be unmanageable due to medical staff’s summer heat and exhaustion. This warning came in after France reported 20 new cases of the Indian variant in the country.

According to WHO, the Indian variant of coronavirus was a more contagious and global concern. It is considered responsible for the explosive second wave of coronavirus in India as WHO suspected that this virus might also have some resistance to antibodies. The rising fears that the Indian variant of coronavirus has entered the European Union could unleash the fourth wave of coronavirus. That added pressure on the single currency Euro and further capped gains in EUR/USD pair on Tuesday.

EURUSD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance
1.2112 1.2163
1.2094 1.2196
1.2061 1.2214
Pivot Point: 1.2145

EUR/USD – Technical Outlook 

The EUR/USD is trading slightly bearish at 1.2126, having completed 23.6% Fibonacci retracement on the 4-hour timeframe. Recently, the single currency Euro has closed “Three Black Crows” on the 4-hour timeframe, which suggests odds of bearish trend continuation in the market. That being said, the EUR/USD’s next support holds around 1.2104 level that’s extended by 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Continuation of further selling trend and violation of 1.2104 level exposes the pair towards 1.2058 (61.8% Fibo level). A similar support level of 1.2058 extended by 20 & 50 periods of EMA level on the daily timeframe. On Wednesday, the trader’s focus will stay on the U.S. Inflation figures as these figures can drive strong price action in the market. Economists expect CPI to drop from 0.6% to 0.2%, while the Core CPI data is expected to be neutral. Lastly, the E.U. economic forecasts from European Commission will also remain under the spotlight today. All the best!

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Technical Analysis

Gold – XAU/USD Analysis – May 11, 2021

Ascednign Triangle Breakout

Gold prices were closed at $1836.85 after placing a high of $1846.15 and a low of $1830.60. On Monday, gold held firm near a three-month high after dismal U.S. jobs growth number kept the dollar under pressure and raised expectations that interest rates will remain low for some time.

On Friday, the U.S. nonfarm payroll data disappointed the investors after it showed unexpectedly slow job growth in April and pushed the dollar down towards a 2-month lowest level, and made gold more appealing for the holders of other currencies.

The hopes of investors’ that the world’s largest economy might start recovering soon and that the U.S. Federal Reserve will start tightening the policy earlier than expected faded away after the lower-than-expected U.S. jobs growth in April.

On Monday, U.S. President Joe Biden urged employers to help get more of their workers vaccinated as it would boost the economy. Biden also touted the upcoming $350 billion in federal aid to state and local governments to help more parents get child care and return to work.

Biden also said that the ransomware attack that led to the shutdown of the Colonial Pipeline was a criminal act and vowed that his administration would take this matter very seriously.

Meanwhile, the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said on Monday that the Fed officials would like to see higher inflation, more wage growth, and several months of strong employment gains averaging 1 million jobs added before considering adjusting monetary policy. Evans said that it was a little more complicated as the economy has been restarted and many sectors were experiencing growing pains. He hoped that the slow job growth in April was just a one-month kind of thing and that the employment will be better after-wards.

There was no macroeconomic data released on Monday from the U.S., and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that measures the value of the greenback against the basket of six major currencies rose a little on Monday and reached a $90.34 level. The U.S. Treasury yields on a 10-year note also reached above 1.60% and supported the U.S. dollar that kept gold prices under pressure. Gold remained flat throughout the trading session on Monday and failed to give any significant move to its investors.

Gold Intraday Technical Level

Support Resistance
1833.51 1838.86
1830.13 1840.83
1828.16 1844.21
Pivot Point: 1835.48

Gold – XAU/USD – Technical Outlook

Technical side of gold hans’t changed a lot as it continues trading with bullish bias at 1,837 level, having disrupted an ascending triangle pattern on the daily chart. On the higher side, the violation of the 1,800 level has triggered a robust dramatic buying trend in gold; therefore, the precious metal is heading towards the next resistance level of 1,856 level. The precious metal has closed three white soldiers pattern that’s keeping gold’s trading sentiment strongly bullish on the daily timeframe. The EMA and RSI are in support of a buying trend today. Gold’s next resistance stays at 1,840 and 1,856, while the support remains at 1,833 and 1,819 levels. All the best!

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Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Analysis – May 11, 2021

Fibonacci Extension in Play!

The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.2129 after placing a high of 1.2178 and a low of 1.2127. After rising for three consecutive sessions, the EUR/USD pair dropped on Monday and broke its bullish streak after Euro came under pressure from contradicting messages from ECB members. According to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks, the European Central Bank could choose to cut down its bond-buying program as early as next month if the Eurozone economy continues showing signs of growth and recovery.

Kazaks said that the economy would need significant monetary stimulus well beyond the end of the pandemic. The monetary stimulus that has been delivered by emergency bond purchases, negative interest rates, and targeted long-term loans that keep banks’ credit for companies and households loose. Kazaks added no current reason to believe PEPP will be extended beyond its March 2022 end date and said that economic developments might even allow the ECB to finish the program without using up the entire 1.85 trillion euros.

On the other hand, another ECB official Olli Rehn said that ECB should also adopt the Fed’s approach of allowing inflation to rise above the 2% target to compensate for past misses. This would mean keeping the policy loose for longer. The difference of opinions from different ECB officials kept Euro under pressure and weighed on EUR/USD pair.

On the data front, at 13:30 GMT, the Sentix Investor Confidence rose to 21.0 against the forecasted 14.9 and supported Euro that capped further losses in EUR/USD pair on Monday. There was no macroeconomic data from the U.S. front for the session, so the currency pair remained under pressure.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that measures the value of the greenback against the basket of six major currencies, surged a little on Monday and reached a $90.34 level that supported the U.S. dollar and added further losses in EUR/USD pair. The U.S. Treasury yields on a 10-year note also rose and reached above 1.60%, pushing the U.S. dollar higher and keeping EUR/USD under pressure.

Europe has delivered about 200 million coronavirus vaccine doses to its people. Eurozone has reached closer to achieving its goal of inoculating 70% of its adult population by summer. As the infection rate has plunged and the vaccination rate has increased, Europe has started reopening its cities and beaches, and the hopes have been increased that this summer’s holiday season could be saved before it is too late. The reopening of European countries and international travel from Summer played an essential role in keeping the losses of EUR/USD par limited on Monday.

EURUSD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance
1.2161 1.2180
1.2150 1.2188
1.2142 1.2199
Pivot Point: 1.2169

EUR/USD – Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD is trading with a bullish bias at the 1.2144 level. The single currency is gaining bullish momentum against the U.S. dollar amid weaker than expected non-farm payroll data. The EUR/USD pair has closed a bullish engulfing pattern that suggests odds of a strong bullish trend in the EUR/USD pair on the daily timeframe. On the higher side, the pair faces resistance at 1.2177 level. The breakout of this exposes the EUR/USD pair until the 1.2250 level. On the lower side, the pair gains support at 1.2085, which is extended by 20 & 50 periods of EMA level. Below 1.2085, the EUR/USD’s next support stays at the 1.2050 level. The primary focus will remain on the technical levels, as the economic calendar isn’t scheduled to report any significant event today. All the best!