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Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Analysis – January 21, 2022

Daily Price Outlook

On Friday, the EUR/USD is trading bearish at 1.1315 level. It’s recovering from Tuesday’s sharp decline. The EUR/USD staged a modest recovery early Wednesday, but the pair may find it really difficult to proceed to edge higher in the near term. The risk-averse market situation will likely restrict the shared currency’s gains, and sellers may seek to maintain control by selling below 1.1320.

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield rose to 1.89 percent earlier in the day, its highest level in two years, assisting the greenback in retaining its mid-week strength. In the early European session, US stock futures indexes are down between 0.6 percent and 0.9 percent, indicating that safe-haven flows may continue to dominate financial markets in the second half of the day.

Earlier in the day, German data showed that the annual Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HCIP), the ECB’s preferred inflation gauge, was 5.7 percent in December. Almost every economist who responded to a recent Reuters poll said they expect the European Central Bank to keep the policy rate unchanged well into next year, even if inflation remains high in 2022. Meanwhile, the 10-year German Government Bond yield has risen into positive territory for the first time since May 2019, providing some temporary support to the common currency.
The US Housing Starts and Building Permits figures from the United States will be examined later in the session for new impetus. Traders will proceed to keep a close watch on US bonds and stock markets.

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Daily Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.1320 1.1360
1.1300 1.1378
1.1281 1.1399
Pivot Point: 1.1339

EUR/USD – Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD is bouncing-off the psychological support level of 1.1300. However, it appears to have violated the support at 1.1320, and the closing of candles under this level indicates a bearish bias in the EUR/USD pair.

The latest recovery seems to be a technical corrective rather than a reversal, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) still below 40. For example, if a four-hour candle closes below 1.1320, further losses are possible toward 1.1300 (psychological level) and 1.1270. Therefore, the support level of 1.1300 is in highlights.

On the bullish side, the initial resistance remains at 1.1350 (100-period SMA, Fibonacci 61.8 percent retracement), followed by 1.1380 (Fibonacci 50 percent retracement). The break above 1.1380 exposes the EUR/USD towards 1.1400. All the best!

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Technical Analysis

BTC/USD Analysis – January 21, 2022

Bitcoin Price Prediction

The BTC/USD closed at $40,740.0 after reaching a high of $43,540.60 and a low of $40,572.0. BTC/USD has continued to fall and has reached its 10-day low. The leading cryptocurrency is finding it hard to maintain significant momentum and is moving sideways from the previous two weeks, mainly due to the absence of any substantial improvement. The newly elected mayor of New York City, Eric Adams, has stated that he received his first pay check in cryptocurrencies.

Adams stayed true to his promise to take his first salary check-in BTC and ETH. Adams had previously said that NYC is the centre of the world, and now he wants to make it the centre of cryptocurrency and other financial innovations. He said that being at the forefront of such innovation would create more jobs and improve the economy, but it would also provide an opportunity to host talent from all over the world.

On the other hand, Russia has proposed a full ban on cryptocurrencies, including mining and the use of cryptocurrencies. The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) has called for an immediate stop to cryptocurrency trading. However, the increased illegal activities and potential risks of financial instability associated with the cryptocurrencies prompted Russian Bank to call for a ban. This announcement came right after the CBR displayed interest in securing commercial banks’ information regarding private money transfers. This news negatively impacted BTC/USD prices and dragged the leading crypto further lower.

The CEO of MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor, has said that he has no intentions of selling his firm’s $5 billion stash despite the 40% drop in the value of bitcoin. Saylor said he was a bitcoin bull and had no intention to alter the multi-billion-dollar BTC acquisition plan. MicroStrategy was the first publicly listed corporation in the US to acquire and hold BTC as part of its balance sheet in August 2020. It is estimated that the firm has about 124,391 BTC tokens worth about $5.2 Billion. The stash is continuously increasing, and the latest news that Saylor had no intention of selling BTC provided some support to the declining prices of BTC.

Furthermore, the rising strength of the US dollar on Thursday also added some negative pressure on BTC/USD as both have a negative correlation. For example, the US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback’s value against the basket of six major currencies, rose to 95.79. The dollar gathered its strength partly due to its safe-haven status and partly due to rising hopes of a rate hike. The rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine raised uncertainty in the market and supported the US dollar, ultimately dragging BTC/USD to the downside.

BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance
39694.4 42663.0
38648.9 44586.1
36725.9 45631.6
Pivot Point: 41617.5

BTC/USD – Technical Outlook

Bitcoin’s price increased its momentum to break through the $42,500 barrier. On the other hand, BTC struggled to gain momentum for a move above the $43,500 resistance zone. Before the bears appeared, a high near $43,497 was formed.

As a result, the price fell below the $42,000 support level and the 100 hourly simple moving average once more. Moreover, on the hourly timeframe of the BTC/USD pair, there was a break below a primary bullish trend line with support near $42,000.

The first significant support is seen near $39,200. A break below the $39,200 support level could trigger another considerable decline. The next major support is near $38,500, below which the price could fall as low as $38,000. All the best!

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Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Analysis – January 20, 2022

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair closed at $1.1341 after hitting a high of $1.1358 and a low of $1.1318. The EUR/USD reversed course and surged on Wednesday after breaking its 3-day bearish streak. The reversal could be attributed to the declining US dollar prices on Wednesday. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback value against half a dozen currencies of major economies, fell to 95.49 levels. The US dollar was facing pressure ahead of the US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting next week. Investors are expecting any information about the rate hike timing in the upcoming meetings on January 25 and 26.

On the data front, at 12:00 GMT, the German Final CPI remained flat at 0.5%, as expected. At 14:00 GMT, the current account also surged to 23.6B against the projected 20.3B, supporting the euro and pushing EUR/USD higher. On the other hand, from the US side, at 02:00 GMT, the TIC Long-Term Purchases rose to 137.4B against the anticipated 37.6B and supported the US dollar. At 18:30 GMT, the Building Permits rose to 1.87M against the forecasted 1.71M and supported the US dollar. The Housing Starts also surged to 1.70M against the estimated 1.65M and supported the US dollar. The favourable data from the US kept the gains in EUR/USD pair limited for the session.

The gain in the EUR/USD pair was also caped by the prevailing risk-off market sentiment, driven by the increased tensions surrounding Ukraine. The White House has warned Russia that it was ready to attack Ukraine as its troops have been built on the borderline. The US and European countries and Ukraine showed concerns over the potential threat of attack, which Russia has denied lately despite having troops on the borders.

These geopolitical tensions added to the safe-haven appeal and weighed on risk-related currencies like the euro, which capped further gains in the EUR/USD pair. Meanwhile, market participants anticipated the release of the ECB meeting accounts, which would provide hints on how to reduce stimulus and rate hikes.

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Daily Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.1320 1.1360
1.1300 1.1378
1.1281 1.1399
Pivot Point: 1.1339

EUR/USD – Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD appears to have gained support at 1.1320, in which the four-hour chart’s 200-period SMA is positioned. However, the latest recovery seems to be a technical corrective rather than a reversal, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) still below 40. If a four-hour candle closes below 1.1320, further losses are possible toward 1.1300 (psychological level) and 1.1270. Therefore, the support level of 1.1300 is in highlights.

On the upside, the initial barrier remains at 1.1350 (100-period SMA, Fibonacci 61.8 percent retracement), followed by 1.1380 (Fibonacci 50 percent retracement). The break above 1.1380 exposes the EUR/USD towards 1.1400. (Fibonacci 38.2 percent retracement).

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Technical Analysis

GOLD Analysis – January 20, 2022

Gold’s Daily Price Analysis

Gold prices were closed at $1839.15 after hitting a high of $1843.80 and a low of $1809.45. On Wednesday, gold reversed course and surged to its highest level since November 22nd. On Wednesday, gold posted its best daily gain in more than three months as the US dollar fell and the precious metal began to gain traction as a result of increased safe-haven appeal driven by increased geopolitical tensions surrounding Ukraine.

The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, broke its 3-day bullish streak and dropped on Wednesday to as low as 95.49. Treasury yields on the benchmark 10-year note reached their highest level since January 2020, at 1.90 percent, before falling back to 1.85%, triggering a sell-off that provided some support to the precious metal.

The yellow metal gained on its safe-haven bets on the back of increased tensions surrounding Ukraine. On Tuesday, the White House warned that Russia was ready to attack Ukraine at any point. This statement came before a meeting between the top US and Russian diplomats. Ukraine, the US, and European countries have raised deep concerns over Russia’s plans to build on the border, despite repeated denials from Moscow that an invasion was planned. The rising tensions surrounding the border between Russia and Ukraine increased the safe-haven appeal and pushed gold higher in the market.

At 02:00 GMT, the TIC Long-Term Purchases surged to 137.4B against the forecasted 37.6B and supported the US dollar on the data front. At 18:30 GMT, building permits had risen to 1.87 million from 1.71 million expected, bolstering the US dollar. Housing starts increased to 1.70 million, exceeding the 1.65 million predicted, bolstering the US dollar. All the data from the US came in favour of the dollar, but it failed to stop precious metal gains on Wednesday.

Recently, gold has been under pressure amid hopes that the US Federal Reserve will increase interest rates 3–4 times this year. The Federal Reserve of the United States will hold a policy meeting next week, and market participants were looking for clues about a rate hike timeline. This thing was keeping the US dollar higher in the market. However, on Wednesday, after the warning from the White House that Russia could attack Ukraine, the whole market mood turned negative. The risk-off market sentiment pushed gold higher due to its safe-haven status.

GOLD Intraday Technical Level

Support Resistance
1817.80 1852.15
1796.45 1865.15
1783.45 1886.50
Pivot Point: 1830.80

GOLD – Technical Outlook

On Thursday, the yellow metal gold (XAU/USD) was trading at the 1,840 mark with a strong bullish bias. It has broken through a big triple top resistance level of 1,829 and is on its way to the next target mark of 1,850. On the upside, the next key resistance for the XAU/USD might be found at the 1,865 mark. On the downside, support remains near the 1,829 mark, and a break of this level exposes gold to 1,809. Gold’s bullish bias remains strong above the 1,829 level. All the best!

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Technical Analysis

BTC/USD Analysis – January 20, 2022

Bitcoin Price Prediction

The BTC/USD was closed at $41,676.0 after placing a high of $42,581.20 and a low of $41,180.0. BTC/USD continued its consolidated momentum and turned red again. It has been 12 days since BTC/USD was moved sideways and stuck in a range of $41,000 -$42,000. The European Securities and Markets Authority Vice-Chair has raised concerns over the growing use of renewable energy for bitcoin mining. Erik Thedeen warned that cryptocurrencies could threaten climate change goals, and bitcoin mining has become a national issue. He called upon the regulators in Europe to take special exception to proof-of-work mining, which is primarily used by bitcoin. He called proof-of-stake a better and more energy-efficient alternative and stressed the need to shift the industry to more efficient technology.

The bitcoin network’s energy usage was one of the most controversial topics in 2021, which grabbed the attention of Elon Musk, Jack Dorsey, and Michael Saylor. Tesla ended the bitcoin payment option after discovering the negative impact the bitcoin network’s energy usage has on the environment.

According to Thedeen, the financial industry and many large institutions are involved in cryptocurrency markets and claim environmental, social, and governance responsibilities. He called on European authorities to ban proof-of-work mining activities and said that proof-of-stake mining should be encouraged. This news added negative pressure on Bitcoin prices as the leading currency is based on proof-of-work consensus.

Meanwhile, the Pakistani bank Alfalah has reportedly started sending SMS alerts to its customers, asking them to avoid cryptocurrency transactions using its banking channels. This action by Bank Alfalah came shortly after the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the country’s central bank, presented a statement to the Sindh High Court recommending a complete ban on cryptocurrencies. Currently, the law and finance ministries of the country are reviewing the report from SBP to decide on the legal structure of cryptocurrencies. This news also had a negative impact on the whole cryptocurrency market and added to the further loss in BTC/USD prices.

On the other hand, the Tahini Restaurant, a Canada-based Middle Eastern restaurant chain, which decided to convert its savings into Bitcoin in August 2020, has reported earnings of 300% gains. During the pandemic and lockdowns, when restaurants and the leisure industry faced shutdown, the restaurant owners Aly and Omar Hamam and their cousin Ahmed decided to choose a better alternative to saving cash and chose Bitcoin for it. At that time, the price of a crypto asset was roughly $12,000.

According to Aly, converting their savings into BTC in August resulted in over 300% gains and protected them against high inflation. It worked just as they intended it to. The owners were proud of their decision as the investment allowed them to expand their business from three restaurant locations to nine when most in the industry were facing financial difficulties. They have planned to increase the number to 25 by 2022. This report added some support to the declining price of BTC/USD on Wednesday.

BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance
41043.6 42444.8
40411.2 43213.6
39642.5 43846.0
Pivot Point: 41812.4

BTC/USD – Technical Outlook

Bitcoin’s price struggled to begin a meaningful recovery wave and fell below $42,000 for a lengthy period. BTC has even breached the $41,500 support level and is now trading underneath the 100 hourly SMA (simple moving average).
The price has now corrected higher after forming a low near $41,159. The price rose just above the $41,800 resistance level. The price surpassed the 23.6 percent Fib retracement mark of the primary fall from the $43,800 swing high to the $41,159 low.

The next significant barrier is near $43,000, beyond which the bulls may try for a test of $43,500. Any more increases may require a challenge of the $44,500 resistance level. If Bitcoin does not begin a new upward trend above $42,500, it may start a new downward trend. On the downside, there is immediate support near $41,600.

The first significant support is evident at about $41,200. A breach underneath the $41,200 support level could expose another dip. The next key support is around $40,500, beyond which the price exposes towards the $40,000 mark. All the best!

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Technical Analysis

GOLD Analysis – January 17, 2022

Gold’s Daily Price Analysis

Throughout Monday’s Asian trading session, the precious metal price extended its early-day winning streak and received some more bids around $1,820 on risk-off market sentiment that tends to support safe-haven assets like gold. However, concerns about the coronavirus and a Fed rate hike weighed on the market’s pessimistic outlook.

The S&P 500 futures declined 0.20 percent intraday as bond moves were restrained in the United States owing to a bank holiday. It’s worth noting that US 10-year interest rates rose 8.4 basis points (bps) on Friday, breaking a four-day downward trend and ending at 1.793 percent. The gold price, XAU/USD, is trading near Friday’s close on Monday’s open. Markets reacted defensively to disappointing US GDP data for December, weighing on Asian shares.

Meanwhile, the US dollar fell in Asia on Monday after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) unexpectedly cut its benchmark interest rate. The US dollar’s losses were exacerbated by previously revealed weak US statistics, which has a negative impact on the US economy and adds to currency losses. As a result, a weaker US dollar was regarded as one of the major causes driving XAU/USD prices upward.

The safe-haven metal is currently trading at 1,819.07 and stabilizing in the band of 1,813.20 – 1,820.28. Moving on, the absence of important data/events from the United States for the day prompts investors to focus on China’s GDP and other critical indicators for immediate direction.

Despite the lack of noteworthy data/events from the United States for the day, the market’s trading mood failed to reverse its bad overnight performance and remained in the red for the day. However, the coronavirus and the Fed rate move affected the market’s trading attitude. After experiencing more than 20,000 daily infections for the third day in a row, China’s Beijing tightens entry limits, while Japan proposes increased virus-related restrictions for Tokyo.

On the other hand, Australia is witnessing its fourth consecutive day of easy daily COVID infections, with the latest tally estimated to be about 65,000. It’s worth mentioning that New South Wales (NSW), Australia’s most populous state, had the highest number of daily COVID-related deaths on Friday, with 29, which has since reduced to 17 cases. During his last week’s Senate Banking Committee hearing, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell claimed that the US economy is ready to begin tightening monetary policy.

Other Fed officials have stated that rates will almost certainly be hiked in March 2022. The Fed will make its next policy decision on January 25-26, while the Bank of England will decide on February 3. Concerns over the Fed’s rate hike increased after Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly and New York Fed President John Williams on Friday.

The XAU/USD price jumped due to mixed data, coronavirus fears, and buzz about faster Fed rate hikes, owing mostly to its risk barometer status. Furthermore, the market’s trading sentiment losses were bolstered further by December’s weak US economic statistics, which might greatly help the gold price if China disappoints in today’s numbers.

In terms of facts, retail sales in the United States declined 1.9 percent year on year, while sales in the control group fell 3.1 percent. According to ANZ Bank analysts, the numbers indicate that the highest inflation in 40 years influences consumer behaviour, which may easily extend into the first quarter when child tax benefits expire. As a result, manufacturing decreased by 0.3 percent year on year, while industrial production decreased by 0.1 percent.

Analysts at ANZ Bank believe that “a 1.3 percent decrease in auto vehicles and parts led manufacturing contraction.” As a result, S&P 500 futures dropped 0.20 percent intraday, while US 10-year Treasury futures dropped even more. As a result of the overall negative tone in the equities markets, safe-haven gold profited. Moving forward, the absence of critical data or events from the United States prompts investors to focus on China’s GDP and other critical indicators for immediate direction. Finally, virus updates and concerns about Fed rate hikes have emerged as the most crucial drivers.

GOLD Intraday Technical Level

Support Resistance
1812.11 1828.41
1803.83 1836.43
1795.81 1844.71
Pivot Point: 1820.13

GOLD – Technical Outlook

On Monday, gold is trading at $1,821, with a bullish bias, after breaching the resistance level of $1,815. This level serves as a support level for gold. Further to the upside, the next resistance level is at 1,832, and a break over this might push the gold price up to the 1,845 level. On the downside, support is still around 1,820, and a break below this level might extend the selling trend to the 1,804 level. All the best!

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Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Analysis – January 17, 2022

Daily Price Outlook

During a dull session early Monday morning in Europe, the EUR/USD seesawed around an intraday high of 1.1420. The main currency had lost the most in two weeks the day before, owing to broad US dollar advances, but a US banking holiday and mixed fears appear to have hampered the pair sellers after that. The absence of significant data/events puts EUR/USD traders to the test.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) failed to continue the previous day’s U-turn from the lowest levels since November 10, falling 0.02 percent intraday to 95.14. The US dollar’s losses were exacerbated further by previously revealed weak US statistics, which harm the US economy and contribute to currency losses. As a result, a weakening US dollar was viewed as one of the primary drivers of higher EUR/USD rates.

The EUR/USD currency pair is trading at the 1.1419 level and consolidating in the range between 1.1400 and 1.1423. Despite the lack of important data/events from the US for the day, the market’s trading mood did not improve from its dismal overnight performance, and trades stayed in the red for the day. On the other hand, the market reacted to concerns about the coronavirus and a Fed rate hike. China’s Beijing tightens entry regulations after experiencing more than 20,000 daily infections for the third day in a row, while Japan contemplates heightened virus-related constraints for Tokyo. On the other hand, Australia is in the midst of its fourth day of easy daily COVID infections, with a current total of around 65,000.

During a hearing before the Senate Banking Committee last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the US economy is ready to begin tightening monetary policy. According to other Fed members, interest rates will most likely be hiked in March 2022. The Fed will make its next policy decision on January 25-26, while the Bank of England will decide on February 3. Concerns about the Fed’s rate hike grew even stronger after Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly and New York Fed President John Williams on Friday. As a result of the speculation about faster Fed rate hikes, the EUR/USD price rose.

Furthermore, the market’s losses were bolstered by weak US economic statistics for December, which might help EUR/USD prices even more by weakening the US dollar. As a result, retail sales in the United States fell 1.9 percent year on year, while sales in the comparison group fell 3.1 percent. “The results suggest that the highest inflation in 40 years is influencing consumer behaviour,” ANZ Bank analysts explained. “This may easily extend into the first quarter when the expiration of child tax credits would also weigh.” In addition, manufacturing fell 0.3 percent from the previous year. In contrast, industrial production fell 0.1 percent year on year. According to ANZ Bank analysts, “a 1.3 percent decline in auto vehicles and parts led to manufacturing weakness.”

ECB President Christine Lagarde, on the other hand, reaffirmed the regional central bank’s willingness to maintain price stability. Comments like “monetary accommodation are still needed for inflation to stabilize at the 2.0 percent objective over the medium term,” however, appear to have given the Fed the upper hand in the ECB vs. Fed debate.

German Bund yields will be watched for clarity despite the lack of important data or events. For instance, the EUR/USD may remain under pressure due to higher bund yields, but the risk catalyst should be monitored for new momentum. Recently, virus numbers in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Europe have declined from record highs, calming Omicron worries and putting a floor under pair pricing. In addition, virus updates and Fed rate hike anxieties have become the most important factors.

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Daily Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.1405 1.1426
1.1391 1.1435
1.1370 1.1456
Pivot Point: 1.1413

EUR/USD – Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD pair reversed course after reaching its highest level since November 11 the day before. The drop could be attributed to Thursday’s Doji candlestick pattern underneath the 100-day EMA, and the RSI’s retreat. As a result, the EUR/USD pair’s recent weakness is anticipated to extend into 1.1380, where the 50-day EMA and the resistance-turned-support line from September 03 meet. The repeated high marked since November 16 have also added to the strength of the 1.1380 support. Alternatively, the EUR/USD pair’s short-term comeback is guarded by the 100-day EMA level of 1.1483 and the 1.1500 level. All the best!

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Technical Analysis

BTC/USD Analysis – January 17, 2022

Bitcoin Price Prediction

Bitcoin price has rebounded from a critical psychological level, indicating a return of retail interest. The recent rise lays the groundwork for a short-term foundation, allowing BTC to begin a broader leg-up. Surprisingly, on-chain data correlate with the technical bullish view. However, an upswing currently appears to be unavoidable for BTC and, by extension, the larger ecosystem.

Bitcoin has spent the week forming a particularly terrible bear trap based on a head-and-shoulders pattern. The price of Ethereum has retreated after the recent gain, but it has found support and shown some signs of buyers returning to continue the upward trend. As Ripple seeks a 20% raise, the XRP price has established an almost identical reversal scenario to Ethereum. Furthermore, the market’s trading sentiment losses were further bolstered by the disappointing US economic data for December, which could further support the gold price, especially should China disappoint in today’s numbers.

On the data front, retail sales in the United States fell 1.9 percent on a year-over-year basis, with sales in the control group down 3.1 percent. ANZ Bank analysts explained that the figures imply that the biggest inflation in 40 years is affecting consumer behaviour, and this might easily extend into the first quarter when the expiration of child tax credits will also weigh. As a result, manufacturing fell by 0.3 percent year on year, while industrial production fell by 0.1 percent. According to ANZ Bank analysts, “a 1.3 percent reduction in auto vehicles and parts drove manufacturing weakness.” As a result, S&P 500 futures fell 0.20 percent intraday, while US 10-year Treasury futures fell further. Thus, safe-haven gold benefited from a generally negative tone in the equity markets. On the flip side, the weakness of the US dollar may be responsible for gold’s continued gains.

On Monday morning, the dollar fell lower in Asia after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced a surprise benchmark cut. Investors are also anticipating the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement in January and the timing of interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, the losses in the US dollar were also bolstered by the poor US economic data, which raised doubts over the US economy’s growth. However, the US dollar’s losses may be short-lived as the hawkish interest rate bolstered the dollar even as the impetus for gains began to fade. “National Australia Bank’s (OTC: NABZY) head of foreign exchange strategy, Ray Attrill, said that Friday’s move implies to me that the interest rate motive for dollar strength is still alive and well. It may not necessarily return to push the dollar to new highs, but “we’ve had a hawkish twist out of every Fed meeting since June 2021.

BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance
41788.5 43881.2
41014.9 45200.3
39695.7 45973.9
Pivot Point: 43107.6

BTC/USD – Technical Outlook

Bitcoin’s price continued to rise beyond the $44,000 resistance level. BTC even surpassed the $44,200 mark before being confronted by sellers. A high was made near $44,400, and the price began to fall again. There was a clear move below $43,500 and $43,200. The price even fell below the $42,500 support level and came dangerously close to the 100 hourly simple moving average. Before the price began to rise, a bottom was made at about $41,800. It reached a high of $43,791 and is now consolidating. The bitcoin price is currently trading below $43,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

There is immediate support near the 50 percent Fib retracement level of the recent advance from the $41,800 swing low to the $43,791 high. On the hourly timeframe of the BTC/USD pair, a significant contracting triangle is emerging with resistance near $43,200.

On the upside, an early resistance level is near $43,200. The next significant resistance is located near the $43,500 level. A decisive rise above $43,500 might push the price towards the $44,000 resistance level. Any more increases may need a challenge of the $44,200 resistance level. The next significant stumbling block is around $45,000.

If Bitcoin does not begin a new upward trend over $43,500, it may begin a new downward trend. On the downside, there is immediate support near $42,800. The first significant support is evident at about $42,500. It is approaching the 61.8 percent Fib retracement line of the latest rise from the $41,800 swing low to the $43,791 high. If the price falls below the $42,500 support zone, it may move towards the $41,800 barrier.

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Technical Analysis

GOLD Analysis – January 14, 2022

Gold’s Daily Price Analysis

Gold prices ended the day at $1820.40, with a high of $1828.15 and a low of $1811.85. Despite falling US Treasury yields and a weak US currency, gold fell for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, extended its fall and fell for the third straight day to 94.66, its three-month low. In the United States, the yield on the benchmark 10-year note fell to 1.69 percent, the lowest in six days.

On the statistics front, the Federal Budget Balance fell to-21.3 billion at 00:00 GMT, versus an anticipated 5.8 billion, supporting the US dollar. The PPI had also fallen to 0.2 percent at 18:30 GMT, versus the expected 0.4 percent, weighing on the US dollar. As expected, the core PPI remained unchanged at 0.5 percent. Unemployment claims increased to 230K from 199K predicted, weighing on the US dollar. The majority of data from the United States was unfavourable, which capped additional losses in gold prices.

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard told Congress that the central bank’s most essential duty was to control inflation. Ms. Brainard raised the prospect of rate hikes by emphasising the central bank’s efforts to terminate its asset-buying stimulus programme by March.

According to her, the Fed’s rate-setting committee has advocated several rate hikes this year, but only if asset purchases are stopped as soon as possible. She stated that bottlenecks and other supply limitations contributed to considerably higher energy and food costs, but she added that the Fed was willing to raise interest rates to cool demand across the economy as needed to control inflation. She stated that the Fed possesses a powerful tool that will be used to reduce inflation over time. She also forecasted that the increased inflation rate would continue for the next couple of quarters. Ms. Brainard’s comments put more downward pressure on precious metals since increased inflation tends to increase demand for safe-haven assets.

Furthermore, the World Health Organization has added two more medications to its list of recommended coronavirus treatments, owing to the rapid spread of the Omicron type, which has increased the number of cases worldwide. Baricitinib was strongly recommended by agency experts for severe and critical COVID-19. The experts also issued a conditional recommendation for another medicine called Sotroviman for people with non-severe coronavirus infections but a significant risk of hospitalization. The rapid spread of the pandemic worldwide prompted the WHO to prescribe new treatments. The suggestion of new treatments boosted risk-on-market sentiment and pulled gold down even lower.

GOLD Intraday Technical Level

Support Resistance
1812.11 1828.41
1803.83 1836.43
1795.81 1844.71
Pivot Point: 1820.13

GOLD – Technical Outlook

Gold is trading at $1,826, with a strong positive bias, after breaching the resistance level of $1,815. This level serves as a support level for gold. Further to the upside, the next resistance level is at 1,832, and a break over this might push the gold price up to the 1,845 level. On the downside, support is still around 1,820, and a break below this level might extend the selling trend to the 1,804 level. All the best!

Categories
Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Analysis – January 14, 2022

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD closed at $1.1453 after hitting a high of $1.1482 and a low of $1.1435. The EUR/USD surged for the third consecutive session on Thursday and reached its highest since November 11th, amid the declining price of the US dollar. The greenback was weak across the board after the release of the disappointing PPI report. Furthermore, the comments from Fed governor Lael Brainard also suggested that the central bank was ready to increase interest rates this year after it terminated asset purchases in March. These comments should have supported the US dollar, but as markets had already priced in the potential rate hike, the greenback remained under pressure and, hence, EUR/USD moved higher for the day.

The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback’s value against the basket of half a dozen currencies from major economies, fell below the 95 level at 94.66, which added strength to the riskier currency pair EUR/USD. The US Treasury yields were also lower on Thursday at 1.69%, which affected the dollar and ultimately pushed the EUR/USD pair higher.

At 14:00 GMT, Italian industrial production surged to 1.9%, against the forecasted 0.4%, and supported the single currency euro, adding gains in EUR/USD. From the US side, at 00:00 GMT, the Federal Budget Balance fell to-21.3B against the projected 5.8B and supported the US dollar. At 18:30 GMT, the PPI also declined to 0.2%, against the forecasted 0.4% and weighed on the US dollar. The core PPI remained flat with projections of 0.5%. Unemployment claims increased to 230K from an estimated 199K, weighing on the US dollar. The US data remained unfavourable on Thursday and supported the upward momentum of EUR/USD.

Meanwhile, European Medicines Agency (EMA) experts have stated that the spread of the Omicron variant is pushing coronavirus towards becoming an endemic disease that humanity can live with, though it remains a pandemic for the time being. Spain has decided to treat COVID-19 as the flu and has suggested its people live with it. However, in response to this, the World Health Organization (WHO) has said that it was too soon to treat coronavirus like flu as Omicron was spreading fast worldwide. The WHO has said that the omicron variant of coronavirus was on track to infect more than half of Europeans, but it should not yet be seen as a flu-like endemic illness. WHO reported that Europe saw more than 7 million new cases in the first week of 2022.

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Daily Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.1432 1.1479
1.1409 1.1505
1.1384 1.1527
Pivot Point: 1.1457

EUR/USD – Technical Outlook

Following US inflation numbers, the EUR/USD pair advances past the stated high as the greenback weakens across the board. The pair has advanced beyond 1.1385, the 38.2 percent retracement of the 1.1691/1.1185 drop, and the December monthly high, implying that a positive continuation could be extended in the coming sessions if it can sustain gains at this level.
The pair is climbing over a modestly bullish 20 SMA daily, while technical indicators are gathering strength. The 100 SMA maintains its bearish slope near the 61.8 percent retracement of the previous decline at 1.1500, which might be a bullish target.

The 4-hour chart shows that the pair defied 1.1400 while developing well above bullish moving averages, indicating a strong bullish potential. Meanwhile, technical indicators have risen sharply inside positive ranges, approaching overbought territory. All the best!