Category: Technical Analysis

ECB Monetary Policy Decision in Highlights

The EUR/USD pair consolidates in a narrow trading range of 1.1800 – 1.1780 level on Thursday. Today, the investor’s major focus will remain on the ECB policy decision. Yesterday, the calendar wasn’t offering any major economic event, as the E.U. won’t publish relevant data. However, the E.U. issued weekly MBA Mortgage Applications. However, on Thursday, the calendar will have significant events like ECB (European Central Bank) monetary policy decisions.

On Thursday, European Central Bank executives will describe how their fresh inflation aim concerns their plans for monetary policy in the future. The officials from ECB will have to adjust their language on the main refinancing rate, asset purchases, and other means for an updated strategy acknowledged earlier this month.

This updated strategy now aims for inflation of 2% and admits that it may momentarily run higher. The review will cover the way for a crucial debate in September on whether and how to repeal emergency bond-buying.

The backcloth is a resurgent euro-area economy that allows abrupt price hikes but also significant uncertainty. Mounting coronavirus cases are helping some nations to re-tighten travel curbs, and the influence of other hazards, such as Germany’s disastrous floods, is still unknown. ECB officials say inflation pressures will subside and repeatedly caution against relaxing stimulus too soon.

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance
1.1762 1.1822
1.1733 1.1853
1.1702 1.1882
Pivot Point: 1.1793

EUR/USD – Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD pair consolidates in a narrow trading range of 1.1800 – 1.1780 level on Thursday. Investors seem to feel hesitant before the release of the ECB monetary policy decision as this has the potential to drive trendy moves in the market. On the hourly chart, the direct currency pair EUR/USD has crossed above 50 SMA (simple moving average), which’s now supporting the pair at the 1.1785 level.

At the same time, the triple top pattern is providing resistance at 1.1802 level. A bullish breakout of 1.1802 level can expose the EUR/USD price towards the next resistance level of 1.1825. At the same time, the support continues to hold at 1.1786. a breakout of 1.1786 support level exposes the EUR/USD price towards the 1.1760 level today. Let’s wait for the ECB policy decision as to the trend heavily relay on the decision. All the best!

Bitcoin Bounce off -32K Next Resistance

The BTC/USD was closed at $31767.0 after placing a high of $32804.0 and a low of $29545.0. After falling for two consecutive sessions, BTC/USD recovered on Wednesday as it moved upward and reversed its momentum. On Wednesday, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that the company would likely start re-accepting bitcoin for its vehicle purchases as the cryptocurrency looked a lot more environmentally friendly. According to Musk, bitcoin was shifting more towards renewable energy, and many of the heavy-duty coal plants used in China have been shut down.
Musk added that he wanted to confirm that the renewable energy usage was most likely at or above 50% for bitcoin mining purposes. There was a trend towards increasing that number to approve Tesla for resuming the acceptance of bitcoin against its vehicle sale.

In May, the CEO of Tesla announced on Twitter that the company was suspending the vehicle purchases made with bitcoin out of concern over the rapidly increasing use of coal and fossil fuels for bitcoin mining. Since then, Beijing started cracking down on crypto and expelled the crypto miners from the country, who have reportedly started their practice elsewhere.

According to the latest data from Cambridge University, many miners have headed to the U.S., which has now become the second-biggest destination for the world’s bitcoin miners. Musk said that long-term renewable energy would be the cheapest energy; however, it could not be achieved overnight. He continued that as long as there is a conscious and determined real effort from the mining community to move towards renewables, Tesla would support the bitcoin. These comments from Elon Musk added in the value of BTC/USD, and the cryptocurrency gained about 8% in the value.
Meanwhile, during the B-Word webinar on Wednesday, the CEO of Square, Jack Dorsey, had high hopes for the digital asset and aspired to the cryptocurrency bitcoin. He said that he hoped that bitcoin create world peace or help in creating world peace. These positive comments from big tech celebrities added to bitcoin’s value and supported its surge on Wednesday.

However, some investors also believed that the jump in BTC/USD on Wednesday was also because of the so-called “buy the dip” opportunity. Many institutional investors, along with others, were waiting for a plunge in its value so that they can enter the market to book profits while it increases in value. Furthermore, the declining prices of the U.S. dollar on the day also added extra upward pressure on BTC/USD as both have a negative correlation. The U.S. Dollar Index that measures the greenback value against the basket of six major currencies fell to 92.73 from its daily high of 93.19 on Wednesday as risk-off market sentiment eased a little.

BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance
29073.0 30807.0
28340.0 31808.0
27339.0 32541.0
Pivot Point: 30074.0

BTC/USD – Technical Outlook

The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, has bounced off above 29,350 level to trade at 32,070 level. On Thursday, the BTC/USD pair is trading in a descending triangle pattern that extends resistance at 32,830 levels along with a support level of 29,380.

Bitcoin has formed a triple bottom level at 29,380 level, and the closing of candles above this level supports a bullish bias. Since the BTC/USD has closed a bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart, the bullish power is getting dominant. In addition to this, the 4-hour chart’s MACD and 50 EMA are exhibiting a bullish crossover, suggesting buyers are taking control.

Therefore, the bullish breakout of 32,850 level exposes the Bitcoin price towards 34,650 (daily 50 EMA) resistance level. All the best!

Euro Bounce-off Over Double Bottom 1.1760

The EUR/USD plunged sharply to test the support level of 1,1764 but reversed right after to trade at 1.1780. The E.U. announced the May Current Account on the data front, which reported a surplus of €11.7 billion, missing the market’s forecast. The U.S. announced June Building Permits, which declined 5.1%, while Housing Starts surged 6.3%.

On Wednesday, the calendar isn’t offering any major economic event, as the E.U. won’t publish relevant data. However, the E.U. will publish weekly MBA Mortgage Applications. The calendar will have nothing significant to offer until next Thursday, when the ECB (European Central Bank) will publish its monetary policy decision.

The risk-off market sentiment spurred by the growing number of coronavirus cases amid the delta variant of coronavirus pressed riskier assets. It held the entire global stock market under stress. The risky securities like bonds, stocks, and yields remain depressed as the growing number of cases globally could reduce the global economic revival.

Many nations striving to fight the swift spread of coronavirus were required to re-inflict lockdown measures as the Delta variant made cases climb at a dangerous level. The WHO has also advised that the delta variant was now the dominant strain globally. According to U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the cases in the U.S. were up by 70% last week, and the deaths were 26%, with outbreaks occurring in parts of the country with low vaccination rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) sank to its lowest adjacent with the U.S. Treasury Yields on benchmark 10-year note that extended its drop for 5th consecutive session and fell to its weakest in 6 months at 1.176%. The risk-off market sentiment appended strength to the safe-haven U.S. dollar that eventually reached beyond 93 handles, its highest in 4-months, and added pressure on the currency pair EUR/USD. Thus, the single currency Euro is trading bearish against the U.S. dollar.

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance
1.1762 1.1822
1.1733 1.1853
1.1702 1.1882
Pivot Point: 1.1793

EUR/USD – Technical Outlook

The technical front of the EUR/USD pair hasn’t changed a lot as the pair continues to trade at the 1.1780 level, bouncing off the support level of 1.1760 level. The single currency Euro has crossed below 50 SMA (simple moving average) on the 4-hourly timeframe. This 50 SMA continues to extend resistance at the 1.1820 mark. The closing of candles beneath this mark demonstrates a bearish trend in the EUR/USD currency pair.

On the lower side, the EUR/USD’s support stays at the 1.1765 mark that’s dispensed by a double bottom pattern. Violation of this double bottom pattern can expose the EUR/USD towards the 1.1735 support level. All the best!

Bitcoin Set to Bounce off Above $29,300

The BTC/USD was closed at $29914.0 after placing a high of $31075.0 and a low of $29341.0. bitcoin extended its loss and reached below the $30,000 level for the first time in four weeks as the panic selling increased. The sudden drop in bitcoin prices led some analysts to believe that it was the time that price of BTC will fall further. This type of mindset added weight to BTC/USD prices on Monday, and the cryptocurrency dropped below its crucial support level of $30,000.

Meanwhile, the former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal explained the history behind his investment in cryptocurrency. He said that he had invested 55% of his wealth in Ethereum, and he also called this move the biggest, clearest bet of all. Pal was bearish on fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar as he believes that they were continuously declining against assets like real estate, stocks, and crypto.

On the other hand, the JP Morgan Asset & Wealth Management CEO, Mary Callahan Erdoes said that the clients of banking giants see the bitcoin as an asset class and wanted to invest in it. In April, JP Morgan announced that it had plans to allow wealthy clients to invest in bitcoin through a forthcoming managed fund. By doing so, JP Morgan will become the second-largest bank to offer access to bitcoin, followed by Morgan Stanley, which is currently at first rank.

Furthermore, the CEO of Osprey Funds, an issuer of over-the-counter Bitcoin trust OBTC, said that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has many things on its plate in 2021 under the leadership of Gary Gensler that a BTC ETF approval was unlikely to cut. He expected the fund might get approval in 2022 at the earliest but not in 2021. These comments also weighed on BTC/USD and added loss in its prices.

Additionally, the decline in BTC/USD could also be attributed to the rising prices of the U.S. dollar. The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) rose to its highest level since 28th March at 93.17 level and weighed heavily on BTC/USD as both share a negative correlation.

The U.S. dollar was strong across the board amid the rising risk-off market sentiment due to the concerns regarding the fast spread of the Delta variant of coronavirus. The most contagious and dominant variant of the coronavirus is said to be detected in more than 100 countries throughout the globe. Europe has reached a milestone of 50 million coronavirus cases from a region throughout the world. The U.S. officials reported that the new daily coronavirus cases now consist of about 80% of cases infected by delta variants.

The rising tensions around the globe regarding prospects of slow economic recovery added to the risk-off market sentiment, and hence, riskier assets, including yields, stocks, and cryptocurrencies, suffered. Whereas, safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar gained attraction and dragged BTC/USD further below the $30,000 level and triggered a massive sell-off by breaking the key support level.

BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance
30266.0 31676.0
29685.0 32505.0
28856.0 33086.0
Pivot Point: 31095.0

BTC/USD – Technical Outlook

The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, has traded dramatically bearish at 29,387 levels amid stronger dollar and sell-off in the crypto market. At the moment, the BTC/USD is trading at 29,935 level, having bounced off over 29,385 support level.

On the 4 hour timeframe, Bitcoin has closed series of Doji and Shooting start candles followed by a dramatic bearish trend. Such a pattern demonstrates that sellers are getting exhausted, and bulls may take over the market.

Thus, there’s strong potential for bullish retracement. The BTC/USD is heading north to complete 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 30,150 level. At the same time, the support continues to hold around 29,385 levels. Bullish crossover of 38.2% Fibonacci level can expose Bitcoin price towards 61.8% Fibo levels of $30,380. All the best!

50 SMA Extends Resistance

The EUR/USD was closed at $1.1792 after placing a high of $1.1814 and a low of $1.1803. EUR/USD extended its decline and reached its lowest since April 4 amid the prevailing risk-off market sentiment along with the strength of the U.S. dollar.

The risk-off market sentiment driven by the rising number of coronavirus cases due to the delta variant of coronavirus weighed on riskier assets on Monday. It kept the entire global stock market under pressure. The risky assets like stocks, bonds, and yields remain depressed on Monday as the rising number of cases worldwide could slow down the global economic recovery.

Many countries struggling to fight the fast spread of coronavirus were forced to re-impose lockdown measures as the Delta variant was causing cases to rise at an alarming level. The WHO has also warned that the delta variant was now the dominant strain worldwide. According to U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the cases in the U.S. were up by 70% last week, and the deaths were 26%, with outbreaks occurring in parts of the country with low vaccination rates.

The CDC data suggested that the seven-day-average number of daily cases was more than 26,000, more than twice the number in June around 11,000. The renewed economic recovery concerns added safe-haven appeal in the market that pushed the U.S. dollar higher and riskier assets lower on Monday.

Since October on Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped to its lowest along with the U.S. Treasury Yields on benchmark 10-year note that continued its decline for 5th consecutive session and plunged to its lowest in 6 months at 1.176%. The risk-off market sentiment added strength to the safe-haven U.S. dollar that ultimately reached above 93 handles, its highest in 4-months, and added weight on the currency pair EUR/USD.

Meanwhile, Europe faced a new coronavirus infection wave as the cases increased and weighed on the single currency Euro. This weekend, Europeans faced last-minute travel restrictions as the U.K. and France re-imposed border restrictions to combat the rising number of infections that were threatening the plans to get life back to normal.

Over the weekend, France reported more than 12,500 new coronavirus cases, and it was the third day that the count came in above 10,000 level. This quick spread of the virus was attributed to the highly contagious Delta variant of COVID-19. The virus woes in Europe disturbed E.U. plans to open up for summer vacations and weighed on single currency Euro that dragged EUR/USD pair downwards.

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance
1.1762 1.1822
1.1733 1.1853
1.1702 1.1882
Pivot Point: 1.1793

EUR/USD – Technical Outlook

The direct currency pair EUR/USD is trading sharply bearish at 1.1785 level, violating the support level of 1.1795. Besides, the Euro has also crossed below 50 SMA (the simple moving average) on the hourly timeframe. This 50 SMS is placing resistance at 1.1800 level and formation of candles below this level, suggesting a bearish bias in the EUR/USD pair.
On the downside, the EUR/USD’s support level prevails at 1.1765 level that’s extended by a double bottom pattern. Breakout of this double bottom pattern can expose the EUR/USD towards 1.1735 support level. All the best!

Bitcoin Violates $30,000 Psychological Level

The BTC/USD was closed at $30,847.0 after placing a high of $31,924.0 and a low of $30,514.0. BTC/USD dropped on Monday and extended its loss to its lowest since June 26. Bitcoin fell to $30,000 for the first time since June that also dragged other digital coins lower as the leading crypto tends to drive the price of the whole market. On Monday, the CoinMarketCap data reported that about $98 billion was wiped off the entire cryptocurrency market in 24 hours.

The steep decline in bitcoin came in after a massive plunge in the global stock markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and other famous indexes had their worst day since last October on Monday. The decreasing price of stocks and risk assets could be attributed to the concerns of the quality and strength of the economic recovery. Broader risk assets, including Treasury Yields, also plunged on Monday. This, coupled with the recent bitcoin weakness, sent the crypto market further towards the downside.

Furthermore, last week, a group of Paraguayan lawmakers presented a Bitcoin bill in the National Congress. However, it turned out to be a very different proposal than what crypto followers were expecting. There no mentioning of making bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency as legal tender anywhere in the proposal; instead, the bill seeks to control and regulate cryptocurrency transactions and establish taxes. The law proposed that the Central Bank of Paraguay will be the comptroller of all entities related to cryptocurrencies.
The senator of the country, Fernando Silva Facetti, said that this was not a legal tender. Instead, this was a commodity, and the purpose of the law was to regulate and control the crypto industry, which was the base project.

On the other hand, the former prudent Bear Fund Manager David Tice warned about investing in bitcoin. He further said that in an environment of negative statements from central banks and regulators worldwide like the Bank of England, it was hazardous to hold bitcoin today.

He reiterated the comments from the Bank of England when in May, the governor of BOE, Andrew Bailey, said that cryptocurrencies were dangerous and had no intrinsic value. He also said that investors should put money in cryptocurrencies if they expect to lose it all. The extreme negative comments from BOE were also backed by Christine Lagarde, the president of ECB. Tice said that it would not be wise to hold bitcoin in such an environment, which weighed heavily on BTC/USD.

BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance
30266.0 31676.0
29685.0 32505.0
28856.0 33086.0
Pivot Point: 31095.0

BTC/USD – Technical Outlook

On Tuesday, the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, is trading dramatically bearish at 29,600 levels. The pair has violated the strong support level of 30,925 level, and now this level will be working as a resistance. On the 4-hour timeframe, BTC/USD has formed a bearish engulfing candle that’s supporting a strong selling bias among traders. Therefore, the selling trend dominates on Tuesday. Bitcoin’s immediate support prevails at 29,300 level, but the breakout of this level will expose BTC towards the next support level of 27,445. Our previous reports discussed how bearish Bitcoin’s technical outlook is, and now it’s testing the same levels we discussed previously. Bearish bias dominates on Tuesday. All the best!

50 Periods EMA Extends Resistance

The USD/JPY was closed at 110.08 after placing a high of 110.36 and a low of 109.73. the currency pair USD/JPY found some support on Friday as it remained green for the day after dropping sharply for the previous two consecutive sessions. The U.S. Dollar Index covering the greenback value against the basket of six major currencies surged on Friday and extended its gains for the second successive session, and reached 92.76 level making the U.S. dollar stronger against its rival currencies.

The strength in the greenback could be attributed to the better-than-expected macroeconomic data of Retail Sales from June. As well as the safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar was also behind its strength on the last day of the week amid a rising number of coronavirus cases around the globe.

On the data front, at 17:30 GMT, the Core Retail Sales for June increased to 1.3% against the estimated 0.4% and supported the U.S. dollar that pushed USD/JPY higher. In June, the Retail Sales also rose to 0.6% against the predicted -0.4% and supported the U.S. dollar, and added further gains in the USD/JPY pair.

At 19:00 GMT, the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment declined to 80.8 against the projected 86.5 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that kept the gains in USD/JPY limited. The Business Inventories fell to 0.5% against the anticipated 0.6% and supported the U.S. dollar, and pushed the currency pair USD/JPY higher. The Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations also remained unchanged at 4.8%.

Meanwhile, the currency pair USD/JPY was also high because of the weak Japanese Yen on the day amid the latest growth forecast from the Bank of Japan. The BOJ cut this year’s growth forecast and said that it expects the economy to expand 3.7% in the current fiscal year that will end in March 2022; this forecast was down from previously projected as 4.0% in April.

On Friday, the Bank of Japan released its fresh quarterly projections; however, it also maintained its view that the economy was moving towards a moderate recovery, signaling that monetary policy would remain unchanged for some time.

Furthermore, the Bank also released an outline of its new scheme that will boost the funding for activities combating climate change and offer banks long-term loans at 0 interest. However, the Bank revised its forecast up from 2.4% to 2.7% for the next year. The rise in expected growth for the next year was attributed to the accelerated vaccinations and increased consumption. The Japanese Yen came under pressure on Friday after the Bank of Japan cut its growth projections for this year and added further strength in the USD/JPY currency pair.

USD/JPY Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance
109.68 110.07
109.50 110.28
109.30 110.46
Pivot Point: 109.89

USD/JPY – Technical Outlook

The safe-haven currency pair USD/JPY is trading with a strong selling bias at 109.950 level, having bounced off the support level of 109.850 level. The technical side of the USD/JPY pair hasn’t changed a lot. On the 4 hour timeframe, the pair is closing candles right below the 50 EMA level that’s supporting selling trend in USD/JPY. Besides, the USD/JPY has also violated the upward channel on the 4-hour timeframe, driving a solid selling trend in the USD/JPY pair.
On the downside, the USD/JPY pair is exposed towards the next support level of 109.520 level, and the breakout of this level exposes it towards the support level of 108.940. All the best!

Upward Channel Supports

Gold prices closed at $1815.00 after placing a high of $1832.70 and a low of $1809.50. After rising for the previous three consecutive sessions, gold reversed its movement and declined at the ending day of the week. The reversal in yellow metal prices could be attributed to the rising prices of the U.S. dollar on the session. The Dollar Index (DXY) surged on Friday to 92.76 level that ultimately added pressure on the precious metal prices as both are inversely correlated.

Gold was drifted further away from its one-month high level that it hit during the previous session as the U.S. dollar continued its upward momentum and dulled the appeal for the safe-haven metal. On Thursday, the yellow metal reached the 1-month highest level amid the comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who said that the Fed would continue providing its support to the economy in the form of stimulus measures which faded away from the hopes of quick tapering of asset purchases given the rising inflation numbers.

On the data front, at 17:30 GMT, the Core Retail Sales for June surged to 1.3% against the expected 0.4% and supported the U.S. dollar that added further loss in gold prices. In June, the Retail Sales also surged to 0.6% against the projected -0.4% and supported the U.S. dollar, and dragged yellow metal further on the downside.

At 19:00 GMT, the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment dropped to 80.8 against the predicted 86.5 and weighed on the U.S. dollar and additional caped loss in gold prices. The Business Inventories declined to 0.5% against the predicted 0.6% and supported the U.S. dollar and weighed on the precious metal. The Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations also remained flat at 4.8%.

The U.S. dollar was strong across the board amid a positive macroeconomic data release on Friday. The Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales data showed a massive improvement in June against the previous expectations, and hence, the greenback gathered strength against the precious metal. Meanwhile, the loss in gold remained limited as the concerns of the fast spread of the Delta variant of coronavirus kept the safe-haven appeal alive in the market. The U.S. officials said on Friday that the Delta variant of COVID-19 was now the dominant variant worldwide, accompanied by a rise in the number of deaths almost entirely among unvaccinated people in the United States.

As per the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the coronavirus cases in the U.S. were up to 70%. The deaths were up to 26% over the previous week as the outbreaks were occurring in the country’s regions with low vaccination rates. The virus woes kept the loss in yellow metal limited for the day, and precious metal remained bearish throughout the day over the strength of the U.S. dollar driven by positive macroeconomic data.

Gold Intraday Technical Level

Support Resistance
1821.40 1835.80
1813.80 1842.60
1807.00 1850.20
Pivot Point: 1828.20

Gold – XAU/USD – Technical Outlook

On Monday, the precious metal gold is trading with a neutral bais at 1,812 levels. Gold is holding above an immediate support level of 1,808 level. Since we are not expecting any high-impact economic event from the U.S. today, the gold price may exhibit choppy sessions. Gold’s immediate support prevails at a 1,808 level that’s extended by an upward channel on the 4-hour timeframe. At the same level, the 50 periods EMA is also supporting gold prices. However, the breakout of this level can expose gold prices towards 1,800 and 1,791 level.

All the best!