Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Analysis – Aug 02, 2021

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 2, 2021
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Violated Trendline Supports Euro at 1.1850

The EUR/USD was closed at $1.1870 after placing a high of $1.1910 and a low of $1.1851. EUR/USD currency pair broke its 5-day bullish streak and dropped on Friday amid the renewed strength of the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar gathered its strength against the basket of six major currencies at the ending trading day of the month and reached 92.24 level on Friday that added extra pressure on its rival currencies like Euro.

The Italian Prelim CPI for July rose to 0.3% against the forecasted 0.1% and supported Euro, reducing the declining pressure on EUR/USD. The Prelim Flash GDP for the quarter surged to 2.0% against the projected 1.5% and pushed Euro higher that caped further loss in EUR/USD. The Unemployment Rate from the whole bloc decreased in June to 7.7% against the forecasted 7.9%% and supported the single currency Euro and limited the decline in EUR/USD.

From the U.S. side, at 17:30 GMT, the Core CPE Price Index for June dropped to 0.4% against the forecasted 0.6% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that limited the decline in EUR/USD prices. The Employment Cost Index also dropped to 0.7% against the projected 0.9% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that caped further loss in EUR/USD. Personal Income from June rose to 0.1% against the predicted -0.4% and supported the U.S. dollar that added further pressure on EUR/USD.

Personal Spending in June also surged to 1.0% against the anticipated 0.7% and supported the U.S. dollar that added further loss in EUR/USD. At 18:45 GMT, the Chicago PMI for July increased to 73.4 against the projected 64.2 and supported the U.S. dollar that dragged EUR/USD even lower on Friday. At 19:00 GMT, the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment in July remained flat at 81.2. The Revised UoM Inflation Expectations dropped in July to 4.7% against the previous 4.8%.

Apart from the macroeconomic data, the single currency Euro was under pressure on Friday as the European nations struggled to fight the 4th wave of the coronavirus. Some countries of the region started tightening border controls as the Delta variant of the coronavirus triggered a rise in the number of coronavirus cases. According to the World Health organization, the Delta variant has become the dominant variant in much of Europe.

Meanwhile, on Friday, it was reported that Pfizer and Moderna had raised the prices of their COVID-19 vaccines in the latest supply contracts with Europe. Pfizer raised its per shot prices to €19.50 from the previous €15.50, while Moderna raised its per shot price to €21.48 from €19. The demand from the E.U. increased for these vaccine shots as other vaccine shots gave some side effects to people and because the E.U. set a plan to hit a target of fully vaccinated 70% of the adult population by the end of the summer.

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1862 1.1870

1.1858 1.1874

1.1854 1.1878

Pivot Point: 1.1866

EUR/USD - Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair is trading with a slightly bullish bias on Monday at the 1.1875 level, gaining immediate support at the 1.1850 level. On the higher side, the resistance stays at the 1.1907 level. On the 4-hourly chart, the EUR/USD pair has already violated the downward trendline that’s now extending support at the 1.1850 level.

A bearish breakout of this support level can expose the EUR/USD pair towards 1.1810 support. That’s where the 50 M.A. (moving average) stays and can trigger a bounce off in the EUR/USD. However, the bearish crossover below this level can expose the EUR/USD pair towards the 1.1760 support level. The bullish bias dominates the EUR/USD above 1.1850 today. All the best.


Technical Analysis

BTC/USD Analysis – Aug 02, 2021

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 2, 2021
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Doji & 50 M.A. Underpins Bitcoin

The BTC/USD was closed at $39,922.0 after placing a high of $42,532.0 and a low of $39,596.0. Bitcoin reached its highest since 19th May level during the early trading session on Friday but failed to remain green for the day as traders started booking profits. A U.S. asset management giant, GoldenTree Asset Management which has $45 billion in assets under management AUM, announced that it has purchases portions of Bitcoins and added them to its balance sheet.

The company is said to add bitcoin because it wanted to diversify from traditional debt investment strategies. The wealth management firm was looking for staff that understands crypto solutions and blockchain tech. This news added to the price of bitcoin during early trading hours on Friday.

Furthermore, the government of Germany passed the law that will enable German institutional funds to hold up to about 20% of their assets in terms of cryptocurrencies. The latest German law will go into effect from Aug 02, and this initiative could bring about $415 billion worth of investments via cryptocurrencies. This was another piece of news that added further strength to the prices of Bitcoin over the weekend. Meanwhile, Wealthfront has also announced that it would increase the cryptocurrency exposure to its clients by adding Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and Grayscale Ethereum Trust.

This service will not require the clients to use wallets or open an account in a cryptocurrency exchange. The company also warned that such investment could be risky and more volatile than most ETFs and would limit the initiative. This was another factor involved in the rising prices of BTC/USD. Moreover, there were also reports that the former SEC Chairman Jay Clayton was fighting for an approval of Bitcoin ETF. While, on the other hand, the newly-appointed SEC Chairman, Gary Gensler, was continuously working towards establishing a regulatory framework for digital assets.

Clayton, currently serving on the One River Asset Management board, has recently submitted a registration statement for One River Carbon Neutral Bitcoin Trust. This fund is the latest attempt at getting the long-awaited Bitcoin ETF approval in the U.S. Clayton is actively involved in the application process and is considering the experience of the former SCE head, and people are suggesting that this fund has good odds at getting approval from SEC.

The declining prices of Bitcoin over the weekend could be attributed to profit-taking and the strength of the U.S. dollar. The DXY reached 92.20 level on Friday amid the renewed strength against the basket of six major currencies as the inflation was rising higher than the central bank's expectations. The chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, said that inflation might remain at higher levels for some time, but it would be transitory.

BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

38834.6 41770.6

37747.3 43619.3

35898.6 44706.6

Pivot Point: 40683.3

BTC/USD - Technical Outlook

On Monday, the BTC/USD pair is retracing back to trade below the psychological trading level of $40K. The Bitcoin is now trading at 39,650 level, gaining immediate support at 39,180 level. This support level is given by the 50 M.A. (moving average) on the 4-hourly chart. The closing of a spinning top candle above this 39,180 level is supporting slight bullish sentiment in Bitcoin.

A bearish breakout of this level can expose the Bitcoin price towards the next support level of 38,315 and 36,510 levels. Conversely, the breakout of a 40,500 level can expose the BTC/USD price towards 42,470 level. The MACD is also supporting a buying trend in Bitcoin on Monday. All the best!


Technical Analysis

ETH/USD Analysis – July 30, 2021

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 30, 2021
ETH-USD.jpg

Upward Trendline Supports at $2,290

The ETH/USD pair extended its overnight gaining streak. They drew some further bids around above the $2,400 level as hashing power securing the world's two most prominent blockchains is started to recover after Chinese miners have completed their relocations. This has a bullish impact on the ETH prices.

In the meantime, the infamous trader "Jordan Belfort" behind the movie "The Wolf of Wall Street" has shared a bullish view on bitcoin and ether price. This also played a role in supporting the BTC and ETH prices. The Ethereum price is currently trading at $2,402.55, with a 24-hour trading volume of $18,142,024,417. Ethereum is up 5.02% in the last twenty-four hours. In contrast to this, the greenback's bullish bias, backed by the risk-off market sentiment, failed to put any downside pressure on the ETH/USD coin pair, at least for now.

However, the bullish bias surrounding Ethereum was mainly sponsored by the reports suggesting that the BTC and ETH hash rates start recovering as Chinese miners redeploy overseas. As per the latest report, the hash rate securing Bitcoin and Ethereum came on the recovery track as some Chinese miners have completed their relocation after the crackdown.

The power stations across multiple provinces have been ordered to suspend energy supply to mining facilities right after China's recent crackdown on the BTC mining industry. As in result, Bitcoin's hash rate initially dropped to below 90 EH/s, a level not seen since early 2020. With the gradual recovery, BTC's mining difficulty is expected to post a 4% growth in its coming adjustment, after having registered 4-consecutive drops since mid-May.

ETH/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

2247.60 2348.07

2195.68 2396.62

2147.13 2448.54

Pivot Point: 2296.15

ETH/USD - Technical Outlook

The ETH/USD trades with bullish sentiment at the 2,425 level and now consolidates between a narrow trading range of 2,430 – 2,260. The double top pattern on the 4-hour chart extends solid resistance at 2,427 level, and a bullish breakout of this level exposes Ethereum price towards 2,636 level. The 50 M.A. (moving average) supports an upward trend in ETH and extends support at the 2,203 level.

The MACD and other leading indicators that entered the overbought zone are now getting back to normal conditions. It means they seem to get ready for another bullish rally in Ethereum. With that being said, the investor's focus will remain on the resistance level of 2,430 as the bullish breakout of this exposes ETH/USD towards 2,635. All the best!


Technical Analysis

DOGE/USD Analysis – July 30, 2021

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 30, 2021
DOGE-USD.jpg

Choppy Session in Play

The DOGE/USD was closed at $0.204930 after placing a high of $0.206520 and a low of $0.200470. Dogecoin maintained its null-movement for the second consecutive session and moved under consolation throughout the day amid the lack of any related fundamental or news.

The Chairman of O’Shares ETFs and judge on ABC’s Shark Tank told CNBC that he has no plans to add Dogecoin into his portfolio. He even said that he did not understand why anybody would want to add it to his portfolio; however, at the end of the day, that’s their choice.

O’Leary said that investing in Dogecoin earlier this year drove its prices 12,000% from fractions of a penny to 69 cents was only gambling; he said that he would not even call it investing. He further said that there is no inherent value of the Dogecoin, and people should only consider it entertainment rather than speculate.

O’Leary continued and said that the investors tend to bet on management’s ability to execute its business plan and achieve goals. Still, with Dogecoin, there was no such informed decision-making as a buyer of Dogecoin hopes that price will go up. He even compared investing in Dogecoin to going to Las Vegas and putting money on red or black.

The chairman of O’Shares said that Dogecoin was first made as a joke as its creator also said that the whole process took him only 3 hours. He said that bitcoin has sophisticated technology and has another feature of scarcity that Dogecoin lacks. It means that an unlimited amount of Dogecoin can be made, which makes it less secure.

O’Leary did not criticize the whole crypto market but only Dogecoin and said that his team had done complete research into crypto, and they see value in certain aspects of the market. These negative comments kept on weighing on the Dogecoin, and hence, DOGE/USD remained flat throughout the day as most investors remained out of the market.

DOGE/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

0.201426 0.207476

0.197923 0.210023

0.195376 0.213526

Pivot Point: 0.203973

DOGE/USD - Technical Outlook

The DOGE/USD pair is trading with a neutral bias bullish bias at 0.2060 level, having rejected at the double top resistance level of 0.2100 level. On the 4-hour timeframe, Dogecoin is consolidating in a trading range of 0.2100 – 0.1995 level, and a breakout of this range will determine further trends upon a break out of this trading range.

The indicators like MACD and 50 EMA support a buying trend as the 50 EMA provides support at the 0.2025 level. Bullish trend continuation and a breakout of 0.2104 level can expose DOGE/USD price towards 0.2210 and 0.2275 levels.

Besides, the bearish breakout of 0.1998 level can expose Doge towards 0.1909 and 0.1835 support levels on Friday. Bullish bias dominates over 0.2040 today. All the best!


Technical Analysis

BTC/USD Analysis – July 30, 2021

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 30, 2021
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Can Bitcoin Violate $40K Level Today?

The BTC/USD was closed at $40,041.0 after placing a high of $40,623.0 and a low of $39,282.0. After rising continuously for eight consecutive sessions, BTC/USD remained flat on Thursday and closed the day with no change. The CEO of Tesla, Elon Musk, hinted about Tesla's bitcoin holding and said that the company might own close to 42K Bitcoin. A shareholder of Tesla, Dave Lee, ran a calculation on Twitter and showed the approximate number of bitcoins held by Tesla.

According to his estimation, Tesla holds about $1.47 billion in Bitcoin. In response to his tweet, Elon Musk replied that Tesla did not as much as bitcoin he estimated. He further said that the estimation was close but not true. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund took a step to advise against making any digital asset the nation's currency. IMF advised not to make bitcoin or any other form of crypto their national currencies. The post did not specifically mention any country or region while warning China and EL Salvador.

China has been working on making a digital version of its national currency and wants to take its monetary system in a whole new direction. The biggest example of such a step could be El Salvador, which recently made bitcoin its legal tender. The advice given to all countries from IMF added pressure on BTC/USD and kept it steady throughout the day. Furthermore, the Ministry of Finance of Israel published a draft law on Tuesday that would require investors to report bitcoin holdings of more than $61,000 to tax authorities. This bill was proposed to optimize tax collection by requiring the reporting of bitcoin and other cryptocurrency holdings.

According to this bill, if approved, anyone in the country who transacts bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies shall have to report holdings worth $61,000 or above to the authorities.

On the other hand, the Business Intelligence and mobile software firm MicroStrategy has pledged to buy more bitcoin despite reporting an impairment loss of $424.8 million in Q2. The CEO Michael Saylor said that they continued to be pleased by implementing their digital asset strategy. Their latest capital increase allowed them to expand their digital holdings, exceeding 105,000 bitcoins. They showed intentions further to deploy additional capital into their digital asset strategy. These comments kept the BTC/USD higher, and hence, the cryptocurrency remained steady throughout the day.

BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

39341.0 40682.0

38641.0 41323.0

38000.0 42023.0

Pivot Point: 39982

BTC/USD - Technical Outlook

On Friday, the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, continues to retest the $40,000 resistance level. At the moment, it's trading at 39,730 level, and technically, it's in the overbought zone. The MACD demonstrates that the buyers are exhausted below $40K, and typically they start doing profit-taking. If such a thing happens, the BTC/USD's support will prevail at 38,650 level that marks 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Below this, the next support stays at the $36,448 level.

Conversely, the breakout of 40,475 resistance level can expose BTC/USD price towards 41,365 and 43,500. On Friday, bearish bias dominates Bitcoin prices below the $40K level. All the best!


Technical Analysis

ETH/USD Analysis – July 29, 2021

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 29, 2021
ETH-USD.jpg

Upward Trendline Supports at $2,290

The ETH/USD was closed at $2299.52 after placing a high of $2344.70 and a low of $2244.23. ETH/USD remained flat throughout Wednesday’s trading session as the cryptocurrency closed its day on the same level it started its day with.

After rising for seven consecutive sessions, ETH/USD remained flat for the day as investors started moving in the other direction. The Ethereum network successfully crossed 200,000 validators which means the 200,000 validator nodes were running ahead of the ETH 2.0 launch.

The staked ETH now amounted to over 6.6 million coins, with a total of over $14 billion worth of ETH currently staked in the network. About 20,000 validators had been added to the network in a span of a month, which makes the validators number over 200,000 from 180,000. The number of investors staking their coins has been increasing day by day in anticipation of the upgrade to ETH 2.0 expected to bring rewards for the validators. Recently, the amount of staked ETH has reached about 5% of the entire circulating supply of ETH.

Meanwhile, Coinbase reported that the trading volume of ETH increased more than the trading volume of bitcoin in the first half of 2021. The report suggested that the trading volume of Ether grew three times faster than that of bitcoin during the first half of 2021.

The ETH volume rose by more than 1400%, with a total of $1.4 trillion, while the Bitcoin volume increased by 489% and reached $2.1 trillion. Coinbase took data from 20 trading venues and released a report suggesting an increase in Ether’s trading volume by 1461% during the first six months of 2021 whereas, bitcoin’s trading volume rose by 489% the same period. This news added further strength to the ETH/USD on Wednesday.

Moreover, the CEO of the large Swiss-based banking institution Vontobel Bank, Zeno Staub, said their clients were increasingly interested in cryptocurrencies. He further praised the blockchain technology for its security and reliability and said that their customers were interested in digital assets. These comments from Vontobel Bank CEO added strength in the whole cryptocurrency space that also benefited ETH/USD.

Furthermore, the declining prices of the U.S. dollar on Wednesday after the disappointing Federal Reserve meeting statement also supported the prices of ETH/USD. The U.S. dollar index that measures the greenback value against the basket of six major currencies fell to 92.24 level and pushed ETH/USD higher as both have a negative correlation.

ETH/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

2247.60 2348.07

2195.68 2396.62

2147.13 2448.54

Pivot Point: 2296.15

ETH/USD - Technical Outlook

The ETH/USD is also trading with a bullish bias at a 2,279 level. However, the pair has retraced back from the multi weeks the high level of 2,406 level. The MACD and other leading indicators entered the overbought zone, triggering a Fibonacci retracement in Ethereum. On the chart above, the ETH/USD has completed 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2,150 level, and the upward trendline is now extending support at the same level. A bearish breakout of 2,150 levels exposes ETH towards 2,050 and 2,008 support levels. At the same time, the resistance continues to hold at 2,325 and 2,406 levels. Bullish bias seems dominant on Wednesday. All the best!


Technical Analysis

BTC/USD Analysis – July 29, 2021

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 29, 2021
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Bitcoin Bounces-off 50% Fibonacci Retracement

The BTC/USD was closed at $40,004.0 after placing a high of $40,899.0 and a low of $38,822.0. BTC/USD extended its upward momentum and reached near the $41,000 level on Wednesday after rising continuously for eight straight days.

Bitcoin enjoyed another day of a bullish trend on Wednesday after a bitcoin mining company since 2013, Genesis Digital Assets, announced that it had added a $125 million round of equity funding to support the expansion plans.

The funds came in from Kingsway Capital, the UK-based private equity fund. Kingsway is focused on frontier emerging markets and has over $2 billion in assets under management. The CEO of Kingsway Capital, Manuel Stotz, joined the boards of directors at Genesis and said that bitcoin would be the most important technology for financial inclusion of the global poor and unbanked. He further said that mining provides security to make it possible, and the Genesis team has been building highly profitable large-scale bitcoin mining farms for nearly 8-years, and the industry has only been around for twelve years.

Stotz finally said that Kingsway was incredibly excited to support Genesis and his funds appreciated the experienced bitcoin mining as they believed in the miner’s future. According to the announcement, Genesis has mined over $1 billion in bitcoin to date, and the company had plans to expand its operations to get a more significant share of the global bitcoin mining.

ProFunds announced on Wednesday the launch of its Bitcoin Strategy ProFund (BTCFX). It will be the first publicly available U.S. mutual fund that will generally track the price of bitcoin. Michael Sapir, the CEO of ProFunds, said that the Bitcoin Strategy ProFund would offer traders the opportunity to attain exposure to BTC without having to open a new account with an unregulated party as it is required to buy bitcoin directly. In this way, investors can experience bitcoin investment without being directly involved with it, and this news added further strength to the BTC/USD prices.

On the other hand, U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren mentioned the Decentralized Finance, cyber-attacks related to crypto, and threats that stablecoins pose as risks to the financial system in a letter to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. She urged the government to form a regulatory strategy to decrease the growing risks of cryptocurrencies on the current financial system. She was urging Yellen to take action against cryptos, and this letter posed a negative impression on bitcoin and the whole crypto market.

Moreover, the CEO of Galaxy Digital Michael Novogratz said that cryptocurrencies like bitcoin had surged again because of the inflows from institutional investors. In response to U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren’s anti-crypto letter, Novogratz said that the lawmakers at D.C. needed education on cryptocurrency.

BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

37478.4 40605.4

35393.7 41647.7

34351.4 43732.4

Pivot Point: 38520.7

BTC/USD - Technical Outlook

On Thursday, the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, once retests the $40K resistance level. Despite strong bullish bias, the Bitcoin failed to violate the 40,450 resistance level. On the daily chart, the bullish power still seems strong as the BTC/USD has closed "three white soldiers". This candlestick pattern suggests a strong bullish trend in Bitcoin; therefore, the breakout of 40,475 resistance level can expose BTC/USD price towards 41,365 and 43,500. On the flip side, the support continues to hold around 39,017 and 37,650 levels. The MACD is holding in a buying zone. Therefore, the bullish bias dominates Bitcoin prices. All the best!


Technical Analysis

USD/JPY Analysis – July 28, 2021

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 28, 2021
USD-JPY.jpg

Federal Funds Rate Under Spotlight

The USD/JPY was closed at 109.76 after placing a high of 110.41 and a low of 109.58. The currency pair USD/JPY dropped for the second straight day on Tuesday and reached below 110 level amid the fresh weakness in the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar index, along with the benchmark U.S. Treasury Yields on the 10-year note, fell on Tuesday and weighed on the greenback. The U.S. dollar traded on the back foot ahead of the U.S. Fed monthly policy meeting as investors were cautious about placing strong bets before having a definite clue about the next move from Fed.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that measures the greenback value against the basket of six major currencies, fell to 92.32 level on Tuesday, and the U.S. Treasury Yield on 10-year did not also remain lower for the day with a 5% loss at 1.22%. These negative developments surrounding the greenback weighed heavily on the currency pair USD/JPY, and hence, the pair turned red for the second consecutive session.

On the data front, from the Japanese side, at 04:50 GMT, the SPPI for the year remained flat with the expectations of 1.4%. From the U.S. side, at 17:30 GMT, the Core Durable Goods Orders from June reduced to 0.3% against the anticipated 0.8% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further loss in USD/JPY. The Durable Goods Orders also dropped to 0.8% against the estimated 2.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar, increasing the downward pressure on USD/JPY. At 18:00 GMT, the HPI for May rose to 1.7% against the projected 1.6% and supported the U.S. dollar that further caped loss in the USD/JPY pair.

The S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI for the year increased to 17.0% against the anticipated 16.1% and supported the U.S. dollar that limited the loss in USD/JPY. At 18:59 GMT, the Richmond Manufacturing Index in July advanced to 27 against the expected 20 and supported the U.S. dollar, limiting the loss in the USD/JPY pair. At 19:00 GMT, the CB Consumer Confidence for July improved to 129.1 against the predicted 123.9 and supported the U.S. dollar that kept the USD/JPY pair supported through the pressure.

The governor of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, said that the bank was ready to modify the steps it was rolling out while dealing with climate change. He added a need for a learn-by-doing approach as it would help in the transition of companies and banks towards a greener society. He further compared the climate approach adopted by the Bank of Japan with that of some European counterparts and said that BOJ had no plans of adding green bonds in its asset purchases program. At the same time, the Japanese central bank aims to offer cheap funds to financial institutions that boost green investment and loans. The commercial banks will be responsible for deciding which loans should fall under the green category, and this is how BOJ will tackle climate change.

These comments from Kuroda added strength to the Japanese Yen that ultimately weighed on the currency pair USD/JPY and dragged the pair further on the downside. Furthermore, the investors were awaiting the statement of monthly policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve to find clues about the timeline for tightening monetary policy. The Fed was reluctant to tighten the policy as the number of coronavirus cases in the United States increased daily. Federal Reserve will state on Wednesday, followed by the news conference of Chairman Jerome Powell, who is expected to provide clues about the timeline to start tapering of asset purchases by the Fed.

USD/JPY Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

109.43 110.26

109.09 110.75

108.60 111.09

Pivot Point: 109.92

USD/JPY - Technical Outlook

The USD/JPY is trading sideways on Wednesday, with a narrow trading range of 109.990 – 109.585. On the downside, the breakout of 109.585 levels exposes the safe-haven currency pair towards the 109.175 support level. Conversely, the 50 period moving average provides resistance at 109.990 level, and bullish crossover of this level exposes the USD/JPY pair towards 110.500 level. The MACD is holding into the selling territory; therefore, the investor’s focus will be on the intraday pivot point resistance level of 109.920 level. During the U.S. session, the U.S. Fed Policy meeting will be determining the further trend in the USD/JPY pair. All the best.


Technical Analysis

ETH/USD Analysis – July 28, 2021

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 28, 2021
ETH-USD.jpg

Bullish Bias Dominates Over Trendline at $2,150

The ETH/USD was closed at $2301.45 after placing a high of $2318.00 and a low of $2152.76. ETH/USD surged for the 7th consecutive session on Tuesday and remained green for the day amid the recent bullish market sentiment. Ethereum rose higher on Tuesday despite the latest denial from Amazon about the prevailing rumor of adding bitcoin into its payment mechanism.

Yesterday, speculation came into the market that Amazon was looking into ways to accept bitcoin payments as it has posted a job opening for Digital Currency and Blockchain Product Lead. After this news, the whole cryptocurrency market saw a massive jump, including the leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin that reached above $40,000.

However, on Tuesday, a spokesperson from Amazon denied all such rumours and said that the speculations about adding bitcoin into its payment mechanism were not true. This news weighed on the market and took away the inflows that were seen yesterday.

Despite the denial of Amazon, the Ethereum prices continued moving in the upward direction on Tuesday as various favourable developments kept supporting the second leading cryptocurrency. The ETH/USD rose on Tuesday after the government of Maharashtra announced a partnership with the Indian blockchain startup LegitDoc.

This partnership was done to implement a credentialing system to verify diploma certificates powered by Ethereum. The Maharashtra State Board of Skill Development reported that it would start advocating only the digital verification method for all manual verification requests starting from next year. The step was taken to counter the rising number of document forgery cases in the country. This news added strength to the ETH/USD prices on Tuesday.

Furthermore, the experts at an investing companion app, Finder, released its Ethereum price prediction poll results on Tuesday that represented a bullish sentiment for the present and future of ETH. According to polls, the average price of the second leading cryptocurrency will reach $4.5K this year, and for the year 2025, the poll suggested an expected increase in the price of ETH to about $18K. These predictions in favor of ETH provided massive support to the prices of ETH/USD on Tuesday, and the cryptocurrency remained green for the 7th consecutive session.

Moreover, the prevailing weakness of the U.S. dollar driven by the cautious behaviour of investors ahead of the Federal Reserve monetary policy went ETH/USD higher on Tuesday. The U.S. Dollar Index that measures the greenback value against the basket of six major currencies fell to 92.32 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that pushed ETH/USD higher as both have a negative correlation.

ETH/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

2196.80 2362.04

2092.16 2422.64

2031.56 2527.28

Pivot Point: 2257.40

ETH/USD - Technical Outlook

Just like Bitcoin, the ETH/USD, is also trading with a bullish bias at a 2,279 level. However, the pair has retraced back from the multi weeks the high level of 2,406 level. The MACD and other leading indicators entered the overbought zone, triggering a Fibonacci retracement in Ethereum. On the chart above, the ETH/USD has completed 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2,150 level, and the upward trendline is now extending support at the same level. A bearish breakout of 2,150 levels exposes ETH towards 2,050 and 2,008 support levels. At the same time, the resistance continues to hold at 2,325 and 2,406 levels. Bullish bias seems dominant on Wednesday. All the best!


Technical Analysis

BTC/USD Analysis – July 28, 2021

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 28, 2021
03.jpg

Bitcoin Bounces-off 50% Fibonacci Retracement

The BTC/USD was closed at $39563.0 after placing a high of $39563.0 and a low of $36436.0. BTC/USD rose for the 7th consecutive session on Tuesday despite the denial from the internet giant Amazon about accepting cryptocurrencies as payment on its site. Bitcoin breached the critical level of $40,000 on Monday after the speculations came in the market that bitcoin was planning to add cryptocurrency in its payment mechanism; however, on Tuesday, the e-commerce giant denied such rumours and said speculation about specific plans for cryptocurrencies was not true.

The spokesperson from Amazon said that they remained focus on exploring what this could look like for customers shopping on Amazon. All this fuss came in the market following a job advertisement for a Digital Currency and Blockchain Product Lead from Amazon. Furthermore, a London-based newspaper City AM, also reported that Amazon was considering accepting bitcoin payments by the end of the year. Despite the denial from Amazon, Bitcoin continued moving in the upward direction and remained green for the day.

Meanwhile, the government of Kazakhstan was reportedly planning to enable banks to process cryptocurrency purchases. The country's ruling body has plans to allow local banks and financial institutions to offer cryptocurrency exposure to their clients. The government has decided to run the implementation for a year, after which it will be decided later whether to extend it. This news added further strength to the already high prices of BTC/USD on Tuesday.

On the other hand, the International Monetary Fund issued a warning against the latest El Salvador's bitcoin law. The IMF officials Tobias Adrian and Rhoda Weeks-Brown stated making crypto a legal tender. They noted that new digital forms of money provided faster and cheaper transfer and could enhance financial inclusion, resilience, and competition among payment providers.

However, they also noted that cryptos require significant investment and difficult policy choices. They wrote that if goods and services were priced both in the real and cryptocurrency, businesses and households would spend significant time and resources choosing which money to hold rather than engaging in productive activities.

They further said that the exchange rate would expose the government revenues to risk if taxes advance in crypto while payments remain in the local currency or vice versa. Additionally, the weakness in the U.S. dollar also played an essential role in keeping the BTC/USD higher on Tuesday. The cryptocurrency remained green for the day as the U.S. dollar was declining over the cautious behaviour of investors ahead of the Fed policy meeting. The U.S. Dollar Index remained lower on Tuesday at 92.32 level and pushed BTC/USD higher as both share a negative correlation.

BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

37478.4 40605.4

35393.7 41647.7

34351.4 43732.4

Pivot Point: 38520.7

BTC/USD - Technical Outlook

The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, tests the $40K resistance level once again. Only this time, the bullish power seems more substantial as the BTC/USD has closed "three white soldiers". This candlestick pattern suggests a strong bullish trend in Bitcoin; therefore, the breakout of 40,475 resistance level can expose BTC/USD price towards 41,365 and 43,500. On the flip side, the support continues to hold around 39,017 and 37,650 levels. The MACD is holding in a buying zone. Therefore, the bullish bias dominates Bitcoin prices. All the best