Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 19, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Apr 19, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair has been unable to halt its downward rally and has remained under pressure around the 1.0640 level. This downward trend can be attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions, which have strengthened the safe-haven US dollar and led to losses in the EUR/USD currency pair. Additionally, the EUR/USD pair's decline was exacerbated by the Fed's hawkish stance, which bolstered the US dollar further.

Geopolitical Tensions Trigger Demand for Safe-Haven Assets, Weigh on EUR/USD Pair

On the geopolitical front, Israel's reported launch of drones at Iran in retaliation for the April 13 attack has heightened geopolitical uncertainties. This has led to increased demand for safe-haven assets, such as the US dollar. Consequently, the EUR/USD pair faced selling pressure as investors sought refuge in the USD, causing a decline in its value.

Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance Boosts US Dollar, Pressures EUR/USD Pair

On the US front, Federal Reserve (Fed) members have adopted an increasingly hawkish stance regarding monetary policy. This shift has further strengthened the US Dollar. Remarks from Fed officials, including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and New York Fed President John Williams, indicating a reluctance to cut interest rates in the near term, have supported the USD's upward trajectory. The EUR/USD pair faced downward pressure due to a stronger US Dollar fueled by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. This led to a decline in the EUR/USD pair as investors favored the USD amid reduced expectations of rate cuts.

EUR/USD Reacts to ECB's Cautious Stance and Conflicting Views on Interest Rate Cuts

On the Euro front, ECB President Christine Lagarde's remarks suggesting a cautious approach towards cutting interest rates provided some support to the Euro (EUR). However, following comments from other ECB members advocating for rate cuts due to concerns about economic growth and inflation weighed on the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair is showing modest gains in today’s session, trading up by 0.08% at 1.06518. This minor uptick comes as the pair navigates just above the critical pivot point of $1.06280 on the four-hour chart. The currency pair is currently poised between key technical levels that could dictate the near-term trajectory of its movement.

Immediate resistance for the EUR/USD is noted at $1.06851, with further barriers at $1.07260 and $1.07755. These levels must be breached for a stronger confirmation of bullish momentum. Conversely, immediate support lies at $1.05875, with subsequent levels at $1.05491 and $1.05023, which could be tested if bearish pressures resume.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45 indicates a neutral market sentiment, neither too overbought nor oversold, suggesting potential for either movement direction depending on broader market cues. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.06984 slightly above the current price, adds to the resistance area that could cap upward movements.

Given the current setup, a strategic approach would involve initiating a long position if EUR/USD ascends above $1.06290, targeting a take profit at $1.06937. This trade should maintain a stop loss at $1.05897 to manage risk efficiently.

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Technical Analysis

S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – April 19, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Apr 19, 2024
Spx

Daily Price Outlook

The S&P 500 index, reflecting the performance of 500 large-cap stocks, has experienced a bearish trend and remained bearish around 5,011. This trend is attributed to factors such as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on inflation and interest rates. These tensions intensified after reports of Israeli missiles hitting a site in Iran, raising worries about potential conflict and its impact on global markets.

Furthermore, the S&P 500's bearish performance is further bolstered by the increasing value of safe-haven assets such as gold. Investors often turn to these assets in times of uncertainty or geopolitical instability, redirecting capital away from equities like those in the S&P 500. This shift in investment preferences has contributed to the index's downward movement.

On the other side, the S&P 500's bearish movement has been influenced by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. With Fed officials highlighting persistent inflation concerns and suggesting the possibility of maintaining higher interest rates for extended periods, investors might adopt a cautious approach regarding the future prospects of equities. The expectation of rate hikes can undermine investor confidence and result in selling pressure on stock indices such as the S&P 500.

Impact of Middle East Tensions on S&P 500 Index

On the geopolitical front, the recent tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, have had a notable impact on the S&P 500 index. However, the reports of Israeli missiles striking a site in Iran have heightened geopolitical uncertainties, causing market participants to adopt a risk-averse stance.

Investors often react negatively to geopolitical instability, as it introduces unpredictability into global markets.

Therefore, the uncertainty surrounding potential escalations or retaliations can lead to increased volatility in stock prices, including those within the S&P 500 index. As a result, the index has faced downward pressure amidst the heightened tensions in the Middle East.

Federal Reserve's Inflation Concerns and Interest Rate Policy

On the US front, Federal Reserve officials have been showing ongoing inflation concerns, signaling a willingness to maintain higher interest rates for longer durations. The Federal Reserve's ongoing inflation concerns and potential for sustained higher interest rates can impact the S&P 500 index by increasing borrowing costs for businesses and influencing investor sentiment.

SPX Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
SPX Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

S&P 500 - Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 currently reflects a minor downtrend, with the index trading at 5011.11, marking a decrease of 0.22%. As the index navigates below its four-hour chart pivot point of $5039.76, the technical setup suggests a cautious bearish sentiment. Immediate resistance levels lie at $5080.78, $5138.22, and $5205.92, which could act as potential ceilings for any short-term bullish reversals. Conversely, the market finds immediate support at $4983.34, with further protective barriers at $4920.77 and $4845.90. These levels are pivotal in defining the lower limits of the current trading range.

The technical indicators provide a clearer picture of the market’s direction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is notably low at 29, indicating an oversold condition which typically suggests a potential for a price rebound or stabilization. However, the substantial distance from the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 5172.41 further emphasizes the bearish momentum, as this moving average stands well above the current price, indicating a longer-term downtrend.

For traders, the recommended strategy would involve initiating short positions if the index dips below the $5040 threshold, targeting a take-profit level at $4965. This trading plan should be safeguarded with a stop loss at $5100 to manage risk effectively.

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Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – April 19, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Apr 19, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold prices (XAU/USD) have extended their winning streak, reaching an intraday high of around the 2,417.79 level. The upward momentum gained traction as ongoing tensions in the Middle East bolstered Gold prices, with investors seeking safe-haven assets. Moreover, Federal Reserve officials highlighted ongoing inflation concerns and hinted at maintaining higher interest rates for longer. This could exert upward pressure on Gold prices due to its role as a hedge against inflation.

In contrast, the US dollar's bullish bias, driven by the increase in US Treasury yields and hawkish messages from Federal Reserve officials, generally supports the US Dollar but can exert downward pressure on Gold prices.

Federal Reserve's Stance and Economic Data Propel Gold Prices Amid Rate Cut Expectations

On the US side, Federal Reserve officials spoke about inflation and interest rates. Raphael Bostic from the Atlanta Fed said inflation is too high, so the Fed won’t lower rates yet. Meanwhile, John Williams from the New York Fed believes the Fed's policies are good for now, and they don't need to rush to lower rates. However, they might raise rates if necessary. The news, along with steady jobless claims, helped Gold prices rise further.

On the data front, the US Department of Labor reported that Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 212,000, lower than expected, while Continuing Jobless Claims slightly increased to 1.812 million. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index surged to 15.5, beating forecasts, but Existing Home Sales fell to 4.19 million, below expectations. The CME FedWatch Tool suggests a potential rate cut in September, with a 66% chance, down from yesterday's 71%.

Therefore, the Federal Reserve's stance on inflation and interest rates, along with positive jobless claims and mixed economic data, contributed to Gold prices rising further amidst expectations of a potential rate cut in September.

Escalating Middle East Tensions Drive Gold Prices Higher

On the geopolitical front, tensions have spiked in the Middle East as reports confirm Israeli strikes in Iran, leading to heightened risk aversion in financial markets. The situation intensified with explosions reported at Isfahan airport, although the cause remains unclear. Iranian officials warned of immediate and strong responses to any Israeli actions against Iran's interests, while Israeli officials indicated plans for retaliation. These developments, coupled with ongoing tensions in Gaza, have raised fears of further clashes in the region, impacting market sentiment negatively.

Therefore, the heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially the Israeli strikes in Iran and the risk of further clashes, boosted safe-haven demand, contributing to a rise in Gold prices.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold’s current trajectory in the trading market exhibits a discernible uptick as it reaches a price of $2389.17, reflecting a 0.42% increase. Positioned advantageously above its pivot point at $2377.95, the precious metal shows potential for sustained bullish behavior. Immediate resistance is spotted at $2397.52, with subsequent thresholds at $2431.73 and $2461.89, each representing a critical juncture that could either propel or cap further gains depending on market responses.

On the flip side, Gold’s support levels are identified at $2355.45, $2327.10, and $2304.10. These figures not only suggest possible areas where price pullbacks might stabilize but also serve as indicators for the lower bounds of trading volatility. Should prices approach these levels, buyers might find compelling entry points, thereby injecting bullish sentiment back into the market.

Technical indicators enhance this analysis. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 56, signaling that Gold is experiencing bullish momentum, albeit without breaching overbought conditions. This implies a healthy upward movement with room for expansion. Furthermore, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2366.43 offers substantial support, underpinning the current price level. This moving average acts as a baseline, affirming the bullish trend as long as prices remain above it.

The trading strategy in this environment would involve entering a buy position if Gold maintains its stance above $2378, aiming for a profit target at $2415. This approach is moderated with a stop loss at $2353 to mitigate potential downside risks.

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Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 18, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Apr 18, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair has extended its strong upward rally and still flashing green around 0.6445 level. However, the reason for its upward trend can be attributed to the multiple factors including the upbeat performance of ASX 200 Index's.

The ASX 200 Index, a key indicator of Australia's stock market performance, has been gaining ground, particularly notable on Thursday. This upward movement in the index has a positive impact on the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the US Dollar (USD), contributing to the bullish trend in the AUD/USD currency pair.

At the same time, there has been a decline in US Treasury yields, which affects the strength of the US Dollar. Lower yields can reduce the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets, leading to a weaker US Dollar. This downward pressure on the USD also supports the bullish performance of the AUD/USD pair.

Australian Dollar Strength and Economic Data Impact on AUD/USD Pair

On the AUD front, the Australian Dollar is gaining strength as the ASX 200 Index rises. This boost is fueled by mining stocks performing well due to higher metals prices. A report from Westpac mentions that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) doesn't plan to increase rates soon but wants to be more confident about inflation before considering rate cuts.

On the data front, Australia's Employment Change in March was -6.6K, falling short of the expected 7.2K and the previous 117.6K. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate rose to 3.8%, slightly below the anticipated 3.9% but higher than the previous 3.7%.

Therefore, the AUD/USD currency pair see upward pressure due to the Australian Dollar gaining strength from a rising ASX 200 Index and positive mining stocks. However, weaker employment data could potentially limit the AUD's gains.

Federal Reserve Concerns and Potential Impact on USD and AUD/USD Pair

On the US front, Federal Reserve officials in the US are worried because inflation is higher than they expected. Loretta Mester from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland said they need to be sure that inflation stays around 2%, and they might lower interest rates if the job market gets worse. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman also noticed that inflation is slowing down, and the policies they have now are a bit strict and need to be checked. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book survey found that the US economy is growing a little bit, but businesses are struggling with higher costs.

Therefore, the concerns expressed by Federal Reserve officials about inflation and monetary policy could impact the US Dollar, weakening it if a rate cut occurs due to worsening labor market conditions. This could influence the AUD/USD pair.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar (AUD) has shown resilience against the US dollar (USD) today, recording a modest gain of 0.31% to trade at $0.64541. This movement indicates a positive shift in market sentiment towards the AUD amidst varying global economic conditions.

The pair is currently trading just above its pivot point at $0.6439, suggesting a potential for further upward movement. Immediate resistance is observed at $0.6494, with subsequent levels at $0.6545 and $0.6591. These are critical junctures where sellers might emerge, capping further advances. On the downside, support can be found at $0.6401, $0.6373, and $0.6339. These levels will be crucial in preventing a reversal of the current gains.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49 mirrors the market’s neutrality, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, and suggests that there is room for movement in either direction. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is set at $0.65, slightly above the current price, indicating that the AUD/USD could face resistance as it attempts to regain higher levels.

Traders looking to capitalize on the AUD's current trajectory should consider entering the market at $0.64381, targeting a take profit at $0.64944, with a stop loss at $0.64018 to manage risk effectively.

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GOLD Price Analysis – April 18, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Apr 18, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold prices (XAU/USD) have extended their winning streak, remaining well bid around the $2,382 level as investors choose safe-haven assets due to increasing economic uncertainty worldwide. Meanwhile, ongoing tensions in the Middle East are seen as another key factor boosting the safe-haven gold price. Investors typically turn to gold during times of uncertainty. Moreover, hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have contributed to the bullish sentiment surrounding gold.

Federal Reserve Policy and Its Impact on Gold Prices

On the US front, the stance of Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers regarding interest rates played a major role in Gold’s price. It should be noted that Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers remains cautious, indicating that interest rates will likely stay higher for an extended period until upcoming data shows sustainable inflation at the desired rate of 2%. Therefore, this cautious approach adds to the appeal of Gold, as uncertainties in the economic landscape lead investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets.

At the same time, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent comments on maintaining higher interest rates until inflation eases to 2% have bolstered the US dollar and bond yields. Therefore, the stronger US dollar exerts downward pressure on gold prices, as it becomes more expensive for investors holding other currencies to purchase gold.

Geopolitical Tensions Drive Gold Price Surge

On the geopolitical front, the long-lasting conflict in the Middle East have further bolstered the upticks in the safe-haven gold price. The recent attack by Iran on Israel and the threat of retaliatory measures have increased geopolitical risks, leading investors to seek refuge in assets considered safe, like gold.

However, the statements from key figures like Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, highlighting readiness to defend against threats, have further fueled these concerns. Consequently, investors turn to Gold as a traditional safe haven, driving up its price.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Today’s trading session sees gold prices ascend to $2378.195, marking a 0.77% increase, reflecting a buoyant mood among investors. Gold continues to rally amidst an environment that favors safe-haven assets, with its current price navigating near the critical pivot point of $2413.

Resistance and Support Levels: Gold's immediate resistance lies at $2398, with further ceilings expected at $2432 and $2462. These thresholds represent potential turning points where sellers might regain control. Conversely, support levels are established at $2334, $2304, and $2277. A breach below these could signal a bearish turn, leading to further declines.

Technical Indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 53, indicating a neutral market momentum with potential room for price increases if investor sentiment continues to improve. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2361 further supports the current bullish trend, suggesting that gold prices are well-positioned above this critical moving average, which historically acts as a dynamic support level.

Strategic Trading Levels: For traders considering entry into the market, buying above the $2370 mark could be strategic, targeting a take profit level at $2395. It's advisable to place a stop loss at $2345 to mitigate potential losses should the market retract against bullish predictions.

Conclusion: The outlook for gold remains cautiously optimistic as it flirts with resistance levels that could define the next trading phase. Traders should monitor these levels closely, as a breakout above $2398 could confirm continued bullish momentum, while failure to hold support might reverse gains.

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USD/JPY Price Analysis – April 18, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Apr 18, 2024
Usdjpy

Daily Price Outlook

During Thursday's European session, the USD/JPY currency pair has sustained an upward trend, demonstrating recent bullish performance as investors show a preference for the US Dollar over the Japanese Yen. This trend is influenced by various factors, including economic indicators and market sentiment. Investors' confidence in the US economy has notably impacted the bullish performance of the USD/JPY pair. Simultaneously, the US economy's resilience amid global economic challenges has led investors to favor the US Dollar as a safe-haven currency.

Additionally, the Federal Reserve's commitment to maintaining higher interest rates for an extended period has increased the appeal of the US Dollar, resulting in heightened demand for USD-denominated assets and further strengthening the bullish stance of the USD/JPY pair.

Japan's Potential FX Intervention and Its Impact on USD/JPY Stability

On the JPY front, investors are increasingly worried about Japan's potential intervention in the FX market to bolster the Japanese Yen. This intervention is seen as a short-term tactic to halt the Yen's decline. Masato Kanda, Japan's Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs, indicated that authorities are open to various strategies to address significant Yen fluctuations.

This announcement has made market players anxious about how this intervention might affect the USD/JPY pair. The uncertainty stems from questions about the intervention's effectiveness, duration, and the ensuing volatility it could bring to currency trading strategies and risk management practices.

Therefore, the potential intervention by Japan to support the Japanese Yen has caused uncertainty and anxiety among market players regarding its impact on the USD/JPY pair's stability and volatility.

Strong US Retail Sales Data Supports USD and Delays Fed Rate Cut Speculations

On the USD front, the previously rleeased strong Retail Sales data indicated a robust US economy. This led to speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might postpone its plans to ease monetary policy this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned a willingness to delay rate cuts due to unexpectedly higher inflation readings. The central bank intends to wait until it's more confident that inflation will reach the 2% target before considering lowering borrowing rates. This stance supports the US dollar and contributed to the USD/JPY gains.

Therefore, the strong Retail Sales data and Fed's willingness to delay rate cuts due to higher inflation have boosted confidence in the US economy, supporting the USD and contributing to gains in the USD/JPY pair.

USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair has slightly retreated today, recording a marginal decrease of 0.09%, and is currently priced at ¥154.284. Despite this slight downtick, the pair hovers above critical technical levels that could dictate short-term movements.

The pivot point for today stands at ¥153.93, acting as a baseline for the session's trading dynamics. If the pair maintains above this level, it could attempt to reach the immediate resistance at ¥154.75, followed by higher resistance levels at ¥155.36 and ¥155.99, which could serve as significant barriers to further upward movement. Conversely, support lies at ¥153.41, with additional levels at ¥152.81 and ¥151.95, where dips might find a floor, preventing deeper losses.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 58, suggesting a somewhat bullish sentiment but nearing the overbought territory, which might limit the potential for significant upside gains. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at ¥153.24, currently below the pair's price, indicating an underlying bullish trend in the medium term.

For traders looking to capitalize on current market conditions, a buying strategy above the pivot point at ¥153.950 is advisable, targeting a take profit level at ¥155.000, with a stop loss set at ¥153.400 to manage risks.

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GOLD Price Analysis – April 17, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Apr 17, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold price (XAU/USD) has maintained its upward trend and hit all-time highs around the $2,392 level as investors turned to safe-haven assets like gold amidst economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, coupled with mixed economic data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, have contributed to the bullish sentiment surrounding gold. Investors traditionally turn to gold during times of uncertainty and market volatility. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions and concerns about inflation have fueled demand for the precious metal, pushing prices upwards.

Fed Chair Powell's Hawkish Stance and Mixed US Data: Impact on Gold

On the US front, the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent comments on maintaining higher interest rates until inflation eases to 2% have bolstered the US dollar and bond yields. However, this hawkish stance, combined with strong labor demand and mixed economic data, has created a more bullish environment for the US dollar. Therefore, the stronger US dollar typically exerts downward pressure on gold prices, as it becomes more expensive for investors holding other currencies to purchase gold.

Powell's comments and mixed US data have caused gold to struggle in maintaining its new all-time highs. Although geopolitical tensions offer some support, overall sentiment is cautious due to the Fed's restrictive policy framework.

Escalating Middle East Tensions and Gold's Safe-Haven Appeal

On the geopolitical front, the escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, have added to the safe-haven appeal of gold. However, the recent attack by Iran on Israel and the threat of retaliatory measures have heightened geopolitical risks, prompting investors to seek refuge in assets perceived as safe, such as gold.

According to recent reports, an Israeli air attack in Gaza destroyed a mosque and nearby homes, causing injuries to many, including children and women. Iran warned Israel of a strong response to any action against its missile attacks. Israel is urging 32 countries to impose sanctions on Iran's military and missile program.

Israeli settlers are causing violence in the West Bank, and more troops are deployed. Over 33,843 Palestinians have died, and 76,575 are wounded in Gaza from Israeli attacks since October 7.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

On April 17, gold prices observed a slight decline, settling at $2,377.20, down 0.31% from the previous trading session. The precious metal is currently trading below its pivot point of $2,389, signaling a cautious sentiment among investors. Technical resistance levels are set at $2,410, $2,432, and $2,454, which gold would need to surpass to regain a bullish stance. However, immediate support levels loom at $2,334, followed by $2,305 and $2,277, which could come into play if downward pressure continues.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 54, indicating a neutral market momentum, neither overbought nor oversold at this juncture. Meanwhile, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,352 supports the notion of a medium-term upward trend in gold prices. This is reinforced by the positioning of the 200 EMA, suggesting a sustained bullish sentiment over a longer period.

Given the current market setup, traders might consider a strategic approach: entering a sell position if gold prices fall below $2,390, aiming for a take profit at around $2,350, with a stop loss set at $2,410.

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GBP/USD Price Analysis – April 17, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Apr 17, 2024
Gbpusd

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the bullish US dollar, the GBP/USD currency pair has managed to stop its downward trend and has been showing a bullish trend, reaching around the $1.2430 level. However, the reason for its upward movement is the positive performance of the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI). In March, the CPI rose by 3.2%, exceeding market expectations of 3.1%. This upbeat economic indicator has bolstered confidence in the British economy, leading to increased demand for the Pound Sterling (GBP) and pushing the pair higher.

In contrast to this, the stronger US dollar and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on rate cuts were seen as one of the key factors that kept the lid on any additional gains in the GBP/USD pair.

Positive UK CPI Data Supports GBP/USD Pair Amid Economic Confidence

On the data front, the United Kingdom's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.2% year-over-year in March, slightly slower than the 3.4% increase in February but beating expectations of a 3.1% rise. The Core CPI, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, grew by 4.2% annually, lower than February's 4.5% but above the anticipated 4.1%. March's Services CPI increased by 6.0% compared to the previous year, slightly down from February's 6.1% growth. Month-on-month, UK inflation stayed steady at 0.6% in March, matching February's rate. T

Therefore, the positive UK CPI data, despite a slight slowdown in growth, supported the GBP/USD pair, pushing it towards the $1.2450 level due to increased confidence in the British economy.

GBP/USD Pair Faces Downward Pressure from Hawkish Fed Comments and Strong US Retail Sales

On the other side of the pair, the broad-based US Dollar has seen upside momentum due to comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. Powell's hawkish stance on monetary policy, emphasizing the need for a longer period of restrictive measures, has strengthened the US dollar. In addition to this, positive US Retail Sales data has further boosted confidence in the American economy, exerting pressure on the GBP/USD pair.

On the data front, US Building Permits dropped to 1.458 million in March, below the expected 1.514 million, while Housing Starts fell to 1.321 million, missing the anticipated 1.480 million. However, US Retail Sales rose by 0.7% in March, surpassing expectations of 0.3% and revised upwards from 0.6% in February.

Therefore, the GBP/USD pair faced downward pressure from Jerome Powell's hawkish comments and positive US Retail Sales data, strengthening the US dollar against the British pound.

Bank of England Rate Cut Expectations Impact GBP/USD Pair

On the UK front, Investors have been pricing in the possibility of two rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) within this year, with expectations of the first cut potentially in August or September. This anticipation has created uncertainty in the forex market, leading to some selling pressure on the Pound (GBP) and impacting the GBP/USD pair's performance.

Therefore, the expectations of rate cuts by the Bank of England have introduced uncertainty, creating selling pressure on the Pound (GBP) and influencing the performance of the GBP/USD pair.

GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

On April 17, the GBP/USD pair experienced a slight increase, closing at 1.24394, up by 0.10%. This modest gain suggests a tentative optimism among traders as they navigate a mix of economic signals from both the UK and the US. Currently, the pair is trading below the pivotal level of 1.2511, which acts as a key juncture for future price movements.

Immediate resistance is established at 1.2470, with subsequent levels at 1.2512 and 1.2568. A breach of these resistance points could signal a strengthening of the bullish momentum. On the downside, the pair finds initial support at 1.2375. Further declines could see the GBP/USD testing support at 1.2332 and 1.2295, potentially reinforcing a bearish trend if these levels are penetrated.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 37 suggests that the currency pair is nearing oversold territory, indicating potential for an upward correction if bullish triggers are present in the market. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2552 also supports this view, as it lies just above the current price level, hinting at underlying buying pressure.

Given the technical setup, a prudent trading strategy would be to initiate a buy position if the GBP/USD moves above 1.24198, targeting a profit at 1.25114, while setting a stop loss at 1.23728 to manage potential downside risks.

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Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 17, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Apr 17, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair has continued its downward rally, experiencing a bearish trend around 1.0620 on Wednesday. This decline can be attributed to various factors, including a hawkish Fed, safe-haven flows toward the US dollar, and expectations of ECB rate cuts. These influences are expected to persist, with market participants closely monitoring central bank policies and economic indicators for further insights.

Hawkish Comments from Fed Officials and Safe-Haven Flows:

On the US front, the hawkish tone from Fed officials, including Powell, has contributed to safe-haven flows into the USD. Powell's positive remarks about the job market and his concerns about inflation have made investors prefer the USD as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, recent US economic data, such as the decrease in Housing Starts and Building Permits, has further boosted the USD's appeal, exerting additional downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

On the data front, US Building Permits fell to 1.458 million in March, below the expected 1.514 million, while Housing Starts dropped to 1.321 million, missing the anticipated 1.480 million. However, US Retail Sales increased by 0.7% in March, exceeding expectations of 0.3% and revised upwards from 0.6% in February. These factors, along with Jerome Powell's hawkish comments, contributed to downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

ECB's Plans to Cut Rates and Impact on EUR/USD:

On the Euro front, speculation about the ECB lowering interest rates in June could negatively impact the EUR/USD pair. This anticipation could lead to a weakening of the euro against the dollar as investors adjust their positions in response to the rate cut. Lagarde's comments signaling a rate cut and concerns over the Eurozone's economic outlook and inflationary pressures contribute to a bearish sentiment for the euro. Besides this, monitoring oil prices due to Middle East tensions adds to the uncertainty, adding downward pressure on the euro.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

On April 17, the EUR/USD pair traded slightly lower, closing at 1.06113, a 0.06% decrease from the previous session. This minor pullback reflects a cautious market sentiment as traders evaluate the latest economic cues from both Europe and the United States. The pair currently sits below its pivot point of 1.0630, suggesting a bearish bias in the near term. Immediate resistance is observed at 1.0685, with additional barriers at 1.0726 and 1.0787. Should the pair break above these levels, it could signal a shift towards a bullish outlook.

Conversely, support for the EUR/USD is found at 1.0600, followed by 1.0571 and 1.0528. Breaking below these levels could accelerate the bearish trend, pushing the pair to lower valuations. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 29 indicates that the pair is currently in the oversold territory, which might trigger a corrective rebound if bullish triggers emerge in the market.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0741 further illustrates that the pair is trading below medium-term moving averages, supporting the current bearish perspective. Considering these factors, traders might consider a short position at a break below 1.0630, with a take profit target at 1.0571 and a stop loss at 1.0671 to manage risk effectively.

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Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – April 16, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Apr 16, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold prices (XAU/USD) maintained their upward trend and remained well-bid around the $2,390 level. This upward trend can be attributed to the worsening Middle East crisis, which weighs on investors’ sentiment and benefits the metal. On the other hand, the reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut boosted the US dollar to its highest level so far this year, which limited the gains for the gold price. The broad-based US dollar hit to its highest level since early November due to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will delay cutting interest rates amid sticky inflation. This was seen as one of the key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the gold price.

Moving ahead, traders are keeping their eyes on US economic docket, which features the release of housing market data and Industrial Production figures. These, along with Fed's statements, will also be in spotlight.

Impact of Strong US Dollar and Retail Sales Data on Gold Prices

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been strengthening, reaching over a five-month peak due to ongoing concerns about the Middle East crisis and expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates for a longer period. This has acted as a negative factor for the price of gold. Investors are delaying their predictions for the first Fed interest rate cut, now expecting it in September instead of June, due to worries about persistent inflation and a robust US economy.

On the data front, the release of upbeat US Retail Sales data for March has also impacted the gold price. On the data front, the US Census Bureau reported that Retail Sales increased by 0.7% month-on-month (MoM) in March. This surpassed expectations, which predicted a 0.3% rise, and also exceeded the previous month's growth of 0.9%, which was revised upward. The data, indicating a stronger-than-expected increase in retail sales, showed robust consumer spending and suggests support for inflation in the coming months.

Therefore, the robust US dollar is exerting downward pressure on gold prices, driven by concerns such as the Middle East crisis and expectations of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve.

Impact of Middle East Geopolitical Tensions on Gold Prices

On the geopolitical front, Iran's attack on Israel over the weekend heightened tensions in the Middle East, increasing the risk of further conflicts. This situation benefited safe-haven assets like Gold, which saw a positive boost at the start of the new week. Israeli officials are considering retaliation, but the US made it clear that it won't join any offensive actions against Iran. As per the latest report, Iran fired over 300 projectiles at Israel in retaliation for an earlier strike. Israel hasn't responded yet, but tensions are high as both sides warn of stronger actions.

Therefore, the heightened tensions in the Middle East following Iran's attack on Israel led to a positive boost in the Gold price as investors sought safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainty.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

In today's technical outlook for GOLD on April 16th, the precious metal experienced a decline, reaching $2371.99, marking a decrease of 0.58%. Analyzing the chart timeframe, the pivot point is established at $2351, indicating a pivotal level for potential price movements. Immediate resistance levels are observed at $2410, followed by $2432 and $2454. Conversely, immediate support lies at $2334, with subsequent levels at $2305 and $2277.

Technical indicators highlight the significance of the 50-day Exponential Moving Average, currently at $2341. Notably, a double top pattern is forming, exerting resistance around $2389. This pattern, coupled with the presence of a doji candle below this level, suggests a potential shift towards a selling trend.

In conclusion, traders may consider a sell strategy below $2389, with a take-profit target at $2350 and a stop-loss set at $2410. These key price levels and technical insights provide valuable guidance for navigating gold's current market dynamics.

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