Fibonacci Retracement in Play

The EUR/USD closed at $1.1822 after placing a high of $1.1896 and a low of $1.1806. EUR/USD continued its bearish momentum and dropped for the 5th session in the previous seven sessions. The declining prices of the EUR/USD could be attributed to the strength of the U.S. dollar for the day along with the weak Euro amid dismal economic data. On Tuesday, the U.S. Dollar Index measures the greenback value against the basket of six major currencies to 92.66 level falling to 92.0 level on the day. The investors remained optimistic about the ongoing economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic as U.S. President Joe Biden refused to veto his $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill even if the separate democratic spending plan of $6 trillion did not pass the Congress.

The U.S. dollar remained strong across the board on Tuesday despite the poor-than-expected macroeconomic data and falling U.S. Treasury Yields. The U.S. Treasury yields on benchmark 10-year note fell to their lowest level since the ending week of February at 1.34%. On the data front, at 11:00 GMT, the German Factory Orders for May dropped to -3.7%against the expected 0.9% and weighed on single currency Euro that added further loss in EUR/USD pair. At 14:00 GMT, the ZEW Economic Sentiment for July dropped to 61.2 against the forecasted 79.0 and weighed on Euro that added further downward momentum in EUR/USD.

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment also declined in July and reached 63.3 against the predicted 75.0 and weighed on Euro, which added further loss in the EUR/USD pair. In May, the Retail Sales rose to 4.6% against the anticipated 4.3% and supported Euro that ultimately limited the downward pressure on EUR/USD pair. On the U.S. front, at 18:45 GMT, the Final Services PMI remained flat with the projections of 64.6. At 19:00 GMT, the ISM Services PMI declined to 60.1 against the anticipated 63.4 and weighed on the U.S. dollar, limiting the declining trend in EUR/USD pair.

The pressure surrounding the European currency increased after the release of the German and Euroland ZEW Economic Sentiment, which showed a weaker than expected future economic activity. The weak outlook for the Eurozone economy could be attributed to the rising number of cases across the region with the spread of the Delta variant of coronavirus. Europe has accelerated its vaccination rollout to fight the fast pace of Delta variant spread. However, it has not re-imposed restrictions that alarmed the investors and raised their fears about the economic recovery from the pandemic. This added weight on the Euro currency, and hence, the EUR/USD pair continued declining on Tuesday.

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1786 1.1876

1.1752 1.1930

1.1697 1.1965

Pivot Point: 1.1841

**

EUR/USD - Technical Outlook**

The EUR/USD is trading with a bullish bias at the 1.1833 level. The EUR/USD pair has formed a double bottom pattern that’s extending support at the 1.1808 level on the hourly timeframe. The closing of candles above this level supports a strong buying trend in the EUR/USD pair. The direct currency pair has the potential to soar until the next resistance area of 1.1842 level that’s being extended by a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. On the higher side, the violation of the 1.1842 level can expose the EUR/USD pair towards the 1.1862 (61.8% Fibo) level. The MACD is holding a selling zone, but the recent histograms are smaller than the previous ones. This demonstrates that the bears are getting exhausted, and bulls are looming around the corner. All the best!

Symmetrical Triangle Pattern

The BTC/USD was closed at $34168.0 after placing a high of $34168.0 and a low of $34108.0. After declining for the previous two sessions, BTC/USD managed to recover some portion of its earlier losses on Tuesday. Bitcoin saw a plunge in its price during early trading hours after China's central bank issued a notice to stop a company's operations immediately, which was allegedly providing cryptocurrency-related services. The People's Bank of China and the regulators in the capital city ordered the closure of a Beijing-based software manufacturer, Beijing Quadao Cultural Development Co. Ltd.

The authorities in China suspended the operations of the software firm. They took down the company's website as it was suspected to have ties with the trading of cryptocurrency. The government of China has already announced a ban on any service related to cryptocurrency within the limits of its country. On Tuesday, the People's Bank of China stated that no company should have any direct dealings with any crypto-related entities. The statement also noted that any company should provide no crypto-related venues, commercial displays, or advertisements.

This move to suspend a firm's operations was the latest in a long-running crackdown by the Chinese government on cryptocurrency. In May, the Chinese authorities issued an official statement to impose tighter regulations on crypto assets. In June, the country's central bank announced to terminate the account of any customer involved in the crypto-related activity. Meanwhile, the bitcoin mining facilities operating in China were also severely affected. Most of the miners were forced to close down their operations, and some chose to transfer their operations abroad. The rest of the miners have been provided with a deadline to cease their operations until the end of the year. This FUD created by China has been weighing on BTC/USD since its value peaked in April.

Additionally, Chinese miners' recent turning-off has also led to a massive drop in bitcoin's hash rate. Furthermore, the Brazilian detectives have reported arresting the President of Bitcoin Banco Group for allegedly defrauding investors more than $300 million. Claudio Oliveira, the self-proclaimed "Bitcoin King," was accused of apparently masterminding a 1.5 billion Brazilian Reals fraud through a cryptocurrency scheme that accounts for about $300 million.

On a positive note, the Ukrainian e-bank Monobank has put forward its interest to offer customers bitcoin trading by July. The bank has already applied to the Bank of Ukraine seeking approval of its application for a bitcoin debit card. This came in after the government of Ukraine was progressing to legislate the cryptocurrency. The Ukrainian government has been making progress towards regulating the cryptocurrency in the country. An official December 2020 report had shown that the Parliament of the country was considering the ominous crypto regulations in the country.

BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

33585.8 34776.6

33031.5 35413.1

32395.1 35967.4

Pivot Point: 34222.3

BTC/USD - Technical Outlook

On Wednesday, the leading cryptocurrency pair is trading with a slight bullish bias at 34,786, gaining support at 32,445. The technical side of Bitcoin remains primarily unchanged as it continues trading choppy in between a symmetrical triangle pattern. The support level is extended by an upward trendline on the 4- hour timeframe at 32,445 level. The Bitcoin is trying to cross below 50 periods EMA that's extending immediate support at 34,250. The bearish crossover of the 32,245 support level can expose Bitcoin price towards the next support area, 30,565 and 29.244 support areas. At the same time, the breakout of 36,650 resistance can expose BTC toward 38,555 areas. All the best!

Upward Channel Breakout

Gold prices were closed at $1791.30 after placing a high of $1794.65 and a low of $1784.75. Gold extended its gains and rose for 4th consecutive session on Monday. The gains were, however, very small as the yellow metal remained under consolidation. The surge in gold prices could be attributed to the latest weakness in the U.S. dollar after the latest U.S. jobs report eased investors' fears about earlier than an expected interest rate hike. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that measures the greenback value against the basket of six major currencies fell on Monday and turned red for the day.

The DXY fell and reached 92.14 level, which suggested weakness in the U.S. dollar against its rival currencies. Besides, the U.S. Treasury Yields on benchmark 10-year note also fell for the 6th consecutive session on Monday; however, the decline in yield was very little, which should be considered a flat movement for the day.

After a mixed data release on Friday from the U.S. Labor Department, the focus of investors shifted to minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's June policy meeting. The data revealed that companies in June hired many workers, the highest in 10 months; however, the unemployment remained higher than expectations. The pace of hourly earnings also showed slow growth, and workforce participation did not shift.

Meanwhile, the focus of investors on economic data and the next move from the Fed was strengthened by a rebound in the U.S. labor market. The markets were cheering the further evidence of strong economic recovery in worries about the persistent inflation. The minutes from Fed's latest June meeting are scheduled to release on Wednesday, which is expected to shed more light on policymakers' views on inflation and monetary policy.

Furthermore, the fast-spreading Delta variant of the COVID-19 has been driving up the number of cases in developing nations that also lack vaccine shots to fight the deadly surges. Their healthcare systems were also struggling to cope. In the past week, Indonesia has reached new highs in infection cases, and it has reported about 500 deaths per day. This daily average was also triple the size recorded in early June. Moreover, the Health Ministry of Israel revealed that it had recorded a steep drop in the efficacy rate of Pfizer and BioNtech vaccine in preventing coronavirus infections due to the spread of Delta variant and the easing of government restrictions. These developments raised fears in the market and supported the safe-haven metal prices on Monday.

Gold Intraday Technical Level

Support Resistance

1785.81 1795.71

1780.33 1800.13

1775.91 1805.61

Pivot Point: 1790.23

Gold - XAU/USD - Technical Outlook

Gold is trading with a bullish bias at the 1,802 level, having violated the resistance area of the 1,796 level. This exposes the precious metal gold towards the next resistance level of 1,825, extended by a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. On the lower side, the precious metal's support stays at 1,796 levels. On the 4 hour timeframe, gold has closed a bullish engulfing candle that's suggesting strong bullish bias in gold. The 50 EMA is also supporting buying trend along with the MACD. Therefore, gold has the potential to soar further higher until 1,825. All the best!

Symmetrical Triangle Pattern

The BTC/USD was closed at $33.668.0 after placing a high of$35,289.0 and a low of $33,479.2. Bitcoin dropped and reversed its course on Monday amid some negative developments surrounding the bitcoin environment. REvil, a Russian ransomware gang group, has reportedly pulled off the most significant ransomware attack in history. The hackers have deployed a vicious malware that has affected over 200 companies in the United States and over a million companies beyond the globe.

According to REvil, they have deployed a universal malware that has infected more than a million network systems. The hacker's group has now demanded to be paid in bitcoin worth $70 million before they would release the universal decryptor for more than a million infected systems.

Initially, the hackers asked each business to pay $45,000 in XRM, but now the group has revised its demands and was asking $70 million in bitcoin. The hacker group belongs to Russia that has been terrorizing businesses for a while now. This news added weight on BTC/USD, and the crypto suffered on Monday.

Furthermore, a 77-year-old woman in Indiana has reportedly become the latest victim of a cryptocurrency scam. She has approximately lost $12,000 to digital scammers who called her explaining that $500 had been withdrawn from her account by a cyberattack. The woman was provided with a number where she called and was instructed to buy $3500 in bitcoin from Coinbase. Nevertheless, the man on the other side offered the woman help through the buying process and got access to her smartphone and checking account. After that, a total of $12,300 was removed from her checking account. This news also added extra pressure on BTC/USD on Monday.

On the other hand, the bitcoin mining company named Marathon Digital Holdings recently revealed that the company mined about 265.6 bitcoin in June alone. The total amount for the whole second quarter is 654.3 bitcoins, out of which 265.6 were mined in a single month only. June's mining was 17% higher than the mining done in May.

Furthermore, a Dubai-based investment company named IBC Group has reportedly announced to end its bitcoin and ether mining operations in China. The decision came in after China banned the mining of cryptocurrencies in different provinces across the country. IBC Group has major mining facilities in China, and it has plans to distribute its operations to UAE, Canada, the USA, Kazakhstan, Iceland, and various South American countries. Recently, the group relocated its headquarters to Toronto, Canada.

Moreover, Pham Minh Chinh, the minister of Vietnam, has asked the State Bank of Vietnam to begin operating on a pilot project for a cryptocurrency. The blockchain-based project is expected to be completed between 2021 and 2023. The PM has taken the initiative as a development strategy towards a digital economy. The Prime Minister of Vietnam has reiterated the digital currency as "an inventible trend."

BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

33001.8 34811.6

32335.6 359955.2

31192.0 36621.4

Pivot Point: 34145.4

BTC/USD - Technical Outlook

Technically, the Bitcoin pair hasn't changed much as it continues to follow the same trading levels. It's trading with a slight bearish at 34,2886, gaining support at 32,445. The technical side of Bitcoin remains primarily unchanged as it continues trading choppy in between a symmetrical triangle pattern. The support level is extended by an upward trendline on the 4- hour timeframe at 32,445 level. The Bitcoin is trying to cross below 50 periods EMA that's extending immediate support at 34,250. The bearish crossover of the 32,245 support level can expose Bitcoin price towards the next support area, 30,565 and 29.244 support areas. At the same time, the breakout of 36,650 resistance can expose BTC toward 38,555 areas. All the best!

Double Top Breakout

The GBP/USD was closed at $1.3845 after placing a high of $1.3863 and a low of $1.3817. GBP/USD extended its gains for the third consecutive session on Monday amid weakness in the U.S. dollar. The British Pound found support on comments from the U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who announced that all restrictive measures would be lifted on July 19. Johnson said that while the country was still very far from the end of the pandemic, it was now or never to raise restrictive measures by taking advantage of the vaccine roll-out.

Johnson also noted that people would not be instructed to work from home despite the rising number of coronavirus. However, a final decision will be made on July 12. Restrictions were decided to lift in the upcoming days. However, border control was being maintained for the time being along with the red list of U.K. Johnson stated that he had plans to work with the travel industry to lift the quarantine restriction for fully vaccinated travelers upon arrival from amber list countries. Under the plans, nightclubs will be allowed to reopen, and there will be no limits on the capacity for hospitality venues. He also said that people under 40 would be requested for their second COVID-19 shots from eight weeks following their first dose, rather than 12 weeks.

There was no macroeconomic data on the data front to be released from the U.S. because of the national holiday for Independence Day. However, from the British side, at 13:30 GMT, the Final Services PMI in June rose to 62.4 against the expected 61.7 and supported British Pound that added further upward momentum in GBP/USD. Meanwhile, the BOE (Bank of England) has said that it will only require staff to operate in the office one day a week from September, in contrast to many City banks asking their workers to return to work on a full-time basis.

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.3821 1.3867

1.3797 1.3887

1.3776 1.3912

Pivot Point: 1.3842

GBP/USD - Technical Outlook

The GBP/USD pair is trading with a bullish bias at the 1.3883 level. The Cable has violated the double top resistance level of 1.3772 level, and the bullish crossover of this level exposes the pair towards the next target area of 1.3926 level. The support level continues to stay at 1.3872 level along with a resistance area of 1.3926 level. The 50 EMA supports the Sterling at the 1.3840 level, suggesting a robust bullish bias among investors. The pair has also entered the overbought zone; therefore, a slight bearish correction is imminent. The MACD is still supporting buying trends in the GBP/USD pair. Therefore, the traders will be keeping their eyes on 1.3870. All the best!

Upward Channel In Play

Gold prices were closed at $1787.55 after placing a high of $1795.90 and a low of $1774.40. Gold extended its gains for the 3rd consecutive session on Friday amid fresh weakness in the U.S. dollar and the benchmark U.S. Treasury yields. The U.S. Dollar Index that gauges the greenback worth against the basket of six major currencies reversed its course and broke its seven-day bullish streak and reached 92.23 level after touching 92.74, its highest since April 06. The Treasury Yield on benchmark 10-year note also dropped on Friday; the benchmark yield continued its bearish streak for the 5th consecutive session on Friday and reached 1.42%.

Gold extended its bullish movements on Friday over the concerns of the Delta variant of the coronavirus as it boosted the safe-haven appeal and turned on the risk-off market sentiment. On the other hand, the prospects of the U.S Federal Reserve tightening were also weighed by the U.S. jobs report that showed a slight rise in the unemployment rate.

At 17:30 GMT, the Average Hourly Earnings for June remained flat with the expectations of 0.3%. The Non-Farm Employment Change surged to 850K against the forecasted 725K and supported the U.S. dollar. The Unemployment Rate from June rose to 5.9% against the expected 5.6% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Trade Balance from May remained unchanged at -71.2B. At 19:00 GMT, the Factory Orders in May also remained flat with projections of 1.7%.

The U.S. Fed officials have recently suggested that the Central Bank start to taper its asset purchases this year. However, many analysts believe that the data failed to trigger a rush from the Fed to ease stimulus or begin interest rate hikes. The U.S. Treasury Yield and the DXY both fell after the report and pushed gold higher as lower treasury yields reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold. Meanwhile, the Delta variant of the coronavirus raised fears all over the globe after it started to spread fast in Asia and Europe.

On Friday, the WHO head (World Health Organization) said that the Delta variant of COVID-19 was discovered in at least 98 countries and was spreading quickly in countries with low and high vaccination coverage. During the biweekly press conference, Tedros Adhanom Gebreyesus urged leaders to push back against the daunting new coronavirus surges through increased vaccination efforts and public health measures. He also warned that delta had become the dominant strain in many countries, and if it continues, it will be a dangerous period of a pandemic. Two measures recommended by the chief of WHO all countries should adopt that to push back the rising cases of coronavirus included strong surveillance, early case detection, strategic testing, isolation, clinical care, social distancing, avoiding crowded areas, and keeping indoor spaces well ventilated.\Apart from public health and social measures, the second way Tedros suggested was the global sharing of protective gear, tests, oxygen, treatment, and vaccines.

The President of Iran, Hassan Rouhani, expressed fears that Iran will be hit by a new wave of coronavirus due to an outbreak of Delta variant in the Middle East’s hardest-hit country. Meanwhile, Dr. Anthony Fauci said that the U.S. would soon face a rising number of coronavirus cases of highly infectious Delta variants in areas where vaccination rates were low.

All the fuss about the Delta variant of coronavirus kept safe-haven appeal intact in the market and pushed gold prices higher on Friday.

Gold Intraday Technical Level

Support Resistance

1785.46 1787.66

1784.53 1788.93

1783.26 1789.86

Pivot Point: 1786.73

Gold - XAU/USD - Technical Outlook

Gold is trading with a bullish bias at the 1,789 level; however, it’s still maintaining a narrow trading range of 1,796 – 1,784 levels. On the 4 hour timeframe, gold is facing resistance at the 1,796 level that’s being extended by a 50% Fibonacci retracement level. On the higher side, a bullish breakout of 1,796 levels exposes gold price towards the next resistance area of 1,809. At the same time, gold’s support continues to hold around the 1,784 mark.

On the hourly timeframe, the 50 EMA is supporting bullish bias in metal. The bearish breakout of 1,784 exposes the metal towards the next support level of 1,776 level. The MACD is holding a bullish zone, demonstrating buying trend in gold. All the best!

Downward Channel In-Play

The EUR/USD was closed at $1.1864 after placing a high of$1.1875 and a low of $1.1806. After declining continuously for seven days, the EUR/USD pair broke its bullish streak and reversed its course later. The pair dropped to its lowest since April 06 on Friday during the first half of the day; however, after the release of U.S. macroeconomic data, the currency pair started moving in the opposite direction and ended its day with minor gains. On Friday, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remained under pressure and broke its seven-day bullish streak after the fears of Delta variant rises, and the U.S. jobs report data came in not-as-expected. The DXY reached 92.74 in the first half of the day but reversed its movement and turned down to 92.24 level on Friday after the release of the U.S. jobs report. The U.S. Treasury Yields on a 10-year note also fell to 1.42% after continuously declining for five consecutive sessions.

On data fronts, at 11:45GMT, the French Government Budget Balance was released as -118.8B. At 12:00 GMT, the Spanish Unemployment Change came in as -166.9K against the forecasted -110.5K and supported the single currency Euro and further caped loss in EUR/USD. AT 14:00 GMT, the PPI for May surged to 1.3%against the projected 1.2% and supported single currency Euro and limited the downward momentum in EUR/USD. From the U.S. side, at 17:30 GMT, the Average Hourly Earnings for June remained flat with the projections of 0.3%. The Non-Farm Employment Change rose to 850K against the expected 725K and supported the U.S. dollar that added loss in EUR/USD. The Unemployment Rate from June surged to 5.9% against the estimated 5.6% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and limited the downward trend in EUR/USD. The Trade Balance from May remained unchanged at -71.2B. At 19:00 GMT, the Factory Orders in May also remained flat with the predictions of 1.7%.

Meanwhile, countries across Europe were scrambling to accelerate their vaccination coverage to outpace the spread of deadly and highly infectious Delta variants of the coronavirus. Europe had plans to open up its economy for tourists in the summer holidays. Still, the rising number of coronavirus cases across the EU nations prompted governments to speed up the process of coronavirus vaccination. The main concern of the EU was to prevent its hospitals from filling up again with patients fighting for their lives and to avoid it, and the European nations started to race against the Delta variant of the coronavirus.

According to the European Centre for Disease Control, the risk of infection from the delta variant was high to very high for partially or unvaccinated communities. It is also estimated that the variant will account for 90% of cases in the EU’s 27 nations by the end of August. The ECDC warned that it was crucial to progress with the vaccine rollout at a very high pace. These concerns also kept the single currency Euro under pressure, and hence, EUR/USD pair suffered on Friday.

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1851 1.1867

1.1845 1.1877

1.1835 1.1882

Pivot Point: 1.1861

EUR/USD - Technical Outlook

On Monday, the EUR/USD is trading with a bullish bias at the 1.1849 level. On the hourly timeframe, the 50 periods EMA is supporting the pair at the 1.1849 level. Recently, the EUR/USD pair has formed a bullish engulfing candle that’s supporting buying trend. On the upper side, the EUR/USD’s next resistance stays at the 1.1879 level, and a bullish crossover of this level can expose the pair towards the 1.1910 level. The MACD is holding a buying zone and can drive more upward momentum in the market. Traders will be keeping an eye on the 1.1850 support level today as the bullish trend dominates over this level. All the best!

Symmetrical Triangle Pattern

The BTC/USD was closed at $34,758.0 after placing a high of $34,762.0 and a low of $33,561.6. Bitcoin surged on the weekend but with minor gains on hand and remained under consolidation as investors kept the coin moving in a tight range for the weekend. The U.S. Department of States’ undersecretary of state for political affairs, Victoria Nuland, has revealed through a press conference that the United States has urged El Salvador to be liable for the new law issued by the country. Nuland told the press that the U.S. was taking a tough look at bitcoin, and the Salvadoran president Nayib Bukele should also ensure that bitcoin was well regulated. Victoria Nuland said that she had a meeting with President Nayib Bukele over the crypto-asses bitcoin. She stressed to Bukele that the U.S. took another rugged look at bitcoin after the Colonial Pipeline ransomware case. She advised the president that regulations must be implied and that there should be transparency.

The world leaders have had issues with the new law signed by El Salvador. Even the World Bank rejected a request from El Salvador for assistance. The President of ECB, Christine Lagarde, also discussed the subject with disparagement as she reiterated that the ECB’s policy towards bitcoin has not changed. On the other hand, New York University professor Aswath Damodaran has stated in a recent interview that bitcoin has been neglected as a currency because it cannot be used to buy anything.

Furthermore, the news shocked the crypto market that fraudsters operating on the Darknet were now trading coronavirus vaccines and vaccination passports in exchange for digital assets. Some users on the notorious website Darkweb were reported to sell falsified vaccine certificates for coronavirus and stolen doses of vaccines in exchange for a variety of cryptocurrencies. The report suggested that one can buy ten shots of AstraZeneca product for $250 of equivalent cryptocurrency.

Conversely, the Global Investment Bank JP Morgan has anticipated that the recent price slump in bitcoin is expected to be over when the cryptocurrency’s dominance grows back over 50%. The analyst at JPMorgan explained that the declining trend in bitcoin would probably end when the cryptocurrency’s market share of all cryptocurrencies climbs back above 50%. He said it was near 60% at the beginning of April, and now the low market share was a negative signal that suggested a subdued interest in bitcoin.

As per the report by Tasnim News Agency, the Iranian Parliament has prepared a bill that will ban the use of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin for payments. The new bill drafted by Iranian lawmakers will prohibit all non-national cryptocurrencies for payments within the country. The primary motive behind the new bill was that the country was mulling over issuing its digital currency.

BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

35124.6 35617.6

34960.3 35946.3

34631.6 36110.6

Pivot Point: 35453.3

**

BTC/USD - Technical Outlook**

On Monday, the BTC/USD pair is trading with a slight bearish at 34,2886, gaining support at 32,445. The technical side of Bitcoin remains primarily unchanged as it continues trading choppy in between a symmetrical triangle pattern. The support level is extended by an upward trendline on the 4- hour timeframe at 32,445 level. The Bitcoin is trying to cross below 50 periods EMA that’s extending immediate support at 34,250. The bearish crossover of the 32,245 support level can expose Bitcoin price towards the next support area, 30,565 and 29.244 support areas. At the same time, the breakout of 36,650 resistance can expose BTC toward 38,555 areas. All the best!

Big Day – Eyes on NFP Figures!

Gold was closed at $1776.05 after placing a high of $1783.30 and a low of $1766.00. Gold extended its gains for a second consecutive session on Thursday as a more than 7% slide in June pushed traders to buy yellow metal amid concerns over the Delta variant of the coronavirus. However, these moves were also capped by the caution over the U.S. payroll data and a strong U.S. dollar.

The U.S. Dollar Index rose on Thursday as it continued its bullish streak for the 7th consecutive session and reached 92.60 level, its highest since April 06. The greenback remained strong across the board despite poor than expected ISM Manufacturing PMI data that helped yellow metal remain green for the day. However, the fears that the delta variant of the coronavirus was spreading fast across the globe raised concerns over economic recovery, and the safe-haven appeal emerged in the market that also supported the gains in yellow metal on Thursday.

On the data front, at 16:30 GMT, the Challenger Job Cuts for the year dropped to -88.0% compared to the previous -993.8%. At 17:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from last week declined to 364K against the expected 388K and supported the U.S. dollar, and capped further gains in gold. At 18:45 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI declined to 62.1 against the forecasted 62.6, weighed on the U.S. dollar, and pushed yellow metal higher. At 19:00 GMT, the ISM Manufacturing PMI also reduced to 60.6 against the projected 61.0 and weighed on the U.S. dollar and added further gains in gold. Construction Spending fell to -0.3% against the forecasted 0.4% and weighed on the U.S. dollar, and pushed gold prices higher. ISM Manufacturing Prices raised to 92.1 against the predicted 86.0 and supported the U.S. dollar. Wards Total Vehicle Sales also dropped to 15.4M against the projected 16.9M and weighed on the U.S. dollar and added further upside momentum in gold.

In June, gold posted its biggest monthly loss since November 2016, which is driven by the surprise hawkish tone from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Rising interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion that added pressure on the yellow metal.

This week, the focus of investors has remained on Friday’s non-farm payrolls report as it will provide clues on the timeline of the U.S. monetary policy shift. Federal Reserve officials have suggested that the central bank keep an eye on economic data to determine the tapering in asset purchases this year. The Reuters poll has predicted that this month there will be an addition of over 690,000 jobs, and if the expectations came true, then the dollar might see more strength.

Gold Intraday Technical Level

Support Resistance

1766.94 1784.24

1757.82 1792.42

1749.64 1801.54

Pivot Point: 1775.13

Gold - XAU/USD - Technical Outlook

On Friday, gold is trading sideways in between a tight trading range of 1,796 – 1,770 levels. It’s going to be a big day for gold as the U.S. economy is due to release its unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data. These two figures are the most-awaited and high-impact economic events as these typically drive massive price action in the market. The same we can expect today. On the 4 hour timeframe, gold is facing resistance at the 1,778 level that’s being extended by a downward trendline.

In contrast, the support level continues to hold around 1,770 levels. The bearish breakout of 1,770 exposes the metal towards the next support level of 1,753 level. The MACD is about to show a bullish crossover, and if this happens, the gold price will be exposed towards the next resistance are of 1,796. All the best!

ECB President Lagarde Speaks!

The EUR/USD closed at $1.1848 after placing a high of $1.1885 and a low of $1.1837. EUR/USD currency pair extended its losses and continued its bearish streak for the 4th consecutive session amid the strength in the U.S. dollar. The riskier asset EUR/USD dropped to its lowest level since April 06 as market sentiment turned to risk-off behavior. The U.S. dollar was onboard solid during Thursday’s trading session amid the rising fears of Delta coronavirus and ahead of the release of U.S. NFP data. The U.S. dollar index reached its highest level in 12 weeks at 92.60 and weighed heavily on EUR/USD.

On the data front, at 11:00 GMT, the German Retail Sales in May declined to 4.2% against the expectations of 4.5% and weighed on the single currency Euro. At 12:15 GMT, the Spanish Manufacturing PMI rose to 60.4 against the expected 59.6 and supported Euro. At 12:45 GMT, the Italian Manufacturing PMI remained flat with the expectations of 62.2. At 12:50 GMT, the French Final Manufacturing PMI rose to 59.0 against the projected 58.6 and supported Euro. At 12:55 GMT, the German Final Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged with a projection of 64.9. At 13:00 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI from the whole bloc also remained flat with the forecasts of 63.4. The Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate dropped to 10.5% against the forecasted 10.7% and supported the single currency Euro. At 14:00 GMT, the Unemployment Rate from the whole bloc also declined to 7.9% against the projected 8.0% and supported Euro.

From the U.S. side, at 16:30 GMT, the Challenger Job Cuts for the year declined to -88.0% compared to the previous -993.8%. At 17:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from last week reduced to 364K against the estimated 388K and supported the U.S. dollar that added further loss in EUR/USD. At 18:45 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI dropped to 62.1 against the predicted 62.6 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that capped further loss in EUR/USD. At 19:00 GMT, the ISM Manufacturing PMI also declined to 60.6 against the predicted 61.0 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that capped further loss in EUR/USD. Construction Spending dropped to -0.3% against the anticipated 0.4% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that limited the declining prices of EUR/USD. The ISM Manufacturing Prices surged to 92.1 against the estimated 86.0 and supported the U.S. dollar that added further loss in EUR/USD.

Meanwhile, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that the euro-zone economy might avoid the most pessimistic scenario predicted at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it still faces risks from variants mutations. ECB has started debating whether to cut back on its massive bond-buying program as the economy was recovering from its coronavirus-induced slump. Lagarde said that the improved economic outlook on rapid progress in vaccination campaigns had reduced the probability of severe scenarios. However, the emerging recovery still faces uncertainty due to the spread of virus mutations.

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1829 1.1877

1.1809 1.1905

1.1781 1.1925

Pivot Point: 1.1857

EUR/USD - Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD is trading with a bearish bias at the 1.1838 level as the major currency pair has violated the support level of 1.1850. On the downside, the breakout of 1.1845 exposes the direct currency pair towards the next support area of 1.1803 level. It’s going to be a big day for direct currency pairs like EUR/USD as the U.S. economy is due to release its unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data. These two figures are the most-awaited and high-impact economic events as these typically drive massive price action in the market. Let’s keep an eye on an immediate support level of 1.1830 level as above this, the bullish bias remains dominant, and below this, the bearish bias remains dominant. All the best!