GOLD Analysis – September 02, 2021
Symmetrical Triangle Pattern
After reaching a high of $1822.60 and a low of $1810.65, gold prices settled at $1815.55. The price of gold remained unchanged throughout the trading session on Wednesday. Investors remained cautious about placing large trades as they prepared for critical U.S. jobs data that could impact the Federal Reserve's tapering policy.
On Wednesday, the U.S. Dollar Index, which gauges the dollar's value against a range of six major currencies, maintained its bearish trend and fell for the fourth straight session. The DXY plummeted to 92.3, its lowest level in almost a month, before recovering some of its losses and closing the day at 92.5. Meanwhile, gold prices should have increased due to DXY's bearish trend, but the precious metal stayed under pressure and remained flat throughout the session.
On a 10-year Treasury note, the yield also declined on Wednesday, settling at 1.29 percent, after the U.S.'s main jobs statistics fell short of forecasts. According to the ADP National Employment Report, private firms in the United States employed many fewer people in August than expected. On the other hand, the greenback gained strength due to an increase in manufacturing activity in the United States.
The dollar's value affects gold prices because it makes bullion cheaper or more expensive for individuals who hold foreign currencies. Gold had little choice but to remain flat throughout Wednesday's trading session due to mixed macroeconomic data from the United States.
On the statistics front, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change fell to 374K in August, versus an anticipated 640K, weighing on the U.S. dollar and supporting gold prices at 17:15 GMT. The Final Manufacturing PMI for August was unchanged at 18:45 GMT, with predictions of 61.1.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI for August rose to 59.9 from 58.5 expected at 19:00 GMT, bolstering the U.S. dollar, which was weighing on the yellow metal. Construction spending was constant at 0.3 percent, as forecast. The ISM Manufacturing Prices fell to 79.4 in August, down from an expected 84.1, putting pressure on the currency and supporting gold.
After receiving a boost from the Fed last week following Chair Jerome Powell's speech, the precious metal likewise remained flat during the day. Despite the possibility of tapering starting this year, he stated that the central bank would be cautious when raising interest rates. He began to slip away from the predictions for a substantial amount of NFP jobs data, which is due on Friday.
Investors were also perplexed about making major purchases in precious metals due to the mixed two-important data about ADP job creation and the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which left gold with flat momentum.
GOLD Intraday Technical Level
Support Resistance
1809.94 1821.89
1804.32 1828.22
1797.99 1833.84
Pivot Point: 1816.27
GOLD - Technical Outlook
On Thursday, the precious metal continues to consolidate in a narrow trading range of 1,815 – 1,808 level. Gold is trading with a neutral bias at the 1,812 level. However, the metal entered the oversold zone, and now it's experiencing a bearish correction below 1,814 resistance levels. On the lower side, gold's immediate support prevails at 1,807, and 1,795 levels. Furthermore, the bearish breakout of the 1,795 level exposes gold prices towards the 1,785 level.
On the higher side, the breakout of the 1,814 level can expose the metal towards 1,821, 1,829 and 1,841 levels. On the hourly timeframe, the RSI level is holding in a selling zone. Thus, the odds of a selling bias remain strong until the 1,807 level. The bearish bias remains strong below the 1,814 level and vice versa. All the best.
EUR/USD Analysis – September 02, 2021
Weaker Dollar Continues to Push EUR/USD Higher
After hitting a top of $1.1858 and a low of $1.1793, the EUR/USD currency pair was settled at $1.1837. Despite the current weakening in the U.S. dollar, the currency pair EUR/USD resumed its bullish streak for the fourth straight day. On Wednesday, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar's value against a basket of six major currencies, declined for the fourth consecutive session, settling at 92.5. On Wednesday, U.S. Treasury yields on the benchmark 10-year note fell to 1.29 percent, adding to the dollar's weakness and pushing the EUR/USD currency pair higher on the board.
On Wednesday, U.S. Treasury yields on the benchmark 10-year note fell to 1.29 percent, adding to the dollar's weakness and pushing the EUR/USD currency pair higher on the board. The weakening of the U.S. dollar on Wednesday was fueled by the poor job creation by private firms in August.
Over the past several days, the dollar has been under pressure after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell struggled to provide a firm schedule for tapering and stated that the Fed would proceed with caution while raising interest rates. Investors were hoping for some signs from him about decreasing economic support, but no indication of when it may begin dashed their hopes, dragging on the U.S. dollar.
Furthermore, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann warned on Wednesday that Eurozone inflation could exceed the ECB's forecasts since the transient variables that caused the recent rise could sink into underlying price growth. He warned that if temporary causes lead to increased inflation expectations and faster wage growth, inflation could rise considerably in the long run.
Weidmann's statements raised optimism that the ECB will be forced to stop its $2.19 trillion PEPP economic stimulus program. These forecasts boosted the single currency Euro's strength versus the U.S. dollar, pushing EUR/USD higher on the board.
On the data front, German Retail Sales in July fell to -5.1 percent, vs. a forecast of -0.9 percent, weighing on the Euro and capping any advances in EUR/USD at 11:00 GMT. The Spanish Manufacturing PMI rose to 59.5 in August, beating expectations of 58.9, boosting the Euro, and pushing the EUR/USD higher at 12:15 GMT.
At 12:45 GMT, the Italian Manufacturing PMI increased to 60.9 from 60.1 previously, pushing the Euro higher and adding to the EUR/USD gains. The French Final Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 57.5 at 12:50 GMT. The German Final Manufacturing PMI remained constant at 12:55 GMT from the projected 62.7 in August. The August Final Manufacturing PMI from the entire bloc came in at 61.5, as expected, at 13:00 GMT.
The Italian unemployment rate fell to 9.3 percent in July, compared to an estimate of 9.6 percent, which boosted the Euro and pushed the EUR/USD pair higher. At 14:00 GMT, the unemployment rate for the entire E.U. remained unchanged from July, at 7.6%.
At 17:15 GMT, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change fell to 374K in August, vs. a forecast of 640K, weighing on the U.S. dollar, which led to further advances in the EUR/USD pair. The August Final Manufacturing PMI stayed unchanged at 18:45 GMT, with expectations of 61.1. For August, the ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 59.9 from 58.5 expected at 19:00 GMT, bolstering the U.S. dollar and capping further advances in EUR/USD. Construction spending was constant at 0.3 percent, as forecast.
The ISM Manufacturing Prices decreased in August to 79.4 from 84.1 expected, weighing on the U.S. dollar and adding an upward trend to the EUR/USD pair. The macroeconomic statistics from Europe favored the single currency Euro, which continued to underpin the EUR/USD currency pair's upward trend.
Apart from the Euro's strength and the dollar's weakness, the EUR/USD pair's gains and upward momentum can also be linked to the current risk-on market mentality, fueled by growing immunization rates worldwide. Despite the spread of the Delta variety and discovering a new mutant form in South Africa, the market remained upbeat as fully vaccinated people were allowed to cross international borders. The market's risk sentiment strengthened as chances for a quick economic rebound grew, and riskier assets such as the EUR/USD remained popular.
EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.1800 1.1865
1.1764 1.1894
1.1736 1.1930
Pivot Point: 1.1829
EUR/USD - Technical Outlook
The EUR/USD is trading with a bullish bias at the 1.1838 level and consolidating in between a tight trading range of 1.1857 – 1.1830 level. The breakout of the 1.1857 level exposes the pair towards the next resistance levels of 1.1866 and 1.1893 levels. Alternatively, a bearish breakout of the 1.1830 support level exposes the pair towards the 1.1802 and 1.1766 support zones. The 50 SMA (simple moving average) supports the buying trend, along with the Stochastic, which also suggests an upward trend in the EUR/USD.
Investors seemed to hesitate about entering the market ahead of the US NFP data that’s due on Friday. Let’s keep an eye on 1.1830 as bullish bias seems to dominate above this, and vice versa. All the best.
BTC/USD Analysis – September 02, 2021
Double Top Breakout at $49,350
After reaching a high of $49,102.0 and a low of $46,600.0, the BTC/USD pair closed at $48,844. On Wednesday, BTC/USD found some support and reversed its bearish trend, recouping some of its prior losses. Bitcoin prices have climbed closer to $50,000, owing to recent promising developments in the cryptocurrency market arena. Bitcoin prices have risen closer to $50,000, owing to recent encouraging results in the cryptocurrency market arena.
El Salvador's Legislative Assembly has passed legislation and established a $150 million Bitcoin Trust to help the country develop crypto infrastructure and services. On Tuesday, around 64 official voters voted in favor of the bill, while 14 voted against it. The Trust's mission is to convert Bitcoin into US dollars and fund the development of critical technology infrastructure to allow crypto assets to be widely adopted. The Development Bank of El Salvador will be in charge of the trust's activities.
This news came only a week before the contentious Bitcoin Law was supposed to take effect, giving BTC/USD a boost. El Salvador's Bitcoin Law will make BTC legal tender on September 7. Meanwhile, Twitter was said to be adding bitcoin as a payment option for content providers renewing their accounts on the platform. According to rumors, the corporation was using the lightning network to include a Bitcoin payment option for its new "Tip Jar" function.
The network's users will be directed through a Bitcoin lesson that will cover wallets and the Bitcoin lightning network in depth. The inclusion of Bitcoin tips was not surprising, given that Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey stated in July that bitcoin would play a significant role in the company's future. The debut date for this functionality has yet to be announced, but the news is that using the lightning network to include bitcoin as a payment mechanism for tips on Twitter gave BTC/USD a significant boost on Wednesday, with prices approaching $50,000.
The debut date for this functionality has yet to be announced, but the news is that using the lightning network to include bitcoin as a payment mechanism for tips on Twitter gave BTC/USD a significant boost on Wednesday, with prices approaching $50,000.
Furthermore, Belarus' President, Alexander Lukashenko, recently advised his compatriots to stay in Belarus and mine bitcoin rather than travel overseas for a low-paying job. He urged locals to work in their own country by mining bitcoin rather than traveling to Poland or Germany to fill farming positions. He offered mining as an alternative source of income, claiming that it could pay them more than being a farmer in Germany or Poland.
Bitcoin mining might be a viable enterprise in areas with inexpensive energy sources. Lukashenko advised his compatriots to take advantage of the opportunity to benefit from their own country's cheap energy supplies and earn more money while staying with their families. This announcement boosted the already-increasing value of BTC/USD.
The rising price of BTC/USD, on the other hand, could be related to the US dollar's current weakness. The dollar was weak on Wednesday, falling for the fourth straight session to 92.5 against the yen following the release of the ADP jobs report. In August, the US private sector added fewer jobs than predicted, severely impacting the currency.
Furthermore, the dollar was under pressure throughout the weekend due to waning hopes that the Fed Chair would make any signals regarding a tapering timeframe during the Jackson Hole symposium. The falling value of the US dollar boosted BTC/USD even more, as the two currencies have a negative connection.
BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
47262.0 49764.0
45680.0 50684.0
44760.0 52266.0
Pivot Point: 48182.0
BTC/USD - Technical Outlook
The leading cryptocurrency BTC/USD is trading with a bullish bias at 49,356 level, having disrupted the resistance level of 49,071 level. This resistance level was yesterday's high, and since Bitcoin has already violated the previous high, it's exposed to place a new high on Thursday.
On the resistance side, the pair's immediate resistance stays at 50,476, and breakout of this exposes the pair towards 51,880 levels. At the same time, the support continues to hold around 49,071 levels. A bearish breakout of this level exposes the pair towards 47,960 level. The Stochastic is holding in a buying zone, supporting an upward trend in Bitcoin today. All the best!
GOLD Analysis – September 01, 2021
Choppy Sessions in Play
Gold finished the day at $1817.15, with a top of $1821.85 and a low of $1803.75. On the strength of the day's weak U.S. dollar, gold went green on Tuesday, recouping some of its prior daily losses. The U.S. Dollar Index, which gauges the dollar's value against a basket of six major currencies, fell for the third straight session on Tuesday, reaching 92.40, its lowest level in 18 days. On the other hand, the yield on the benchmark 10-year note in the United States climbed to 1.316 percent on Tuesday.
The dollar came under pressure last week due to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Powell did not give any indication of when the central bank will begin tapering. The dollar was put under more pressure due to Powell's comments, and investors are now anticipating the release of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls data on Friday.
Investors feel that the NFP report will be crucial in the Federal Reserve's decision on whether or not to taper its stimulus programs. The market anticipates an increase of 728,000 jobs, a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.2 percent, and a 0.4 percent increase in average hourly earnings every month. If job creation meets or exceeds market estimates, it might be a game-changer, prompting the central bank to begin tapering faster than planned. However, if the data fall short of expectations, the dollar may suffer another bout of weakness, pushing the price of gold even higher towards $1900.
Gold gained 0.3 percent on the last trading day of August, and the fascinating thing was that the precious metal concluded the month with the same amount of gains. The good news is that gold managed to finish its monthly trading session above the $1800 barrier, indicating that it can cross the $1900 mark if the dollar's weakening continues. However, there was no evidence that these favorable stances were embraced in the market, and everyone's attention was drawn to the Fed's reduction of monetary assistance. Furthermore, the market's attention has switched this week to nonfarm payroll data.
On the data front, the Housing Price Index for June fell to 1.6 percent against a forecast of 1.9 percent at 18:00 GMT, weighing on the dollar and adding to gold's gains. The S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI for the year jumped to 19.1%, beating expectations of 18.7%, bolstering the U.S. dollar, and capping further advances in gold prices. For August, the Chicago PMI fell to 66.8 against a forecast of 68.0 at 18:45 GMT, weighing on the U.S. dollar and pushing yellow metal even higher. The C.B. Consumer Confidence Index fell to 113.8 from 122.9 expected at 19:00 GMT, weighing on the U.S. dollar and adding to yellow metal's gains in Tuesday's trading session.
GOLD Intraday Technical Level
Support Resistance
1806.65 1824.75
1796.15 1832.35
1788.55 1842.85
Pivot Point: 1814.25
GOLD - Technical Outlook
Gold is trading sideways, as its technical outlook hasn’t changed so far. Gold is trading with a neutral bias at the 1,815 level, heading north to retest the resistance level of 1,819. However, the metal entered the overbought zone, and now it's experiencing a bearish correction below 1,823 resistance levels. On the lower side, gold's immediate support prevails at 1,813, 1,807, and 1,795 levels. Furthermore, the bearish breakout of the 1,795 level exposes gold prices towards the 1,785 level.
On the higher side, the breakout of the 1,821 resistance level exposes the metal towards 1,829 and 1,841 levels. On the hourly timeframe, the RSI level is holding in a selling zone. Thus, the odds of a selling bias remain strong until the 1,807 level. The bullish bias remains strong above the 1,807 level and vice versa. All the best.
EUR/USD Analysis – September 01, 2021
Euro Consolidates a Narrow Range
After hitting a high of $1.1848 and a low of $1.1795, the EUR/USD ended the day at $1.1807. On Tuesday, the EUR/USD rose to its highest level since August 5th, owing to the sustained weakness of the US dollar and improving risk sentiment in the market. The US Dollar Index fell for the third straight session on Tuesday, reaching 92.40, its lowest level in more than two weeks, supporting the EUR.USD currency pair's rising prices. After Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish statements regarding unwinding monetary stimulus at the Jackson Hole symposium, the greenback was already sluggish across the board. Investors' attention has now switched to the release of the NFP report on Friday this week.
Investors were looking forward to the August job creation data, which is revealed on Friday and is predicted to climb to 728,000. Any number above this level would strengthen the US dollar, while any figure below will add to the greenback's losses.
On the statistics front, the French Consumer Spending in July fell to -2.2 percent, down from 0.1 percent expected, weighing on the single currency Euro and capping any advances in EUR/USD at 11:45 GMT. The French Prelim CPI for August increased to 0.6 percent, compared to the projected 0.4 percent, boosting the Euro and adding to the EUR/USD currency pair's gains. The French preliminary GDP for the quarter increased to 1.1 percent, up from 0.9 percent expected, boosting the single currency Euro and pushing the EUR/USD pair higher. The German Unemployment Change fell to -53K at 12:55 GMT, versus a forecast of -40K, bolstering the single currency Euro and adding to the EUR/upward USD's trend.
At 14:00 GMT, the CPI Flash Estimate for the year jumped to 3.0 percent, beating expectations of 2.7 percent, boosting the Euro, and adding to the EUR/USD pair's gains. The Core CPI Flash Estimate also increased to 1.6 percent, up from 1.5 percent expected, bolstering the Euro and adding upward momentum to the EUR/USD pair. The Italian Prelim CPI for August increased to 0.5 percent, up from 0.4 percent predicted, boosting the single currency Euro and pushing the EUR/USD currency pair higher.
The US Housing Price Index for June fell to 1.6 percent, versus a forecast of 1.9 percent, at 18:00 GMT, weighing on the US dollar, which added to the EUR/USD pair's advances. The S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI for the year rose to 19.1 percent from 18.7 percent expected, bolstering the US dollar and capping further advances in the EUR/USD pair. For August, the Chicago PMI dipped to 66.8 against an estimate of 68.0 at 18:45 GMT, weighing on the US Dollar and pushing the EUR.USD currency pair higher. The CB Consumer Confidence Index fell to 113.8 from 122.9 expected at 19:00 GMT, weighing on the US dollar and adding to advances in the EUR.USD pair on Tuesday's trading session.
Due to better-than-expected macroeconomic data released on Tuesday, the single currency Euro was high onboard versus the greenback, pushing the EUR/USD to its highest level in four weeks. Meanwhile, as the global vaccination rate rose, the improved market risk sentiment helped to the upward momentum of the riskier currency pair EUR/USD. Despite the rapid transmission of the Delta variation and the revelation of a novel coronavirus variant in South Africa, the market's risk appetite remained high as vaccine injection accelerated worldwide. Europe has even begun administering vaccination shots to the general public in shopping malls and supermarkets. Many nations have opened their borders to fully vaccinated citizens, enhancing market risk sentiment by increasing economic recovery optimism.
EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.1786 1.1839
1.1764 1.1870
1.1732 1.1893
Pivot Point: 1.1817
EUR/USD - Technical Outlook
On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair was trading with a neutral bias as it consolidates in between a narrow trading range of 1.1816 – 1.1795 level. The breakout of the 1.1816 level exposes the pair towards the next resistance levels of 1.1840 and 1.1866 levels. Alternatively, a bearish breakout of the 1.1795 support level exposes the pair towards the 1.1765 and 1.1735 support zones. The 50 SMA (simple moving average) supports the selling trend, while the Stochastic also suggests a downward trend in the EUR/USD.
Investors seemed to hesitate about entering the market ahead of the US NFP data that’s due on Friday. Today, the major focus will remain on the ADP Non-farm payroll data from the US. All the best.
BTC/USD Analysis – September 01, 2021
Major Resistance at 47,485
The BTC/USD closed at $47,157.0 after placing a high of $48,241.0 and a low of $46,725.0. BTC/USD continued its bearish streak for the 4th consecutive session on Tuesday amid the recent market sell-off. The former United States President, Donald Trump, said that cryptocurrencies were fake as nobody knew what they were as many people do not know anything about them. When asked about his views on the health of Wall Street markets and the potential of bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market, Trump said that he liked the currency of the United States and called the other currencies the ones waiting for a disaster to happen.
Trump further asked to put the protection and sovereignty of the U.S. dollar as a priority rather than grasping the overwhelming benefits of blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies. These comments from Donald Trump added to the declining prices of BTC/USD on Tuesday and dragged them further to the downside.
Furthermore, a billionaire hedge fund manager and the president of the U.S. investment firm Paulson & Co., John Paulson, has shared his views on cryptocurrencies. Paulson became famous in 2007 for shorting the U.S. housing market as he foresaw the upcoming mortgage crisis and bet against mortgage-backed securities by investing in credit default swaps.
On Tuesday, Paulson shared his views on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and said that he was not a believer in cryptocurrencies. He described the digital coins as a bubble and said that they were a limited supply of nothing. He elaborated that there was no intrinsic value to any cryptocurrency except a limited amount.
Paulson continued bashing cryptocurrencies and said that regardless of where they were trading today, they would eventually prove to be worthless. He said that he would not recommend anyone to invest in cryptocurrencies as once the exuberance wears off and the liquidity dries up, and they will go to zero. He also explained that even if he believes that bitcoin will end up declining in the long-term future, he will not short bitcoin as if he does so, he would be wiped out in the short term. These comments from Paulson added a further negative stance to the ecosystem of bitcoin, and BTC/USD raised its losses on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, a report suggested that Venezuelan authorities were looking for a scammer accused of disappearing with about 23.66 BTC worth of $1.15 million from the account of his clients after faking his kidnapping.
The police issued a report which stated that a 23-year-old citizen was wanted by the country’s largest national police agency over charges of suspected money laundering and fraud. Authorities believe that the person staged his abduction as his clients' accounts at Binance have emptied since his disappearance. This news about another bitcoin scam added to the negative stance of BTC/USD and added further loss to its prices on Tuesday.
BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
46507.6 48023.6
45858.3 48890.3
44991.6 49539.6
Pivot Point: 47374.3
BTC/USD - Technical Outlook
The leading cryptocurrency BTC/USD is mostly unchanged and trading with a bearish bias at the 47,266 level, having violated the pivot point support level of 47,600 level. On the downside, the pair is facing another support at the 46,267 level. However, the 46,267 support level breakout exposes the BTC/USD pair to 45,531 and 44,207 support zones.
Moreover, an additional breakout of 44,207 levels exposes the BTC towards 43,050 support levels. Conversely, the breakout of the 47,600 resistance level exposes the Bitcoin towards the 48,327 and 49,650 levels. The RSI and 50 EMA support a selling bias. Therefore, the focus should remain on 47,600 as the selling bias remains dominant below this level and vice versa. All the best!
GOLD Analysis – August 31, 2021
Gold Completes 38.2% Correction
After hitting a high of $1826.30 and a low of $1809.95, gold prices settled at $1812.80. Gold fell on Monday as risk appetite increased in the market following US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's easing concerns over the rapid withdrawal of pandemic-era stimulus. That weighed heavily on the yellow metal's safe-haven appeal.
Powell did not say if the central bank planned to trim its asset purchases in a speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. Still, he did say that raising interest rates will be an eventual choice as the central bank closely monitors the incoming data.
The US Dollar Index, which gauges the dollar's value against a bundle of six major currencies, stayed range-bound but turned positive for the day at 92.79. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note in the United States decreased to 1.27 percent on Monday, limiting the loss of precious metals.
On the data front, the Pending Home Sales in July fell to -1.8 percent versus a forecast of 0.5 percent at 19:00 GMT, weighing on the US dollar and limiting the fall of yellow metal on Monday.
On Monday, gold prices rose to their highest level since August 4, owing to reports that South African scientists had discovered a novel coronavirus variety with numerous mutations. This news boosted gold's safe-haven appeal, but gold couldn't maintain its high level for long, and it began to fall as risk appetite returned to the market.
Furthermore, the market's optimism has returned after Brussels' health authorities began distributing COVID-19 vaccinations at supermarkets and shopping malls to boost vaccination rates in the country. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom recorded 26,476 new coronavirus cases, the lowest number since August 10 and adding to the risk appetite.
Jko Widodo, Indonesia's President, stated that the government would change the limitations to prevent the outbreak of Covid-19 during the week of August 31 to September 6. The decrease in the number of daily injections in the nation prompted this decision, which contributed to an increased risk appetite in the market. On Monday, the yellow metal was under pressure due to growing expectations that the economy would soon expedite its rebound after more countries reopened and vaccination rates increased worldwide.
GOLD Intraday Technical Level
Support Resistance
1806.40 1822.75
1800.00 1832.70
1790.05 1839.10
Pivot Point: 1816.35
GOLD - Technical Outlook
Gold is trading with a bullish bias at the 1,818 level, heading north to retest the resistance level of 1,819. However, the metal entered the overbought zone, and now it's experiencing a bearish correction below 1,823 resistance levels. On the lower side, gold's immediate support prevails at 1,813, 1,807, and 1,795 levels. Furthermore, the bearish breakout of the 1,795 level exposes gold prices towards the 1,785 level.
On the higher side, the breakout of the 1,821 resistance level exposes the metal towards 1,829 and 1,841 levels. On the hourly timeframe, the RSI level is holding in a selling zone. Thus, the odds of a selling bias remain strong until the 1,807 level. The bullish bias remains strong above the 1,807 level and vice versa. All the best.
EUR/USD Analysis – Aug 31, 2021
Bullish Bias Dominates
After hitting a top of $1.1810 and a low of $1.1782, the EUR/USD pair ended the day at $1.1795. On Monday, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged during the trading session, despite conflicting investor sentiment for the day.
The US Dollar Index, which determines the dollar's value against a range of six major currencies, was also consolidating, remaining green near the 92.79 marks, keeping the EUR/USD pair under pressure. On the other hand, increased risk appetite in the market continued to underpin the EUR/USD currency pair, which stayed in a tight range with no movement for the day.
On the other hand, increased risk appetite in the market continued to underpin the EUR/USD currency pair, which stayed in a tight range with no movement for the day. The market's risk appetite soared when reports of optimism worldwide about the reopening of borders and rising vaccination rates surfaced.
The Brussels-Capital Region has stated that it intends to reach a vaccination rate of 65 percent by the end of October to avert the fourth wave's ramifications. Brussels' health authorities have begun providing vaccination shots at retail malls and supermarkets to raise immunization rates. This action sparked hope that the economic recovery would quickly pick up, and risk appetite returned to the market, pushing the EUR/USD higher.
On the other hand, the World Health Organization worried about increased coronavirus transmission rates in Europe on Monday. According to Hans Kluge, the agency's Europe head, the number of fatalities in Europe increased by 11% over the previous week. Given the increased transmission rate, the WHO estimates that 236,000 people will die in Europe by Dec 1. This WHO prognosis put more pressure on the single currency Euro, which erased all of its gains for the day, dragging the EUR/USD pair lower.
On the economic event front, the German Prelim CPI for August fell to 0.0 percent from 0.1 percent expected, weighing on the Euro and keeping the EUR/USD under pressure. The Spanish Flash CPI for the year rose to 3.3 percent at 12:00 GMT, beating the expected 3.0 percent, boosting the single currency Euro and pushing EUR/USD higher.
Pending Home Sales in July plummeted to -1.8 percent in July, compared to the projected 0.5 percent, weighing on the US currency and pushing EUR/USD higher at 19:00 GMT. Mixed data from Europe aided the EUR/consolidated USD's advance, and the pair stayed range-bound throughout Monday's trading day.
EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.1782 1.1810
1.1768 1.1824
1.1754 1.1838
Pivot Point: 1.1796
EUR/USD - Technical Outlook
On Tuesday, the EUR/USD exhibited a solid bullish bias as it traded at the 1.1828 level. On the hourly chart, the direct currency pair has violated the ascending triangle pattern extending resistance at 1.1810. For now, the EUR/USD is exposed to the next resistance level of 1.1837 level. Furthermore, the breakout of the 1.1837 level exposes the pair towards 1.1851.
On the flip side, immediate support prevails at 1.1823 and 1.1810 levels. The 50 SMA (simple moving average) supports the buying trend, while the Stochastic also suggests a bullish trend in the EUR/USD.
On the downside, the breakout of the support level of 1.1810 levels exposes the pair towards 1.1796 and 1.1783 levels. Therefore, the traders will focus on the 1.1810 level, as above this, the bullish bias dominates and vice versa. All the best.
BTC/USD Analysis – Aug 31, 2021
Bitcoin on a Bearish Run
After reaching a high of $48,915.7 and a low of $46,904.0, the BTC/USD pair was closed at $47,008.0. During the latest sell-off in the cryptocurrency market, BTC/USD resumed its bearish trend for the third session, dropping below on Monday.
Bitcoin prices fell on Monday as citizens of El Salvador took to the streets to protest the planned Bitcoin Law, which is slated to go into force on Sept 7. Following that date, all economic interests in the nation will be supposed to accept Bitcoin as a form of payment alongside the dollar.
According to El Salvador's President, Nayib Bukele, the new legislation will benefit the people and save $400 million in remittance fees. He also stated that the regulation would ensure that financial transactions are quick and secure.
Despite the ostensible benefits, hundreds of protestors came to the streets to voice their opposition to the measure. Workers, retirees, and veterans made up most protesters, raising worries about Bitcoin's volatility and instability. On Monday, this news added to the downward pressure on BTC/USD values.
Meanwhile, John Paulson, a millionaire portfolio manager, has openly questioned cryptocurrencies' unpredictable character. Instead of bitcoin, he urged prospective investors to choose traditional financial assets such as gold. Cryptocurrencies, according to Paulson, have a finite amount of nothing and no intrinsic value. He advised against investing in cryptocurrencies, citing the assets' increased volatility as the reason. BTC/USD values fell on Monday due to these nasty remarks from a billionaire portfolio manager.
In addition, Bill Gurley, a venture capitalist, and partner at Benchmark, a Silicon Valley venture capital company in San Francisco, California, has expressed his thoughts on cryptocurrency. He stated that he was late to the crypto game since he didn't devote enough time. He stated that he conducted extensive research before deciding on Ethereum over bitcoin. The venture investor stated that it was a personal investment rather than one for his company, and he also declined to reveal the total sum put in ETH. The notion that the Ethereum crowd convinced him weighed on Bitcoin prices a little, resulting in a loss of BTC/USD on Monday.
BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
47879.4 49685.4
46958.7 50570.7
46073.4 51491.4
Pivot Point: 48764.7
BTC/USD - Technical Outlook
On Tuesday, the leading cryptocurrency BTC/USD is trading with a bearish bias at the 47,166 level, having violated the pivot point support level of 47,600 level. On the downside, the pair is facing another support at the 46,267 level. However, the 46,267 support level breakout exposes the BTC/USD pair to 45,531 and 44,207 support zones.
Moreover, an additional breakout of 44,207 levels exposes the BTC towards 43,050 support levels. Conversely, the breakout of the 47,600 resistance level exposes the Bitcoin towards the 48,327 and 49,650 levels. The RSI and 50 EMA support a selling bias. Therefore, the focus should remain on 47,600 as the selling bias remains dominant below this level and vice versa. All the best!
GOLD Analysis – Aug 30, 2021
Bearish Correction In-Play
After hitting a top of $1821.90 and a low of $1785.20, the XAU/USD was finished at $1819.50. Gold prices jumped dramatically on Friday after remaining range-bound for several days. On Friday, gold hit a three-week high amid broad-based dollar weakening fueled by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent address.
The US Dollar Index, which measures the dollar's value against a range of six major currencies, dropped dramatically to 92.63 on Friday, putting pressure on the greenback. On a 10-year Treasury note, the yield also fell on Friday, reaching as low as 1.3 percent after climbing over the previous three days.
The decline of the US dollar fueled a spike in gold prices on the final day of the week. At the Jackson Hole symposium, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell struggled to provide any hints on the timing for slowing asset purchases, putting the greenback under pressure. Powell stated that the US economy was on track but that the US was still susceptible to the coronavirus pandemic's threats.
The Fed chair stated that if the epidemic spreads further from the Delta variety, he will reconsider his previous position, which was that tapering could commence by the end of the year. He went on to say that while the substantial additional progress requirement for inflation has been met, and there has been demonstrable headway toward maximum employment, the Fed will be closely monitoring incoming data and emerging risks before deciding on tapering. Even if asset purchases stop, Powell believes that the increased holdings of longer-term securities will sustain accommodating financial conditions.
Since March 2020, the Federal Reserve has been buying around $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities per month to help the US economy recover from pandemic-related economic devastation. Another action done by the central bank was to cut interest rates to near-zero and 0.25 percent, which is a new low.
The central bank's stimulus program has been blamed for escalating price pressures in the US, and investors believe the Fed will give indications about withdrawing stimulus backing at a Jackson Hole symposium. However, the Fed maintained its stance on tapering and gave no such signals, putting more pressure on the US currency and pushing yellow metal higher on the board.
On the data front, the Core PCE Price Index for July stayed unchanged at 17:30 GMT, despite predictions of a 0.3 percent increase. The July Goods Trade Balance showed a shortfall of -86.4 billion dollars, vs a forecast of -90.8 billion dollars, which bolstered the US dollar and capped further advances in gold prices. Personal income increased by 1.1 percent in July, compared to an anticipated 0.2 percent, bolstering the US dollar. In July, personal spending fell to 0.3 percent, compared to an anticipated 0.4 percent, weighing on the US dollar and adding to the yellow metal's gains.
The Prelim Wholesale Inventories fell to 0.6 percent in July, vs. a forecast of 1.0 percent, bolstering the US dollar and halting the yellow metal's upward trend. August's Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment fell to 70.3 from 70.9 expected at 19:00 GMT, weighing the US dollar and pushing precious metals higher. In August, the Revised UoM Inflation Expectations stayed unchanged from the previous month, at 4.6 percent.
GOLD Intraday Technical Level
Support Resistance
1820.21 1821.96
1819.38 1822.88
1818.46 1823.71
Pivot Point: 1821.13
GOLD - Technical Outlook
On Monday, gold was trading with a bullish bias at the 1,813 level. However, the metal entered the overbought zone and now it’s experiencing a bearish correction below 1,823 resistance levels. On the lower side, gold’s immediate support prevails at 1,807 and 1,795 levels. Furthermore, the bearish breakout of the 1,795 level exposes gold prices towards the 1,785 level.
On the higher side, the breakout of the 1,821 resistance level exposes the metal towards 1,829 and 1,841 levels. On the hourly timeframe, the RSI level is holding in a selling zone. Thus, the odds of a selling bias remain strong until the 1,807 level. The bullish bias remains strong above the 1,807 level and vice versa. All the best.