U.S. CPI & E.U. Economic Forecasts Ahead!

The EUR/USD rose to its highest since February 25 on Tuesday amid the news that the European Commission expects to finish work soon on a COVID-19 certificate that could allow citizens to travel more efficiently this summer in the bloc. According to an E.U. executive, the pass would allow the vaccinated, recovered from COVID-19 or with negative test results to cross borders in a union where restrictions on movement have weighed heavily on the travel and tourism industry for more than a year.

The Commission president said that it was working closely to inform the United States, the World Health Organization, and others about its progress to allow the certificate to be used on a broader scale. However, the European Parliament has said that no one will be obliged to use the E.U. certificate, and it must not be considered a vaccine passport. Another reason behind the rising prices of EUR/USD pair was the positive hopes for the summer holiday season as the vaccination campaigns in the E.U. were gaining speed with 200 million jabs being delivered a day along with the declining infection rates and the reopening of cities and beaches in the E.U.

The German Europe Minister Michael Roth said that the E.U. certificate was necessary for countries depending on tourism. Still, it was important for all countries as it was a clear signal for freedom of movement and mobility in the European Union. This added strength to the single currency Euro and pushed EUR/USD pair higher on Tuesday.

On the data front, at 11:00 GMT, the German WPI for April reduced to 1.1% against the expected 1.8% and weighed on the single currency Euro that capped further upside in EUR/USD pair. At 13:00 GMT, the Italian Industrial Production for March also declined to -0.1% against the forecasted 0.5% and weighed on Euro, limiting the upside momentum in EUR/USD pair. At 14:00GMT, the ZEW Economic Sentiment from the whole bloc for May rose to 84.0 against the projected 68.0 and supported Euro that added further EUR/USD pair gains.

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment also surged to 84.4 against the projected 72.0 and supported Euro that pushed EUR/USD pair even higher. From the U.S. side, at 15:00 GMT, the NFIB Small Business Index came in line with the projections of 99.8. At 19:00 GMT, the JOLTS Job Openings rose to 8.12M against the estimated 7.50M and supported the U.S. dollar that limited the rising prices of EUR/USD on Tuesday. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) also remained under pressure on Tuesday and dropped below the $90 level that also supported the rising prices of the EUR/USD pair. Furthermore, the scientists in France have warned of a race between variants and vaccinations. He said that a fourth wave of the pandemic would be unmanageable due to medical staff's summer heat and exhaustion. This warning came in after France reported 20 new cases of the Indian variant in the country.

According to WHO, the Indian variant of coronavirus was a more contagious and global concern. It is considered responsible for the explosive second wave of coronavirus in India as WHO suspected that this virus might also have some resistance to antibodies. The rising fears that the Indian variant of coronavirus has entered the European Union could unleash the fourth wave of coronavirus. That added pressure on the single currency Euro and further capped gains in EUR/USD pair on Tuesday.

EURUSD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2112 1.2163

1.2094 1.2196

1.2061 1.2214

Pivot Point: 1.2145

EUR/USD - Technical Outlook 

The EUR/USD is trading slightly bearish at 1.2126, having completed 23.6% Fibonacci retracement on the 4-hour timeframe. Recently, the single currency Euro has closed "Three Black Crows" on the 4-hour timeframe, which suggests odds of bearish trend continuation in the market. That being said, the EUR/USD's next support holds around 1.2104 level that's extended by 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Continuation of further selling trend and violation of 1.2104 level exposes the pair towards 1.2058 (61.8% Fibo level). A similar support level of 1.2058 extended by 20 & 50 periods of EMA level on the daily timeframe. On Wednesday, the trader's focus will stay on the U.S. Inflation figures as these figures can drive strong price action in the market. Economists expect CPI to drop from 0.6% to 0.2%, while the Core CPI data is expected to be neutral. Lastly, the E.U. economic forecasts from European Commission will also remain under the spotlight today. All the best!

Ascednign Triangle Breakout

Gold prices were closed at $1836.85 after placing a high of $1846.15 and a low of $1830.60. On Monday, gold held firm near a three-month high after dismal U.S. jobs growth number kept the dollar under pressure and raised expectations that interest rates will remain low for some time.

On Friday, the U.S. nonfarm payroll data disappointed the investors after it showed unexpectedly slow job growth in April and pushed the dollar down towards a 2-month lowest level, and made gold more appealing for the holders of other currencies.

The hopes of investors’ that the world’s largest economy might start recovering soon and that the U.S. Federal Reserve will start tightening the policy earlier than expected faded away after the lower-than-expected U.S. jobs growth in April.

On Monday, U.S. President Joe Biden urged employers to help get more of their workers vaccinated as it would boost the economy. Biden also touted the upcoming $350 billion in federal aid to state and local governments to help more parents get child care and return to work.

Biden also said that the ransomware attack that led to the shutdown of the Colonial Pipeline was a criminal act and vowed that his administration would take this matter very seriously.

Meanwhile, the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said on Monday that the Fed officials would like to see higher inflation, more wage growth, and several months of strong employment gains averaging 1 million jobs added before considering adjusting monetary policy. Evans said that it was a little more complicated as the economy has been restarted and many sectors were experiencing growing pains. He hoped that the slow job growth in April was just a one-month kind of thing and that the employment will be better after-wards.

There was no macroeconomic data released on Monday from the U.S., and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that measures the value of the greenback against the basket of six major currencies rose a little on Monday and reached a $90.34 level. The U.S. Treasury yields on a 10-year note also reached above 1.60% and supported the U.S. dollar that kept gold prices under pressure. Gold remained flat throughout the trading session on Monday and failed to give any significant move to its investors.

Gold Intraday Technical Level

Support Resistance

1833.51 1838.86

1830.13 1840.83

1828.16 1844.21

Pivot Point: 1835.48

Gold - XAU/USD - Technical Outlook

Technical side of gold hans’t changed a lot as it continues trading with bullish bias at 1,837 level, having disrupted an ascending triangle pattern on the daily chart. On the higher side, the violation of the 1,800 level has triggered a robust dramatic buying trend in gold; therefore, the precious metal is heading towards the next resistance level of 1,856 level. The precious metal has closed three white soldiers pattern that's keeping gold's trading sentiment strongly bullish on the daily timeframe. The EMA and RSI are in support of a buying trend today. Gold's next resistance stays at 1,840 and 1,856, while the support remains at 1,833 and 1,819 levels. All the best!

Fibonacci Extension in Play!

The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.2129 after placing a high of 1.2178 and a low of 1.2127. After rising for three consecutive sessions, the EUR/USD pair dropped on Monday and broke its bullish streak after Euro came under pressure from contradicting messages from ECB members. According to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks, the European Central Bank could choose to cut down its bond-buying program as early as next month if the Eurozone economy continues showing signs of growth and recovery.

Kazaks said that the economy would need significant monetary stimulus well beyond the end of the pandemic. The monetary stimulus that has been delivered by emergency bond purchases, negative interest rates, and targeted long-term loans that keep banks’ credit for companies and households loose. Kazaks added no current reason to believe PEPP will be extended beyond its March 2022 end date and said that economic developments might even allow the ECB to finish the program without using up the entire 1.85 trillion euros.

On the other hand, another ECB official Olli Rehn said that ECB should also adopt the Fed’s approach of allowing inflation to rise above the 2% target to compensate for past misses. This would mean keeping the policy loose for longer. The difference of opinions from different ECB officials kept Euro under pressure and weighed on EUR/USD pair.

On the data front, at 13:30 GMT, the Sentix Investor Confidence rose to 21.0 against the forecasted 14.9 and supported Euro that capped further losses in EUR/USD pair on Monday. There was no macroeconomic data from the U.S. front for the session, so the currency pair remained under pressure.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that measures the value of the greenback against the basket of six major currencies, surged a little on Monday and reached a $90.34 level that supported the U.S. dollar and added further losses in EUR/USD pair. The U.S. Treasury yields on a 10-year note also rose and reached above 1.60%, pushing the U.S. dollar higher and keeping EUR/USD under pressure.

Europe has delivered about 200 million coronavirus vaccine doses to its people. Eurozone has reached closer to achieving its goal of inoculating 70% of its adult population by summer. As the infection rate has plunged and the vaccination rate has increased, Europe has started reopening its cities and beaches, and the hopes have been increased that this summer’s holiday season could be saved before it is too late. The reopening of European countries and international travel from Summer played an essential role in keeping the losses of EUR/USD par limited on Monday.

EURUSD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2161 1.2180

1.2150 1.2188

1.2142 1.2199

Pivot Point: 1.2169

EUR/USD - Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD is trading with a bullish bias at the 1.2144 level. The single currency is gaining bullish momentum against the U.S. dollar amid weaker than expected non-farm payroll data. The EUR/USD pair has closed a bullish engulfing pattern that suggests odds of a strong bullish trend in the EUR/USD pair on the daily timeframe. On the higher side, the pair faces resistance at 1.2177 level. The breakout of this exposes the EUR/USD pair until the 1.2250 level. On the lower side, the pair gains support at 1.2085, which is extended by 20 & 50 periods of EMA level. Below 1.2085, the EUR/USD’s next support stays at the 1.2050 level. The primary focus will remain on the technical levels, as the economic calendar isn’t scheduled to report any significant event today. All the best!

Ethereum Completes 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement!

The ETH/USD crypto pair failed to extend its previous-day uptrend rally and dropped well below the $3,800 level from its record high of $4,213.46. Not only Etherum but all crypto assets experienced a sudden drop overnight. In that way, the ETH/USD prices pulling back firmly after reaching a record above $4,200. However, the reason for the reduction in values wasn’t immediately apparent. Still, we can attribute this to the recent declines in the S&P 500 SPX, -1.04%, Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.10%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index. Apart from this, the losses were further bolstered by the stronger US dollar. The prevalent bullish bias around the US dollar was mainly sponsored by the downbeat market sentiment, which tends to undermine safe-haven assets like the US dollar. The ETH/USD pair price is trading well below the 3,900 level and consolidating in the range between 3,781.86 - 4,025.11.

Despite the ongoing optimism over the COVID-19 vaccination, the market trading sentiment failed to extend its previous-day positive performance and turned sour on the day. However, the selling bias was completely sponsored by the Uncertainty over Fed’s future action. Investors think that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is not planning to recall the easy money policies. The fears were triggered by the mixed comments from the Fed policymakers and expectations that the massive stimulus package will heat the world’s biggest economy, requiring the Fed’s interference. Elsewhere, the beating of the technology shares due to the Citibank downgrade put some additional pressure on the market trading sentiment.

As in result, the broad-based US dollar managed to stop its previous day bearish bias and drew some fresh bids on the day as the market risk-off mood underpinned the safe-haven demand for the greenback. However, the upticks in the dollar turned out to be one of the key factors that kept the ETH/USD prices lower.

ETH/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

3698.37 4288.01

3363.87 4543.15

2774.23 5132.79

Pivot Point: 3928.52

ETH/USD - Technical Outlook 

The ETH/USD pair has exhibited a dramatic sell-off from a high level of 4,193 to 3,673 level. The ETH/USD pair has completed 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on the four hourly timeframes, and now is gaining support at the 3,810 level. The ETH/USD pair’s immediate resistance stays at 3,990 and 4,198 levels on the higher side. Conversely, the violation of 3,810 opens up additional room for selling until 3,673. The 20 & 50 periods EMA are still in support of buying trend, while the MACD and RSI are showing slight weakness in buying trend. However, both of the leading technical indicators are still holding in a buy zone. Considering all technical indicators in mind, bullish bias remains dominant in the ETH/USD pair. All the best!

Weaker U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Underpins Gold

Gold prices were closed at $1831.95 after placing a high of $1844.40 and a low of $1813.45. Gold rose on Friday to its highest level since February 11 above $1840 and extended its gains for 3rd consecutive sessions. Gold remained strong this week and posted the biggest weekly gain since mid-February due to renewed weakness in the U.S. dollar. On Friday, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that measures the greenback's value against the basket of six major currencies plunged to its lowest since February 26. The DXY reached a low of $90.19 after a poor-than-expected NFP economic data release.

At 17:30 GMT, the Average Hourly Earnings increased to 0.7% against the forecasted 0.0% and supported the U.S. dollar that capped further gains in gold. In April, the most awaited Non-Farm Employment Change declined to 266K against the projected 990K and weighed on the U.S. dollar that pushed gold prices higher. In April, the Unemployment Rate increased to 6.1% that was previously predicted as 5.8%, weighed on the U.S. dollar, and added further gains in the yellow metal. At 19:00 GMT, the Final Wholesale Inventories declined to 1.3% against the expected 1.4% and supported the U.S. dollar that capped further gains in XAU/USD. The Mortgage Delinquencies came in as 6.38% in comparison to the previous 6.73%.

However, the U.S. Treasury yield on a 10-year note also fell on Friday to its lowest level since March 4 during the first half of the day; however, it made an impressive recovery and rose sharply to $1.58% in the second half of the day. The Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said that the disappointing job reports from April showed a bottleneck of workers moving into employment, not a weakening recovery. He further added that he was hopeful that the U.S. was on the brink of completing the recovery.

Barkin said that the demand side of the employment was not the issue. Instead of the supply side, many factors were holding back hiring to jobs, including fear of the coronavirus, child care, retirements, and the availability of unemployment benefits. Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden argued that the American Rescue Plan of worth $1.9 trillion stimulus package was failing in achieving its goals of revitalizing the economy after the jobs reports issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggested a decline in the hired number of Americans in April. Furthermore, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the fiscal tools of the department to hold the national debt from violating its congressionally mandated limit might be exhausted soon this summer.

Gold Intraday Technical Level

Support Resistance

1833.51 1838.86

1830.13 1840.83

1828.16 1844.21

Pivot Point: 1835.48

Gold - XAU/USD - Technical Outlook

On Monday, the precious metal gold is trading with a solid bullish bias at 1,838 level, having disrupted an ascending triangle pattern on the daily chart. On the higher side, the violation of the 1,800 level has triggered a robust dramatic buying trend in gold; therefore, the precious metal is heading towards the next resistance level of 1,856 level. The precious metal has closed three white soldiers pattern that's keeping gold's trading sentiment strongly bullish on the daily timeframe. The EMA and RSI are in support of a buying trend today. Gold's next resistance stays at 1,840 and 1,856, while the support remains at 1,833 and 1,819 levels. All the best!

Symmetrical Triangle Breakout!

The GBP/USD closed at $1.3972 after placing a high of $1.4007 and a low of $1.3886. GBP/USD pair recovered its previous day's losses and extended gains to reach its highest level since April 20 amid U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. dollar edged lower on Friday and reached $90.1 9 levels as the selling pressure rose after dismal NFP data from April. The recent decline in jobs offered to Americans in April did not meet the expectations of near 1 million and came in very little as 266K and showed that despite the reopening of the U.S. economy, the employment goal set by Federal Reserve was far from achieving.

The U.S. President Joe Biden said on Friday that lower-than-expected April's job growth revealed that the U.S. economy was still striving to improve from the coronavirus pandemic. He also said that his massive infrastructure and family support bills were needed now more than ever to support the economy.

The rising prices of GBP/USD on Friday could also be attributed to Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservatives victory in the Northern seat after defeating Labour Party in its heartland. The pro-independence Scottish National Party was close to winning an absolute majority and paving the way for another clash with London over a new referendum.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson invited the leaders of the devolved nations to a summit on how Team U.K. could recover from the pandemic. This call was followed by the SNP's fourth Scottish Parliament elections win in arrow and Labour's win in the Welsh Parliament. The conservative win against the Labour party in parliament elections added strength to the British Pound and pushed GBP/USD higher. Ben Broadbent, the Bank of England Deputy Governor, said that he still expected Brexit to induce a burden on the economy's long-term supply capacity on Friday.

He added that the Bank now expects more people to move off the furlough scheme and back into employment when the scheme was coming to an end. The comments from Broadbent added weight on the British Pound and kept the GBP/USD gains limited for the day.

On the data front, at 13:30 GMT, the Construction PMI reduced to 61.6 from the forecasted 62.0 in the U.K. and weighed on British Pound that limited the upside momentum in GBP/USD. At 17:30 GMT, the Average Hourly Earnings improved to 0.7% against the projected 0.0% and supported the U.S. dollar.

In April, the most awaited Non-Farm Employment Change fell to 266K against the estimated 990K and weighed on the U.S. dollar, supporting the rising trend in GBP/USD. In April, the Unemployment Rate advanced to 6.1% that was previously projected as 5.8%, and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added gains in GBP/USD. At 19:00 GMT, the Final Wholesale Inventories decreased to 1.3% against the anticipated 1.4% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Mortgage Delinquencies came in as 6.38% in comparison to the previous 6.73%.

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.3995 1.4066

1.3949 1.4091

1.3925 1.4137

Pivot Point: 1.4020

GBP/USD - Technical Outlook

The GBP/USD is trading sharply bullish at 1.4059 level, having disrupted a symmetrical triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart. The Cable has closed three white soldiers' candlestick pattern that demonstrates a solid bullish bias among investors. The weaker dollar is pushing the pair higher, and it may expose the GBP/USD pair towards the 1.4084 resistance level. The 1.4084 resistance level is extended by 161.8% Fibonacci expansion. On the other hand, the previously violated resistance level of 1.3980 level is likely to offer support around 1.3980 level. Bullish bias dominates over 1.4020 level today. All the best!

Ascending Triangle Breakout!

During the Asian session, the second leading crypto currency pair ETH/USD managed to extend its early-day winning streak and hit the new all-time high above $4,100 marks. It is worth mentioning that the last swing low was formed near $3,722 before Ethereum price started a new increase. It broke the $3,900 resistance to create the new rally. It even rose above the $3,950 mark and a connecting bearish trend line on the hourly chart.

The ETH/USD crypto pair extended its previous rally, and it created a new all-time high above $4,100. The ETH/USD pair price is trading well above $4,100 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. Traders seem to have moved their focus to the smart contract token, as Bitcoin remains quiet. Furthermore, the recent performance of ETH/USD price might have also affected the retail.

The bullish bias in the ETH prices could be tied to the fresh reports suggesting that the Ethereum ETH has entered the top 20 largest assets by market cap. It should be noted that the ETH has a market capitalization bigger than giants like Mastercard, Walmart, Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, NVIDIA, PayPal, and many more.

Apart from this, some experts expect further gains in the second-largest cryptocurrency. Especially after the comments from a billionaire investor and owner of the Dallas Mavericks, Mark Cuban. Lately he announced 3- well-known reasons why Ethereum could continue to be heading north and outperform bitcoin.

ETH/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

3850.60 3950.24

3878.70 3978.34

3900.42 4000.06

Pivot Point: 3928.52

ETH/USD - Technical Outlook

On the hourly timeframe, the ETH/USD pair has violated an ascending triangle pattern that’s driving sharp upward movement in Ethereum. The ETH's significant resistance is near the $4,150 mark. It represents the 1.618 Fib extension level of the downward move from the $3,985 high to $3,722 low. More upticks in ETH price could push the pair towards the $4,200 and $4,250 levels in the near term. The next major stop for the buyers could be $4,500 marks. Conversely, If ETH fails to continue higher towards $4,150, it could start a bearish correction. The initial support on the lowerr side holds around $3,950 mark. Around the same level, we can see a significant upward trend line forming with support near $3,920 on the hourly chart of the ETH/USD pair. If there is a downward break below the trend line, the ETH/USD pair will be exposed towards the $3,800 support zone. All the best!

U.S. Non-Farm Payroll in Highlights

Gold prices were closed at $1815.15 after placing a high of $1818.25 and a low of $1781.90. Gold prices extended their gains and rebounded strongly on Thursday to reach their highest level since February 16.

Gold rose about 1.8% on Thursday amid a weaker dollar and easing Treasury yields and reached above the $1800 level once again. The U.S. Dollar Index fell about 0.4% on Thursday and went below 91 levels to 90.87, and weighed on the greenback that pushed gold prices higher. The U.S. Treasury yields on a 10-year note continued their bearish momentum for the 6th consecutive session and settled at 1.557%, pushing the demand for non-yielding bullion higher.

Gold prices rose amid inflation fears as Federal Reserve policymakers have shown no interest in reducing their accommodative stance despite the economic optimism and the rising inflation fears were supporting yellow metal. The Federal Reserve has said that it will keep borrowing costs near 0% and maintain monthly asset purchases worth $120 billion until it sees substantial further progress towards full employment and its 2% flexible inflation target.

On the data front, at 16:30 GMT, the Challenger Job Cuts for the year came in as -96.6%. Last week, the Unemployment Claims were reduced to 498K against the expected 540K and supported the U.S. dollar that caped upside momentum in gold. The Prelim Nonfarm Productivity for the quarter rose to 5.4% against the forecasted 4.3% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and added strength in rising yellow metal prices. Prelim Unit Labor Cost for the quarter surged to -0.3% against the forecasted -1.1% and supported the U.S. dollar that limited the gains in gold.

On Thursday, the New York Fed Bank President John Williams said that the Federal Reserve's bond-buying did not appear to be creating imbalances in the financial sector. William noted that the positive impact of bond buying in lowering long-term borrowing costs could become more critical. Williams added that the U.S. gross domestic product is expected to increase by around 7% this year after adjusting for inflation that would bring in the fastest growth since the early 1980s. However, the boom might not be enough to achieve the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve for inflation and maximum employment. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic said on Thursday that a million or more jobs were likely created in April, but that would not be enough to push the Federal Reserve to begin discussing whether to pare its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases.

Furthermore, a new analysis from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) estimated that the coronavirus pandemic had caused nearly 6.9 million deaths worldwide, which is more than double the number officially recorded. The analysis estimated that the coronavirus had generated about 905,000 deaths in the United States, whereas; the official figures from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated 575,491 deaths by COVID-19. This report raised the appeal for safe-haven and pushed yellow metal prices on Thursday.

Gold Intraday Technical Level

Support Resistance

1791.95 1828.30

1768.75 1841.45

1755.60 1864.65

Pivot Point: 1805.10

Gold - XAU/USD - Technical Outlook

The precious metal gold trading with a solid bullish bias at 1,818 level faces immediate resistance at 1,830. On the 4-hour timeframe, gold has violated the ascending triangle pattern that's driving a sharp bullish trend in gold. On the downside, gold's support stays at 1,809 and 1,797 levels, along with resistance at 1,830 and 1,841 levels. The 20 & 50 periods EMA are suggesting an upward trend in the market. Technical indicators like the RSI and MACD exhibit bullish bias as their values hold in a buy zone. Later today, the investor's focus will stay on the U.S. NFP figures. Typically, this economic data from the U.S. drive dramatic price action in the U.S. dollar and gold. Economists are expecting Non-Farm Employment Change to soar to 990K vs. 916K beforehand. While the Unemployment rate is forecasted to drop from 6% to 5.8%, such results support the U.S. dollar and drive a bearish trend in gold. All the best!

Double Top Pattern in Play!

The EUR/USD was closed at 1.2064 after placing a high of 1.2072 and a low of 1.1992. After falling for two consecutive sessions, EUR/USD managed t return to the positive territory. The renewed bullish momentum in the pair came exclusively in response to the increased selling pressure surrounding the dollar, particularly after somewhat disappointing data from the ADP report and dovish comments from FOMC. The members of the Federal Reserve talked down the chances of tapering and reiterated the idea that the rise in inflation was temporary. On the data front, At 11:00 GMT, the German Factory Orders in March surged to 3.0% against the forecasted 1.5% and pushed Euro higher that added in the gains of EUR/USD pair. At 14:00 GMT, the Retail Sales figures increased to 2.7% against the forecasted 1.5% and supported Euro that pushed EUR/USD higher.

From the U.S. side, at 16:30 GMT, the Challenger Job Cuts for the year came in as -96.6%. Last week, the Unemployment Claims fell to 498K against the estimated 540K and supported the U.S. dollar that caped upside momentum in EUR/USD. The Prelim Nonfarm Productivity for the quarter surged to 5.4% against the forecasted 4.3% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added strength in rising EUR/USD prices. Prelim Unit Labor Cost for the quarter rose to -0.3% against the projected -1.1% and supported the U.S. dollar that limited EUR/USD pair gains.

On Thursday, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said a need to develop a green capital market union in Europe to generate cash for sustainable investment and remain the location of choice for investors issuing green debt. Europe is aiming for a leading role in the shift to sustainable growth, and the European Union was planning to issue 225 billion Euros of green bonds as part of a recovery project. However, the bloc’s capital markets remain relatively underdeveloped.

The currency pair EUR/USD advanced above 1.2071 after several FOMC members dismissed chances of a Federal Reserve move to taper. Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan said that he would like to start talking about tapering sooner than later, but he was not a voting member. On Thursday, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans showed his worries about reaching the Fed’s 2% inflation goal despite being much more optimistic about the U.S. economic growth and unemployment than just a few months ago. He said that he expects the monetary policy to remain super easy for some time. These comments weighed on the U.S. dollar and pushed EUR/USD pair higher on the day.

EURUSD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2014 1.2094

1.1963 1.2123

1.1933 1.2174

Pivot Point: 1.2043

EUR/USD - Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD’s made an excellent bullish movement to test the double top resistance level of 1.2067. Recently, the pair has closed a Doji candle below 1.2067 resistance level, and typically such a pattern drives bearish correction in the pair. That said, the EUR/USD’s support stays at 1.2030 and 1.2005 levels. Conversely, a bullish breakout of 1.2067 opens up additional room for buying until 1.2084 and even higher until 1.2125 regions. The primary focus will stay on the U.S. NFP figures as it has the potential to drive dramatic price action in the EUR/USD pair. Economists are expecting Non-Farm Employment Change to soar to 990K vs. 916K beforehand. While the Unemployment rate is forecasted to drop from 6% to 5.8%, such results support the U.S. dollar and drive a bearish trend in EUR/USD. All the best!

Choppy Session in Play!

The BTC/USD was closed at $56,451 after placing a high of $57,843 and a low of $55,897. Bitcoin came under pressure after JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon found himself in an awkward situation when he had to admit that his clients were calling for bitcoin access. At the same time, he said that he was not a bitcoin supporter. On Thursday, a report suggested that Goldman Sachs Group Inc allowed Wall Street investors to trade with a derivative tied to bitcoin prices. The fifth-largest U.S. bank has opened up trading with non-deliverable forwards that eventually payout in cash. According to the report, the bank will protect itself from the cryptocurrency’s volatility by buying and selling bitcoin futures in block trades on CME Group using Cumberland DRW as its trading partner. However, Goldman has refused to comment on the report.

Furthermore, a new cryptocurrency called Chia has promised that it was greener than Bitcoin. The year 2021 has been a big year for cryptocurrencies as Bitcoin is now worth six times what it was 12 months ago. All this was accelerated after a boom in Non-Fungible Tokens that transformed the art market. As the growth in the crypto market picked up the pace, the critics started pushing bitcoin in particular as a uncertain bubble that utilizes a vast amount of electricity and produces no real value. Bitcoin and most other cryptocurrencies use a system in which currency is created or mined using computers to solve mathematical puzzles. This job takes a lot of strength and specialised hardware. However, Chia runs on a system that uses less energy called proof-of-space and time. This system requires users to show a reserved space in a specific amount of hard drive at a precise time. It means Chia will not use huge amounts of electricity and will not require miners to buy up every graphics card insight. The rising popularity of Chia also added to the downward momentum in BTC/USD.

On the flip side, a publicly traded Argentina-based e-commerce giant MercadoLibre has disclosed that it purchased $7.8 million worth of bitcoin earlier this year with plans to hold the asset on its balance sheet indefinitely. The company invested as part of its treasury strategy. MercadoLibre is publicly traded and has a market capitalisation of more than $76.3 billion. Meanwhile, a digital insurer with headquarter in San-Francisco, Metromile Inc., unveiled its plans to make massive bitcoin purchases. The company made Bitcoin a core part of its business operations, offering further evidence of the growing mainstream adoption of digital assets. On Thursday, the company declared that it would soon give policyholders the option to pay for insurance and receive payments on eligible insurance claims in Bitcoin or dollars. This made Metromile the first insurance company to both accept premiums and play insurance claims in cryptocurrency.

BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

55617.6 57563.6

54784.3 58676.3

53671.6 59509.6

Pivot Point: 56730.3

BTC/USD - Technical Outlook

The BTC/USD is trading at 56,887 level, having violated the sideways trading range of 52,255 – 56,452. Currently, the BTC/USD pair is holding above a support level of 56,220 level. The 20 and 50 periods EMA (Exponential Moving Averages) support an upward trend, and these can underpin the Bitcoin price around 56,220 and 55,850 level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the BTC/USD pair has closed a symmetrical triangle pattern that’s suggesting indecision among investors. Typically such patterns drive sharp breakouts in the market. Above resistance level of 57,620, the pair’s next resistance stays at 59,000. The leading indicators demonstrate a solid bullish bias as the RSI and MACD has crossed over into the buying zone. The BTC/USD pair’s support stays at 56,335 levels. Below these levels, the BTC next support holds around 53,736. Conversely, the violation of 57,650 resistance exposes Bitcoin towards resistance areas of 59,966. All the best!