Choppy Session Continues

The EUR/USD pair is trading with a bearish bias at 1.1886 level, posting losses on the back of stronger U.S. dollar and weakness in the Euro amid poor economic data. On Friday, the EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.1896 after placing a high of 1.1921 and a low of 1.1867. The U.S. Dollar edged higher on the ending day of the week. It remained anchored near a two-week lower level, followed by the disappointing jobless figures and no signs from Federal Reserve changing its ultra-easy monetary policy stance.

The U.S. Dollar Index that gauges the value of the U.S. dollar against the basket of six major currencies soared by 0.2% on Friday and reached 92.278 that weighed heavily on the currency pair EUR/USD. The rising strength of the U.S. dollar could be attributed to the better-than-expected macroeconomic data along with the rising U.S. Treasury yields for the day.

On the data front, at 11:00 GMT, the German Industrial Production in February declined to -1.6% against the expected 1.6% and weighed on Euro that added losses in EUR/USD pair. The German Trade Balance declined to 19.1B against the expected 23.4B and weighed on Euro to add further losses in EUR/USD currency pair. At 11:45 GMT, the French Industrial Production also dropped to -4.7% against the projected 0.5% and weighed on Euro that provided strength to the downward momentum in EUR/USD pair. At 13:00 GMT, the Italian Retail Sales surged to 6.6% against the expected 2.0% and helped support Euro to cap further losses in EUR/USD pair.

From the U.S. side, at 17:56 GMT, the Core PPI for March surged to 0.7% against the anticipated 0.2% and supported the U.S. dollar that added further pressure on the already declining prices of the EUR/USD pair. The PPI in March also rose to 1.0% against the projected 0.5% to support the U.S. dollar and added further losses in EUR/USD pair. At 19:00 GMT, the Final Wholesale Inventories raised to 0.6% in March against the predicted 0.5% and weighed on the U.S. dollar to cap further losses in EUR/USD pair. The European stock markets edged lower on Friday amid the poor-than-expected German Industrial Production data.

The whole European continent is struggling against the coronavirus's third wave as the lagging vaccination programs have decreased the economic recovery pace. In conjunction with the induced lockdowns, this has increased the concerns that the European economy will fall behind the U.K. and U.S. economy in fighting against the coronavirus. All these adverse developments have been keeping the single currency Euro under pressure lately, driving the EUR/USD pair on the downside.

EURUSD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1872 1.1939

1.1833 1.1967

1.1804 1.2007

Pivot Point: 1.1900

EUR/USD - Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair is trading choppy at 1.1888 level, facing immediate resistance at 1.1903 level. A bullish breakout of 1.1903 level can lead the EUR/USD currency pair towards the next target level of 1.1946. On the 2-hour timeframe, the EUR/USD has formed an upward channel that's supporting the EUR/USD pair around 1.1885. The bearish breakout of the 1.1885 level can drive further selling in the EUR/USD pair until the next support level of 1.1861 and 1.1822 level.

Upward Channel Breakout, Bearish Bias Dominates!

On Monday, the precious metal is trading bearish at the $1,738 level, having violated the support area of $1,746. Previously on Friday (April 09), the yellow metal gold closed at $1,744.60 after placing a high of $1,750.80 and a low of $1,733.30. Gold prices fell on Friday amid the rising strength in the U.S. dollar and the U.S. Treasury yields. However, gold prices placed weekly gains for the first time in the last three weeks.

On Friday, the U.S. dollar was strong across the board because of the rising treasury yields and better-than-forecasted economic data release. The U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.2% on the day to reach above 92.2 level. While the supported greenback ultimately weighed on the safe-haven yellow metal prices. The U.S. treasury yield on a 10-year note rose to 1.66%.

On Thursday, the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, reiterated that it is unlikely for inflation to reach that higher level that will require the Federal Reserve to respond with higher rates. Thus, the U.S. central bank Federal Reserve is unlikely to change its policy rate till 2023, and all of the speculations that the FED might raise interest rates are not valid. Despite these comments from Powell, the U.S. Dollar managed to hold its foot in the financial market and continued weighing on the precious metal for the day. There's a negative correlation between gold and the U.S. dollar; thus, an improved dollar price drives selling in the precious metal gold.

On the data front, at 17:56 GMT, the Core PPI for March raised to 0.7% against the forecasted 0.2%. Whereas the PPI figures increased to 1.0% against the expected 0.5%, supporting the U.S. dollar that ultimately added additional losses in gold. At 19:00 GMT, the Final Wholesale Inventories surged to 0.6% in March against the projected 0.5%, weighing on the U.S. dollar, consequently extending support to the precious metal gold prices. Despite posting losses for the day, gold prices still ended the week higher, with 1% gains on Friday. This came in after yellow metal appeared somewhat successful from its fencing battles with the U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar, which remained sluggish most of the week from mixed signals on inflation.

On the flip side, the World Health Organization (WHO) has criticized the imbalanced distribution of coronavirus vaccines between rich and emerging countries. WHO has asked for a fairer allocation of vaccines, and it has been leading the Covax Scheme that is designed to provide vaccine shots to emerging nations. According to Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Research Center, the coronavirus cases world count has reached more than 135 million with about 3 million deaths from the virus. The third wave of coronavirus spread faster due to new variants and has forced many countries to reintroduce fresh lockdown measures that have deteriorated the economic recovery hopes. Eventually, this news underpins the yellow metal gold prices.

Gold Intraday Technical Level

Support Resistance

1741.60 1765.00

1726.40 1773.20

1718.20 1788.40

Pivot Point: 1749.80

Gold - XAU/USD - Technical Outlook

At the moment, the precious metal gold is trading at the $1,740 level, and on the technical side, gold has violated the support level of $1,746. As we can see on the two-hourly timeframes, the precious metal was trading in an upward channel, extending its support at $1,746. With this upward channel's violation, the same support level is likely to work as a resistance. Below this level of $1,746, the precious metal has strong odds of bearish trend continuation until the double bottom support level of $1,731. Besides, the leading technical indicators such as Stochastic and MACD support a selling bias, along with the series of EMA (exponential moving averages), that are extending resistance at $,1746.