EUR/USD Analysis - April 12, 2021

Choppy Session Continues

The EUR/USD pair is trading with a bearish bias at 1.1886 level, posting losses on the back of stronger U.S. dollar and weakness in the Euro amid poor economic data. On Friday, the EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.1896 after placing a high of 1.1921 and a low of 1.1867. The U.S. Dollar edged higher on the ending day of the week. It remained anchored near a two-week lower level, followed by the disappointing jobless figures and no signs from Federal Reserve changing its ultra-easy monetary policy stance.

The U.S. Dollar Index that gauges the value of the U.S. dollar against the basket of six major currencies soared by 0.2% on Friday and reached 92.278 that weighed heavily on the currency pair EUR/USD. The rising strength of the U.S. dollar could be attributed to the better-than-expected macroeconomic data along with the rising U.S. Treasury yields for the day.

On the data front, at 11:00 GMT, the German Industrial Production in February declined to -1.6% against the expected 1.6% and weighed on Euro that added losses in EUR/USD pair. The German Trade Balance declined to 19.1B against the expected 23.4B and weighed on Euro to add further losses in EUR/USD currency pair. At 11:45 GMT, the French Industrial Production also dropped to -4.7% against the projected 0.5% and weighed on Euro that provided strength to the downward momentum in EUR/USD pair. At 13:00 GMT, the Italian Retail Sales surged to 6.6% against the expected 2.0% and helped support Euro to cap further losses in EUR/USD pair.

From the U.S. side, at 17:56 GMT, the Core PPI for March surged to 0.7% against the anticipated 0.2% and supported the U.S. dollar that added further pressure on the already declining prices of the EUR/USD pair. The PPI in March also rose to 1.0% against the projected 0.5% to support the U.S. dollar and added further losses in EUR/USD pair. At 19:00 GMT, the Final Wholesale Inventories raised to 0.6% in March against the predicted 0.5% and weighed on the U.S. dollar to cap further losses in EUR/USD pair. The European stock markets edged lower on Friday amid the poor-than-expected German Industrial Production data.

The whole European continent is struggling against the coronavirus's third wave as the lagging vaccination programs have decreased the economic recovery pace. In conjunction with the induced lockdowns, this has increased the concerns that the European economy will fall behind the U.K. and U.S. economy in fighting against the coronavirus. All these adverse developments have been keeping the single currency Euro under pressure lately, driving the EUR/USD pair on the downside.

EURUSD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1872 1.1939

1.1833 1.1967

1.1804 1.2007

Pivot Point: 1.1900

EUR/USD - Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair is trading choppy at 1.1888 level, facing immediate resistance at 1.1903 level. A bullish breakout of 1.1903 level can lead the EUR/USD currency pair towards the next target level of 1.1946. On the 2-hour timeframe, the EUR/USD has formed an upward channel that's supporting the EUR/USD pair around 1.1885. The bearish breakout of the 1.1885 level can drive further selling in the EUR/USD pair until the next support level of 1.1861 and 1.1822 level.