EUR/USD Analysis - April 15, 2021

Upward Channel in Play! 

During Thursday's Asian trading hours, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to extend its previous three-day uptrend and dropped below the 1.1970 level mainly due to the circumspect sentiment before Germany's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (headline inflation figures) as well as the key U.S. data. Moreover, the concerns over the US-China tussle and the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine also playing its major role in undermining the EUR/USD currency pair. Meanwhile, the ever-increasing COVID-19 cases in Europe keep fueling the doubts over the European economic recovery, that turned out to be key factors that kept the EUR/USD currency pair down. The traders need strong proofs over the faster economic recovery, which in turn, they may look towards the economic calendar for the same. Conversely, the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by the combination of factors, failed to provide any meaningful support to the EUR/USD pair. Currently, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3556 and consolidating in the range between 1.1970 - 1.1990.

The global equity market extended its previous session bullish moves and remained positive on the day. The uptrend was entirely sponsored by the hopes of economic recovery and expectations of U.S. stimulus. The U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced that the U.S. country is on track for quicker growth. He further appended that the central banks would keep supporting the U.S. economy until the economy recovers completely. Across the ocean, the eurozone economy is presenting mixed signals about its performance. The eurozone economy is entirely dependent on the "two crutches" of monetary and fiscal stimulus, which keep going on until the economy recovers completely, as per the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. Therefore, the upbeat market mood failed to provide any meaningful support to the EUR/USD currency pair.

Looking forward, the market traders will keep their eyes on the U.S. data, including retail sales data for March and weekly jobless data, which are due at 12:30 GMT. In addition to this, the updates about the U.S. stimulus package will be key to watch. Furthermore, the risk catalyst like geopolitics and the virus woes will not lose their importance.

EURUSD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1898 1.1976

1.1849 1.2005

1.1820 1.2053

Pivot Point: 1.1927

EUR/USD - Technical Outlook 

The EUR/USD continues trading with a bullish bias at the 1.1982 level as the MACD and RSI values hold at 0.0006 and 62, signalling bullish bias among investors. On the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD has completed 23.6% at 1.1968 and 38.2% retracement at 1.1950 level. On the higher side, the EUR/USD pair may find an immediate resistance at 1.1990, and in case of a bullish breakout, the next resistance will prevail around the 1.2025 level. On the hourly timeframe, the 20 & 50 periods EMA support the EUR/USD at 1.1969 and 1.1950, respectively. Today, the investor's focus will stay on the series of speeches from the U.S. Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Unemployment Claims as these can drive volatility in the market. All the best!