EUR/USD Analysis - April 30, 2021

German Prelim GDP q/q in Focus!

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.2125 after placing a high of 1.2150 and a low of 1.2103. EUR/USD pair rose during European trading hours on Thursday but started to reverse its course in American trading hours. The U-turn was caused by the strength of the U.S. dollar driven by rising U.S. treasury yields. During early European trading hours, the currency pair EUR/USD took advantage of better-than-expected macroeconomic data. Despite poor-than-expected macroeconomic data from the U.S., the currency pair EUR/USD continued moving in downward momentum amid the strength in greenback driven by the rising U.S. treasury yields.

At 11:00 GMT, the German Import Prices for March improved to 1.8% against the projected 0.9% and supported single currency Euro and capped further losses in EUR/USD pair. The German Prelim CPI also increased to 0.7% from the predicted 0.5% and supported Euro and pushed EUR/USD higher during the first half of the day. At 12:00 GMT, Spanish Flash CPI for the year reached 2.2% that was forecasted as 1.9% and supported the single currency Euro and limited the losses in EUR/USD pair.

Spanish Unemployment Rate declined to 16.0% and dismissed the expectations of 16.5% for supporting Euro and kept losses in EUR/USD pair checked. At 12:55 GMT, the German Unemployment Change surpassed the expectations of -10K and came in as 9K that weighed on Euro and added further losses in EUR/USD pair. At 13:00 GMT, the Private Loans from bloc reached 3.3% against the expected 3.2% and supported Euro, limiting the losses in EUR/USD pair on Thursday. From the U.S. side, at 17:30 GMT, the Advance GDP for the quarter fell to 6.4% against the anticipated 6.8% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Advance GDP Price Index for the quarter surpassed the expectations of 2.6% and came in as 4.1% that supported the U.S. dollar that added further losses in EUR/USD pair. The Unemployment Claims from last week also rose to 553K in comparison to the anticipated 545K and weighed on the U.S. dollar and limited the downfall in EUR/USD pair. At 19:00 GMT, the Pending Home sales in March dropped to 1.9% against the predicted 4.2% and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

On Thursday, the World Health Organization (WHO) said that the threat for Europe posed by the coronavirus remained present despite a recent decline in new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the bloc. The regional director for Europe at WHO, Dr. Hans Kluge, said that about 5.5% of the entire population had had COVID-19, while 7% have completed a whole vaccination series.

The total cases of coronavirus in Europe surpassed 50 million, out of which 1,382,000 were recorded in the past seven days. This represented an average of 197,400 cases per day.

On the other hand, the U.S. dollar was strong on the board after the U.S. treasury yield on the 10-year note rose to 1.68% and pushed the U.S. Dollar Index to 90.70 helped the greenback find its strength back and add losses in EUR/USD pair.

EURUSD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2102 1.2149

1.2078 1.2174

1.2054 1.2197

Pivot Point: 1.2126

EUR/USD - Technical Outlook

On Friday, the EUR/USD continues trading at choppy at 1.2115, maintaining a new trading range of 1.2100 – 1.2150. The EUR/USD is exhibiting bearish retracement on the hourly timeframe, having completed 38.2% at 1.2118. Currently, it’s heading further lower towards the next support level of 50% Fibo retracement at 1.2103. On the hourly chart, the EUR/USD is also gaining support by an upward trendline. The 20 & 50 periods exponential moving averages buying trend at 1.2100 level. The EUR/USD pair may find support at 1.2100 and 1.2078 levels. Traders will focus on the German Prelim GDP q/q figures due to come out from the European economy. The data is expected to plunge from 0.3% to -1.5%, and it can help support bearish bias in the EUR/USD today. All the best!