Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Analysis – June 07, 2021

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jun 7, 20214 min

German Factory Orders in Focus!

The EUR/USD closed at 1.2165 after placing a high of 1.2186 and a low of 1.2104. The EUR/USD pair found some support and reversed its course upside after falling for three consecutive days. The latest surge in EUR/USD currency pair could be attributed to the weakness in the U.S. dollar that came under pressure at the ending day of the week amid dismal U.S. jobs data. Though the unemployment rate came better than expected, the data about job creation during last month fell short of expectations and weighed over the greenback. The U.S. Dollar Index fell to 90.03 level, and the U.S. Treasury yields also declined to 1.5% that added additional weight on the U.S. dollar and pushed EUR/USD pair higher.

On the data front, at 14:00 GMT, the Retail Sales from Europe in April dropped to -3.1% against the expected -1.4% and added heavyweight on the single currency Euro. From the U.S. side, at 17:30 GMT, the Average Hourly Earnings surged to 0.5% against the predicted 0.2% and supported the U.S. dollar and further capped gains in EUR/USD. The Non-Farm Employment Change also declined to 559K against the estimated 645K and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further gains in currency pair EUR/USD. The Unemployment Rate from May reduced to 5.8% against the predicted 5.9% and supported the U.S. dollar that put a lid on the gains of the EUR/USD pair. At 19:00 GMT, the Factory Orders from April fell to -0.6% against the expected -0.3% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added gains in EUR/USD.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) chief, Christine Lagarde, said that the bank would support the euro-zone well into its recovery from a double-dip recession caused by the pandemic. She said that the ECB was committed to preserving favorable financing conditions throughout the pandemic. Furthermore, the ECB will hold monetary policy this week on Thursday, and it has to decide on the pace of the bond purchases as hinted by policymakers. The officers have shown very little support to the easing, although the bloc was moving firmly towards the rebound.

Besides, the EUR/USD pair is a riskier asset also gained traction on Friday after the market's risk sentiment improved amid the latest developments in the coronavirus crisis. The global crisis was near an end in the G7countries as they were ahead of other countries to inoculate vaccine shots. New Delhi also announced to reopen the economy and ease further restrictions from Monday. Italy was moving faster to administer vaccinations with 600,000 vaccine injections in a single day on Friday. Belgium unveiled its plans to start vaccination of people between the ages of 16 and 17 years old. All these developments added strength to the market mood as vaccination campaigns were picking up the pace worldwide. This raised the hopes that the world will get rid of the virus sooner than expected and resulted in a surge in riskier assets like EUR/USD.


EURUSD Intraday Technical Levels**

Support Resistance

1.2162 1.2170

1.2158 1.2174

1.2154 1.2178

Pivot Point: 1.2166

EUR/USD - Technical Outlook

On Monday, the EUR/USD consolidates in a narrow trading range of 1.2178 – 1.2155 level as investors await a solid fundamental to trigger a breakout. The pair has recently bounced off over the support area of 1.2131, and the recent closing of candlesticks over this level is making it strong support for the EUR/USD pair now. As we can see on the four hourly timeframes, the EUR/USD violated trendline support upward at 1.2178 level on June 03, and now the same level is extending strong resistance to the pair. The 50 periods EMA is also supporting the selling trend in the EUR/USD pair. Let's keep an eye on German Factory orders today as these may drive some price action in the EUR/USD pair. All the best!


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