Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Analysis – June 25, 2021

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jun 25, 20213 min

UoM Consumer Sentiment in Focus!

The EUR/USD closed at $1.1930 after placing a high of $1.1957 and a low of $1.1918. EUR/USD extended its losses for the second consecutive session but remained flat throughout the day. Despite the stronger than expected economic data from the European side and poor-than-expected economic figures from the U.S. side, the currency pair EUR/USD remained under pressure mainly due to the comeback in the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. dollar was strong across the board as the U.S. President announced that they had touched a bipartisan deal on the $1.2 trillion infrastructure spending plan. The agreement includes traditional infrastructural spending on roads, bridges, and a project to introduce a nationwide electrical vehicle charger. The strength of the greenback kept the EUR/USD currency pair under pressure throughout Thursday. On the data front, at 13:00 GMT, the German IFO Business Climate for June surged to 101.8 against the forecasted 100.8 and supported the single currency Euro that capped further loss in EUR/USD pair. At 17:56 GMT, the Belgian NBB Business Climate also rose to 9.8 against the forecasted 8.5 and supported Euro that capped further loss in EUR/USD currency pair.

At 17:30 GMT, the quarter's final GDP remained unchanged, with the estimations at 6.4%. The Unemployment Claims from last week soared to 411K against the projected 382K and weighed on the U.S. dollar that capped further losses in EUR/USD pair. The Core Durable Goods Orders dropped to 0.3% against the predicted 0.8% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that kept loss in EUR/USD checked. The Durable Goods Orders also dropped to 2.3% against the anticipated 2.9% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Goods Trade Balance remained flat at -88.1B. The Prelim Wholesale Inventories surged to 1.1% against the predicted 0.8% and weighed the U.S. dollar that kept EUR/USD currency pair under pressure. At 17:36 GMT, the Final GDP Price Index for the quarter remained flat with the expectations of 4.3%.

Meanwhile, another reason behind the declining prices of EUR/USD could be the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant in the continent. German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned that Europe was on thin ice as the Delta variant of coronavirus was spreading fast on the continent. This warning came in after the health officials from Europe suggested that the variant would account for 90% of the cases in Europe by late August. Delta variant is considered 40-60% more transmissible than the Alpha variant first discovered in the U.K. and hit Europe hard early this year. This warning added pressure on the single currency Euro and kept EUR/USD pair under pressure on Thursday.

EURUSD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1913 1.1952

1.1896 1.1974

1.1873 1.1992

Pivot Point: 1.1935


EUR/USD - Technical Outlook**

The EUR/USD is trading choppy but with a slight bullish bias at the 1.1941 level. The direct currency pair may face resistance at the 1.1958 level that's being extended by a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. On the higher side, a breakout of 1.1958 level extends resistance at 1.1990 level (the 50% Fibonacci level). However, the 50 periods EMA will be there to extend resistance at the 1.1958 mark. Conversely, the 1.1916 support level breakout can expose the EUR/USD pair towards 1.1881 and 1.1848 level today. Let's keep an eye on the UoM consumer sentiment as this can trigger a breakout and drive further trends in the EUR/USD pair. All the best!


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