EUR/USD Analysis – November 18, 2021

Pivot Point Breakout

The EUR/USD closed at $1.1319 after reaching a high of $1.1333 and a low of $1.1264. The EUR/USD continued its decline and dropped for the 7th consecutive session on Wednesday, reaching its lowest since July 2020. The currency pair EUR/USD remained under pressure on Wednesday during early trading hours, mainly due to the rising price of the U.S. dollar. The greenback reached a 96.24 level during early trading hours, which ultimately added negative pressure on the currency pair EUR/USD and dragged its prices to the downside.

On the data front, at 14:02 GMT, the Italian Trade Balance surged to 2.45B against the anticipated 2.07B and supported the Euro, which capitulated a further loss in EUR/USD pair. At 15:00 GMT, the Final CPI for the year came in line with the expectations of 4.1%. The Final Core CPI declined to 2.0% against the projected 2.1% and weighed on Euro, which added further loss in the EUR/USD pair.

From the U.S. side, at 02:00 GMT, the TIC Long-Term Purchases declined to 26.3B against the anticipated 64.1B and weighed on the U.S. dollar, which further caped loss in EUR/USD pair. At 18:30 GMT, the Building Permits remained flat with the anticipations of 1.63M. The Housing Starts fell to 1.52M against the predicted 1.58M and weighed on the U.S. dollar, limiting the downward trend in EUR/USD.

The single currency euro came under pressure when the World Health Organization (WHO) reported that Europe was the only sector in the world where COVID-related deaths increased last week after a rise of 5%. On Tuesday, the weekly report issued by the WHO reported that cases jumped 6% globally, driven by a surge in the USA, Europe, and Asia.

The report suggested that COVID-19 deaths in all regions other than Europe remained stable or declined last week, bringing the total to 50,000 worldwide. Of the 3.3 million new infections reported, about 2.1 million came from Europe. These figures added a negative impression on the single currency Euro and added further loss in the EUR/USD currency pair.

Furthermore, the prevailing risk-off market sentiment also kept the riskier currency pair EUR/USD under pressure during the trading session of Wednesday. The rising inflationary pressures, a higher number of coronavirus cases around the globe, and the energy crisis in the European region added to the risk-off market sentiment, which ultimately added pressure on the riskier single currency and added further decline in EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1277 1.1346

1.1236 1.1374

1.1208 1.1416

Pivot Point: 1.1305

EUR/USD - Technical Outlook

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.1319 level, facing immediate resistance at the 1.1335 level. The closing of candles below the 1.1335 level supports the selling trend in the EUR/USD pair. whereas the immediate support stays at the 1.1304 level, which is being extended by the pivot point level.

The breakout of the 1.1304 level opens up further room for selling until the 1.1277 level. Below this, the next levels of support are at 1.1236 and 1.1208. The EUR/USD’s immediate resistance stays at the 1.1335 level. A break above this level exposes the pair towards the 1.1346 and 1.1373 levels.

The RSI and stochastic indicators are tossing above and below crossover levels, suggesting indecision among investors. On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD’s ascending triangle suggests a bullish bias. All the best!