EUR/USD Analysis – September 24, 2021

Choppy Session in Play

The EUR/USD was closed at $1.1736 after placing a high of $1.1751 and a low of $1.1683. The currency pair EUR/USD reversed its course on Thursday and surged after declining for five consecutive sessions. The reversal could be attributed to the declining prices of the U.S. dollar on Thursday. The rise in riskier asset EUR/USD on Thursday came out unexpected as the macroeconomic data from the European side fell short of expected figures and weighed heavily on the single currency Euro.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the greenback's value against the basket of six major currencies, fell more than 1% in a single day and reached 92.98, which weighed on the U.S. dollar and helped push the prices of EUR/USD on Thursday. Furthermore, the PMI data from countries across Europe showed growth in the manufacturing and services sectors, but the growth fell short of the market’s expectations and weighed on the single currency Euro on Thursday. However, the currency pair EUR/USD remained green on the board and rose for the day.

On the data front, at 01:00 GMT, the Consumer Confidence in September dropped to -4 against the projected-6 and supported the single currency euro, which lifted EUR/USD higher. At 12:15 GMT, the French Flash Manufacturing PMI in September dropped to 55.2 against the predicted 57.1 and weighed on the single currency Euro that further caped gains in EUR/USD. The French Flash Services PMI remained unchanged at 56.1.

At 12:30 GMT, the German Flash Manufacturing PMI was reduced to 58.5 from an estimated 61.3 and weighed on the Euro and limited the upward momentum in EUR/USD. The German Flash Services PMI declined to 56.0 from the anticipated 60.3 and weighed on the Euro. At 13:00 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI fell to 58.7 from the projected 60.4 and weighed on the Euro. The Flash Services PMI also dropped to 56.3 against the anticipated 58.4, weighed on the Euro, and capitulated further upside momentum in the EUR/USD pair.

From the U.S. side, at 17:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from last week advanced to 351K against the predicted 322K and weighed on the U.S. dollar and added further gains in EUR/USD. At 18:45 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI in September remained flat with the forecasted reading of 60.7. The Flash Services PMI declined in September to 54.4 against the anticipated 55.1. At 19:00 GMT, the CB Leading Index rose to 0.9% against the estimated 0.7% and supported the U.S. dollar, limiting the upward momentum in EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1695 1.1763

1.1656 1.1790

1.1628 1.1830

Pivot Point: 1.1723

EUR/USD - Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD has made a slight upward movement to the 1.1735 level, facing immediate resistance at the 1.1745 level. This level is being extended by a downward trend line that we can see in the 1-hourly timeframe. On the bearish side, the euro currency pair’s next support prevails at the 1.1723 level, which is being extended by an intraday pivot point level. The violation of the 1.1723 pivot point level can expose EUR/USD prices towards the next support level of the 1.1697 level.

Taking a look at the leading technical tools like RSI and Stochastic, these are held in a sell zone, suggesting a bearish bias in the EUR/USD currency pair. At the moment, the major currency is closing neutral candles in a range of 1.1723-1.1749. Later today, the violation of this range will be determined further. All the best!