Daily Price Outlook
n the Tokyo session, the EUR/USD pair tested parts under the psychological support of 1.1000. In anticipation of the US inflation data, the major currency pair is anticipated to show more weakness as the US Dollar Index (DXY) targets more upside over the primary opposition level of 101.50.
According to the initial assessment, US inflation is anticipated to stay stable. It appears that increased household income has countered declining retail bank loans due to poor demand and restrictive credit conditions.
In the meantime, as retail demand continues to fall and the growth rate has been severely constrained by rising interest rates from the European Central Bank (ECB), the Eurozone economy is rapidly nearing recession.
After touching its annual high of 1.1096 again, the EUR/USD is showing signs of a major decline in its upward momentum. The common currency pair is having trouble keeping its price above the flat opposition line drawn from the high of February 2 at 1.1033. The euro is being supported by the 20-period exponential shifting average (EMA) around 1.0983.
It's important to note that Philip Lane, the top economist at the European Central Bank, indicated that there would be "a lot of disinflation" later this year but also noted that there was still "a lot of speed" in inflation. In the context of modestly showing S&P 500 futures, his comments also put pressure on the EUR/USD price.
According to Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang and Economist Lee Sue Ann of the UOB Group, the upward momentum in the EUR/USD trade rate is anticipated to slow below 1.0940.
Moving on, a light calendar highlights the need to watch for risk motivations when expecting the movements of the EUR/USD.
EUR/USD – Technical Outlook
Yesterday, the EURUSD pair traded negatively and broke the 1.1010 level, settling below it and falling under expected negative pressure on the intraday basis. The main target is to test the 1.0945 level. Today, we suggest a bearish bias, noting that the expected decline is temporary and we anticipate resuming the main bullish wave that starts by testing the 1.1075 level.
If the decline continues and breaks the 1.0945 level, the price will be under more correctional bearish pressure, heading towards visiting the 1.0865 areas on a near-term basis. However, if the 1.1010 level is breached, it will represent the key to resume the bullish wave again without the expected decline.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.0930 support and 1.1060 resistance. Keep an eye out for any changes and happy trading!
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