Technical Analysis

GOLD Analysis – October 04, 2021

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Oct 4, 20214 min
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US NFP Figures to Control the Market This Week

During Monday's Asian trading hours, the precious-metal price succeeded in extending its early-day winning streak and hitting a near two-week high as the US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against the bucket of six major currencies, dropped below 94.00 to its lowest since September 29. Thus, the bearish bias surrounding the US dollar was seen as a key factor that provides additional support to the dollar-denominated commodity (gold). In the meantime, the market's risk-of sentiment, triggered by multiple factors, also played a major role in supporting the yellow-metal prices. Investors are turning towards the safe-haven yellow metal as increasing concerns over the latest COVID-19 outbreaks boosted safe-haven demand in the market.

Apart from the virus concerns, the ongoing fears over the Sino-American phase one trade deal put some additional burden on the market's trading mood. This was seen as one of the key factors that kept the gold prices higher. Moreover, New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern called for a snap-lockdown on additional regions also put a dent in the market trading mood. At this particular time, the gold price is trading at 1,761.78 and consolidating in the range between 1,757.88 and 1,765.73.

Despite the positive remarks by US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi suggesting the much-awaited infrastructure spending bill will be out soon, the market's trading sentiment failed to stop its early-day sluggish performance and remained well offered on the day. However, the reason could be attributed to the long-lasting fears concerning the US-China trade relationships and the suspension of the Evergrande shares in Hong Kong, which simply put the investors under pressure. Furthermore, the declines in the market's trading sentiment were further bolstered by the concerns over the US debt ceiling talks, as policymakers remained worried after Democrats had to step back from voting on the bill on Thursday. As per the latest report, the share trading in debt-laden Evergrande was stopped in Hong Kong without any immediate explanation, which rekindles investors' nerves about the possibility of global contagion risk of the property giant fallout. The collapse at Evergrande could put an additional negative impact on the already unstable Chinese economy and spell a cast on global growth.

In addition to this, the fears over the Sino-US phase one trade deal put some additional burdens on the market's trading sentiment. However, the concerns have appeared after CNBC relied on anonymous sources to say that US Trade Representative Katherine Tai will announce that China hasn’t complied with the phase one trade deal during her speech on Monday. Although worsening COVID conditions in Australia and New Zealand, as well as cautious sentiment ahead of the Fed meeting, suggest that market movements will be limited.However, the negative appearance of US stock futures highlights the risk-off sentiment, which tends to benefit the dollar-denominated commodity gold.

Despite the risk-off market sentiment, the broad-based US dollar failed to stop its early-day bearish performance and remained sour during the 1st-half of the Asian session. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against the bucket of 6-major currencies, dropped below 94.00 to its lowest since September 29. However, the reason could be tied to the lower Treasury yields. Meanwhile, the cautious sentiment ahead of Fed speeches also played a major role in undermining the dollar. Therefore, the declines in the US dollar were seen as one of the key factors that helped gold prices to stay bid as the price of gold is inversely related to the price of the U.S. dollar.

Looking forward, market traders will keep their eyes on next week’s US jobs report, which will be important even though Fed Chair Jerome Powell showed readiness to accept softer numbers while reiterating the hawkish bias for Fed tapering. Apart from this, the headlines over the Sino-US tussle and the Taliban-Afghanistan matter will also be key to watching.

GOLD Intraday Technical Level

Support Resistance

1760.89 1766.34

1758.12 1769.02

1755.44 1771.79

Pivot Point: 1763.57

GOLD - Technical Outlook

On Monday, the precious metal gold is trading at 1,762 with a bullish bias. It is getting immediate support at the 1,758 level, which has been extended by an intraday pivot point. Gold's bullish trend is supported by the closing of candles above this level. While a continued upward trend exposes the metal to the next resistance level of 1,766 level, gold's next resistance level will prevail around 1,772 and 1,781 level.

On the downside, the negative trendline is acting as a support for gold. It might cause a rebound in gold prices above $1,758. However, a bearish breach below this level may cause a sell-off till the levels of 1,743 and 1,737. Consider buying above the 1,758 mark and selling below it. All the best!

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