GOLD Price Analysis – February 22, 2023

Daily Price Outlook

XAU/USD is currently trading at $1,837, reflecting a 0.10% increase over the last 24 hours. Despite concerns among market players ahead of the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, the price of gold has attempted to break over $1,837.

DXY, US Treasury, and Gold: Current Market Analysis

The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped to an intraday low of 104.02 as the PMI report was released, causing the US Dollar Index to give back some of its earlier gains.

Additionally, the 10-year Treasury Yield for the US is now at 3.939, reflecting a 0.36% decline over the past 24 hours.

While the increase in the value of the US dollar was momentarily halted, the price of gold gained momentum and rebounded to the upside.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Meeting Minutes in Focus

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is set to release the minutes from its recent policy meeting on February 22, during which the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reviewed the monetary policy. It will be crucial to determine whether any officials felt the Fed should reconsider raising interest rates by 50 basis points.

A report released on February 21 revealed that the US services PMI rose from 46.8 to 50.5 in February, exceeding the expected increase of 47.2. This may renew expectations for a 50 basis point raise at the next meeting, which could significantly weigh on gold prices.

Geopolitical Tensions: Impact on Financial Markets and Investments

In an interview on February 19, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that US information suggests that China may be considering providing weapons and ammunition to Russia. Additionally, Russia announced that it would continue its military operations in Ukraine while suspending its nuclear weapons deal with the US.

On February 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed both chambers of parliament before delivering his state of the country speaking to the Federal Assembly. He stated that their responsibility is to expand the economy, which increases geopolitical tensions around Ukraine.

In times of high global uncertainty, investors often turn to gold as a safe-haven investment when the US treasuries and DXY are low. Therefore, growing global instability may provide significant support for gold prices.

Gold (XAU/USD) Intraday Technical Levels

Support      Resistance

1830           1843

1823           1851

1816           1857

Pivot Point: 1837

Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook

Gold is presently trading within a descending channel, with resistance close to $1,840 and support close to $1,830. A double top pattern on the 2-hour timeframe is serving as a significant resistance near $1,845, and a break above this level could potentially result in further upside for gold. Immediate resistance levels are found at $1,860 or $1,870.

The RSI and MACD indicators are both currently indicating a selling zone, suggesting a bearish bias in the market. However, the continuation of the uptrend is dependent on whether or not gold is able to break through the $1,840 resistance level.

In the event of a downward movement, gold's immediate support level is near $1,830, followed by $1,820. Today is an important day as market participants will be closely monitoring the release of the FOMC meeting minutes to gain insight into future trends in the financial markets. The minutes are scheduled to be released at 7:00 PM (GMT) today.

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