GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Neutral Momentum: RSI at 45 and price near the 50 EMA ($1.27437) indicate limited directional bias.
- Key Levels: Resistance at $1.27957; support levels at $1.27171 and $1.26875 to watch for shifts in sentiment.
- Trading Strategy: Buy above $1.27173, target $1.27561, and manage risk with a stop loss at $1.26937.
GBP/USD is trading at $1.27340, down 0.03%, as the pair remains range-bound near the pivot point of $1.27551. The 50-day EMA at $1.27437 reflects slight bearish pressure as the price hovers just below this level, signaling caution among traders.
Immediate resistance is noted at $1.27957, with subsequent levels at $1.28367, suggesting that a recovery above the pivot could open the door for further gains.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.27171, with additional safety levels at $1.26875 and $1.26595. A break below $1.27171 could indicate further selling pressure, potentially driving the pair toward the $1.26298 zone.
The RSI at 45 signals neutral momentum, leaning slightly bearish but not yet oversold, leaving room for either direction depending on market catalysts.
A sustained break above $1.27551 would reinforce bullish momentum, targeting $1.27957 as the first resistance. Conversely, failure to hold $1.27171 could shift the focus to the next support levels.
GBP/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.27173
Take Profit – 1.27561
Stop Loss – 1.26937
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$388/ -$236
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$38/ -$23
GBP/USD Price Analysis – Dec 09, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement, gaining momentum around the 1.2778 level and reaching an intraday high of 1.2784.
This bullish trend can largely be attributed to a weakening US dollar, which lost strength as investors grew more confident that the Federal Reserve would likely cut interest rates during its December 18 meeting.
At the same time, the GBP/USD pair benefited from expectations that the Bank of England will adopt a slower pace of policy easing due to ongoing concerns about persistent inflation pressures.
Looking ahead, all eyes are on the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, set to be released on Wednesday. Analysts expect headline CPI inflation to edge up to 2.7% from the previous 2.6%.
In the meantime, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to remain steady at 3.3%. Investors are hoping these numbers will provide more insight into the current inflation situation.
US Dollar Weakened by Growing Fed Rate Cut Expectations, Boosting GBP/USD
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been under pressure as market participants grow increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in its meeting on December 18.
There’s an 83% chance that the Fed will lower its key borrowing rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%-4.50% next week, according to the CME FedWatch tool. This is up from 62% a week ago, signaling rising expectations for a rate cut.
However, the speculation about the Fed’s rate cut strengthened after the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for November. The report showed the economy added 227,000 jobs, beating the 200,000 forecast.
However, the unemployment rate also rose slightly to 4.2%, as expected. Additionally, average hourly earnings grew by 0.4% month-over-month and 4% year-over-year, both higher than estimates, suggesting continued inflation pressures.
Despite this strong data, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman indicated on Friday that she would prefer a cautious and gradual approach to cutting rates, as inflation remains high.
This comment contrasts with the growing market expectation for rate cuts and highlights the ongoing debate within the Fed about the best approach to tackle inflation while supporting the economy.
Therefore, the growing expectation of a Fed rate cut has supported the GBP/USD pair, as the US dollar weakens. Investors anticipate that the Fed's actions could make the dollar less attractive, boosting the British pound's value against the Greenback.
GBP Strengthened by BoE’s Gradual Policy Easing, but Weakened by Declining UK Labor Demand
On the GBP front, the British pound is generally strong against its major counterparts, except for some Asia-Pacific currencies, as the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to take a more gradual approach to easing its monetary policy. This is due to concerns that inflationary pressures remain persistent.
BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Megan Greene mentioned that the bank could reach its inflation target by the end of its three-year forecast period.
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey also stated that while there’s still work to do to bring inflation down to the 2% target, the disinflation process is progressing well.
Investors are keeping a close eye on the BoE's next steps, especially with the upcoming speech by Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden, scheduled for 13:00 GMT on Monday.
Ramsden has been one of the BoE policymakers who has leaned towards reducing interest rates, which could influence market sentiment on the pound. His comments may provide more clarity on the BoE's stance regarding future rate cuts or increases.
On the economic front, a recent survey by the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) and KPMG showed a decline in demand for workers in the UK.
This came after the government raised Employer’s National Insurance Contributions (NIC) to 15%. The survey revealed that demand for staff fell to its lowest level since August 2020, highlighting ongoing concerns in the labor market.
Thus, the British pound remains strong against the US dollar, supported by the Bank of England's cautious approach to monetary policy easing. However, the decline in UK labor demand could weigh on the pound, limiting further upside against the US dollar.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is trading at $1.27340, down 0.03%, as the pair remains range-bound near the pivot point of $1.27551. The 50-day EMA at $1.27437 reflects slight bearish pressure as the price hovers just below this level, signaling caution among traders.
Immediate resistance is noted at $1.27957, with subsequent levels at $1.28367, suggesting that a recovery above the pivot could open the door for further gains.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.27171, with additional safety levels at $1.26875 and $1.26595. A break below $1.27171 could indicate further selling pressure, potentially driving the pair toward the $1.26298 zone.
The RSI at 45 signals neutral momentum, leaning slightly bearish but not yet oversold, leaving room for either direction depending on market catalysts.
A sustained break above $1.27551 would reinforce bullish momentum, targeting $1.27957 as the first resistance. Conversely, failure to hold $1.27171 could shift the focus to the next support levels.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Resistance Levels: $1.27496, $1.27833; pivot at $1.27106 critical for further gains.
- Support Levels: $1.26169, $1.25817; failure below $1.26645 risks deeper correction.
- Indicators: RSI at 53 indicates mild bullish momentum; 50 EMA at $1.26799 underpins the uptrend.
GBP/USD is trading at $1.26866, up 0.11%, maintaining a mildly bullish tone as it hovers just above its 50-day EMA at $1.26799. The pair is consolidating below its pivot point of $1.27106, with immediate resistance at $1.27496.
Further resistance levels are noted at $1.27833, suggesting potential upside targets if the pair sustains momentum. On the downside, support is seen at $1.26169, followed by $1.25817 and $1.25386.
The RSI stands at 53, reflecting modest bullish momentum but not yet signaling overbought conditions. A decisive move above the pivot point could validate the bullish bias, targeting $1.27496 and beyond.
However, a break below $1.26645 may expose the pair to further declines, targeting the $1.26169 support zone.
Entry opportunities above $1.26645 align with the current trend, with profit targets near $1.27098 and a prudent stop-loss at $1.26323 to manage downside risks.
GBP/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.26645
Take Profit – 1.27098
Stop Loss – 1.26323
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$453/ -$322
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$45/ -$32
GBP/USD Price Analysis – Dec 04, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair struggled to recover and stayed bearish around 1.2671, briefly touching an intra-day low of 1.2630.
This downward momentum was primarily driven by the strength of the US Dollar, which gained traction as investors remained focused on upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data due Friday.
The anticipation of this report has heightened market expectations about the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. With the Fed initiating a policy-easing cycle in September due to concerns over slowing labor demand, confidence remains strong that inflation will stay on track toward the 2% target.
Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling faced additional pressure after Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey hinted at potential interest rate cuts in 2025, forecasting four reductions as he expects the disinflation trend to solidify.
This dovish outlook has dampened the Pound’s appeal against its major peers, including the US Dollar. As a result, the GBP/USD pair experienced volatility, reflecting uncertainty in market sentiment.
US Economic Data and Fed Insights Weigh on GBP as Market Awaits Key Releases
On the US front, the Pound Sterling remained under pressure mainly due to the strengthening US Dollar, supported by rising investor confidence ahead of key economic data releases.
The Pound’s appeal was further weighed down by cautious market sentiment, especially after recent remarks by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who hinted at potential rate cuts in 2025.
Meanwhile, attention is turning toward US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, set to be released on Friday.
This report is crucial as the Federal Reserve has already begun a policy-easing cycle, driven by concerns over slowing labor demand. Markets remain optimistic that inflation will stay on course toward the Fed’s 2% target.
On Wednesday, all eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the New York Times DealBook Summit, where investors hope to gain fresh insights into the Fed’s interest rate plans. Current market expectations suggest a 74% chance of a rate cut to 4.25%-4.50% in the coming months.
Economic data releases on Wednesday, including the US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI, are also key focal points. Analysts predict the US private sector added 150K jobs in November, a notable drop from October’s 233K.
The ISM Services PMI is expected to ease slightly to 55.5 from 56.0, signaling a slower pace of growth but still reflecting an expanding economy. These figures will provide further clues about the state of the US economy and the potential direction of Federal Reserve policy.
Pound Sterling Pressured as BoE Signals Future Rate Cuts Amid Persistent Inflation Concerns
On the GBP front, the Pound Sterling faced selling pressure on Wednesday after Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey predicted four interest-rate cuts in 2025 during an interview.
He highlighted the need to reduce rates gradually while emphasizing that more effort is needed to bring inflation down, even though the disinflation process is already underway.
When asked about the potential impact of US tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump on UK inflation, Bailey said the effects are challenging to predict.
Bailey did not provide any clear signals about the BoE’s next move at its upcoming monetary policy meeting on December 19. However, traders widely expect the central bank to keep interest rates steady at 4.75%.
This expectation is driven by concerns over the persistence of UK inflation, which remains a key focus for policymakers.
Meanwhile, the UK’s October inflation report showed that core inflation, excluding volatile items, rose to 3.3%, while services inflation climbed to 5%.
The BoE closely monitors services inflation as it reflects underlying price pressures in the economy. These figures have added to the cautious sentiment, making it likely that the BoE will hold off on any immediate rate changes.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is trading at $1.26866, up 0.11%, maintaining a mildly bullish tone as it hovers just above its 50-day EMA at $1.26799. The pair is consolidating below its pivot point of $1.27106, with immediate resistance at $1.27496.
Further resistance levels are noted at $1.27833, suggesting potential upside targets if the pair sustains momentum. On the downside, support is seen at $1.26169, followed by $1.25817 and $1.25386.
The RSI stands at 53, reflecting modest bullish momentum but not yet signaling overbought conditions. A decisive move above the pivot point could validate the bullish bias, targeting $1.27496 and beyond.
However, a break below $1.26645 may expose the pair to further declines, targeting the $1.26169 support zone.
Entry opportunities above $1.26645 align with the current trend, with profit targets near $1.27098 and a prudent stop-loss at $1.26323 to manage downside risks.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Resistance Levels: $1.27486, $1.28086, $1.28575.
- Support Levels: $1.26175, $1.25669, $1.25072.
- Momentum: RSI at 50 shows a neutral trend, with the 50-day EMA at $1.26473 providing nearby support.
The GBP/USD pair is trading at $1.2692, showing cautious consolidation near the pivot point at $1.26758. The pair reflects indecision, with price movement closely aligned to key technical levels.
Immediate resistance stands at $1.27486, followed by $1.28086 and $1.28575. A breakout above $1.27486 could attract further bullish momentum, supported by the 50-day EMA at $1.26473, which reinforces underlying support.
On the downside, immediate support is identified at $1.26175, with further critical levels at $1.25669 and $1.25072. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at 50, indicating a balance between bullish and bearish forces. A sustained move below $1.26758 could drive prices toward $1.26175 and signal a broader bearish sentiment.
While the broader trend remains uncertain, the pair's proximity to its pivot point suggests a critical juncture. Bulls must reclaim $1.27486 for a potential rally, while failure to hold above $1.26758 may lead to downside risks.
GBP/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.26751
Take Profit – 1.27479
Stop Loss – 1.26377
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$728/ -$374
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$72/ -$37
GBP/USD Price Analysis – Dec 02, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair fell, slipping below the 1.2700 mark, as the US Dollar gained strength following President-elect Donald Trump's threats against the BRICS trading bloc.
Trump announced that he would impose 100% tariffs on BRICS countries if they tried to create a new currency to replace the US Dollar. This threat added strength to the US Dollar, further supporting the Greenback’s position.
US Dollar Strengthened by Trump's Stance Against BRICS
Donald Trump's comments on social media sparked concerns about trade tensions. He criticized the BRICS nations' plan to create a new currency that could challenge the US Dollar's dominance in global trade.
Trump said that these countries must promise not to create a new currency or back any other currency to replace the US Dollar, or they would face 100% tariffs.
His strong statement helped strengthen the US Dollar, which put pressure on the GBP/USD pair. The threat of tariffs made investors more cautious, supporting the Greenback while causing the Pound to weaken.
Pound Sterling Finds Support in UK Housing Data
Despite the initial decline, the cable currency regained some ground after the release of Nationwide Housing Price data, which showed a year-over-year rise of 3.7% in November, beating expectations of 2.4%.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, housing prices increased by 1.2% month-over-month, significantly higher than the forecasted 0.2% growth.
Therefore, the data offered temporary relief to the Pound as it highlighted underlying resilience in the UK housing market.
Interest Rate Cuts Expected from BoE and Fed: Impact on GBP/USD
Investors are closely watching interest rate decisions from both the Bank of England (BoE) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed), as these are major drivers of currency valuations.
Both central banks are expected to cut interest rates at their December meetings, with inflation easing in both the UK and the US.
The swaps market suggests a 60% chance of a 0.25% rate cut by the BoE, while the CME FedWatch tool shows a 67% probability of a similar cut by the Fed.
Therefore, the lower interest rates can make a currency less attractive to investors since they reduce returns on investments, which can lead to lower foreign capital inflows.
As a result, the Pound and US Dollar may face downward pressure, limiting volatility in the GBP/USD pair.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD pair is trading at $1.2692, showing cautious consolidation near the pivot point at $1.26758. The pair reflects indecision, with price movement closely aligned to key technical levels.
Immediate resistance stands at $1.27486, followed by $1.28086 and $1.28575. A breakout above $1.27486 could attract further bullish momentum, supported by the 50-day EMA at $1.26473, which reinforces underlying support.
On the downside, immediate support is identified at $1.26175, with further critical levels at $1.25669 and $1.25072. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at 50, indicating a balance between bullish and bearish forces. A sustained move below $1.26758 could drive prices toward $1.26175 and signal a broader bearish sentiment.
While the broader trend remains uncertain, the pair's proximity to its pivot point suggests a critical juncture. Bulls must reclaim $1.27486 for a potential rally, while failure to hold above $1.26758 may lead to downside risks.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Pivot point at $1.26157: A decisive break higher could lead to $1.26476.
- Support at $1.25363: A breach here may drive a move toward $1.24874.
- RSI at 52: Neutral territory, signaling consolidation with potential for breakout.
GBP/USD is trading at $1.25792, up 0.09%, reflecting cautious optimism amid mixed technical signals. On the 4-hour chart, the pair remains above its 50 EMA at $1.25722, suggesting moderate support for current levels.
The pivot point at $1.26157 is a critical barrier; a sustained move above this level could target immediate resistance at $1.26476, followed by $1.26747.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.25363, with further levels at $1.25112 and $1.24874. A break below $1.25363 would likely shift momentum toward bearish territory, exposing the pair to declines toward $1.24874 or lower.
Technical indicators paint a neutral-to-slightly-bullish picture. The RSI stands at 52, indicating consolidation near the midpoint of the range. While not overbought, the pair lacks significant upward momentum, keeping price action restrained.
The outlook hinges on the pivot point at $1.26157. A breakout above this key level would affirm bullish sentiment and open the door for a move toward $1.26476 and beyond.
Conversely, failure to hold above the 50 EMA at $1.25722 or a decisive break below $1.25363 could prompt sellers to regain control, leading to short-term bearish pressure.
GBP/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.25792
Take Profit – 1.25337
Stop Loss – 1.26107
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$455/ -$315
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$315/ -$31
EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Pivot Point at $1.05203: A key barrier; breakout needed to target $1.05625.
- Support at $1.04378: A breach may accelerate declines to $1.03854.
- RSI at 49: Neutral, with potential for oversold bounce or further bearish action.
EUR/USD is trading at $1.04850, down 0.03%, as the pair struggles to hold above key technical levels. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point at $1.05203 serves as a significant hurdle, with immediate resistance at $1.05625 and further resistance at $1.06071.
A break above these levels could indicate a reversal of the recent bearish sentiment and open the door for further gains.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.04378, with additional levels at $1.03854 and $1.03489. The pair is currently hovering near its 50 EMA, which sits at $1.04776. This level is providing short-term support, but a sustained break below it could reinforce bearish momentum.
The RSI is at 49, reflecting a neutral bias but leaning slightly toward oversold territory. This suggests that while the pair is under pressure, it may find temporary relief if buyers step in near current support levels.
The outlook for EUR/USD depends heavily on its ability to regain traction above the $1.05203 pivot point. A failure to break this level could see the pair retest support at $1.04378, potentially triggering further declines. Conversely, a move above $1.05625 would indicate bullish momentum, shifting the focus toward higher resistance levels.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.04893
Take Profit – 1.04366
Stop Loss – 1.05209
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$527/ -$316
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$52/ -$31
GBP/USD Price Analysis – Nov 27, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair edged higher and reached an intra-day high of 1.2620. This rise comes as the US Dollar loses some ground because US President-elect Donald Trump nominated Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary.
The market hopes Bessent will help carry out Trump’s trade policies slowly and carefully to avoid a full trade war. On the other hand, the British Pound is being cautious due to worries about how Trump’s tariffs might impact the UK’s exports.
US Dollar Faces Pressure Amid Trade Policy Uncertainty and Fed Rate Cut Expectations
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been under pressure this week after President-elect Donald Trump nominated Scott Bessent, an experienced hedge fund manager, for Treasury Secretary.
Investors believe Bessent will help implement Trump’s trade policies carefully to avoid a major trade war. This uncertainty has caused the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, to weaken.
On the other side, investors are closely watching the possibility of a rate cut in December. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the likelihood of the Fed reducing interest rates by 0.25% has increased to 65% from 56% last week.
This is mainly due to the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on Tuesday, which showed that some officials are open to pausing rate cuts if inflation stays high, while others believe further cuts might be needed if economic conditions worsen.
Moving on, investors will focus on the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data for October, set to be released at 15:00 GMT. Economists predict that the core PCE inflation – which excludes food and energy prices – will rise to 2.8% year-over-year, up from 2.7% in September, with a steady 0.3% monthly increase.
Therefore, the uncertainty around US trade policies and the potential rate cut by the Fed could weaken the US dollar, which may support a rise in the GBP/USD pair. If inflation data aligns with expectations, the Pound could strengthen further against the Dollar.
Pound Sterling Faces Uncertainty Amid US Tariff Concerns and BoE Rate Expectations
On the other hand, the Pound Sterling is showing uncertain price movement against other major currencies as concerns grow about the impact of US tariffs on the UK’s export sector. These worries are making traders wary, affecting the Pound’s performance.
In an interview with the Financial Times, Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli spoke about the potential impact of US tariffs on the UK economy. She acknowledged that trade barriers could harm economic growth in the short, medium, and long term but refrained from making any specific predictions about how severe the effect might be.
This week, there are no significant UK economic updates. As a result, the British Pound’s movement will likely depend on market expectations regarding the BoE’s interest rate decision in December. Currently, traders expect the BoE to keep interest rates steady at 4.75% next month, waiting for more data before deciding on future actions.
Therefore, the uncertainty surrounding US tariffs and the Bank of England's cautious stance on interest rates may weigh on the British Pound. This could limit any significant upward movement for GBP/USD, as traders await further economic data and BoE's rate decision in December.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is trading at $1.25792, up 0.09%, reflecting cautious optimism amid mixed technical signals. On the 4-hour chart, the pair remains above its 50 EMA at $1.25722, suggesting moderate support for current levels.
The pivot point at $1.26157 is a critical barrier; a sustained move above this level could target immediate resistance at $1.26476, followed by $1.26747.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.25363, with further levels at $1.25112 and $1.24874. A break below $1.25363 would likely shift momentum toward bearish territory, exposing the pair to declines toward $1.24874 or lower.
Technical indicators paint a neutral-to-slightly-bullish picture. The RSI stands at 52, indicating consolidation near the midpoint of the range. While not overbought, the pair lacks significant upward momentum, keeping price action restrained.
The outlook hinges on the pivot point at $1.26157. A breakout above this key level would affirm bullish sentiment and open the door for a move toward $1.26476 and beyond.
Conversely, failure to hold above the 50 EMA at $1.25722 or a decisive break below $1.25363 could prompt sellers to regain control, leading to short-term bearish pressure.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – Nov 25, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair maintained its upward momentum, staying well supported around 1.2567 and reaching an intra-day high of 1.2607. This rise was driven by several factors. The Pound Sterling made a strong recovery after a sharp sell-off on Friday, triggered by disappointing UK economic data.
However, market sentiment on Monday was more positive, helping the Pound regain ground. Meanwhile, the US Dollar started the week weaker, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) falling by 0.5% to near 107.00, offering relief to the GBP/USD pair.
Furthermore, technical factors played a role in the Pound's recovery, as it made a notable attempt to break through the key resistance level of 1.2600, signaling strength and resilience. Traders will be watching closely to see if this upward momentum can be sustained in the coming days.
Weaker US Dollar and Positive US Economic Data Fuel GBP/USD Recovery
On the data front, the broad-based US Dollar edged lower at the start of the week, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) trading 0.5% down near 107.00.
This decline helped the Pound Sterling (GBP) gain ground, as it attempted to extend its recovery above the key resistance level of 1.2600 against the US Dollar (USD).
The weaker USD allowed the GBP/USD currency pair to make a strong start to the week, supported by some positive sentiment in the market.
Meanwhile, US 10-year Treasury yields dropped to around 4.33% after investors reacted to President-elect Donald Trump’s choice of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. Some analysts were pleased with the appointment, seeing it as a reassuring sign for Wall Street.
They noted that Bessent’s approach would focus on implementing tariffs, cutting government spending, and maintaining the US Dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency.
In addition, upbeat flash S&P Global PMI data for November showed an improving US economy, with the Composite PMI rising to 55.3, the highest in 31 months. This suggested that the manufacturing sector’s decline was slowing down, and the services sector was growing faster than expected.
As a result, traders are split on what the Federal Reserve will do at its December meeting, with 56% expecting a 25 basis point rate cut and 44% predicting that rates will stay the same.
Therefore, the weaker US Dollar and positive market sentiment helped the GBP/USD pair extend its recovery above 1.2600. The drop in US Treasury yields and favorable US economic data further supported the Pound's strength, boosting its upward momentum against the Dollar.
BoE's Cautious Stance Supports Pound Recovery Amid Weak UK Economic Data
On the BoE front, the British Pound faced a tough time on Friday due to disappointing UK economic data. Retail Sales in October fell by 0.7%, as shoppers held back spending ahead of the UK government’s new budget.
This decline in consumer activity, along with a weaker-than-expected flash S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI for November, put pressure on the Pound. Meanwhile, the PMI dropped below the 50.0 threshold, signaling a slowdown in both the manufacturing and services sectors.
However, the Pound is showing signs of recovery, supported by growing market expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will take a cautious approach to easing monetary policy.
Traders believe the BoE may keep interest rates unchanged at 4.75% during the upcoming December meeting. Furthermore, they are pricing in a 75 basis point rate cut, bringing rates down to 4% by 2025. This outlook has helped stabilize the Pound and may encourage further gains.
Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor speeches from BoE officials, including Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli and external policy member Swati Dhingra, for any new guidance on the central bank’s interest rate decisions.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is trading at $1.25917, up 0.52%, reflecting a positive tone amid risk-on sentiment. The pair is holding above the pivot point at $1.26373, signaling potential for continued bullish momentum. Immediate resistance is seen at $1.26738, with further targets at $1.27143. However, failure to break higher could lead to consolidation or a pullback toward the pivot.
On the downside, immediate support is located at $1.25673, with key levels at $1.25394 and $1.25019 offering additional safety nets. The 50 EMA at $1.25830 reinforces the bullish structure, providing dynamic support and signaling strong upward momentum.
The RSI at 59 indicates bullish sentiment, suggesting room for further upside. Traders are eyeing an entry below $1.26040 for potential short positions, targeting $1.25552, with a stop loss at $1.26272 to manage risk.
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