Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 18, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Apr 18, 20244 min

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair has extended its strong upward rally and still flashing green around 0.6445 level. However, the reason for its upward trend can be attributed to the multiple factors including the upbeat performance of ASX 200 Index's.

The ASX 200 Index, a key indicator of Australia's stock market performance, has been gaining ground, particularly notable on Thursday. This upward movement in the index has a positive impact on the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the US Dollar (USD), contributing to the bullish trend in the AUD/USD currency pair.

At the same time, there has been a decline in US Treasury yields, which affects the strength of the US Dollar. Lower yields can reduce the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets, leading to a weaker US Dollar. This downward pressure on the USD also supports the bullish performance of the AUD/USD pair.

Australian Dollar Strength and Economic Data Impact on AUD/USD Pair

On the AUD front, the Australian Dollar is gaining strength as the ASX 200 Index rises. This boost is fueled by mining stocks performing well due to higher metals prices. A report from Westpac mentions that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) doesn't plan to increase rates soon but wants to be more confident about inflation before considering rate cuts.

On the data front, Australia's Employment Change in March was -6.6K, falling short of the expected 7.2K and the previous 117.6K. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate rose to 3.8%, slightly below the anticipated 3.9% but higher than the previous 3.7%.

Therefore, the AUD/USD currency pair see upward pressure due to the Australian Dollar gaining strength from a rising ASX 200 Index and positive mining stocks. However, weaker employment data could potentially limit the AUD's gains.

Federal Reserve Concerns and Potential Impact on USD and AUD/USD Pair

On the US front, Federal Reserve officials in the US are worried because inflation is higher than they expected. Loretta Mester from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland said they need to be sure that inflation stays around 2%, and they might lower interest rates if the job market gets worse. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman also noticed that inflation is slowing down, and the policies they have now are a bit strict and need to be checked. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book survey found that the US economy is growing a little bit, but businesses are struggling with higher costs.

Therefore, the concerns expressed by Federal Reserve officials about inflation and monetary policy could impact the US Dollar, weakening it if a rate cut occurs due to worsening labor market conditions. This could influence the AUD/USD pair.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar (AUD) has shown resilience against the US dollar (USD) today, recording a modest gain of 0.31% to trade at $0.64541. This movement indicates a positive shift in market sentiment towards the AUD amidst varying global economic conditions.

The pair is currently trading just above its pivot point at $0.6439, suggesting a potential for further upward movement. Immediate resistance is observed at $0.6494, with subsequent levels at $0.6545 and $0.6591. These are critical junctures where sellers might emerge, capping further advances. On the downside, support can be found at $0.6401, $0.6373, and $0.6339. These levels will be crucial in preventing a reversal of the current gains.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49 mirrors the market’s neutrality, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, and suggests that there is room for movement in either direction. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is set at $0.65, slightly above the current price, indicating that the AUD/USD could face resistance as it attempts to regain higher levels.

Traders looking to capitalize on the AUD's current trajectory should consider entering the market at $0.64381, targeting a take profit at $0.64944, with a stop loss at $0.64018 to manage risk effectively.

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