AUD/USD Price Analysis – Jan 09, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair continued its losing streak, staying under pressure around the 0.6193 level.
The main reason for its downward rally can be traced to disappointing domestic economic data and concerns about China’s economic outlook.
China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, released on Thursday, showed that inflation is facing deflationary risks. In December, the annual inflation only rose by 0.1%, slightly lower than November's 0.2% increase, which aligned with market expectations.
Besides this, traders are awaiting Friday’s US Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report, as it may provide further direction for US Federal Reserve policy.
The US Dollar (USD) has been supported by hawkish signals from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes and growing concerns over potential tariff plans under the incoming Trump administration.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Strong Economic Data, While Australian Dollar Faces Pressure from Soft Inflation
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been holding strong, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) staying near the 109.00 level.
The Greenback is benefiting from hawkish signals in the Federal Reserve's (Fed) meeting minutes, as well as concerns over tariff plans from the incoming Trump administration. This strength in the dollar is also supported by rising US Treasury bond yields.
Moreover, the US labor market data provided positive signals. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 201,000, better than the expected 218,000. Meanwhile, the ADP Employment report showed a gain of 122K jobs in December, although this was below market expectations of 140K.
The ISM Services PMI also showed strong growth, rising to 54.1 from 52.1, beating the 53.3 forecast. The Prices Paid Index, a key inflation measure, also increased, indicating that inflationary pressures remain present.
Therefore, the strong US Dollar, supported by positive economic data and rising bond yields, puts pressure on the AUD/USD pair, likely causing the Australian Dollar to weaken further against the Greenback.
In contrast, the Australian Dollar (AUD) is facing challenges due to softer inflation data. Australia's core inflation, measured by the trimmed mean, fell to 3.2% annually from 3.5%, bringing it closer to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target range of 2-3%. This has led traders to expect a potential interest rate cut from the RBA.
Australia's CPI rose 2.3% year-over-year in November, slightly above expectations, but it remains within the RBA’s target range. Despite this, there is a growing expectation of a rate cut in the coming months.
Hence, the softer inflation data and expectations of an interest rate cut by the RBA are likely to weigh on the Australian Dollar, potentially leading to further weakness in the AUD/USD pair.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is trading at $0.61964, down 0.28%, as bearish sentiment dominates amid global risk-off conditions. The pair is struggling to maintain ground above its pivot point at $0.62190, signaling potential downside risks.
The 50 EMA at $0.62228 has turned into a near-term resistance level, further weighing on the currency pair. The RSI is hovering in bearish territory, reflecting subdued momentum.
Immediate resistance is located at $0.62730, followed by $0.63058 and $0.63393, marking levels to watch for any bullish recovery.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $0.61781, with stronger support at $0.61488 and $0.61208. A sustained move below the pivot point could trigger further selling pressure, targeting the $0.61781 level initially, followed by $0.61530.
Traders considering short positions might look to enter below $0.62172, targeting $0.61530 with a stop-loss at $0.62523.
While the pair remains bearish in the short term, a break above $0.62190 and the 50 EMA could signal a reversal, paving the way for a test of $0.62730.
However, the broader trend remains cautious as the pair reacts to key technical and macroeconomic drivers.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- AUD/USD struggles below the $0.62190 pivot, testing $0.61781 support.
- 50 EMA at $0.62228 reinforces resistance, keeping the trend bearish.
- RSI indicates weak momentum; further declines likely if $0.62190 breaks.
AUD/USD is trading at $0.61964, down 0.28%, as bearish sentiment dominates amid global risk-off conditions. The pair is struggling to maintain ground above its pivot point at $0.62190, signaling potential downside risks.
The 50 EMA at $0.62228 has turned into a near-term resistance level, further weighing on the currency pair. The RSI is hovering in bearish territory, reflecting subdued momentum.
Immediate resistance is located at $0.62730, followed by $0.63058 and $0.63393, marking levels to watch for any bullish recovery.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $0.61781, with stronger support at $0.61488 and $0.61208. A sustained move below the pivot point could trigger further selling pressure, targeting the $0.61781 level initially, followed by $0.61530.
Traders considering short positions might look to enter below $0.62172, targeting $0.61530 with a stop-loss at $0.62523.
While the pair remains bearish in the short term, a break above $0.62190 and the 50 EMA could signal a reversal, paving the way for a test of $0.62730.
However, the broader trend remains cautious as the pair reacts to key technical and macroeconomic drivers.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 0.62172
Take Profit – 0.61530
Stop Loss – 0.62523
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$642/ -$351
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$64/ -$35
AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance at $0.63058; further targets at $0.63393 and $0.63835.
- Support Zones: Immediate support at $0.61979; additional levels at $0.61616 and $0.61208.
- Momentum Indicators: RSI at 61 reflects moderate bullish momentum; price remains above the 50 EMA, signaling strength.
AUD/USD is trading at $0.62702, gaining 0.41% in the past 24 hours, as the pair builds momentum above the pivot point at $0.62433.
On the 4-hour chart, the price action reflects bullish sentiment, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61, indicating moderate strength.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.62250 provides a solid support base, aligning with the pivot point to sustain the upward trajectory.
Immediate resistance lies at $0.63058, and a break above this level could open the door for further gains toward $0.63393 and $0.63835. These targets align with key Fibonacci retracement levels, enhancing the bullish outlook.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $0.61979, followed by $0.61616 and $0.61208. A breach below $0.61979 could expose the pair to additional downside risks, challenging the current bullish momentum.
The technical structure indicates a favorable setup for buyers, with the pair holding above the 50 EMA and pivot point.
A sustained move above $0.63058 would confirm the bullish trend, while a failure to maintain this level could trigger consolidation or a pullback.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 0.62429
Take Profit – 0.63063
Stop Loss – 0.62053
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$634/ -$376
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$63/ -$37
AUD/USD Price Analysis – Jan 07, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair continued its upward movement, holding steady around the 0.6285 level and even reaching a high of 0.6288, despite weaker-than-expected Building Permits data for November.
However, the rise in the Australian dollar can largely be attributed to the overall positive market sentiment, which tends to favor riskier assets like the Aussie.
Nevertheless, the strength of the US dollar, driven by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, kept a lid on further gains for the AUD/USD pair.
Looking ahead, traders are eyeing the US ISM Services PMI report due later today, with the market also focused on the Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes set to be released on Wednesday.
Australia's Economic Weakness and China's Uncertainty Pose Risks to AUD/USD Pair
On the data front, Australia’s Building Permits for November 2024 showed a 3.6% month-on-month decline, falling short of the expected 1.0% decrease. This came after a 5.2% rise in October, marking the first decline in three months.
On Wednesday, all eyes will be on Australia’s Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November. If the data comes in lower than expected, it could increase the chances of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in February, which could put downward pressure on the Australian dollar.
In China, the services sector showed strong growth in December. The Caixin China Services PMI rose to 52.2, higher than the expected 51.7, signaling the fastest growth since May.
However, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.5, missing forecasts. China’s economic resilience is seen in reports of continued market openness, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange discussing plans to deepen the opening of capital markets. These economic changes in China often affect Australia due to their close trade ties.
Furthermore, the Judo Bank Australia Composite PMI for December 2024 was revised higher to 50.2, indicating modest growth in the private sector, with the services sector leading the way.
Meanwhile, the services sector in Australia has now grown for the eleventh consecutive month. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) also hinted at an interest rate cut in the near future, a move that could further influence the Australian economy due to the close trade relationship between the two countries.
Therefore, the weaker-than-expected Australian data, along with potential rate cuts by the RBA and economic uncertainty in China, could put downward pressure on the AUD. This may limit gains for the AUD/USD pair, especially with a strong US dollar.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is trading at $0.62702, gaining 0.41% in the past 24 hours, as the pair builds momentum above the pivot point at $0.62433.
On the 4-hour chart, the price action reflects bullish sentiment, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61, indicating moderate strength.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.62250 provides a solid support base, aligning with the pivot point to sustain the upward trajectory.
Immediate resistance lies at $0.63058, and a break above this level could open the door for further gains toward $0.63393 and $0.63835. These targets align with key Fibonacci retracement levels, enhancing the bullish outlook.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $0.61979, followed by $0.61616 and $0.61208. A breach below $0.61979 could expose the pair to additional downside risks, challenging the current bullish momentum.
The technical structure indicates a favorable setup for buyers, with the pair holding above the 50 EMA and pivot point.
A sustained move above $0.63058 would confirm the bullish trend, while a failure to maintain this level could trigger consolidation or a pullback.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance at $0.62755; next at $0.63058 and $0.63393.
- Support Zones: Key support at $0.61845; further levels at $0.61496 and $0.61208.
- Technical Indicators: RSI at 46 signals neutrality; price below 50 EMA at $0.62185 supports bearish momentum.
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.62044, up 0.24% in the last session, showing a modest recovery from recent lows. The 4-hour chart positions the pivot point at $0.62433, serving as a key level for traders.
Immediate resistance is seen at $0.62755, followed by $0.63058 and $0.63393, highlighting potential upside targets. On the downside, key support levels are positioned at $0.61845, $0.61496, and $0.61208, providing safety nets against selling pressure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46 suggests a neutral stance, signaling room for directional moves. The 50 EMA at $0.62185 reinforces a short-term bearish bias as the price remains below this level.
A sustained move below the $0.62203 entry point may trigger additional selling, with a potential target at $0.61693. Conversely, a break above $0.62433 could open the door to a recovery, targeting the $0.62755 resistance zone.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 0.62203
Take Profit – 0.61693
Stop Loss – 0.62538
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$510/ -$335
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$51/ -$33
AUD/USD Price Analysis – Jan 02, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Despite the downbeat Chinese Manufacturing PMI putting pressure on the Aussie Dollar, the AUD/USD currency pair managed to maintain its upward trend, staying well-supported around the 0.6215 level and even reaching an intra-day high of 0.6223.
However, the reason behind this rise can be traced back to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) comments.
The RBA board suggested that if future economic data aligns with or falls below expectations, it would strengthen confidence in inflation and create the right conditions to begin easing policy restrictions.
On the other hand, stronger-than-expected data might mean that restrictive policies need to stay in place longer.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock also pointed out that the continued strength of the labor market has made the RBA slower than other countries in beginning its monetary easing cycle.
Weaker Chinese Manufacturing PMI Puts Pressure on AUD/USD Amid Global Economic Uncertainty
On the data front, China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dropped to 50.5 in December, down from 51.5 in November.
The market had expected a reading of 51.7 for the month. Despite the decline, the data still indicates expansion, with manufacturers' output and demand continuing to grow.
The output gauge stayed in expansion for the 14th straight month, and new orders increased for the third consecutive month.
However, growth in both output and new orders slowed compared to November, as production and sales of investment goods fell, and exports were weaker due to ongoing uncertainties in the global economy and trade.
In addition to the Caixin PMI data, China's official Manufacturing PMI, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), also showed a slowdown, easing to 50.1 in December from 50.3 in November.
This missed market expectations of 50.3. On a positive note, the Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.2, higher than the 50.0 in November and the forecast of 50.2.
Overall, while manufacturing growth slowed, the non-manufacturing sector showed stronger performance, pointing to mixed economic conditions in China as it faces challenges from both domestic and international factors.
Therefore, the weaker-than-expected Chinese Manufacturing PMI data signals economic challenges, which could dampen demand for commodities and impact Australia's export-driven economy.
As a result, the AUD/USD pair may face downward pressure, reflecting concerns about slowing global growth.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Fed's Hawkish Stance and Global Uncertainties
On the US front, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has surged to multi-year highs, trading around 108.50. This rise is largely due to the US Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance on interest rates.
The Fed has signaled that it may take a more cautious approach to rate cuts in 2025, which has strengthened the US Dollar.
The shift in policy comes as the market anticipates economic strategies from the incoming Trump administration, which creates uncertainty about future policy changes.
In addition to the Fed's stance, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war are expected to support the US Dollar in the short term.
As a safe-haven currency, the USD tends to strengthen during times of global instability. Traders are also cautious about President-elect Trump’s economic policies, particularly the possibility of higher tariffs, which could increase the cost of living.
These concerns, along with the Fed’s recent projections indicating fewer rate cuts in 2025, suggest that the US Dollar will continue to hold its strength due to ongoing inflationary pressures and global uncertainties.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.62044, up 0.24% in the last session, showing a modest recovery from recent lows. The 4-hour chart positions the pivot point at $0.62433, serving as a key level for traders.
Immediate resistance is seen at $0.62755, followed by $0.63058 and $0.63393, highlighting potential upside targets. On the downside, key support levels are positioned at $0.61845, $0.61496, and $0.61208, providing safety nets against selling pressure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46 suggests a neutral stance, signaling room for directional moves. The 50 EMA at $0.62185 reinforces a short-term bearish bias as the price remains below this level.
A sustained move below the $0.62203 entry point may trigger additional selling, with a potential target at $0.61693. Conversely, a break above $0.62433 could open the door to a recovery, targeting the $0.62755 resistance zone.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Pivot Importance: AUD/USD below $0.62433 reinforces a bearish outlook; reclaiming this level is key for recovery.
- Support Levels: Immediate support at $0.62004, with critical levels at $0.61576 and $0.61208.
- Momentum Signals: RSI at 45 and price below 50 EMA indicate limited bullish momentum in the short term.
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.62160, down 0.07%, reflecting continued bearish sentiment. The pivot point at $0.62433 acts as a critical juncture, with the pair struggling to regain upward momentum.
Immediate resistance lies at $0.62755, followed by $0.63058 and $0.63439, marking key levels for a potential bullish recovery. On the downside, support levels are seen at $0.62004, with deeper protection at $0.61576 and $0.61208.
The 4-hour chart shows the pair trading below its 50 EMA at $0.62257, signaling near-term weakness in the broader downtrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 45, reflecting neutral-to-bearish conditions without signaling oversold levels.
A decisive break below the support at $0.62004 could intensify selling pressure, targeting the next critical level at $0.61576. Conversely, a move above $0.62433 would invalidate the bearish setup and may pave the way for a recovery toward $0.62755.
Market sentiment remains cautious as traders weigh concerns over global growth prospects and subdued commodity demand, which often weighs on the Australian dollar.
With thin year-end liquidity, the pair's movement will depend heavily on holding critical support levels while breaking resistance at $0.62433 for bullish momentum to emerge.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 0.62299
Take Profit – 0.61789
Stop Loss – 0.62634
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$510/ -$335
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$51/ -$33
AUD/USD Price Analysis – Dec 31, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
The Aussie Dollar (AUD) was quiet against the US Dollar (USD) after China released its December Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI numbers. China’s official Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.1, down from 50.3 and missed expectations. Non-Manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.2, up from 50.0 and above expectations of 50.2.
As Australia’s largest trading partner, we feel the ripples of China’s economic movements. The weak manufacturing data has us worried about exports, while the bounce in the service and construction sectors is a glimmer of hope.
RBA and Market Sentiment
RBA minutes showed the board is cautiously optimistic on inflation. They reiterated that they will keep rates on hold until inflation is more clearly stable. RBA Governor Michele Bullock said Australia’s labour market is more resilient than other countries so they can delay rate cuts compared to other central banks.
US Dollar Index (DXY) held around 108.00 as expectations of fewer Fed rate cuts in 2025. US Treasury yields fell on Monday with 2-year at 4.24% and 10-year at 4.53%. This left the AUD exposed to external winds and geopolitics.
Geopolitics and Economic Policy
Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions added to the risk premium on the AUD. Traders are also worried about President-elect Trump’s policies and tariffs will increase costs. Add to that the Fed’s reluctance to cut rates and we have market uncertainty.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.62160, down 0.07%, reflecting continued bearish sentiment. The pivot point at $0.62433 acts as a critical juncture, with the pair struggling to regain upward momentum.
Immediate resistance lies at $0.62755, followed by $0.63058 and $0.63439, marking key levels for a potential bullish recovery. On the downside, support levels are seen at $0.62004, with deeper protection at $0.61576 and $0.61208.
The 4-hour chart shows the pair trading below its 50 EMA at $0.62257, signaling near-term weakness in the broader downtrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 45, reflecting neutral-to-bearish conditions without signaling oversold levels.
A decisive break below the support at $0.62004 could intensify selling pressure, targeting the next critical level at $0.61576. Conversely, a move above $0.62433 would invalidate the bearish setup and may pave the way for a recovery toward $0.62755.
Market sentiment remains cautious as traders weigh concerns over global growth prospects and subdued commodity demand, which often weighs on the Australian dollar.
With thin year-end liquidity, the pair's movement will depend heavily on holding critical support levels while breaking resistance at $0.62433 for bullish momentum to emerge.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- AUD/USD remains below $0.62511, signaling bearish potential.
- RSI at 48 indicates neutral sentiment, leaning bearish.
- 50-day EMA at $0.62391 reinforces near-term resistance.
The AUD/USD is trading at $0.62369, up 0.07% in the last session, reflecting cautious market sentiment. The pair remains below the pivot point of $0.62511, signaling potential bearish pressure unless it breaks above this level.
Immediate resistance lies at $0.63068, followed by $0.63420 and $0.63812, which could act as key upside targets if the bullish momentum strengthens. On the downside, support is located at $0.62004, with additional levels at $0.61565 and $0.61090, which could be tested if selling pressure intensifies.
Technical indicators paint a mixed picture. The RSI is at 48, reflecting a neutral sentiment with a slight bearish inclination.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.62391 is near the current price, providing a dynamic resistance level that aligns with the broader downward bias. A failure to reclaim $0.62511 could result in a deeper pullback toward $0.62004 or lower.
The pair’s price action is likely to hinge on the $0.62511 pivot point. A sustained move above this level would indicate recovery potential, targeting $0.63068, while a rejection may confirm further downside. Traders may consider a sell limit order at $0.62518, targeting $0.62008, with a stop loss at $0.62853 to manage risk effectively.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Limit 0.62518
Take Profit – 0.62008
Stop Loss – 0.62853
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$510/ -$335
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$51/ -$33
AUD/USD Price Analysis – Dec 26, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD pair struggled for the second day in a row on Thursday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar and the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) December meeting minutes.
The US Dollar bounced back after a steep decline, as Federal Reserve officials hinted at fewer rate cuts next year, pointing to a slowdown in easing inflation. This recovery pushed the dollar close to a two-year high, putting pressure on the Aussie and other Asian currencies.
US Economic Data and Fed's Stance Strengthen US Dollar, Weighing on AUD/USD Pair
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar rebounded after a sharp sell-off, as Federal Reserve officials signaled fewer interest rate cuts next year due to a slowdown in the disinflation process. However, soft US PCE data have kept inflation concerns in check, leading to a mixed economic outlook.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now expect a nearly 93% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January, maintaining the current range of 4.25%-4.50%.
US Durable Goods Orders for November came in weaker than expected, falling by 1.1% compared to the forecasted 0.4% drop. This follows an upward revision in October, which saw a 0.8% increase, up from an initial 0.2% gain.
Meanwhile, US Consumer Confidence dropped 8.1 points in December to 104.7, signaling that the earlier rebound in consumer confidence was not sustained.
Concerns over President-elect Trump’s economic policies, particularly around tariffs, have added to household worries about rising living costs.
These concerns were further reflected in the Federal Open Market Committee's projections, which suggested fewer rate cuts in 2025 due to persistent inflation pressures.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack noted that she prefers to keep interest rates steady until there is more evidence of inflation heading back to the Fed’s 2% target.
Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee revised his forecast for 2025, expecting fewer rate cuts than previously anticipated.
US core PCE inflation rose 2.8% year-over-year, slower than expected, while monthly inflation grew by just 0.1%, showing moderate price increases. This mixed data adds to the pressure on the AUD/USD pair.
Therefore, the mixed US economic data, along with expectations for fewer rate cuts, strengthens the US Dollar, putting downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair.
The market's uncertainty about inflation and interest rates further intensifies bearish sentiment for the Aussie Dollar.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD is trading at $0.62369, up 0.07% in the last session, reflecting cautious market sentiment. The pair remains below the pivot point of $0.62511, signaling potential bearish pressure unless it breaks above this level.
Immediate resistance lies at $0.63068, followed by $0.63420 and $0.63812, which could act as key upside targets if the bullish momentum strengthens. On the downside, support is located at $0.62004, with additional levels at $0.61565 and $0.61090, which could be tested if selling pressure intensifies.
Technical indicators paint a mixed picture. The RSI is at 48, reflecting a neutral sentiment with a slight bearish inclination.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.62391 is near the current price, providing a dynamic resistance level that aligns with the broader downward bias. A failure to reclaim $0.62511 could result in a deeper pullback toward $0.62004 or lower.
The pair’s price action is likely to hinge on the $0.62511 pivot point. A sustained move above this level would indicate recovery potential, targeting $0.63068, while a rejection may confirm further downside. Traders may consider a sell limit order at $0.62518, targeting $0.62008, with a stop loss at $0.62853 to manage risk effectively.
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