AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- AUD/USD hovers near $0.62451, consolidating around the $0.62762 pivot.
- Immediate resistance at $0.63375 and support at $0.61761.
- RSI at 49 indicates neutral momentum; price action will define direction.
The AUD/USD pair remains under pressure, trading at $0.62451, a slight decline of 0.03%. The pair is currently hovering near the pivot point of $0.62762, which will play a crucial role in determining the short-term trend.
Immediate resistance is found at $0.63375, with additional resistance levels at $0.63899 and $0.64509. On the downside, immediate support is located at $0.61761, with further critical support at $0.61232 and $0.60746.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $0.62502, closely aligned with the current price, suggesting consolidation in this range. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49 indicates neutral momentum, with no clear bias toward either direction.
A break above the $0.62762 pivot point could see the pair testing higher resistance levels, while a failure to hold above support may trigger further downside movement, with the next support target at $0.61761.
Traders should be cautious as market volatility remains heightened, particularly during the holiday season with reduced liquidity. A sustained break above $0.62762 could shift the bias towards the upside, while a dip below $0.61761 might lead to further declines toward $0.61232.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Limit 0.62753
Take Profit – 0.62753
Stop Loss – 0.63391
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1000/ -$638
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$100/ -$63
AUD/USD Price Analysis – Dec 24, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD pair continued its downward slide, staying under pressure near the 0.6237 level and even hitting an intra-day low of 0.6224.
This drop can largely be attributed to the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Meeting Minutes for its December policy meeting.
The minutes suggested that the RBA might start cutting rates in February, which has weighed on the Australian dollar.
On top of that, trading activity remained light ahead of the Christmas holiday, adding to the subdued market mood.
Meanwhile, the US dollar made a strong comeback after a sharp sell-off, as Federal Reserve officials hinted at fewer rate cuts next year due to a slower-than-expected decline in inflation.
The rebound in the US dollar played a key role in supporting the downward trend of the AUD/USD pair.
RBA’s Cautious Stance and Strong US Dollar Weigh on AUD/USD
On the AUD front, the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Meeting Minutes for December’s policy meeting caused the Australian Dollar to weaken against the US Dollar for the second day in a row.
The minutes revealed that the RBA board is now more confident about inflation compared to earlier meetings but acknowledged ongoing risks.
They stressed the importance of keeping monetary policy tight until there’s more certainty that inflation is under control. Meanwhile, trading activity is expected to remain quiet as markets slow down ahead of the Christmas holiday.
The RBA also mentioned that if upcoming data matches or falls below expectations, it could build confidence in inflation trends and support easing policy. However, stronger-than-expected data may require keeping policy restrictive for a longer period.
Governor Michele Bullock pointed to the strong labor market as a key reason why the RBA has taken a slower approach to monetary easing compared to other countries. This cautious stance reflects the need to balance economic growth while managing inflation effectively.
Therefore, the cautious stance of the RBA and the possibility of prolonged restrictive policies, combined with the US Dollar's strength, has pressured the AUD/USD pair. This led to the Australian Dollar weakening for a second consecutive day, reflecting bearish sentiment.
Mixed US Economic Data and Fed's Cautious Stance Weigh on AUD/USD
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar remained firm as Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers signaled fewer interest rate cuts next year due to slowing disinflation.
However, soft US PCE inflation data eased some concerns, presenting a mixed economic outlook. The core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, rose 2.8% year-over-year, slightly below expectations of 2.9%. Monthly core inflation increased by 0.1%, less than the 0.2% forecast.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets see a 93% chance of the Fed holding interest rates steady in January within the 4.25%–4.50% range. Weak US Durable Goods Orders for November, which fell by 1.1% versus the expected 0.4% drop, further signaled economic challenges.
Meanwhile, US Consumer Confidence declined sharply in December, with the index dropping by 8.1 points to 104.7, reflecting uncertainty about the economy.
Concerns about tariffs and inflationary pressures were highlighted, with households expressing worries over the impact of President-elect Trump’s policies.
Fed officials, including Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, also hinted at a cautious approach to rate changes, emphasizing the need to monitor inflation closely.
These developments underline the mixed sentiment in the US economy, balancing inflation concerns with weakening economic indicators.
Consequently, the mixed economic outlook in the US, with soft inflation data and weaker consumer confidence, may have limited the US Dollar's strength. However, the Fed's cautious stance on interest rate cuts could still support the US Dollar, putting pressure on the AUD/USD pair.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair remains under pressure, trading at $0.62451, a slight decline of 0.03%. The pair is currently hovering near the pivot point of $0.62762, which will play a crucial role in determining the short-term trend.
Immediate resistance is found at $0.63375, with additional resistance levels at $0.63899 and $0.64509. On the downside, immediate support is located at $0.61761, with further critical support at $0.61232 and $0.60746.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $0.62502, closely aligned with the current price, suggesting consolidation in this range. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49 indicates neutral momentum, with no clear bias toward either direction.
A break above the $0.62762 pivot point could see the pair testing higher resistance levels, while a failure to hold above support may trigger further downside movement, with the next support target at $0.61761.
Traders should be cautious as market volatility remains heightened, particularly during the holiday season with reduced liquidity. A sustained break above $0.62762 could shift the bias towards the upside, while a dip below $0.61761 might lead to further declines toward $0.61232.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – Dec 19, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Despite the strong US dollar, the AUD/USD pair managed to maintain its bullish momentum, trading confidently around the 2,617 level and briefly reaching a high of 2,626.
This upward trend was largely supported by Australia's positive Consumer Inflation Expectations report released on Thursday.
However, the Australian dollar faced some challenges due to growing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might cut interest rates sooner and more aggressively than previously anticipated.
Meanwhile, the US dollar's strength, fueled by the Federal Reserve's hawkish 25 basis-point rate cut during its December meeting, played a significant role in limiting the AUD/USD pair's gains.
Impact of Rising Inflation Expectations and Global Uncertainties on the AUD/USD Pair
Australia's Consumer Inflation Expectations surged to 4.2% in December, up from 3.8% the previous month, marking the highest level since September. This indicates rising price pressures within the economy.
Despite this, the Australian dollar faces significant challenges due to growing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may cut interest rates sooner and more aggressively than initially anticipated.
National Australia Bank (NAB) predicts the first rate cut could occur as early as May 2025, with February also being a possibility.
They forecast the unemployment rate to peak at 4.3% before gradually improving to 4.2% by 2026, while inflation is expected to ease slowly to 2.7% by late 2025.
In addition, Australia’s consumer confidence has taken a hit, with Westpac's Consumer Confidence Index falling by 2% to 92.8 points in December, reversing two months of positive momentum.
This signals growing concerns among households about the economic outlook. Globally, external factors are also exerting pressure on the Australian dollar.
China, Australia’s largest trading partner, has set a growth target of around 5% for 2025. However, uncertainties surrounding the US potentially imposing 10% tariffs on Chinese exports and a record $45.7 billion net outflow from China's capital markets in November have raised concerns about economic stability.
Chinese authorities, under President Xi Jinping, are working to boost the economy by increasing the fiscal deficit and focusing on consumption-driven growth. However, the lack of clear details on fiscal support has added to the uncertainty surrounding the Australian dollar.
Given China's importance to Australia’s trade, these economic uncertainties, combined with cautious signals from the RBA, are weighing on the outlook for the Australian dollar, limiting its gains against the US dollar.
Therefore, the rising inflation expectations in Australia and concerns about potential interest rate cuts by the RBA, combined with global uncertainties like China’s economic challenges, are putting downward pressure on the AUD, limiting its gains against the US dollar in the AUD/USD pair.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.62204, marking a modest gain of 0.07% in the current session. Despite the uptick, the pair remains under bearish pressure, trading below its pivot point at $0.62746.
Immediate resistance is seen at $0.63375, with additional hurdles at $0.63899 and $0.64509. On the downside, immediate support lies at $0.61720, followed by $0.61232 and $0.60746.
Technical indicators suggest further downside risks. The RSI at 25 highlights oversold conditions, implying limited room for additional bearish moves in the short term.
However, the 50 EMA at $0.65234 underscores a broader bearish trend, with the AUD/USD pair struggling to sustain any recovery above key levels.
A failure to reclaim the pivot point at $0.62746 could encourage further selling pressure, targeting the immediate support at $0.61720.
A decisive break below this level might expose the pair to deeper losses toward $0.61232 and $0.60746. On the upside, clearing the pivot and sustaining momentum above $0.63375 would be crucial for a bullish reversal.
Traders may consider a sell limit at $0.62763, targeting $0.61845, with a stop-loss placed at $0.63382.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Immediate Resistance: $0.63375; immediate support at $0.61720.
- RSI Oversold: At 25, indicating limited downside but weak recovery prospects.
- 50 EMA: At $0.65234, signaling a persistent bearish trend.
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.62204, marking a modest gain of 0.07% in the current session. Despite the uptick, the pair remains under bearish pressure, trading below its pivot point at $0.62746.
Immediate resistance is seen at $0.63375, with additional hurdles at $0.63899 and $0.64509. On the downside, immediate support lies at $0.61720, followed by $0.61232 and $0.60746.
Technical indicators suggest further downside risks. The RSI at 25 highlights oversold conditions, implying limited room for additional bearish moves in the short term.
However, the 50 EMA at $0.65234 underscores a broader bearish trend, with the AUD/USD pair struggling to sustain any recovery above key levels.
A failure to reclaim the pivot point at $0.62746 could encourage further selling pressure, targeting the immediate support at $0.61720.
A decisive break below this level might expose the pair to deeper losses toward $0.61232 and $0.60746. On the upside, clearing the pivot and sustaining momentum above $0.63375 would be crucial for a bullish reversal.
Traders may consider a sell limit at $0.62763, targeting $0.61845, with a stop-loss placed at $0.63382.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Limit 0.62763
Take Profit – 0.61845
Stop Loss – 0.63382
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$918/ -$619
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$91/ -$61
AUD/USD Price Analysis – Dec 17, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD pair extended its downward trend, struggling to hold ground and slipping to an intra-day low of 0.6337, remaining under pressure near the 0.6340 level.
The pair's decline is largely driven by a bullish US Dollar (USD), which is benefiting from firm expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will signal a more cautious approach to easing monetary policy during its upcoming meeting on Wednesday.
This comes after the Fed is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to a range of 4.25%-4.50%.
On the other hand, the Australian Dollar remains weak, weighed down by a subdued market sentiment and rising speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may start cutting its Official Cash Rate (OCR) as early as February.
These factors, combined with the overall risk-averse mood, are keeping the AUD/USD pair under persistent selling pressure. Traders are now closely watching key economic developments and central bank signals for the next directional move.
Australian Dollar Weakens Amid Economic Concerns and Trade Tensions
On the AUD front, the Australian Dollar (AUD) is struggling across the board due to a weak market sentiment and growing concerns that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might start cutting its key interest rate (Official Cash Rate, or OCR) as early as February.
This has put pressure on the currency, as traders expect further easing of monetary policy. Additionally, a 2% decline in Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence for December, following a 5.3% increase in November, has raised concerns about the country's economic outlook.
Furthermore, the AUD is also being weighed down by external factors, particularly concerns about China's economic growth. With US President-elect Donald Trump expected to impose new tariffs on China, the Australian Dollar is feeling the pressure.
This is especially concerning for Australia, as China is its largest trading partner. The combination of internal economic worries and external trade tensions is keeping the AUD under strain and contributing to its ongoing weakness.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) continues to face bearish pressure, trading at $0.63458, down 0.38% for the session. On the 4-hour chart, the pair has slipped below the pivot point at $0.63619, reinforcing near-term downward momentum.
Immediate resistance lies at $0.63823, closely aligned with the 50 EMA at $0.63719, which adds a dynamic ceiling for further recovery. Any sustained move above this level could target the next resistance at $0.64025 and extend gains toward $0.64287.
On the downside, immediate support is observed at $0.63367. A break below this level opens the door for sellers to test further support at $0.63156 and potentially extend declines toward $0.62957.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 36, signaling a bearish trend with oversold conditions approaching.
Technical indicators suggest sellers remain firmly in control, with the price trading below both the pivot point and the 50 EMA, highlighting a sustained bearish outlook.
The pair’s inability to reclaim $0.63619 confirms strong selling pressure, with a potential for further downside if the current sentiment persists.
Conclusion: Traders may consider a Sell Stop entry at $0.63509, targeting a take-profit level of $0.63171, with a stop-loss placed at $0.63800 to manage risk.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- AUD/USD remains bearish, trading below the pivot at $0.63619 and the 50 EMA.
- RSI at 36 indicates bearish momentum with oversold signals nearing.
- Entry strategy: Sell Stop $0.63509, Take Profit $0.63171, Stop Loss $0.63800.
The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) continues to face bearish pressure, trading at $0.63458, down 0.38% for the session. On the 4-hour chart, the pair has slipped below the pivot point at $0.63619, reinforcing near-term downward momentum.
Immediate resistance lies at $0.63823, closely aligned with the 50 EMA at $0.63719, which adds a dynamic ceiling for further recovery. Any sustained move above this level could target the next resistance at $0.64025 and extend gains toward $0.64287.
On the downside, immediate support is observed at $0.63367. A break below this level opens the door for sellers to test further support at $0.63156 and potentially extend declines toward $0.62957.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 36, signaling a bearish trend with oversold conditions approaching.
Technical indicators suggest sellers remain firmly in control, with the price trading below both the pivot point and the 50 EMA, highlighting a sustained bearish outlook.
The pair’s inability to reclaim $0.63619 confirms strong selling pressure, with a potential for further downside if the current sentiment persists.
Conclusion: Traders may consider a Sell Stop entry at $0.63509, targeting a take-profit level of $0.63171, with a stop-loss placed at $0.63800 to manage risk.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Stop 0.63509
Take Profit – 0.63171
Stop Loss – 0.63800
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.16
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$338/ -$291
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$33/ -$29
AUD/USD Price Analysis – Dec 12, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair kept its upward momentum, staying strong around the 0.6418 level and reaching a peak of 0.6430.
The Australian dollar remained supported by mixed domestic employment data, with the seasonally adjusted Employment Change showing a rise of 35,600 jobs in November.
This pushed the total number of employed people to 14,535,500, far exceeding the previous figure of 12,100 and the expected 25,000.
Additionally, the Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.9%, the lowest since March, better than the anticipated 4.2%. However, the Australian dollar faced some headwinds as the US dollar strengthened after the release of the US inflation data.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US rose to 2.7% year-over-year in November, up from 2.6% in October. On top of that, concerns over China’s economic response to potential US tariff hikes added more downward pressure on the AUD.
Impact of Mixed Economic Data and US-China Tensions on the AUD/USD Pair
On the China front, the Australian dollar faced downward pressure as China, a key trading partner of Australia, considered letting its currency, the Chinese Yuan, weaken in response to expected US tariff hikes.
This news added uncertainty, as markets feared the impact of new trade tensions between the US and China.
On Tuesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed confidence in achieving China’s economic targets, stating that China would continue to drive global economic growth. He also warned that there would be no winners in tariff or trade wars.
In terms of economic data, China’s Trade Balance improved in November, reaching CNY 692.8 billion, up from CNY 679.1 billion the previous month.
Exports grew by 1.5% year-over-year, although this was a slowdown compared to October’s 11.2% growth. Imports also rose by 1.2%, recovering from a previous decline of 3.7%.
However, weak consumer price data from China showed a 0.6% drop in November, signaling challenges in the economic recovery and fueling expectations of additional fiscal and monetary stimulus in China.
Back in Australia, the AUD found support from mixed domestic employment data. The seasonally adjusted Employment Change rose by 35,600 in November, bringing the total number of employed people to 14,535,500.
This exceeded both the previous figure of 12,100 and the market’s expectation of 25,000. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.9%, its lowest level since March, well below the expected 4.2%.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the official cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in its December meeting, noting that while inflation risks have eased, they still require attention.
Australia's GDP growth for the third quarter was slower than expected, with a 0.3% rise, leading to speculation that the RBA may cut rates in April 2024.
Therefore, the mixed economic data from Australia, along with concerns over China's economic situation, provided support to the AUD.
However, the uncertainty surrounding US-China trade tensions and weak GDP growth led to downward pressure, limiting significant gains in the AUD/USD pair.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.64180, up 0.77%, reflecting a continuation of its bullish momentum on the 4-hour chart. The pair is supported by a strong pivot point at $0.64153, which serves as a critical level for further upside potential.
Immediate resistance is seen at $0.64719, followed by key levels at $0.65030 and $0.65267. A sustained move above these levels could open the door to further gains, targeting higher levels in the short term.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $0.63773, with additional support levels at $0.63460 and $0.63174 offering a safety net against pullbacks. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.63993 is acting as a strong technical base, reinforcing the current uptrend.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 63, indicating bullish momentum, though nearing overbought territory. This suggests potential for continued gains, albeit with caution as the pair approaches overextension.
Traders may consider entering long positions above $0.64156, with a target at $0.64576 and a stop loss at $0.63941 to manage downside risks.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Resistance Levels: $0.64719, $0.65030, $0.65267.
- Support Levels: $0.63773, $0.63460, $0.63174.
- Technical Indicators: RSI at 63 suggests bullish momentum; 50 EMA at $0.63993 provides strong support.
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.64180, up 0.77%, reflecting a continuation of its bullish momentum on the 4-hour chart. The pair is supported by a strong pivot point at $0.64153, which serves as a critical level for further upside potential.
Immediate resistance is seen at $0.64719, followed by key levels at $0.65030 and $0.65267. A sustained move above these levels could open the door to further gains, targeting higher levels in the short term.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $0.63773, with additional support levels at $0.63460 and $0.63174 offering a safety net against pullbacks. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.63993 is acting as a strong technical base, reinforcing the current uptrend.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 63, indicating bullish momentum, though nearing overbought territory. This suggests potential for continued gains, albeit with caution as the pair approaches overextension.
Traders may consider entering long positions above $0.64156, with a target at $0.64576 and a stop loss at $0.63941 to manage downside risks.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 0.64156
Take Profit – 0.64576
Stop Loss – 0.63941
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$420/ -$215
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$42/ -$21
AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bearish Bias: Trading below $0.64289 with immediate support at $0.63729 and further downside likely.
- Resistance Levels: Key resistance at $0.64719, with additional barriers at $0.65030.
- Momentum Indicators: RSI at 39 reflects bearish momentum; 50 EMA at $0.64259 reinforces downward trend.
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.63942, down 0.70% in the latest session, pressured by a stronger U.S. Dollar and risk-off sentiment in global markets. The price remains below its pivot point of $0.64289, signaling continued bearish momentum.
The 50-day EMA at $0.64259 serves as a key resistance level, aligning closely with the pivot, further restricting any upward attempts. Meanwhile, the RSI at 39 reflects bearish momentum, but it has yet to reach oversold conditions, leaving room for further declines.
Immediate support is located at $0.63729, with stronger levels at $0.63435 and $0.63174 providing additional safety nets.
On the upside, immediate resistance lies at $0.64719, followed by higher hurdles at $0.65030, presenting challenges for any recovery attempts. The bearish sentiment is further reinforced by the descending trendline, which caps upward moves.
The current setup indicates a high probability of further downside pressure unless the price can reclaim the $0.64289 pivot. A break below $0.63729 could open the door to sharper declines, testing $0.63435 and beyond.
Conversely, a close above $0.64289 would challenge the bearish narrative and target $0.64719 as the next key level.
For traders, selling below $0.64040 with targets near $0.63717 remains a favorable strategy, while maintaining stops above $0.64300 to mitigate risk.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 0.64040
Take Profit – 0.63717
Stop Loss – 0.64300
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$323/ -$260
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$32/ -$26
AUD/USD Price Analysis – Dec 10, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD pair continued to struggle, staying under pressure near 0.6394. This drop came after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.35% during its final policy meeting of the year.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock, addressing the media, explained why the central bank held the rate steady at its 12-year high for the ninth straight meeting in December.
On the other side, the US Dollar remained strong, marking its third day of gains. This was driven by cautious market sentiment ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release on Wednesday.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are betting on an 85.8% chance of the Federal Reserve reducing rates by 25 basis points in its December 18 meeting.
On the bright side for the Aussie Dollar, China’s improved economic sentiment provided some relief. Chinese leaders announced plans for proactive fiscal measures and looser monetary policies in 2024 to boost domestic consumption, offering a glimmer of hope for Australia’s trade-reliant economy.
RBA's Steady OCR and China's Economic Stimulus Create Mixed Outlook for AUD/USD
As we mentioned, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to keep its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.35% during its final meeting of the year.
This marks the ninth consecutive meeting at this 12-year high, as Governor Michele Bullock emphasized the need to stay vigilant about inflation risks despite some improvement.
Australia’s economy faces challenges, with GDP growth slowing to 0.3% in the September quarter, missing expectations.
Meanwhile, unemployment remained steady at 4.1% in October, with a modest addition of 15,900 jobs. Inflation eased slightly to 3.5% in the third quarter but remains above the RBA’s 2%-3% target, fueling debates over potential rate cuts next April.
China’s economic developments also influenced the Australian Dollar (AUD). Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed confidence in achieving economic targets, reinforcing China’s role as a global growth driver.
Although China’s trade balance improved to CNY 692.8 billion in November, exports and imports grew at slower rates compared to October.
In the meantime, the weak inflation data (-0.6% in November) highlights challenges but has led to expectations of further stimulus.
Chinese leaders plan to boost domestic consumption in 2024 through fiscal and monetary policies, which has supported AUD sentiment, given Australia’s strong trade ties with China.
Therefore, the RBA's decision to maintain the OCR at 4.35% and China's economic stimulus plans have mixed effects on the AUD/USD pair.
While China's stimulus expectations support the AUD, Australia's economic slowdown and inflation risks keep the pair under pressure, limiting gains.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.63942, down 0.70% in the latest session, pressured by a stronger U.S. Dollar and risk-off sentiment in global markets. The price remains below its pivot point of $0.64289, signaling continued bearish momentum.
The 50-day EMA at $0.64259 serves as a key resistance level, aligning closely with the pivot, further restricting any upward attempts. Meanwhile, the RSI at 39 reflects bearish momentum, but it has yet to reach oversold conditions, leaving room for further declines.
Immediate support is located at $0.63729, with stronger levels at $0.63435 and $0.63174 providing additional safety nets.
On the upside, immediate resistance lies at $0.64719, followed by higher hurdles at $0.65030, presenting challenges for any recovery attempts. The bearish sentiment is further reinforced by the descending trendline, which caps upward moves.
The current setup indicates a high probability of further downside pressure unless the price can reclaim the $0.64289 pivot. A break below $0.63729 could open the door to sharper declines, testing $0.63435 and beyond.
Conversely, a close above $0.64289 would challenge the bearish narrative and target $0.64719 as the next key level.
For traders, selling below $0.64040 with targets near $0.63717 remains a favorable strategy, while maintaining stops above $0.64300 to mitigate risk.
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