AUD/USD Price Analysis – Dec 24, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD pair continued its downward slide, staying under pressure near the 0.6237 level and even hitting an intra-day low of 0.6224.
This drop can largely be attributed to the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Meeting Minutes for its December policy meeting.
The minutes suggested that the RBA might start cutting rates in February, which has weighed on the Australian dollar.
On top of that, trading activity remained light ahead of the Christmas holiday, adding to the subdued market mood.
Meanwhile, the US dollar made a strong comeback after a sharp sell-off, as Federal Reserve officials hinted at fewer rate cuts next year due to a slower-than-expected decline in inflation.
The rebound in the US dollar played a key role in supporting the downward trend of the AUD/USD pair.
RBA’s Cautious Stance and Strong US Dollar Weigh on AUD/USD
On the AUD front, the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Meeting Minutes for December’s policy meeting caused the Australian Dollar to weaken against the US Dollar for the second day in a row.
The minutes revealed that the RBA board is now more confident about inflation compared to earlier meetings but acknowledged ongoing risks.
They stressed the importance of keeping monetary policy tight until there’s more certainty that inflation is under control. Meanwhile, trading activity is expected to remain quiet as markets slow down ahead of the Christmas holiday.
The RBA also mentioned that if upcoming data matches or falls below expectations, it could build confidence in inflation trends and support easing policy. However, stronger-than-expected data may require keeping policy restrictive for a longer period.
Governor Michele Bullock pointed to the strong labor market as a key reason why the RBA has taken a slower approach to monetary easing compared to other countries. This cautious stance reflects the need to balance economic growth while managing inflation effectively.
Therefore, the cautious stance of the RBA and the possibility of prolonged restrictive policies, combined with the US Dollar's strength, has pressured the AUD/USD pair. This led to the Australian Dollar weakening for a second consecutive day, reflecting bearish sentiment.
Mixed US Economic Data and Fed's Cautious Stance Weigh on AUD/USD
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar remained firm as Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers signaled fewer interest rate cuts next year due to slowing disinflation.
However, soft US PCE inflation data eased some concerns, presenting a mixed economic outlook. The core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, rose 2.8% year-over-year, slightly below expectations of 2.9%. Monthly core inflation increased by 0.1%, less than the 0.2% forecast.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets see a 93% chance of the Fed holding interest rates steady in January within the 4.25%–4.50% range. Weak US Durable Goods Orders for November, which fell by 1.1% versus the expected 0.4% drop, further signaled economic challenges.
Meanwhile, US Consumer Confidence declined sharply in December, with the index dropping by 8.1 points to 104.7, reflecting uncertainty about the economy.
Concerns about tariffs and inflationary pressures were highlighted, with households expressing worries over the impact of President-elect Trump’s policies.
Fed officials, including Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, also hinted at a cautious approach to rate changes, emphasizing the need to monitor inflation closely.
These developments underline the mixed sentiment in the US economy, balancing inflation concerns with weakening economic indicators.
Consequently, the mixed economic outlook in the US, with soft inflation data and weaker consumer confidence, may have limited the US Dollar's strength. However, the Fed's cautious stance on interest rate cuts could still support the US Dollar, putting pressure on the AUD/USD pair.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair remains under pressure, trading at $0.62451, a slight decline of 0.03%. The pair is currently hovering near the pivot point of $0.62762, which will play a crucial role in determining the short-term trend.
Immediate resistance is found at $0.63375, with additional resistance levels at $0.63899 and $0.64509. On the downside, immediate support is located at $0.61761, with further critical support at $0.61232 and $0.60746.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $0.62502, closely aligned with the current price, suggesting consolidation in this range. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49 indicates neutral momentum, with no clear bias toward either direction.
A break above the $0.62762 pivot point could see the pair testing higher resistance levels, while a failure to hold above support may trigger further downside movement, with the next support target at $0.61761.
Traders should be cautious as market volatility remains heightened, particularly during the holiday season with reduced liquidity. A sustained break above $0.62762 could shift the bias towards the upside, while a dip below $0.61761 might lead to further declines toward $0.61232.
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