AUD/USD Price Analysis – July 03, 2023

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair is currently at 0.6650 following encouraging data from the US, which caused a 0.5% drop in the price of gold. At the US market close, spot gold was trading around $1,913 per ounce. However, spot silver rose by 0.3% to reach $22.85 per ounce, marking its third consecutive session of gains.

The AUD/USD pair's three-day winning streak faces resistance around the intraday high of approximately 0.6667–70 in Monday's European morning. Despite this, the pair manages to alleviate traders' concerns ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Interest Rate Decision scheduled for Tuesday.

The mixed US PCE Price Index released on Friday boosted investor sentiment and raised doubts about the possibility of a more aggressive monetary policy move by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This benefits the risk-sensitive Australian dollar (AUD). The AUD/USD pair is supported by weak demand for the US dollar (USD) and also receives a boost from slightly better-than-expected Chinese macroeconomic data.

China's Manufacturing PMI for June came in at 50.5, surpassing the forecast of 50.2%, according to official data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). However, this figure is lower than May's reading of 50.9%, raising concerns about a potential slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. Additionally, expectations of future rate hikes by the Fed strengthen the USD and limit the upside potential for the AUD/USD pair.

As the first major US macroeconomic announcement of the week, market participants are now awaiting the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI scheduled for later during the early North American session. Meanwhile, the market's attention will remain focused on the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and the highly anticipated NFP report on Friday.

AUD/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Technical analysis

The AUDUSD pair has tested the important resistance level at 0.6665 and is currently consolidating below it, initiating a decline at today's open.

The technical indicators are displaying clear negativity, indicating a potential resumption of the bearish movement with the next target set at 0.6545.

In light of these observations, we maintain our bearish outlook for the intraday timeframe. It is important to note that a breakthrough above 0.6665 would halt the anticipated decline and potentially trigger a recovery, leading the price to reestablish the main bullish trend.