AUD/USD Price Analysis – Nov 23, 2023

Daily Price Outlook

Despite Australia's data showing a slowdown in economic activities during November, the AUD/USD pair maintained its upward trend and remained well bid around the 0.6570 level. However, the reason for its upward rally could be linked to the bearish US dollar, which is losing momentum amid the sentiment that the Fed may not pursue additional interest rate hikes, with a 50% chance of the US central bank cutting interest rates by May 2024.

Furthermore, the National Australia Bank (NAB) anticipates another RBA rate hike, expecting it to occur at the February 2024 meeting. This expectation is seen as another key factor boosting the AUD/USD pair. Market activity is subdued as traders prepare for the Thanksgiving Day holiday in the US on Thursday.

Australia's Economic Slowdown and RBA's Monetary Policy Outlook Boosts AUD/USD Pair Confidence

According to data released on Thursday, Australia's economic activity in November suggests a slowdown. The preliminary Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.7 from last month's 48.2, and the Services PMI fell to 46.3 from 47.9. These declines contributed to an overall decrease in the Composite PMI, which dropped to 46.4 from 47.6.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock, speaking at the ABE Annual Dinner, addressed the recent monetary policy decision. She pointed out that the inflation challenge is primarily driven by domestic factors, particularly demand. Bullock emphasized that tightening monetary policy is the appropriate course of action to address demand-driven inflation, despite improvements in supply-chain inflation.

Therefore, the news of Australia's economic slowdown, combined with the prospect of an RBA interest rate hike in February 2024, could bolster investor confidence, potentially strengthening the AUD/USD pair.

Mixed US Economic Reports and Potential Monetary Tightening Impact AUD/USD Pair

Furthermore, the US Dollar bounced back on mixed economic reports, but its momentum slowed. Jobless Claims data on Wednesday showed a better-than-expected drop to 209K from 233K. However, Durable Goods Orders took a hit, falling 5.4% in October, which was more than the expected 3.1% decline.

On a positive note, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for November was 61.3, beating the expected 60.5. The FOMC meeting minutes reveal a willingness to tighten monetary policy if necessary for inflation control. FOMC members unanimously agree to maintain a restrictive policy until there is clear evidence of inflation aligning with their target.

Therefore, the mixed US economic reports sparked a rebound in the US Dollar Index, influencing the AUD/USD pair. The potential for a tighter US monetary policy may lead to a stronger USD against the AUD.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The Australian Dollar against the US Dollar (AUD/USD) is trading at 0.65524, showing a modest increase of 0.15%. The pivot point for this pair is at 0.6584. Resistance levels are observed at 0.6658, 0.6777, and 0.6896, which could cap upward movements.

Support levels are at 0.6472, 0.6395, and 0.6276, offering potential support in case of a decline. The RSI for AUD/USD is at 58, indicating a neutral momentum without strong bullish or bearish signals.

The MACD value is -0.00046, with the signal at 0.00143, suggesting a lack of strong directional momentum. The 50 EMA is at 0.6550, almost mirroring the current price, indicating a balanced short-term trend.

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