AUD/USD Price Analysis – Oct 17, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
The AUD/USD currency pair reversed its three-day bearish streak, climbing to an intra-day high of 0.6711. This upward movement followed the release of a robust Australian employment report on Thursday, which revealed a seasonally adjusted Employment Change of 64.1K in September. This figure significantly exceeded market expectations of a 25.0K increase and brought total employment in Australia to a record 14.52 million, following a revised rise of 42.6K in the previous month.
Meanwhile, the US dollar gained strength from solid labor and inflation data, which has tempered expectations for aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Consequently, the bullish outlook for the USD may limit further gains for the AUD/USD pair.
Australian Dollar Strengthens on Employment Report Amid Weak Consumer Confidence
On the AUD front, the Australian Dollar (AUD) ended its three-day losing streak against the US Dollar (USD) after a strong employment report was released. In September, Australia saw a surge of 64.1K in seasonally adjusted Employment Change, bringing total employment to a record 14.52 million. This was well above the market expectation of a 25.0K increase and followed a revised gain of 42.6K in the previous month. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, which was better than the anticipated 4.2%.
Despite these positive employment figures, consumer confidence in Australia showed little improvement. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index remained unchanged at 83.4 this week, continuing a trend of being below 85.0 for 89 consecutive weeks. Although this week’s reading was slightly higher than the 2024 weekly average of 82.1, overall consumer sentiment remains weak.
Looking ahead, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia predicts a 25 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) by the end of 2024. This expectation hinges on a stronger disinflationary trend than the RBA currently anticipates. Meanwhile, in China, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at 0% in September, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped by 2.8% year-on-year, both indicating economic pressures that could influence Australia's economic outlook.
Impact of US Economic Strength on AUD/USD Dynamics
On the US front, the US dollar gained strength from solid labor and inflation data, reducing expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is now a 92.1% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in November, but markets do not expect a larger 50-basis-point reduction. This sentiment reflects a cautious approach to monetary policy.
On Tuesday, Raphael Bostic, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, shared his view that he anticipates only one more interest rate cut of 25 basis points this year. He mentioned that during last month’s central bank meeting, the median forecast indicated a potential for 50 basis points of cuts in addition to the 50 basis points already implemented in September. Bostic's projection aligns with a more measured approach to adjusting rates.
In addition to this, Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, reassured markets by emphasizing the Fed's data-driven strategy. He noted the strength of the US economy and the ongoing easing of inflationary pressures, despite a recent slight increase in the overall unemployment rate. This perspective supports a stable outlook for the dollar as the Fed evaluates future policy moves.
Therefore, the strengthening USD, driven by solid labor data and tempered rate cut expectations, may limit gains for the AUD/USD pair. As the Fed adopts a cautious monetary stance, the Australian Dollar could face downward pressure against the stronger US Dollar.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.66843, up 0.35% for the day, as it hovers below the key pivot point of $0.6704. The immediate resistance at $0.6732 is crucial; a break above this level could lead to further gains toward the next resistance levels of $0.6758 and $0.6781. However, with the price currently below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.6711, there is potential for bearish momentum to reassert itself.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $0.6662, with further support levels at $0.6639 and $0.6617. The RSI is currently at 45, indicating a neutral market sentiment but leaning toward bearish territory as it remains below the midpoint. This suggests that further downward pressure could build if the pair fails to break above the pivot point.
Traders should be cautious of the 50-day EMA as it represents a critical barrier for any bullish attempts. A move below the immediate support at $0.6662 could trigger selling pressure, potentially driving the price toward $0.6639. The pivot point at $0.6704 will be a key indicator for future direction, with selling opportunities emerging below this level.
Given the current technical setup, a short position could be considered if the price remains below $0.6704. Traders could target $0.66603 for profit, while placing a stop-loss at $0.67256 to manage risk in case of a bullish breakout.
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