Daily Price Outlook
The weekly uptrend in EUR/USD seems to have encountered a strong obstacle around the monthly highs near 1.0930 on Friday. The currency pair has given up some ground after four consecutive daily gains at the week's end due to disappointing German economic data and a resurgence of buying interest in the US Dollar.
Meanwhile, expectations of further rate hikes by the ECB, possibly as early as the May event, continue to support the pair's upward momentum, especially against the backdrop of growing speculation that the Federal Reserve might keep rates unchanged at its next meeting.
In the domestic arena, German Retail Sales contracted by 7.1% YoY in February, while the March jobs report indicated a 16K-person increase in Unemployment Change and a rise in the Unemployment Rate to 5.6%.
Later in the session, flash inflation figures for the euro area will take center stage, followed by a speech from ECB Chairwoman Christine Lagarde.
In the US, the focus will be on releasing inflation data as measured by the PCE, along with Personal Income/Spending and the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Pivot Point: 1.0885
EUR/USD – Technical Outlook
The EURUSD pair begins today's trading with a pronounced negative shift, breaking the intraday bullish trend line and moving towards an anticipated decline on an intraday basis.
The initial target is to test the 1.0745 level while keeping an eye on the price as it reaches this level, as breaking it could extend the bearish wave towards the 1.0630 area as the next primary station.
As a result, a bearish inclination is predicted for today, bolstered by the pair currently trading below the EMA50. However, it is important to note that a breach of the 1.0870 level would halt the negative scenario, prompting the price to resume its primary bullish trajectory.
Today's expected trading range lies between 1.0730 support and 1.0875 resistance.
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