Daily Price Outlook
The S&P 500 (SPX) is trading 1.44% higher at 4,109.31. US stocks have managed to record significant gains in the first quarter despite the banking crisis.
S&P 500 Gained in Q1
In the first three months (Q1) of 2023, the S&P 500 climbed by more than 5%. The quarterly growth came despite a significant sell-off in banking stocks due to the failure of two banking institutions earlier this month and fears of a broader financial meltdown.
US stocks were moving higher as key benchmark averages ended the week on a bullish note, supported by easing PCE data. According to data released on Friday, the Fed's favorite inflation measure, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, came in lower than anticipated last month. The index, which excludes food and energy expenses, increased 0.3% in February, versus a 0.4% increase expected by Dow Jones economists.
The signs of easing inflation raise confidence that the Federal Reserve will soon halt raising interest rates aggressively. As a result, market pricing for the forthcoming Fed meeting on May 3 implies a 42% possibility that the central bank will hit the pause button and keep rates unchanged.
Furthermore, based on current market pricing, a 50 bp reduction by year's end is possible. The expectations of the Fed's easing of its aggressive attitude improved market sentiments, and the S&P 500 increased.
Looking ahead as we enter the first week of April, the next US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be released during the early hours of US trade on Monday. For more information on the PMI, you can visit the official website of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) at www.ismworld.org.
Most Active Stocks
The most active S&P 500 Index stocks today are Tesla, Apple, Ford Motor, Intel, and Amazon.com, all of which are seeing gains. Tesla Inc. has increased by 6.42% following its report of record quarterly deliveries after implementing price cuts.
Although the company reported record quarterly vehicle deliveries on Sunday, sales growth quarter-over-quarter was modest despite price cuts and increased competition. Ford Motor Corporation (F) is up 2.52%, and Apple has gained 1.56%.
Intel (INTC), which is up 1.81%, has assured Wall Street that its roadmap for data center processors is on track. The chip manufacturer claims to be active in the rapidly expanding artificial intelligence business. The shares of Intel increased as a result of the news.
S&P500 Intraday Technical Levels
Pivot Point: 4047
S&P500 – Technical Outlook
On Monday, the S&P 500 is trading with a pronounced bullish momentum above 4,100, with a firm support level at 4,030. However, substantial resistance may be encountered due to the double-top pattern at 4,175.
If the index surpasses this level, the SPX price could be driven towards the next resistance level of 4,170. On the other hand, if the SPX drops below 4,040, it might face intense selling pressure and potentially decline to the 3,920 and 3,840 levels.
Technical indicators, such as MACD and RSI, are both in the buying zone, indicating a strong bullish tendency. Investors are likely to focus on the 4,040 level, and if the candle closes above it, the SPX price may see an upward trend today.
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