EUR/USD Price Analysis – Dec 04, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During European trading on Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair is slightly down but holding steady around 1.0511. However, the currency pair is mostly moving sideways as traders await a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Michel Barnier, led by French far-right and left-wing parties.
This vote has raised concerns about political instability in France, which could weigh on the Euro (EUR) if the government collapses.
On the other hand, the US Dollar is also seeing a slight dip, providing the EUR/USD pair with some support. However, the outlook for the Euro is uncertain, as European Central Bank (ECB) officials hint at possible interest rate cuts. Traders expect a rate cut at the ECB’s meeting on December 12.
US Economic Data and Federal Reserve Outlook Impact Dollar Strength
On the US front, investors are closely watching the upcoming economic data, including the ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services PMI for November.
Economists predict that the US private sector added 150,000 jobs in November, a significant drop from 233,000 in October.
The Services PMI, which measures activity in the services sector, is expected to decline slightly to 55.5 from 56.0, indicating slower growth in this sector.
These data points will influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on December 18.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there's a 74% chance the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points, bringing them to 4.25%-4.50%, and a 26% chance that rates will remain unchanged.
Investors will also be paying attention to the Fed’s Beige Book and comments from Chairman Jerome Powell for more clues on future rate actions.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar is showing a muted trend ahead of the economic releases. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is fluctuating around 106.30.
The outlook for the Dollar remains generally positive, especially after US President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on BRICS countries, a move that could further strengthen the Dollar's dominance.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading at $1.05132, up 0.08%, as it consolidates above its immediate support at $1.04622. The pair remains below its pivot point of $1.05655, signaling a cautious tone amid mixed market sentiment.
Immediate resistance lies at $1.05973, with further levels at $1.06321, while on the downside, support is seen at $1.04255, followed by $1.03930.
The RSI at 49 indicates neutral momentum, suggesting that the pair lacks a clear directional bias. The 50-day EMA at $1.05290 acts as a key resistance level, aligning with the broader downward trend.
A sustained break below $1.05280 could confirm bearish momentum, targeting $1.04622 or lower. Conversely, a recovery above $1.05655 would shift the focus toward higher resistance levels.
Technical indicators suggest that traders remain cautious, with the pair trading near pivotal levels. Entry points below $1.05280 provide an opportunity for bearish plays, with a target of $1.04622 and a stop-loss at $1.05667.
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