Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Price Analysis – July 12, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 12, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend and gained further ground around the 1.0890 level, reaching an intraday high of 1.0892. The rally can be attributed to a weaker US dollar, which lost ground following softer-than-expected US consumer inflation figures released previously.

This has raised expectations that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates in September, putting pressure on the US dollar and contributing to gains in the EUR/USD pair.

Additionally, diminished expectations for ECB rate cuts, influenced by stable price pressures throughout the year and a cautious stance from policymakers, have also supported the EUR/USD pair.

Impact of US Inflation Data and Fed Rate Cut Expectations on the EUR/USD Pair

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar weakened today due to softer-than-expected US consumer inflation figures released earlier. This has heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates in September.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is now certainty about a rate cut in September, with potential for another cut in either November or December.

The latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, released Thursday, showed a resumption of disinflation after a brief pause in the first quarter of the year, prompting these expectations for Fed action.

On the data front, annual core inflation, which Fed officials closely monitor (excluding volatile food and energy prices), unexpectedly slowed to 3.3%, below economists' expectations of 3.4%.

Headline inflation also dipped to 3.0%, its lowest in a year, driven by lower energy costs and rental prices. Monthly headline inflation declined by 0.1% after holding steady in May.

These cooling inflationary pressures, alongside softer labor market conditions, have boosted Fed confidence in reaching their 2% inflation target. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly welcomed the slowdown, supporting the case for lower interest rates, though the timing of rate cuts remains debated.

Therefore, the weakening US dollar following softer inflation data and expected Fed rate cuts may strengthen the EUR/USD pair. Lower interest rate expectations in the US compared to stable or potentially higher rates in the Eurozone could support the euro against the dollar.

Impact on EUR/USD Pair Amid Reduced ECB Rate Cut Expectations

On the EUR front, the expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) to lower interest rates have cooled. This shift comes as ECB officials believe that inflation pressures will stay steady throughout the year.

They're cautious about slashing rates too quickly, fearing it could spark higher inflation once more. Instead of committing to a fixed plan for rate cuts, they're taking a wait-and-see approach. This means they're monitoring economic conditions closely before deciding on any aggressive moves to stimulate the economy through lower interest rates.

Therefore, the reduced expectations for ECB rate cuts typically strengthen the euro (EUR), potentially boosting the EUR/USD pair as investors perceive less economic stimulus and stable inflation in the Eurozone.

EUR/USD  Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD  Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair is holding steady, hovering just below the pivot point of $1.0887. Despite a marginal dip of 0.01%, the pair remains within striking distance of this key level, suggesting the potential for a breakout in either direction.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $1.0834, providing a solid foundation of support should the pair experience a pullback.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently reads 64, indicating that the pair is neither overbought nor oversold. This neutral reading suggests that the pair could consolidate around current levels before making a decisive move.

Traders should closely monitor the price action around the pivot point, as a break above this level could signal further upside momentum, potentially targeting the $1.0900 resistance level.

However, a failure to breach the pivot point could see the pair retreat towards the immediate support at $1.0843. A decisive break below this level could trigger further downside pressure, potentially pushing the pair towards the $1.0823 support level.

Given the current consolidation, traders should exercise caution and wait for a clear breakout before initiating new positions.

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EUR/USD

Daily Trade Ideas

EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 12, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

- Pivot Point: $1.0887 is the key level to watch. A break above could trigger further upside.

- 50 EMA: $1.0834 is a significant support level. A break below could signal a change in trend.

- RSI: Currently at 64, indicating a neutral market. A move above 70 or below 30 could signal a potential trend reversal.

The EUR/USD pair is holding steady, hovering just below the pivot point of $1.0887. Despite a marginal dip of 0.01%, the pair remains within striking distance of this key level, suggesting the potential for a breakout in either direction.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $1.0834, providing a solid foundation of support should the pair experience a pullback.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently reads 64, indicating that the pair is neither overbought nor oversold. This neutral reading suggests that the pair could consolidate around current levels before making a decisive move.

Traders should closely monitor the price action around the pivot point, as a break above this level could signal further upside momentum, potentially targeting the $1.0900 resistance level.

However, a failure to breach the pivot point could see the pair retreat towards the immediate support at $1.0843.

A decisive break below this level could trigger further downside pressure, potentially pushing the pair towards the $1.0823 support level. Given the current consolidation, traders should exercise caution and wait for a clear breakout before initiating new positions.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.08603

Take Profit – 1.08872

Stop Loss – 1.08430

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$269/ -$173

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$26/ -$17

EUR/USD

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Price Analysis – July 10, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 10, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair has shown strength in recent sessions, maintaining gains above the 1.0821 and reaching an intra-day high of 1.0826. However, the reason for its upward trend can be linked to the cautious stance of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which has weighed on the US Dollar.

Simultaneously, positive political developments in Europe, including the defeat of Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally in the French elections, have bolstered the Euro. This outcome signals political stability, easing fears and supporting the Eurozone economically.

Impact of Powell's Cautious Remarks on US Dollar and Euro Strength

Jerome Powell's recent comments about the US labor market have had a significant impact on the US Dollar's performance against major currencies like the Euro. He pointed out a noticeable slowdown in current labor market conditions compared to previous years, indicating a deceleration in economic momentum.

This cautious assessment implies that the Federal Reserve might postpone or adopt a more restrained approach to interest rate cuts, diverging from earlier market anticipations of aggressive monetary easing.

Following Powell's remarks, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback's strength against major currencies, encountered selling pressure. Investors perceived Powell's comments as indicating that the Fed might hold off on rate cuts unless there's clear evidence of easing inflationary pressures.

Hence, Jerome Powell's cautious remarks on the US labor market led to selling pressure on the US Dollar, impacting the EUR/USD pair. The Euro strengthened as investors anticipated a more restrained approach to rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Political Stability in France Boosts Euro Against US Dollar

On the other side, the shared currency has also found support from domestic political developments within the Eurozone, particularly in France. The failure of Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally to secure an absolute majority in the French elections has eased concerns about a potential widening of the French financial crisis.

Despite leading in the initial round, the party’s inability to form a majority government has reduced fears of political instability that could have impacted the Euro's value negatively.

Investors welcomed the outcome as it signaled a probable coalition government between President Emmanuel Macron's centrist alliance and the left wing, led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon. This political configuration is viewed favorably by markets due to expectations of continued policy stability and fiscal responsibility.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The Euro (EUR) has displayed limited movement against the US Dollar (USD) in the latest session, currently trading at $1.08156. This price action comes amid a cautious market environment, with traders eyeing the pivot point at $1.08186, which coincides with the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

This level serves as a crucial juncture, indicating potential support or resistance depending on the directional movement.

Immediate resistance for the EUR/USD pair is noted at $1.08307, with additional resistance levels at $1.08332 and $1.08453.

These levels represent significant barriers for any upward momentum. On the support side, immediate support is found at $1.08181, with subsequent support levels at $1.07990 and $1.07993, providing a safety net against downward pressure.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 46.96, suggesting a slightly bearish sentiment as it lies below the neutral 50 mark. This indicates that the pair might face selling pressure in the near term.

The 50 EMA at $1.08186 acts as a critical support level, and a breach below this could trigger further downside movement.

Traders should consider entering a sell position below $1.08177, targeting a take profit at $1.07990 with a stop loss set at $1.08307.

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Daily Trade Ideas

EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 10, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

- EUR/USD is trading at $1.08156, showing limited movement within a cautious market environment.

- Key pivot at $1.08186 aligns with the 50 EMA, indicating crucial support.

- Recommended sell below $1.08177, targeting $1.07990 with a stop loss at $1.08307.

The Euro (EUR) has displayed limited movement against the US Dollar (USD) in the latest session, currently trading at $1.08156. This price action comes amid a cautious market environment, with traders eyeing the pivot point at $1.08186, which coincides with the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

This level serves as a crucial juncture, indicating potential support or resistance depending on the directional movement.

Immediate resistance for the EUR/USD pair is noted at $1.08307, with additional resistance levels at $1.08332 and $1.08453.

These levels represent significant barriers for any upward momentum. On the support side, immediate support is found at $1.08181, with subsequent support levels at $1.07990 and $1.07993, providing a safety net against downward pressure.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 46.96, suggesting a slightly bearish sentiment as it lies below the neutral 50 mark. This indicates that the pair might face selling pressure in the near term. The 50 EMA at $1.08186 acts as a critical support level, and a breach below this could trigger further downside movement.

Traders should consider entering a sell position below $1.08177, targeting a take profit at $1.07990 with a stop loss set at $1.08307.

EUR/USD price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.08177

Take Profit – 1.07990

Stop Loss – 1.08307

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$187/ -$130

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$18/ -$13

EUR/USD

Daily Trade Ideas

EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 8, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

- EUR/USD remains in bullish territory with RSI at 63, indicating room for further gains.

- Key resistance levels at $1.0839, $1.0854, and $1.0872 to watch for potential breakout.

- Support levels at $1.0795, $1.0779, and $1.0763 critical for downside risk management.

The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at $1.08365, reflecting a modest increase of 0.15%. The 4-hour chart reveals critical technical levels and indicators that traders should monitor. The pivot point is set at $1.0816, marking a crucial threshold for potential bullish or bearish movements.

Immediate resistance levels are identified at $1.0839, $1.0854, and $1.0872. A break above these levels could signal further upward momentum for the pair. Conversely, support levels are found at $1.0795, $1.0779, and $1.0763. A drop below these support points could trigger a significant selling trend.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 63, suggesting that the EUR/USD pair is in bullish territory but not yet overbought. Typically, an RSI level below 70 indicates room for further gains before potential overvaluation concerns arise.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $1.0790, reinforcing the bullish trend as long as the price remains above this average. The EMA acts as dynamic support, and maintaining a price above this level supports the ongoing bullish sentiment.

Given the current market setup, an effective strategy would be to enter a buy position above $1.08294. Setting a take-profit target at $1.08540 aligns with immediate resistance levels, providing a favorable risk-reward ratio while capturing potential gains. A stop-loss at $1.08138, just below the pivot point, helps limit downside risk from unexpected market movements.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.08294

Take Profit – 1.08540

Stop Loss – 1.08138

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$246/ -$156

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$24/ -$15

EUR/USD

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Price Analysis – July 08, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 8, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the EUR/USD pair extended its upward movement, reaching an intraday peak near 1.0843.

This rise was fueled by a weakening US dollar, which has been under pressure amid mounting speculation about potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Recent poor US economic indicators have heightened expectations that the Fed could start rate reductions as soon as September, with further cuts possibly following in December.

However, the upward momentum of the EUR/USD pair may face resistance due to uncertainties surrounding the outcome of France's election. Jean-Luc Mélenchon's unexpectedly strong showing for his left-wing party could potentially impact Eurozone policies and economic stability, tempering the euro's gains.

Impact of Weaker US Economic Data and Expected Fed Rate Cuts on EUR/USD Pair

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has continued its decline as markets increasingly anticipate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, with potential further cuts in December.

This shift in expectations follows recent weaker US economic data. On the data front, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for June revealed a slowdown in hiring, with revised figures showing 110,000 fewer jobs added in April and May than initially reported.

Additionally, the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1%, up from the anticipated and previous 4.0%.

Therefore, the weaker US economic data and expected Fed rate cuts have weakened the US dollar, impacting the EUR/USD pair positively as the euro strengthens against the dollar amid decreased rate hike expectations.

Impact of French Political Uncertainty and ECB Policy on EUR/USD Pair

Despite uncertainties in French politics, the euro has been performing well. Exit polls indicate that Jean-Luc Mélenchon's left-wing New Popular Front might create a coalition government, potentially ahead of Macron's centrist group and Le Pen's National Rally.

Since no single party has a clear majority, there are ongoing discussions about which individuals will fill government positions and who will become the next Prime Minister. Mélenchon has even suggested that Macron should resign to allow the left-wing coalition to take control of economic policies.

Meanwhile, concerns about high inflation have reduced hopes that the European Central Bank will lower interest rates soon. In June, inflation in the Eurozone stayed high at 2.9% compared to last year, mainly due to higher costs for services.

ECB President Lagarde emphasized the need to stay cautious, especially with ongoing pressures that could lower inflation, at the Sintra Forum.

Therefore, the uncertainty in French politics and concerns over inflation have kept the EUR/USD pair stable, with potential coalition outcomes influencing market sentiment while inflation worries affect ECB rate cut expectations.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at $1.08365, reflecting a modest increase of 0.15%. The 4-hour chart reveals critical technical levels and indicators that traders should monitor. The pivot point is set at $1.0816, marking a crucial threshold for potential bullish or bearish movements.

Immediate resistance levels are identified at $1.0839, $1.0854, and $1.0872. A break above these levels could signal further upward momentum for the pair. Conversely, support levels are found at $1.0795, $1.0779, and $1.0763. A drop below these support points could trigger a significant selling trend.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 63, suggesting that the EUR/USD pair is in bullish territory but not yet overbought. Typically, an RSI level below 70 indicates room for further gains before potential overvaluation concerns arise.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $1.0790, reinforcing the bullish trend as long as the price remains above this average. The EMA acts as dynamic support, and maintaining a price above this level supports the ongoing bullish sentiment.

Given the current market setup, an effective strategy would be to enter a buy position above $1.08294. Setting a take-profit target at $1.08540 aligns with immediate resistance levels, providing a favorable risk-reward ratio while capturing potential gains. A stop-loss at $1.08138, just below the pivot point, helps limit downside risk from unexpected market movements.

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Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Price Analysis – July 05, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 5, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its ascent, reaching a three-week high near the 1.0830 level. This upward movement was largely driven by weakness in the US dollar, which has been losing ground amidst growing speculation of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Recent lackluster US economic data has fueled expectations that the Fed might slash rates as early as September, with further cuts possibly in December. As a result, the USD has declined for the fourth consecutive day, hitting a three-week low and boosting gold prices in the process.

Conversely, the Euro has seen increased demand amid political developments in France. Speculation that Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally might not secure a majority in the legislative elections has bolstered the Euro's appeal.

This scenario unfolded as a coalition supporting President Emmanuel Macron strategically withdrew candidates, potentially preventing a far-right sweep.

Furthermore, expectations for imminent rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) on July 18 have tempered, as recent data suggests that disinflation in the Eurozone may be stabilizing. This factor has also supported the EUR/USD pair's upward trajectory.

Impact of US Dollar Decline, Interest Rate Expectations, and Nonfarm Payrolls Report on Gold Prices and Federal Reserve Policy

Impact of Weakening US Dollar and Key US Economic Data on the EUR/USD Pair

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has continued its decline as markets increasingly anticipate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, with potential further cuts in December.

This shift in expectations follows recent weaker US economic data, prompting the US Dollar (USD) to extend its decline for the fourth consecutive day, reaching its lowest level in over three weeks. This trend has significantly bolstered gold prices, underscoring their appeal amid the weakening dollar environment.

On the economic front, the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls report is scheduled for release later today during the North American session. Analysts project that the report will indicate the US economy added 190,000 jobs in June, marking a decrease from the previous month's 272,000.

The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4%, signaling stability in the labor market. However, there might be a slight slowdown in Average Hourly Earnings growth, with anticipated annual growth of 3.9%, down from May's 4.1% increase. These numbers are closely monitored as they offer critical insig

Therefore, the weakening US dollar amid anticipated Fed rate cuts has bolstered the EUR/USD pair, pushing it to a three-week high. Key US jobs data, including Nonfarm Payrolls and wage growth, will further influence its direction today.

Impact of French Political Developments and Eurozone Inflation Trends on the EUR/USD Pair

On the EUR front, the Euro is gaining support amidst expectations that Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally may not secure an outright majority in France's legislative elections, thanks to tactical candidate withdrawals by President Macron's alliance and the left.

Meanwhile, the speculation about the European Central Bank (ECB) cutting rates further on July 18 has waned due to signs that inflation in the Eurozone, excluding volatile items, held steady with a 2.9% year-on-year increase in June, suggesting a pause in disinflationary trends.

These developments are likely bolstering the Euro against the US Dollar, as reduced political uncertainty in France and stabilizing inflation expectations lessen the urgency for ECB rate cuts, supporting the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.08282, marking a modest increase of 0.08% in early trading. On the 4-hour chart, several key technical levels could shape the pair's short-term direction. The pivot point at $1.0816 serves as a crucial marker for potential bullish or bearish movements.

Immediate resistance is seen at $1.0839, followed by $1.0854 and $1.0872. A break above these levels could signal further upside momentum, potentially pushing the pair towards higher resistance zones. Conversely, immediate support is located at $1.0795, with further supports at $1.0779 and $1.0763, which could provide buying opportunities if the price pulls back.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 73, indicating that the EUR/USD is approaching overbought conditions. Typically, an RSI at this level suggests that the asset may be overvalued, which could precede a price correction. Therefore, traders should be cautious and watch for any signs of a bearish reversal.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.0769, reinforcing the bullish trend as long as the price remains above this average. The EMA acts as dynamic support, and maintaining a price above this level supports the ongoing bullish sentiment.

Given the current market setup, an effective strategy would be to enter a buy position above $1.08166. Setting a take-profit target at $1.08443 aligns with immediate resistance levels, ensuring a favorable risk-reward ratio while capturing potential gains. A stop-loss at $1.08013, just below the pivot point, helps limit downside risk from unexpected market movements.

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Daily Trade Ideas

EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 5, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

- EUR/USD trading at $1.08282, up 0.08%; pivot point at $1.0816 is crucial.

- RSI at 73 indicates potential overbought conditions, signaling possible correction.

- Immediate resistance at $1.0839; support levels at $1.0795 and $1.0779 offer buying opportunities.

The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.08282, marking a modest increase of 0.08% in early trading. On the 4-hour chart, several key technical levels could shape the pair's short-term direction. The pivot point at $1.0816 serves as a crucial marker for potential bullish or bearish movements.

Immediate resistance is seen at $1.0839, followed by $1.0854 and $1.0872. A break above these levels could signal further upside momentum, potentially pushing the pair towards higher resistance zones.

Conversely, immediate support is located at $1.0795, with further supports at $1.0779 and $1.0763, which could provide buying opportunities if the price pulls back.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 73, indicating that the EUR/USD is approaching overbought conditions.

Typically, an RSI at this level suggests that the asset may be overvalued, which could precede a price correction. Therefore, traders should be cautious and watch for any signs of a bearish reversal.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.0769, reinforcing the bullish trend as long as the price remains above this average. The EMA acts as dynamic support, and maintaining a price above this level supports the ongoing bullish sentiment.

Given the current market setup, an effective strategy would be to enter a buy position above $1.08166. Setting a take-profit target at $1.08443 aligns with immediate resistance levels, ensuring a favorable risk-reward ratio while capturing potential gains.

A stop-loss at $1.08013, just below the pivot point, helps limit downside risk from unexpected market movements.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.08166

Take Profit – 1.08443

Stop Loss – 1.08013

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$277/ -$153

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$27/ -$15

EUR/USD

Daily Trade Ideas

EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 3, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

- EUR/USD is trading at $1.07576, up 0.11% on the day, indicating modest strength.

- Key resistance levels are $1.0794, $1.0817, and $1.0845, with immediate support at $1.0726.

- RSI is at 60, suggesting room for further gains, while the 50 EMA at $1.07160 acts as a significant support level.

The EUR/USD pair is showing signs of modest strength, trading at $1.07576, a 0.11% increase on the day. This movement is underpinned by a bullish sentiment as the pair inches closer to its pivot point at $1.0793.

The immediate resistance level stands at $1.0794, followed by further resistance at $1.0817 and $1.0845. On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.0726, with subsequent supports at $1.0693 and $1.0668. These levels are crucial as they indicate potential areas of consolidation or reversal.

Technical indicators paint a supportive picture for the euro. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 60, suggesting the pair has room to advance further before approaching overbought conditions.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (50 EMA) at $1.07160 serves as a significant support level, reinforcing the bullish bias as long as the price remains above this moving average. This alignment of technical factors suggests a favorable environment for further gains, provided key resistance levels are breached.

The EUR/USD's recent price action reflects a broader sentiment of cautious optimism among investors.

As economic data and central bank communications continue to shape market expectations, the pair's ability to sustain above its pivot point and 50 EMA will be closely watched. The RSI near 60 implies a balanced outlook, with the potential for further upside if resistance levels are surpassed

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.07529

Take Profit – 1.07927

Stop Loss – 1.07266

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$398/ -$263

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$39/ -$26

EUR/USD

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Price Analysis – July 03, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 3, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its mild bullish trend and remained well bid around the 1.0761 level, hitting an intraday high of 1.0764.

The mild upward trend was attributed to renewed selling pressure in the US dollar, which lost some of its gains on the back of mounting expectations of upcoming rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in both September and December. These expectations were bolstered by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent dovish remarks.

Impact of Eurozone Inflation and ECB Policy Uncertainty on EUR/USD Pair

On the EUR front, Eurozone headline inflation eased to 2.5% in June from 2.6% in May, while core inflation held steady at 2.9%, slightly above expectations of 2.8%. These figures indicate ongoing uncertainty over future price trends, complicating the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate stance.

ECB President Christine Lagarde noted positive inflation trends at the ECB Forum on Central Banking, suggesting progress in disinflation efforts.

Meanwhile, ECB policymaker Gabriel Makhlouf supports one potential rate cut this year but disagrees with market expectations for two cuts, leaving room for further monetary policy uncertainty. In political news, EU's second-largest nation saw strategic candidate withdrawals ahead of parliamentary elections aimed at countering far-right gains.

Therefore, the mixed inflation data and ECB's uncertain rate outlook could lead to volatility for the EUR/USD pair, influenced by market perceptions of Eurozone economic stability and ECB policy direction amid political developments in the EU.

Impact of Weakening US Dollar and Fed Expectations on EUR/USD Pair

On the US front, the weakening US dollar, despite strong labor market data exceeding forecasts, has heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. This economic resilience suggests a potential easing of monetary policy.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, while noting progress in inflation, remains cautious, emphasizing the need for sustained inflation trends toward the 2% target before considering rate adjustments. Additionally, JOLT job openings unexpectedly rose, indicating a robust labor market that could boost consumer spending and inflation concerns.

These dynamics create a complex backdrop for the EUR/USD pair, potentially supporting its strength against a softer dollar.

Therefore, the weakening US dollar amid anticipated Fed rate cuts could bolster the EUR/USD pair, supported by market expectations of softer monetary policy in the US and potential economic resilience in the Eurozone.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair is showing signs of modest strength, trading at $1.07576, a 0.11% increase on the day. This movement is underpinned by a bullish sentiment as the pair inches closer to its pivot point at $1.0793.

The immediate resistance level stands at $1.0794, followed by further resistance at $1.0817 and $1.0845. On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.0726, with subsequent supports at $1.0693 and $1.0668. These levels are crucial as they indicate potential areas of consolidation or reversal.

Technical indicators paint a supportive picture for the euro. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 60, suggesting the pair has room to advance further before approaching overbought conditions.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (50 EMA) at $1.07160 serves as a significant support level, reinforcing the bullish bias as long as the price remains above this moving average. This alignment of technical factors suggests a favorable environment for further gains, provided key resistance levels are breached.

The EUR/USD's recent price action reflects a broader sentiment of cautious optimism among investors.

As economic data and central bank communications continue to shape market expectations, the pair's ability to sustain above its pivot point and 50 EMA will be closely watched. The RSI near 60 implies a balanced outlook, with the potential for further upside if resistance levels are surpassed

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EUR/USD