EUR/USD Price Analysis – July 21, 2023

Daily Price Outlook

Currently, the intraday bias for EUR/USD remains neutral, but there is an expectation of a further rally. If the price breaks above 1.1011, it will resume the upward movement that started from 1.0634, with 1.1094 as the target resistance level.

EUR/USD Forecast: Corrective Decline in Progress

At the beginning of the day, the EUR/USD pair once again surpassed the 1.1200 level, but the increase was limited due to a deteriorating market sentiment. The pair reached a peak of 1.1228 before retracing to its current level around 1.1180.

The Asian trading session was marked by a bearish tone, driven by tensions between China and the US over the major Asian semiconductor sector and disappointing earnings announcements from companies like Tesla and Netflix.

US indexes lost momentum after a positive close, and Wall Street futures were trading negatively before the opening.

EUR/USD Price Analysis: Euro Approaches Support-Turned-Resistance at 1.1150 Ahead of ECB and Fed Verdicts

As market participants seek clear directions ahead of next week's monetary policy meetings of the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve (Fed), the EUR/USD pair reflects the impact of the first negative week in four and is currently holding modest gains between 1.1130 and 1.1140 in early Friday morning trading in Europe.

The Euro pair's performance is influenced by the need for significant data or events and conflicting concerns about the different central banks, which is creating uncertainty among traders.

In economic data, the US weekly jobless claims report showed a decrease to 228K, the lowest level since mid-May, surpassing market expectations of 242K. However, Existing Home Sales fell short of expectations, declining from 4.3 million to 4.16 million (annual rate) in a separate report.

On the other hand, Eurozone Consumer Confidence improved more than anticipated, rising from -16.0 to -15.1, according to the flash calculation for July.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

EUR/USD experienced a bearish sentiment in yesterday's session, leading it to settle near the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the last bullish wave.

The pair also moved below the EMA50, creating negative pressure that could result in further bearish correction.

However, there are positive signals from the stochastic indicator that may support a return to the main bullish trend.

The conflicting signals from the technical indicators prompt us to adopt a cautious stance and wait for clearer signals to determine the next trend.

It's important to note that breaching the support level at 1.1105 could lead to additional downside targets at 1.1055 and 1.1000.

Conversely, breaking the resistance at 1.1170 would signal a potential continuation of the main bullish trend, targeting 1.1275 and 1.1418 as the next main objectives.

Expected trading range for today: 1.1050 (support) to 1.1230 (resistance).