EUR/USD Price Analysis – July 31, 2023

Daily Price Outlook

During the early Asian session on Monday, the EUR/USD pair experienced some buying interest, leading to a slight positive movement near 1.1025. This recovery comes after two weeks of losses and was supported by softer US data, as well as recent remarks from ECB officials and Federal Reserve policymakers.

ECB President Christine Lagarde referred to the recent economic output figures from France, Germany, and Spain as "quite optimistic" in an interview with French newspaper Le Figaro over the weekend.

Joachim Nagel, president of the Bundesbank of Germany and an ECB Governing Council member, also supported hawkish ECB policies, citing persistent core inflation and advocating for higher interest rates to be maintained for a longer period.

Conversely, Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, expressed concerns about job losses and weaker growth, while acknowledging the inflation forecast. He also questioned the central bank's aggressive monetary tightening program to control price increases.

News reports suggesting further Chinese stimulus are putting pressure on the US Dollar, allowing the EUR/USD pair to recover from a three-week low on Friday, despite recent losses.

The US Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, showed weaker-than-expected readings for June, easing to 4.1% YoY, below the predicted 4.2% and the previous 4.6%.

Additionally, Personal Income decreased to 0.3%, falling short of the expected 0.5% and previous readings, while Personal Spending increased by 0.5%, surpassing market expectations of 0.4% and the earlier 0.1%. Moreover, the final readings of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July declined from the initial estimate of 72.6 to 71.6, and the University of Michigan's (UoM) 5-year Consumer Inflation expectations also decreased from 3.1% to 3.0%.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair has approached a significant resistance level at 1.1055 and is now experiencing a gradual decline, moving closer to the main bullish channel's support line. Notably, the price remains below the neckline of a double top pattern, which is visible on the chart.

Additionally, the EMA50 is exerting downward pressure on the price, and the stochastic indicator is currently showing negative overlap.

Considering these factors, it is prudent to adopt a bearish bias for the upcoming sessions. The initial targets for the bearish scenario involve breaking below the bullish channel's support line, potentially leading to further declines towards 1.0935 and 1.0835 levels upon surpassing the previous level of support.

However, a breach of the key resistance level at 1.1055 would invalidate the bearish scenario and signal a potential resumption of the main bullish trend, with potential targets around the 1.1170 areas initially.

For today's trading, the projected range is expected to lie between the support level at 1.0920 and the resistance level at 1.1070.