EUR/USD Price Analysis – Sep 13, 2023

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the European Central Bank (ECB) expects inflation in the Eurozone to remain over 3% next year, supporting another rate hike on Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to stop its downward rally and dropped around 1.0735, down 0.14% on the day. However, the reason for its downward rally can be attributed to multiple factors including the bullish US dollar and weaker-than-expected German industrial figures. In the meantime, the upside of EUR/USD might be limited as market players prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday.

Eurozone Industrial Production Declines in July, Raising Concerns of Manufacturing Slowdown

According to official data, the Eurozone's industrial production experienced a larger decline than expected in July. This suggests that the manufacturing sector's recovery is slowing down. Industrial output fell by 1.1% in July compared to the previous month, worse than the anticipated decrease of 0.7%, and in contrast to a 0.4% increase seen in June. On an annual basis, industrial production declined by 2.2% in July, compared to a 1.1% decrease in June, well below the expected 0.3% drop. Despite these disappointing numbers, the Euro (EUR) remained relatively steady against the US Dollar (USD), trading at about 1.0735, showing only a 0.14% decrease for the day.

ECB's Inflation Expectations and Potential Impact on Interest Rates

Furthermore, the European Central Bank (ECB) expects inflation in the Eurozone to stay above 3% next year. This raises the probability of the ECB raising interest rates for the tenth time in a row at its upcoming meeting on Thursday. Notably, the market has had mixed predictions about the ECB's interest rate decision, with around 40% of investors expecting a rate hike this week. If the unconfirmed ECB information is accurate, it could lead to another rate increase announcement. Therefore, this potential move might strengthen the Euro against the US Dollar (USD) and provide some support for the EUR/USD currency pair to limit its deeper losses.

US Dollar Strengthens on Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook

On the US front, the overall value of the US dollar has been going up and down recently, but it's currently on an upward trend. However, the reason for this is that many people believe the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, will continue with its tough stance on interest rates. This stance is making US Treasury bond yields go up, which is good for the dollar. In the meantime, the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates higher for a while and predict one more 0.25% increase before the year is over. This confidence in the Fed's plan is making the dollar more appealing and pushing the EUR/USD currency pair down. (edited)

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair concluded the previous session on a notably positive note, probing the resistance of the evident bearish channel showcased on the analytical chart. Notably, it has sustained below this resistance, commencing today with a bearish inclination, suggesting a potential continuation of the prevailing downtrend. The subsequent primary objective is set at 1.0635.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) aligns with the aforementioned resistance, amplifying its robustness. Concurrently, the stochastic oscillator displays a clear wane in its positive momentum, reinforcing the prognosis for a decline in upcoming sessions.

Given these dynamics, the bearish trajectory is anticipated in both intraday and short-term scenarios, unless there's a breach beyond 1.0785 that remains sustained. Today's trading spectrum is projected to span from a support at 1.0660 to a resistance ceiling of 1.0810.