EUR/USD Price Analysis – Sep 23, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD extended its downward trend, dropping to the 1.1111 level and hitting an intra-day low of 1.1083. This decline was primarily driven by disappointing German economic data, which weighed heavily on the pair.
The downturn in Germany’s manufacturing sector worsened in September, while services sector activity also suffered, as highlighted by the preliminary HCOB business activity report.
Moreover, the European Central Bank’s cautious approach to monetary policy and uncertainty about the eurozone’s economic outlook further dampened investor confidence.
In the meantime, the renewed mild strength in the US dollar ahead of US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) also played a major role in pushing the EUR/USD pair lower.
Economic Challenges in Germany and Their Impact on the EUR/USD Pair
On the EUR front, Germany's manufacturing sector is facing significant challenges, with a downturn worsening in September.
The HCOB Manufacturing PMI fell to 40.3 this month, down from 42.4 in August and below the expected 42.4. This marks a yearly low for the sector, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity.
In addition, the services sector is also struggling, as shown by a decline in the Services PMI from 51.2 in August to 50.6 in September, falling short of the forecasted 51.0.
The HCOB Preliminary German Composite Output Index came in at 47.2, lower than the expected 48.2 and down from 48.4 in August, reaching its weakest point in seven months.
These figures highlight the ongoing economic difficulties in Germany, raising concerns about the overall health of the eurozone economy.
Therefore, the worsening manufacturing and services data in Germany raises concerns about economic stability, likely putting downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair as investors anticipate further challenges for the eurozone economy.
Impact of ECB's Flexible Monetary Policy on EUR/USD Pair
Moreover, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde emphasized the need for flexible monetary policy in her recent speech. She stated that while the main goal of maintaining price stability remains the same, central banks must adapt to the rapidly changing global economy.
This flexibility is crucial for effectively addressing various challenges. By highlighting this, Lagarde acknowledges the current uncertainties in the market and the importance of adjusting policies to ensure economic stability and support growth in the eurozone.
Therefore, the Lagarde's focus on flexible monetary policy may lead to uncertainty about the ECB's future actions, likely putting downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair as traders reassess the euro's strength.
EUR/USD - Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at $1.11625, marking a flat session with minimal movement. The market is in a phase of consolidation, with a neutral bias, though technical indicators suggest the potential for further upside in the coming sessions.
The key to unlocking the next move lies around the pivot point at $1.1199. Should the pair break above this level, immediate resistance awaits at $1.1181, followed by stronger barriers at $1.1210 and $1.1241.
On the downside, the first line of support is at $1.1118, with deeper supports at $1.1094 and $1.1067.
The technical indicators support a cautious bullish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 58, indicating positive momentum but not yet overbought territory, leaving room for further gains.
Meanwhile, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.1103, providing a solid foundation for the pair. As long as the EUR/USD remains above this level, the overall trend favors the bulls.
In terms of trade strategy, a buy-above approach seems prudent, with an entry point at $1.11466. A reasonable profit target would be the pivot level of $1.11988, with a stop-loss set at $1.11174 to mitigate downside risk.
Given the relative calm in the market, the focus will be on whether the pair can gather enough momentum to break through resistance levels and sustain any rally.
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