EUR/USD Price Analysis – Sep 27, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward trend, remaining under pressure around the 1.1158 level and hitting an intra-day low of 1.1125. This decline is attributed to the renewed strength of the US dollar, which gained momentum following positive US economic data.
Meanwhile, the euro's performance against other major currencies remains weak, influenced by the release of the flash French Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Spanish Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), both of which indicated that price pressures increased at a slower-than-expected pace in September.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Positive Economic Data, Pressuring EUR/USD Pair
Despite Fed's overall dovish outlook, the US dollar is gaining momentum as the recent positive economic data reflects the strength of the US economy. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported a notable 3% growth in the US economy for the second quarter, indicating robust economic performance.
This growth, along with other favorable indicators, has increased confidence among investors and traders in the dollar's prospects.
In addition to the GDP growth, new orders for durable goods remained flat in August. However, a closer look reveals that orders excluding transportation increased by 0.5%, signaling resilience in certain sectors of the economy.
This suggests that businesses are still making investments despite broader economic challenges.
Moreover, initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped to 218,000, the lowest level since mid-May, highlighting a strengthening labor market.
A decrease in unemployment claims typically signals improved job security and economic stability, further supporting the dollar's upward trajectory.
Collectively, these indicators paint a positive picture of the US economy, reinforcing the dollar's position against other currencies and fostering optimism among market participants. Thus, the strengthening US dollar, driven by positive economic data, puts downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
EUR/USD Losses Intensify Amid Weaker Eurozone Inflation Data
Apart from this, the losses in the EUR/USD pair were further bolstered by the recent economic data indicating weaker inflation in the Eurozone. The flash French Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed an annual increase of only 1.5%, falling short of the expected 1.9% and significantly lower than the previous reading of 2.2%. On a monthly basis, the CPI also experienced a sharper decline of 1.2%, compared to the anticipated decrease of 0.8%.
Similarly, Spain's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) revealed an annual rise of just 1.7%, below the forecast of 1.9% and down from 2.4% in August, while the monthly HICP dropped by 0.1%, diverging from expectations for it to remain stable.
These disappointing inflation figures have heightened expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) may implement another interest rate cut at its upcoming October meeting, marking the third reduction in its current policy-easing cycle that commenced in June.
With inflation pressures decelerating in both France and Spain, investors are now closely monitoring the preliminary German and Eurozone HICP data set to be released on Monday and Tuesday. The results of these reports will likely influence future ECB policy decisions and the trajectory of the EUR/USD pair.
EUR/USD - Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at $1.11672, down 0.14% in today’s session, as traders remain cautious ahead of key macroeconomic data releases. The pair is hovering around the pivot point of $1.1164, a critical level that could dictate the direction of the next move.
Immediate resistance is seen at $1.1183, followed by $1.1198 and a more significant level at $1.1214. A breakout above these levels could trigger bullish momentum, driving the pair higher.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.1154, with further supports at $1.1140 and $1.1126. These levels will be crucial in maintaining the pair’s current uptrend.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.1162 is providing immediate support, aligning closely with the pivot point. A sustained move above this EMA could signal bullish continuation, while a break below could lead to a deeper correction.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 51, indicating neutral momentum. This suggests the pair could go either way, depending on how it interacts with immediate support and resistance levels.
If the RSI rises above 60, it could indicate a stronger bullish trend. However, a dip below 50 could shift the sentiment to bearish.
In conclusion, EUR/USD is at a critical juncture, with the potential for both bullish and bearish scenarios.
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