GBP/USD Price Analysis – March 13, 2023

Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.2062, up 0.28%in 24 hours.The pair gained momentum, rebounding substantially from recent losses as investors bet that the Federal Reserve will soften its hawkish rhetoric in the coming days in response to a growing banking crisis in the US.

Federal Reserve Board of Governors urgent meeting

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors scheduled an urgent closed-door meeting using expedited protocols on Monday, March 13. The Board reviewed and decided the advance and discount rates that the Fed would impose.

The unexpected collapse and FDIC seizure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Financial Group on Friday may have caused this hurried Fed meeting. The Fed used emergency steps to make borrowing easier for troubled banks. The White House also informed Silicon Valley Bank depositors that it would cover all withdrawals. Jerome Powell and his allies rushed in to help with a new tool to save the billionaire tech depositors at SVB and Signature Bank against hawkish threats of a 50bps rise.

Moreover, in March, the odds of a 50bps rise fell from 75% to less than 20%, and in May, the probability of a 25bps hike fell from a coin flip to only 85%. As a result, the dollar dropped significantly versus a basket of currencies, with DXY trading 0.23% down at 104.33. US 10-Year Bond Yield is now trading at 3.737, up 1.14%.

The unexpected fall in the dollar helped the GBP/USD currency pair to gain value.

UK and US Economic Conditions

British economic growth in January exceeded expectations, relieving concerns about a possible recession. Britain's GDP grew 0.3% month over month, following a 0.5% decline in December. According to a Reuters survey of economists, growth would be 0.1%.

In the United States, Nonfarm Payrolls revealed significant job growth last week, despite the rise in the Unemployment Rate and signs of cooling wage inflation, leading investors to lower expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates as sharply as expected.

Going ahead, traders are awaiting the US consumer price index and UK labor market data on Tuesday. BoE will especially appreciate slower wage growth following last month's positive surprise. However, with US CPI released, market reaction may be limited unless there is a significant surprise.

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support      Resistance

1.2044         1.2108

1.2010         1.2138

1.1980         1.2171

Pivot Point: 1.2074

GBP/USD – Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD pair is currently exhibiting a bullish bias and hovering around the 1.2100 level. For the bullish trend to continue as anticipated, a positive catalyst is needed to push the price towards its next target at 1.2260.

To achieve the expected targets, we recommend maintaining a bullish trend that relies on price stability above 1.2050. Breaking below this level will result in a price decline towards 1.1940 before any new positive attempts. Today's anticipated trading range is expected to fall between support at 1.2040 and resistance at 1.2200.