GBP/USD Price Analysis – March 14, 2023

Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.2151, which reflects a decrease of 0.25% in the last 24 hours. As traders anticipate significant economic data releases from the US and the UK, the pair is restricted to its recent trading highs.

Upcoming UK Macroeconomic Data

The upcoming UK employment statistics release is expected to have a significant impact on the British Pound in the days ahead. According to experts, the Claimant Count Change (Feb) is predicted to decrease by 12.4K, which is slightly less than the previous announcement of 12.9K. However, the three-month unemployment rate may rise to 3.8% from the previous release of 3.7%.

The Average Earnings data is expected to be the primary driver, with a predicted decrease to 5.7% from the previous release of 5.9%.

Investors must exercise caution as the UK economy faces inflationary pressures from rising labor costs and persistent increases in food prices. A decrease in UK employment costs and an increase in the unemployment rate could potentially reduce inflation expectations.

Despite this, the Pound is struggling to gain momentum due to investor concerns about risks to the UK financial system, leading to lower risk sentiment. However, if the Average Earnings Index and Claimant Count Change exceed expectations, it could potentially benefit the GBP/USD pair.

US Upcoming CPI

Following the fallout of SVB US on Friday, the US markets saw a significant decline. Despite emergency measures implemented by US authorities over the weekend to mitigate risk and restore confidence in the US banking system, investors remain uneasy today.

Although the risk-off sentiment initially supported the USD, markets have reduced their expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The US banking industry is displaying signs of instability due to high-interest rates, which could make Fed officials hesitant to implement further tightening measures.

Traders are currently anticipating Tuesday's US CPI release. According to market forecasts, the US CPI is expected to fall 6.0% YoY from 6.4%, while the CPI ex-Food & Energy might decline to 5.5% YoY from 5.6%.

As investors await the US CPI data, the dollar has risen again, with DXY up 0.25% on the day and trading at 103.86. The 10-Year US Treasury Rate in the bond markets was at 3.569%. Furthermore, if the US CPI comes in below expectations, it could strengthen the GBP/USD pair.

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support      Resistance

1.2081         1.2242

1.1980         1.2302

1.1919         1.2404

Pivot Point: 1.2141

GBP/USD – Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD pair has remained relatively unchanged since this morning and is hovering around the 1.2150 level. The expected bullish trend scenario for today remains unchanged, targeting the 1.2260 and 1.2440 levels as the next main stations. However, a positive motive is needed to push the price towards the suggested targets.

It is important to note that the continuation of the bullish wave depends on the price staying stable above 1.2070. The expected trading range for today is between 1.2070 support and 1.2250 resistance.