GBP/USD Price Analysis – Dec 25, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
The GBP/USD pair saw a modest uptick, reaching 1.2550, amidst light trading volume this week due to the approaching Christmas holidays. The market has been consolidating, showing little movement as traders adjust to the seasonal slowdown.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains largely flat, holding above 108.00, as investors await fresh economic data. Despite the holiday lull, the broader outlook for the US Dollar continues to be bullish, supported by expectations of a more gradual pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Fed's Cautious Approach to Rate Cuts Supports USD
The US Dollar has remained resilient, largely due to the Federal Reserve's recent shift towards a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts.
The Fed's officials have signaled that fewer cuts will be implemented next year, reflecting a slower-than-expected disinflation process and ongoing uncertainty regarding President-elect Donald Trump's economic policies.
According to the latest projections, the federal funds rate could fall to 3.9% by the end of 2025, with only two rate cuts anticipated next year. This shift in expectations supports the US Dollar, as markets recalibrate for a more measured approach from the central bank.
Economic Data to Impact GBP/USD
The upcoming economic data will likely drive volatility in the GBP/USD pair. On Thursday, the US will release Initial Jobless Claims, with economists expecting a slight decline to 218K from the previous 220K.
This could impact the US Dollar as traders assess labor market conditions. Additionally, the Nonfarm Payrolls report for December, due in early January, will be a key focal point for investors. Strong employment data could further solidify the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts, providing continued support for the US Dollar.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.25296, showing a modest 0.01% decline. The pair is hovering just below the critical pivot point of 1.25653, with immediate resistance at 1.26586 and further resistance at 1.27292 and 1.27819.
These resistance levels will need to be breached for any potential bullish movement, but the overall sentiment remains bearish.
Immediate support is found at 1.24764, followed by 1.24237 and 1.23771. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sits at 1.25511, signaling a neutral-to-bearish trend in the short term.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45 reflects a neutral to slightly bearish momentum, with no clear signs of a reversal at this point.
The market is looking for direction, and a breach below 1.24764 could trigger further declines toward the next support levels.
On the flip side, if GBP/USD manages to break above the immediate resistance at 1.25653, it could pave the way for a rally toward 1.26586, though this would require a significant shift in sentiment.
Overall, the market remains cautious, with volatility driven by global economic and geopolitical factors.
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