GBP/USD Price Analysis – July 15, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Despite investors initially favoring the United Kingdom (UK) markets for investment, the GBP/USD currency pair failed to sustain its upward momentum. It turned bearish around the 1.2978 level, reaching an intra-day low of 1.2962.
This downturn can be attributed to the strengthening US dollar, which has gained momentum despite expectations of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Heightened safe-haven demand for the US dollar followed reports of an attempted assassination of former US President Donald Trump, adding further downward pressure on GBP/USD.
While uncertainty over potential Bank of England rate cuts initially supported the Sterling, contrasting expectations with the Fed's easing stance contributed to the pair's decline.
Impact of Geopolitical Events and Economic Data on GBP/USD Pair
Despite increasing expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts starting in September, the broad-based US dollar has shown strength, bolstered by reports of an attempted assassination of former US President Donald Trump. This has exerted downward pressure on silver prices.
However, market sentiment strongly leans towards a Fed rate cut in September, supported by a recent report indicating subdued levels of US consumer inflation. Economically, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 2.6% increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand in June, surpassing expectations of 2.3%.
Therefore, the US Dollar has remained strong despite expectations of Fed rate cuts, influenced by geopolitical events and solid economic data. This has contributed to downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair.
Impact of BoE Rate Cut Uncertainty on GBP/USD Pair
On the Bank of England front, uncertainty about lowering interest rates has boosted the Pound Sterling, making it stronger against other major currencies this Monday. Investors prefer UK markets because they see stability under Keir Starmer's Labour Party, especially compared to political uncertainties in the EU and US.
Many expect the Bank of England to start cutting rates in August, but policymakers are hesitant due to high inflation in the service sector driven by strong wage growth. This week, upcoming UK data on inflation and employment will give more clarity. If inflation is slightly lower and wage growth slows, it could affect future BoE decisions.
Therefore, the uncertainty over BoE rate cuts has supported the Pound against major currencies like the US Dollar, reflecting investor preference for UK stability. Expectations from upcoming UK economic data could further influence GBP/USD dynamics.
GBP/USD - Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD pair is currently trading at $1.29725, reflecting a slight increase of 0.12%. The 4-hour chart highlights crucial levels that could dictate the pair's movement. The pivot point is set at $1.3010, a significant marker for potential shifts in direction.
Immediate resistance is identified at $1.2991, with further resistance at $1.3028 and $1.3068. These levels are critical for traders to watch, as they indicate where upward momentum might face obstacles.
On the downside, immediate support is located at $1.2898, followed by $1.2858 and $1.2817, suggesting zones where prices could stabilize or rebound if selling pressure increases.
Technical indicators provide deeper insights into market sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 68, indicating the pair is approaching overbought territory. This suggests caution for traders considering long positions.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $1.2879, acting as a dynamic support level that could prevent further declines if the price remains above this average.
Given these observations, the outlook for GBP/USD suggests a cautious bullish sentiment above the pivot point of $1.3010. An entry price to buy above $1.29588 could be considered, targeting a take profit at $1.30103, with a stop loss set at $1.29326 to manage risk effectively.
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