GOLD Price Analysis – Dec 11, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) struggled to maintain upward momentum near $2,680 and slid to an intra-day low of $2,675, pressured by a stronger US dollar.
Traders are now awaiting the release of the US November Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, expected later in the North American session, for further market cues.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and unrest in the Middle East, continue to bolster gold’s status as a safe-haven asset.
Furthermore, concerns about potential tariff policies under President-elect Donald Trump are adding to market uncertainty, further supporting gold’s appeal as a hedge.
Stronger US Dollar and Economic Data Pressure Gold Amid CPI and Fed Decision Uncertainty
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has gained strength ahead of the release of November's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, due later in the North American session.
Analysts expect inflation to rise to 2.7% year-over-year (YoY) in November, slightly up from 2.6% in October.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is predicted to remain steady at a 3.3% YoY increase.
If inflation shows signs of slowing, it could reduce the chances of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut, providing additional support to the US dollar.
Market participants are closely watching the Fed’s next move, with traders currently estimating an 85.8% likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut on December 18, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Adding to the dollar’s momentum, the US November Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report showed a strong 227,000 job gain, surpassing expectations, along with steady wage growth of 0.4% month-over-month.
These solid labor market indicators add complexity to the Fed’s decision-making as inflation data becomes a key focus.
Therefore, the stronger US dollar and robust economic data weigh on gold prices, as they reduce gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
However, uncertainty surrounding the upcoming CPI data and Fed decisions could keep gold supported amid market volatility.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $2,695.49, up 0.05%, holding its position within a steady upward trend on the 4-hour chart. The immediate pivot point at $2,676.07 underscores a critical threshold for maintaining bullish momentum.
Resistance levels are marked at $2,704.36 and $2,719.93, with a break above these thresholds paving the way for continued gains.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $2,656.82, followed by deeper support zones at $2,643.45 and $2,627.40, which could be tested if selling pressure intensifies.
The RSI at 66 indicates mildly overbought conditions, suggesting the potential for short-term consolidation before a renewed move higher. The 50 EMA at $2,656.89 reinforces the bullish outlook, acting as a strong support level.
From a strategic perspective, traders may consider entering long positions above $2,680, with a target of $2,703 and a stop-loss at $2,669. This setup balances risk and reward, capitalizing on sustained buying momentum within the channel.
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