GOLD Price Analysis – Sep 29, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) has managed to stop its four-day losing streak, which had pushed it down to a near seven-month low of around $1,858-1,857 on Thursday. However, the declining US bond yields played a key role by pulling the US dollar back from its recent 10-month high. This, in turn, provided a boost to the precious metal. Furthermore, the looming threat of a US government shutdown on October 1, coupled with ongoing concerns about China's struggling property market, have further bolstered the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset.
Factors Behind Recent USD Decline and Gold's Support
As we mentioned above, the broad-based US dollar has been losing some of its traction, and there are a few key reasons behind this. One significant factor is the retreating US bond yields, which have pulled the USD down from its recent 10-month high. This has, in turn, provided support to the price of gold.
Another factor influencing the USD's recent decline is the repositioning of trading positions in anticipation of the US PCE Price Index. This index, particularly its core measure, plays a key role in shaping the Federal Reserve's understanding of inflation. Notably, the outcomes of this data can significantly impact expectations regarding the Fed's upcoming policy decisions, and this, in turn, has implications for the USD's performance.
Anticipating September Manufacturing PMI
Looking forward, investors are keeping a close eye on the Manufacturing PMI report for September, set to be released on Monday. This report will provide important insights into the state of the factory sector. Expectations are that the PMI data will indicate the 11th straight month of contraction in factory activity.
GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis
The price of gold has persistently declined, successfully breaching the $1,873.50 mark and culminating in a daily close below this threshold.
This trajectory has enabled it to reach our revised target of $1,860.00, and projections indicate a sustained downtrend, potentially touching new lows at $1,839.00 and extending to $1,810.00.
Given the prevailing conditions, the bearish sentiment is anticipated to dominate the foreseeable future, bolstered by the downward pressure exerted by the EMA50.
It's worth noting that a breakthrough above $1,873.50 could curtail the anticipated drop, prompting short-term recuperative endeavors.
Today's trading is predicted to oscillate between the support level of $1,845.00 and the resistance at $1,880.00.
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold's price has consistently descended, breaking and closing below the $1,873.50 benchmark.
- The bearish trend, influenced by the EMA50, suggests further decline, potentially reaching as low as $1,810.00.
- Trading for the day is anticipated to range between the $1,845.00 support and $1,880.00 resistance.
The price of gold has persistently declined, successfully breaching the $1,873.50 mark and culminating in a daily close below this threshold.
This trajectory has enabled it to reach our revised target of $1,860.00, and projections indicate a sustained downtrend, potentially touching new lows at $1,839.00 and extending to $1,810.00.
Given the prevailing conditions, the bearish sentiment is anticipated to dominate the foreseeable future, bolstered by the downward pressure exerted by the EMA50.
It's worth noting that a breakthrough above $1,873.50 could curtail the anticipated drop, prompting short-term recuperative endeavors.
Today's trading is predicted to oscillate between the support level of $1,845.00 and the resistance at $1,880.00.
GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis
Entry Price – Buy Above 1864
Take Profit – 1883
Stop Loss – 1853
Risk to Reward – 1: 7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1900/ -$1100
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$190/ -$110
GOLD Price Analysis – Sep 28, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Despite the ongoing risk-off mood in the market, gold prices (XAU/USD) have continued their downward trajectory, failing to find support. However, this decline can be attributed to the bullish US dollar and the rise in US Treasury bond yields, both of which have made gold appear less attractive to investors. On the flip side, the risk-off sentiment in the financial markets, driven by concerns about China's troubled real estate sector and the looming possibility of a US government shutdown, has prompted some investors to seek refuge in gold as a safe haven for their investments. Hence, this shift in sentiment is considered one of the key factors that may help gold price to limit its declines.
Gold's Challenges Amidst Fed Expectations and Economic Reports
It is worth noting that many people are assuming that the Federal Reserve could pose challenges for the gold prices. However, this belief arises from the idea that if the Fed adopts a more restrictive monetary policy, it could lead to a strengthening of the US dollar and an increase in bond yields, both of which exert downward pressure on gold price.
Moving on, traders are awaiting the release of a key inflation indicator, the US Core PCE Price Index, scheduled for Friday. This data will provide clear understandings into the Fed's potential actions regarding interest rates. Furthermore, economic reports like the US Q2 GDP and weekly jobless claims have the potential to impact the performance of the US dollar. Consequently, the overall sentiment in the financial markets will play a key role in shaping short-term trading opportunities for gold.
Market Concerns and Economic Factors Impacting Gold
Moreover, investors have been growing increasingly concerned about a couple of significant factors that are putting pressure on gold. Firstly, there are worries surrounding China's property market and the rising costs of borrowing, both of which are acting as barriers for gold's upward movement. Adding to this, the recent hawkish comments made by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari are raising expectations that the Federal Reserve might implement at least one more interest rate hike before the year's end. Furthermore, the release of better-than-expected US Durable Goods Orders data suggests that the Fed is likely to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. Thus, the hawkish Fed comments and strong economic data can put further pressure on gold prices.
GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis
The gold price has stabilized at the $1873.50 mark following a pronounced downturn experienced the previous day. It's anticipated that should this level be breached, we could see further downward momentum targeting the $1860.00 mark, followed by the $1845.00 threshold.
Given this context, a bearish trajectory is projected for the near term. However, it's pivotal to note that any inability to move below the $1873.50 level could curtail this decline, potentially initiating a bullish adjustment with objectives set at the $1890.00 and subsequently the $1900.00 marks.
For today, the anticipateThe gold price has stabilized at the $1873.50 mark following a pronounced downturn experienced the previous day. It's anticipated that should this level be breached, we could see further downward momentum targeting the $1860.00 mark, followed by the $1845.00 threshold.
Given this context, a bearish trajectory is projected for the near term. However, it's pivotal to note that any inability to move below the $1873.50 level could curtail this decline, potentially initiating a bullish adjustment with objectives set at the $1890.00 and subsequently the $1900.00 marks.
For today, the anticipated trading range is delineated between a support at $1855.00 and a resistance at $1890.00.d trading range is delineated between a support at $1855.00 and a resistance at $1890.00.
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold price holds at $1873.50; potential decline targets are $1860.00 and $1845.00.
- A failure to drop below $1873.50 could trigger a bullish shift towards $1890.00 and $1900.00.
- Today's expected trading range spans from a $1855.00 support to a $1890.00 resistance.
The gold price has stabilized at the $1873.50 mark following a pronounced downturn experienced the previous day. It's anticipated that should this level be breached, we could see further downward momentum targeting the $1860.00 mark, followed by the $1845.00 threshold.
Given this context, a bearish trajectory is projected for the near term. However, it's pivotal to note that any inability to move below the $1873.50 level could curtail this decline, potentially initiating a bullish adjustment with objectives set at the $1890.00 and subsequently the $1900.00 marks.
For today, the anticipateThe gold price has stabilized at the $1873.50 mark following a pronounced downturn experienced the previous day. It's anticipated that should this level be breached, we could see further downward momentum targeting the $1860.00 mark, followed by the $1845.00 threshold.
Given this context, a bearish trajectory is projected for the near term. However, it's pivotal to note that any inability to move below the $1873.50 level could curtail this decline, potentially initiating a bullish adjustment with objectives set at the $1890.00 and subsequently the $1900.00 marks.
For today, the anticipated trading range is delineated between a support at $1855.00 and a resistance at $1890.00.d trading range is delineated between a support at $1855.00 and a resistance at $1890.00.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Buy Above 1872
Take Profit – 1893
Stop Loss – 1862
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1200/ -$1000
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$120/ -$100
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold's price has notably dropped below the $1913.15 level, moving towards the $1900.00 mark, hinting at a strengthened short-term bearish perspective with targets set at $1890.00 and potentially further down to $1875.00.
- The EMA50 underlines a downward trajectory, suggesting an extended decline in upcoming sessions.
- Today's trading range is expected between support at $1880.00 and resistance at $1913.00, with the dominant trend leaning bearish.
The price of gold decisively surpassed the $1913.15 mark, stabilizing below it, and has now approached the $1900.00 threshold. This strengthens the interim bearish outlook, setting sights on potential descents to $1890.00, followed by a further decline to the $1875.00 mark.
Given this trajectory, we anticipate a continued decline in the forthcoming sessions, bolstered by the downward momentum exhibited by the EMA50. It's pivotal to highlight that any breach of the $1913.15 level would negate this bearish perspective, prompting the gold price to initiate intraday recovery maneuvers.
For today, the projected trading span is set between a support of $1880.00 and a resistance at $1913.00. The prevailing trend for the day is anticipated to be bearish.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Sell Below 1902
Take Profit – 1890
Stop Loss – 1910
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1200/ -$800
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$120/ -$80
GOLD Price Analysis – Sep 27, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Despite a risk-off sentiment in the market, gold is not finding much support as a safe-haven asset. Gold price (XAU/USD) has failed to stop its three-day losing streak and dropped to its lowest point since August 22. This decline marks the sixth negative move in the past seven days, with the price falling below the $1,900 mark. However, the main reason behind this downward trend appears to be the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, which is strengthening the US dollar and weighing on the value of gold. In the meantime, the weaker risk tone fails to support the safe-haven XAU/USD.
US Dollar Strength and Its Impact on Gold Prices
The broad-based US dollar has been gaining traction and remained well-bid, reaching its highest value in 10 months. However, this surge comes after the Federal Reserve hinted that they plan to keep interest rates higher for a longer time, making the dollar more attractive. Although, this has not been good news for gold prices, which have taken a hit. It is worth recalling that Fed officials mentioned the probability of another interest rate hike by year-end, which has fueled this upward trend.
At the same time, the growing anticipation of higher interest rates has caused the yield on the 10-year US government bond to climb to levels not witnessed since 2007. This development has pushed down gold prices because investors are turning to assets that offer higher returns, which makes gold less appealing in comparison.
Gold's Unusual Behavior Amid Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators
Despite the cautious mood in the market, gold is not getting its usual boost as a safe-haven asset. However, the latest data from the US shows that in September, consumer confidence hit a four-month low. This drop is causing concerns because it suggests that consumers are feeling the pressure of high inflation and rising interest rates.
Furthermore, the ongoing worries about a possible real estate crisis in China, the world's second-largest economy, are making investors more cautious about taking risks with their investments. These global worries are breaking the usual pattern where gold tends to do well during uncertain times. Investors are adjusting to these complex factors, and it's reshaping the financial landscape in unexpected ways.
Looking ahead, gold traders are keeping an eye on the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, a key measure for consumer inflation used by the Fed. This Friday, the annual figure is expected to drop from 4.2% to 3.9%. Traders will use this information to identify trading opportunities and make decisions regarding gold prices.
GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis
The price of gold decisively surpassed the $1913.15 mark, stabilizing below it, and has now approached the $1900.00 threshold. This strengthens the interim bearish outlook, setting sights on potential descents to $1890.00, followed by a further decline to the $1875.00 mark.
Given this trajectory, we anticipate a continued decline in the forthcoming sessions, bolstered by the downward momentum exhibited by the EMA50. It's pivotal to highlight that any breach of the $1913.15 level would negate this bearish perspective, prompting the gold price to initiate intraday recovery maneuvers.
For today, the projected trading span is set between a support of $1880.00 and a resistance at $1913.00. The prevailing trend for the day is anticipated to be bearish.
GOLD Price Analysis – Sep 26, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) failed to stop its losing streak and declined to $1,910 per troy ounce in the early European session on Tuesday. However, the reason for its downward rally could be linked to the ongoing strength of the US Dollar and rising US Treasury yields. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's more hawkish stance was seen as another key factor that has been putting downward pressure on Gold prices.
Fed's Inflation Concerns and Strong US Dollar Impacting Gold
It is worth noting that the Federal Reserve recently warned that inflation in the United States is still a concern. This means they might increase interest rates one more time by the end of the year. Furthermore, most Fed officials now expect only two interest rate cuts in 2024, down from the previous estimate of four. Hence, this news, along with strong economic data in the US, suggests that the Fed could make borrowing money more expensive.
Furthermore, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari even suggested that they might need to keep interest rates high for a while to control inflation. This "hawkish" stance is making the US dollar stronger and causing the price of gold to drop.
The broad-based US dollar has gained significant strength in recent times, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) now hovering near 106.00. This marks its highest level since November. In the meantime, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note has surged to 4.55%, a level not witnessed since October 2007.
Investors seems worried that higher interest rates could damage the economy by making it more expensive to borrow money. Apart from these worries, the concerns about a housing crisis in China are contributing to instability in the stock markets. Interestingly, this instability was seen as one of the key factor that kept the lid on any additional losses in the gold price.
Government Shutdown Concerns and Gold's Safe-Haven Appeal
US President Joe Biden and one of his top advisers are worried about a possible government shutdown if the federal government can't agree on its budget. This could cut food help for 7 million low-income women and kids. Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy talked about government spending, but the Republican-led House wants cuts. The uncertainty of a shutdown might make people turn to safe assets like gold, which could help prevent a big drop in its price.
Looking forward, investors will closely monitor key economic data like US Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims, and the Core PCE Price Index. These releases will offer insights into inflation trends and may affect the Federal Reserve's policies, potentially influencing Gold prices.
GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis
The gold price exhibited a discernible downward trajectory yesterday, closely approaching the pivotal support level at $1913.15. Influenced by the negative pressure from the EMA50, there are emerging indications suggesting potential further depreciation should it breach this support.
Given the uncertainty, a wait-and-see approach is recommended until there's a clearer stance regarding the $1913.15 benchmark. A breach could intensify the bearish momentum, potentially steering the price towards targets of $1890.00 and subsequently, $1875.00. Conversely, if it sustains above this level, a resurgence targeting $1945.20 in the short term might be anticipated.
For today, the expected trading range is between support at $1900.00 and resistance at $1930.00.
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold price nears critical support at $1913.15, facing downward pressure influenced by the EMA50.
- Uncertainty around the $1913.15 mark suggests potential movements towards $1890.00 or an upward swing to $1945.20.
- Today's trading range is forecasted between $1900.00 (support) and $1930.00 (resistance).
The gold price exhibited a discernible downward trajectory yesterday, closely approaching the pivotal support level at $1913.15. Influenced by the negative pressure from the EMA50, there are emerging indications suggesting potential further depreciation should it breach this support.
Given the uncertainty, a wait-and-see approach is recommended until there's a clearer stance regarding the $1913.15 benchmark. A breach could intensify the bearish momentum, potentially steering the price towards targets of $1890.00 and subsequently, $1875.00. Conversely, if it sustains above this level, a resurgence targeting $1945.20 in the short term might be anticipated.
For today, the expected trading range is between support at $1900.00 and resistance at $1930.00.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Sell Below 1915
Take Profit – 1905
Stop Loss – 1920
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1000/ -$500
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$100/ -$50
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold struggles at the $1929 resistance, with a slight bearish tilt influenced by the waning negative momentum of the stochastic indicator.
- The optimistic perspective remains, but a dip below $1913.15 could trigger a decline towards the near-term target of $1875.00.
- The day's expected trading range spans from $1910.00 (support) to $1940.00 (resistance).
The gold price has encountered resistance at the $1929 mark, exhibiting a minor bearish inclination. This trend is influenced by the stochastic indicator, which is gradually shedding its negative momentum. The market awaits a positive catalyst that could propel the price beyond the aforementioned level, aiming for a subsequent target at $1945.20.
For the time being, our outlook remains optimistic unless there's a breach below the $1913.15 threshold and sustained trading beneath it. Penetrating this level could be detrimental, potentially leading the price to further declines targeting $1875.00 in the near term.
Today's anticipated trading bracket is set between a support at $1910.00 and a resistance at $1940.00.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Sell Below 1925
Take Profit – 1914
Stop Loss – 1930
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1096/ -$500
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$109/ -$50
GOLD Price Analysis – Sep 25, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
During the early European session on Monday, the price of gold (XAU/USD) failed to maintain its upward rally and dipped to $1,920 level. However, this drop was mainly influenced by the strength of the US dollar against other currencies. Notably, the broad-based US dollar has been rising for ten weeks and is now around 105.55, close to its highest level since March 2023. However, the increase in the US dollar's value is mainly due to expectations of higher interest rates in the US. It is worth mentioning that the rising interest rates make non-yielding assets like gold less attractive to investors, resulting in a negative outlook for XAU/USD.
US Economic Concerns Amidst Rate Hikes and Inflation
The latest Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report, released last Friday, raised concerns about the demand in the US economy. These worries follow a series of interest rate hikes and a rise in inflation. According to the latest data, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for the US showed a slight improvement, rising from 47.9 in August to 48.9 in September, suggesting a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector. In the meantime, the Services PMI dipped slightly from 50.5 to 50.2, and the Composite PMI also declined marginally from 50.2 to 50.1 in August.
During the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, it was decided to maintain interest rates within the range of 5.25% to 5.50%. However, notable discussions during the meeting indicated that the majority of members predict upcoming rate hikes later in the year. Susan Collins and Mary Daly, who preside over the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston and San Francisco, highlighted in their remarks that while inflation seems to be moderating, they believe that additional rate hikes will remain necessary to ensure economic stability and address any lingering concerns.
Therefore, The possibility of upcoming rate hikes by the FOMC may lead to downward pressure on gold prices as higher rates can make non-interest-bearing assets like gold less attractive to investors.
Upcoming US Economic Indicators: Impact on XAU/USD and Gold Prices
Looking forward, traders are closely watching US economic indicators. The Q2 GDP Annualized release on Thursday and the Core PCE Price Index on Friday, expected to dip from 4.2% to 3.9%, will influence XAU/USD dynamics.
GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis
The gold price has encountered resistance at the $1929 mark, exhibiting a minor bearish inclination. This trend is influenced by the stochastic indicator, which is gradually shedding its negative momentum. The market awaits a positive catalyst that could propel the price beyond the aforementioned level, aiming for a subsequent target at $1945.20.
For the time being, our outlook remains optimistic unless there's a breach below the $1913.15 threshold and sustained trading beneath it. Penetrating this level could be detrimental, potentially leading the price to further declines targeting $1875.00 in the near term.
Today's anticipated trading bracket is set between a support at $1910.00 and a resistance at $1940.00.