GOLD Price Analysis – July 12, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
During the early European session, the price of gold (XAU/USD) surged to a new three-week high, reaching $1,941.60.
This upward movement is attributed to the significant pressure on the US Dollar Index (DXY) caused by the anticipation of a further decline in the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which has strengthened the precious metal's position above the $1,940.00 level.
S&P 500 futures, after reaching a high on Tuesday, have exhibited choppy behavior, indicating a relatively calm market sentiment in the overall positive risk profile. Investors are cautious ahead of the release of second-quarter corporate earnings and inflation figures.
The yields on US 10-year Treasury notes have slightly decreased and are currently around 3.96%.
Although the USD Index has found temporary support near 101.35, the negative bias remains strong. While it is premature to completely dismiss the US Dollar, economists at Commerzbank believe that the Friday labor market report was not as negative as anticipated.
They hold the opinion that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise its key rate once more at the end of July due to their view that the labor market is still too tight.
Investors are primarily focused on the upcoming inflation figures. It is predicted that both monthly and core inflation will continue to rise steadily at a rate of 0.3%.
The headline CPI annualized statistics are expected to ease to 3.1%, while core CPI is anticipated to ease to 5.0%. Additionally, investors will closely monitor the release of the Fed's Beige Book, along with the inflation data.
GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical analysis
Gold prices have successfully surpassed the $1929.00 level, confirmed by the daily candlestick closing above it. The next crucial resistance stands at $1945.20, supported by the EMA50. However, caution is advised as stochastic indicators display negative signals that could impede further upward movement.
It is recommended to remain on the sidelines until clearer signals for the next trend emerge, either by breaking the resistance at $1945.20 or the support at $1929.00.
A breach of the resistance would lead to additional gains targeting $1977.25, while breaking the support could reintroduce bearish pressure, potentially testing the $1913.15 level initially.
Breaking this level would open the path for a decline towards the next negative target at $1873.45.
The expected trading range for today is anticipated to be between the support level at $1920.00 and the resistance level at $1960.00. Overall, the trend for today is expected to be neutral.
Related News:
GBP/USD Price Analysis – July 12, 2023
JOIN LONGHORNFX TODAY
24/7 live support, lightning fast withdrawals, guaranteed safe and reliable trading platforms with a true ECN broker.