Gold Price Analysis – May 01, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Despite the renewed strength of US dollar. the price of Gold (XAU/USD) gained positive traction and edged higher around the $2,288.39 level, hitting an intraday high of $2,293.24. The upward rally can be linked to multiple factors, including increasing geopolitical tensions, which tend to underpin the safe-haven gold price.
Furthermore, the upticks in the gold price were bolstered by continued gold buying by China. China, the biggest gold buyer, has been steadily purchasing gold since October 2022, marking the longest streak since 2000. This has contributed to upward pressure on gold prices globally.
In contrast, the hawkish Fed stance and bullish US dollar were key factors limiting additional gains in gold prices. Investors are feeling uncertain or hesitant due to upcoming decisions by the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy.
They are closely watching upcoming economic indicators such as the US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) and ADP Employment Change to gauge the health of the economy.
US Dollar Strength and Potential Impact on Gold Prices
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar prolonged its bullish rally and continues to show strength ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting. This rally was fueled by US bond yields surging after higher-than-expected Employment Cost Index data.
Furthermore, hawkish remarks from Fed officials, indicating no immediate need for rate cuts, supported the US dollar and could limit gains in the gold price.
Investors will closely watch the press conference following the Fed meeting for guidance. Therefore, a hawkish tone from the Fed could strengthen the US dollar and limit additional gains in precious metals.
China's Gold Purchases and Impact on Gold Prices
On the China front, the world's leading gold consumer has been steadily buying gold since October 2022, marking its longest accumulation of the precious metal since at least 2000. This consistent buying trend is likely to support further increases in the price of gold.
China's actions indicate a strategic move to increase its gold reserves, which could be driven by various factors, including economic stability and long-term investment strategies. Therefore, this continuous gold purchases by China are closely watched by market participants and are expected to have a positive impact on the overall demand and price of gold.
Geopolitical Tensions in Gaza and Impact on Precious Metal Prices
On the geopolitical front, the tensions in the middle east did not show any sign of slowing down and escalated further as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announces plans for Israeli forces to enter Gaza's southern city of Rafah, despite a ceasefire deal with Hamas.
Meanwhile, UN chief Guterres expresses dissatisfaction with the slow progress on Gaza aid, urging Israel to prioritize the safety of humanitarian workers and facilitate urgent aid delivery to the enclave.
As per the latest figures, the death toll from Israeli attacks on Gaza since October 7 has surpassed 34,000 Palestinians killed and nearly 78,000 wounded.
Therefore, the ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in Gaza, boosted the gold price as investors tend to turn to safe-haven assets such as precious metals during times of uncertainty, driving up demand and causing gold prices to rise.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis
As of today, the price of gold stands at $2286.275, showing no change from the previous session. The precious metal is trading just below a pivotal mark at $2293, suggesting a tentative stance among investors as they navigate through various economic indicators and geopolitical tensions.
The immediate resistance for gold is observed at $2313, with further resistance levels marked at $2330 and $2353. These thresholds are critical if gold is to regain its upward momentum. Conversely, support levels are established at $2277, followed by $2257 and $2233. These points could provide a cushion should gold face downward pressure.
Technical indicators lend a nuanced view of the current market conditions. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 30, indicating that gold might be in oversold territory, which typically precedes a potential reversal or at least some corrective upward movement. Meanwhile, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $2332, which gold has been unable to reclaim, reinforcing the significance of these resistance levels.
Given the strategic setup, a cautious approach might be advisable. Investors should consider a sell limit order at $2300, targeting a take profit at $2278, with a stop loss set at $2315.
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