GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 21, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) has maintained its bullish trend for the fourth day and remained well-bid around the 2,662 level, However, the ongoing tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have been a major driver behind this bullish trend, as investors seek the safety of gold amid growing geopolitical risks.
On top of that, a weaker US Dollar has also helped push gold prices higher. This combination of factors has supported gold’s steady rise throughout the week.
Investors are worried that President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs could drive up inflation, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
There are also concerns that his tax cuts, funded by debt, could lead to larger budget deficits, keeping US Treasury bond yields high. This could boost the US Dollar and make traders less likely to bet heavily on gold, which doesn’t pay interest.
US Dollar Strength and Rising Bond Yields Weigh on Gold Prices
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar managed to stay strong, supported by worries that President-elect Donald Trump’s policies could boost inflation and limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates.
Recently, several key Fed officials, including Lisa Cook and Michelle Bowman, warned that the central bank may have to slow or pause its rate cuts if inflation progress stalls.
This caution from the Fed has kept US Treasury bond yields high, helping to keep the Dollar near its year-to-date high. As a result, the possibility of further rate cuts seems uncertain, which is adding to the strength of the Greenback.
In addition, the yield on the 10-year US government bond rose sharply this week, which, combined with a positive market sentiment, is putting pressure on gold prices.
Investors will be closely watching upcoming US economic data, including jobless claims and home sales, as well as speeches from Fed officials for clues about the future of rate cuts.
These factors will likely influence the Dollar and impact gold’s performance, as gold, being a non-yielding asset, tends to struggle when bond yields and the Dollar rise.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,660.89, up 0.39% for the day, supported by strong bullish sentiment on the 4-hour chart. Prices remain comfortably above the pivot point at $2,646, suggesting sustained momentum.
Immediate resistance lies at $2,675.25, followed by $2,691.73 and $2,711.09, as gold continues to push toward higher levels amid global uncertainty and robust safe-haven demand.
On the downside, immediate support is at $2,619.22, with additional levels at $2,592.86 and $2,571.02 providing safety nets for potential retracements. The RSI is currently at 73, indicating overbought conditions, though the strong trend suggests this may persist in the short term.
The 50-day EMA at $2,613.76 offers solid support, reinforcing the bullish case. Traders are advised to monitor the $2,646 pivot closely, as a break below this level could reverse the trend and open the door to sharper declines toward $2,619 or lower.
A potential entry point is identified at $2,646, with a suggested stop loss at $2,630 to manage downside risks. Profit targets are set at $2,674 and above, as technical indicators align with bullish market conditions.
Overall, gold’s technical landscape remains favorable above $2,646, bolstered by geopolitical risks and investor appetite for safe-haven assets. Traders should watch resistance at $2,691.73 for confirmation of further upside momentum.
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