GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 28, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) managed to reverse its earlier downward trend and gained some positive momentum, hovering around the 2,646 level and reaching an intraday high of 2,647.
Investors are still worried about the potential impact of US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans on the global economy.
On top of that, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to add to the uncertainty. These concerns are keeping gold in demand as a safe-haven asset, helping it maintain its bullish traction.
Despite gold’s attempt to maintain its bullish momentum, its upside remains limited as the US Dollar found fresh support.
The Federal Reserve’s likely slower pace of rate cuts, backed by upbeat US economic data earlier this week, pushed US Treasury yields slightly higher, boosting the Dollar’s appeal.
This limited the upside for the non-yielding metal. On top of that, a more optimistic market mood and quieter trading due to a US holiday kept gold bulls from making any bold moves.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Positive Economic Data, But Gold Holds Firm on Inflation Concerns
On the US front, the US Dollar gained strength, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve may slow its pace of interest rate cuts. This optimism came after Wednesday’s positive economic data.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a key inflation measure, rose to 2.3% in October from 2.1% in September. Core PCE, excluding food and energy, also climbed to 2.8%.
The economy grew at a robust 2.8% annual rate in the third quarter, driven by strong consumer spending, which surged by 3.5%. Unemployment claims fell slightly to 213,000, reflecting a stable job market, though Durable Goods Orders missed expectations, showing a modest 0.2% rise.
Despite the stronger US Dollar and higher Treasury yields, which typically put pressure on Gold, the precious metal continued to hold its ground as concerns about inflation, especially with President-elect Donald Trump’s potential policies, kept Gold in demand as a safe-haven asset.
Besides this, the Federal Reserve’s indication that it might pause rate cuts if inflation stays high also provided some support for Gold prices.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,632.48, down 0.14%, as bearish momentum continues to weigh on prices below the $2,633.90 pivot point. The 4-hour chart indicates a cautious market, with immediate resistance at $2,646.32, followed by $2,655.97.
The 50-day EMA at $2,653.22 reinforces this resistance zone, making it a critical barrier for any recovery. A breakout above these levels could pave the way toward bullish momentum, targeting $2,663 and beyond.
On the downside, immediate support is observed at $2,625.31, with further declines pointing to $2,590.17 and $2,576.56. The RSI at 45 reflects mild bearish sentiment, though it has yet to reach oversold conditions, leaving room for further downside pressure.
The current setup suggests that gold’s near-term trajectory hinges on a decisive move above $2,636.56 or below $2,624. A break above the pivot could trigger buying momentum, targeting $2,653, while a sustained drop below $2,615 would likely accelerate selling pressure.
Traders should monitor these key levels closely. The recommended strategy includes buying above $2,624 with a take-profit target at $2,653 and a stop-loss at $2,615 to manage downside risks effectively.
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