S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – March 15, 2023

Daily Price Outlook

The S&P500 has risen 1.65% on the last day to trade at 3,919.29. US stocks recovered as anticipation of the extent of the rate rise at the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week was muted by inflation data that was mostly on target and easing concerns about the spread in the banking sector.

US CPI Eases

On Tuesday, investors appeared to take hope in the fact that the risk of market spread from the Silicon Valley Bank crisis was reducing. However, the stability of the global banking industry under rising interest rates remained a focus.

Meanwhile, the CPI data from the US Labor Department revealed that consumer prices decreased in February, roughly in line with market forecasts, with both headline and core measures recording significant annual decreases.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation in the US, decreased from 6.4% in January to 6% in February. The reading matched the expectations set by the market.

There is still a long way until inflation reaches the central bank's 2% target on an annual average. However, the chances that the Federal Reserve would adopt a 25 basis-point boost to its benchmark interest rate at the end of its two-day policy meeting on March 22 has grown in response to indications of economic softening and the regional banking crisis.

The US dollar fell as traders doubted the possibility of another rate increase by the Fed later this month in light of the US financial crisis and easing inflation. DXY is now trading down at 103.54. Moreover, the US 10-Year Treasury yield increased to trade at 3.666%.

After several days of risk-off instability, the S&P 500 finished significantly higher as bank fears decreased and inflation cooled.

Insulet was selected to take SVB's spot on the S&P 500 index.

The parent firm, SVB Financial Group, is no longer eligible for listing on the S&P 500 after authorities interfered and shut down Silicon Valley Bank. As a result, the bank dropped from the index before the markets opened on Wednesday, and Insulet took its place.

Insulet's inclusion in the S&P 500 comes just a few weeks after the company announced its highest-ever annual revenues, beating last year's record. The manufacturer of diabetes technology made $1.3 billion overall in 2022, an increase of more than 18% from the previous year.

The stock price rose sharply after news that Insulet would replace SVB on the S&P 500. Moreover, the S&P 500 performed better than anticipated.

S&P500 Intraday Technical Levels

Support      Resistance

3808.07       3904.26

3760.37       3952.75

3711.88       4000.45

Pivot Point: 3856.56

S&P500 – Technical Outlook

The S&P 500 (SPX) has encountered a hurdle near the $4,060 level, which is reinforced by a 50% Fibonacci retracement mark. As a result, the index has fallen once again from a technical standpoint. Closing candles below this level are indicating a sell zone for SPX, and the "three black crows" pattern in the 4-hour timeframe is contributing to the bearish sentiment among investors.

Currently, the SPX's immediate resistance level is at $4,095, which is supported by a 61.8% Fibonacci correction level on the upside. A bullish breakout above the $4,035 level could lead to further gains towards the $4,200 mark. However, if the support level at $3,930 is broken, the SPX may drop towards the next support level at $3,880.