S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – Sep 29, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The global markets have been gaining momentum and rebounded on Friday, signaling a recovery for major US indices. The S&P 500, a key US stock gauge, turned around on Friday, gaining nearly 0.60% and settling just below $4,300. Although, this was a relief after a more than 5.0% drop from its September peak of around $4,540. Other major indices followed suit, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rising 116 points to $33,666.34 (0.35%), and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surging over 0.80% to $13,201.28.
As we all are well aware, the month of September has been challenging for stocks due to recession and government shutdown concerns, but the pause in selling and Treasury yield hikes allowed for this rebound, ahead of the critical US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index release on Friday.
US Dollar Strength and Federal Reserve Focus
Investors are keeping a close eye on the strength of the US Dollar (USD). Despite lackluster US economic data on Thursday, their primary focus is on the Federal Reserve's efforts to support the USD. Just last week, the central bank cautioned that ongoing inflation in the US could lead to another interest rate hike before the year's end. This highlights the significance of the upcoming US Core PCE Price Index release. It will shape market expectations about the Fed's future actions, influencing demand for the USD and giving new impetus to various currency pairs.
Upcoming US PCE Inflation Measure and Market Expectations
Looking forward, the focus is on the upcoming US PCE inflation measure, expected to hold steady at 0.2% for August. This data is critical as it helps shape market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future moves. The Fed is keenly watching inflation, and its actions can impact the value of the US Dollar (USD) and, in turn, influence the broader financial markets.
S&P500 (SPX) - Technical Analysis
When conducting a technical analysis of the S&P500 for September 29, it's crucial to consider several key factors. The chart timeframe under scrutiny is 4 hours, with the pivot point being established at $4365.
In terms of resistance, there are three primary levels to observe: immediate resistance at $4420, followed by the next resistances at $4519 and $4569.
Conversely, support levels are delineated at $4269, with subsequent support points at $4217 and $4122. Analyzing technical indicators provides deeper insights.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 43, which hints at a slightly bearish sentiment since an RSI value below 50 typically signifies a bearish market stance.
In the MACD readings, a value of 7 and a signal of -26 were recorded. Interestingly, the MACD line's position above its signal line suggests potential bullish momentum.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (50 EMA) is at $4360, and since the price is marginally above this point, a short-term bullish trend can be inferred. Chart patterns further reveal a Fibonacci Retracement, with the 38.2% level pinpointed at $4325.
This level's breach, in either direction, could offer clues about the asset's forthcoming trajectory.
In the short term, it's anticipated that the S&P500 will endeavor to test the resistance stationed at $4420.
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- The S&P500's technical analysis for September 29 indicates a pivot at $4365.
- Key resistances at $4420, $4519, and $4569, and primary supports at $4269, $4217, and $4122.
- Chart patterns reveal a significant 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement at $4325, suggesting potential price movement, with an overall bullish trend expected if the price remains above $4270.
When conducting a technical analysis of the S&P500 for September 29, it's crucial to consider several key factors. The chart timeframe under scrutiny is 4 hours, with the pivot point being established at $4365.
In terms of resistance, there are three primary levels to observe: immediate resistance at $4420, followed by the next resistances at $4519 and $4569.
Conversely, support levels are delineated at $4269, with subsequent support points at $4217 and $4122. Analyzing technical indicators provides deeper insights.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 43, which hints at a slightly bearish sentiment since an RSI value below 50 typically signifies a bearish market stance.
In the MACD readings, a value of 7 and a signal of -26 were recorded. Interestingly, the MACD line's position above its signal line suggests potential bullish momentum.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (50 EMA) is at $4360, and since the price is marginally above this point, a short-term bullish trend can be inferred. Chart patterns further reveal a Fibonacci Retracement, with the 38.2% level pinpointed at $4325.
This level's breach, in either direction, could offer clues about the asset's forthcoming trajectory.
In the short term, it's anticipated that the S&P500 will endeavor to test the resistance stationed at $4420.
S&P500 (SPX) - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Sell Below 4337
Take Profit – 4226
Stop Loss – 4408
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$111/ -$710
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- The S&P 500 has seen a marked 3% decline, currently trading at a significant support level of $4,336, emphasized by a double bottom pattern.
- On the daily chart, two major bearish engulfing candles have emerged, suggesting a strong bearish momentum, with potential support levels at $4,295 and $4,261 if the current support breaks.
- A resistance point is set at $4,377, with a potential to reach $4,440 if surpassed.
The prominent stock market index, the S&P 500, is displaying a pronounced bearish trend, declining by nearly 3% to stand at $4,336. This level serves as a pivotal support, underscored by a double bottom pattern at the same mark.
On the daily chart, the SPX has manifested two significant bearish engulfing candles, indicating a dominant bearish sentiment. Should the SPX breach the $4,336 threshold, it is poised to encounter subsequent support levels at $4,295 and possibly $4,261.
Conversely, the resistance is anchored at $4,377. A surge above this level could pave the way for the SPX to approach $4,440.
S&P500 (SPX) - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Buy Above 4326
Take Profit – 4397
Stop Loss – 4296
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$710/ -$300
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$71/ -$30
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – Sep 22, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The global market is currently showing mixed sentiment with a hint of caution. Asian markets, in particular, are displaying this mixed sentiment with a slightly negative bias. This caution is primarily due to concerns about the US Federal Reserve's recent hawkish stance on interest rate increases. Investors are carefully watching how this might affect the overall trajectory of interest rates, which is contributing to the uncertainty and mixed feelings in the markets.
Market Sentiment Impacted by Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance and Strong USD
It's important to note that the broad-based US Dollar remains strong due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. They have maintained high interest rates, hinting at a potential hike this year and fewer rate cuts in 2024. This has pushed US Treasury bond yields, affecting the market sentiment. Also, an unexpected drop in US weekly jobless claims added to the momentum. However, the Fed's plan to maintain higher rates for an extended duration raises worries regarding its potential impact on the economy.
The news has underminned market sentiment, as investors are concerned about the economic effects of the Federal Reserve's commitment to keeping interest rates high for an extended period.
Global Market Snapshot and Potential Impact on S&P 500
China's SSE Composite Index is up by 0.68% to 3,105, and Shenzhen Component Index has risen by 1.02% to 10,083. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index is at 17,846, showing an increase. However, Tokyo's Nikkei 225 is down by 0.42% at 32,433, and South Korea's Kospi is down by 0.30%. Taiwan's Weighted Index has improved by 0.21%.
In Australia, the ASX 200 is down by 0.14% due to low commodity prices affecting the mining sector. Japan's Nikkei 225 index initially dropped after the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain its dovish monetary policy, disappointing investors anticipating hawkish signals.
In India, the Nifty 50 index has advanced to 19,761, showing a gain of 0.10%. However, caution persists due to rising tensions in the diplomatic dispute between India and Canada, linked to allegations surrounding a Sikh secessionist leader's killing.
Hence, the positive trends in China's and Hong Kong's markets may bolster global sentiment, potentially impacting the S&P 500 positively. Conversely, Japan and South Korea's downturns, along with caution in India, might introduce a hint of uncertainty.
S&P500 (SPX) - Technical Analysis
The prominent stock market index, the S&P 500, is displaying a pronounced bearish trend, declining by nearly 3% to stand at $4,336. This level serves as a pivotal support, underscored by a double bottom pattern at the same mark.
On the daily chart, the SPX has manifested two significant bearish engulfing candles, indicating a dominant bearish sentiment. Should the SPX breach the $4,336 threshold, it is poised to encounter subsequent support levels at $4,295 and possibly $4,261.
Conversely, the resistance is anchored at $4,377. A surge above this level could pave the way for the SPX to approach $4,440.
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- The S&P 500 demonstrates notable fluctuations around the $4,500 point, with technical analysis revealing an upward potential from a pivotal $4,470 support.
- If the index remains above the current threshold, it may face significant resistance at $4,500, further reinforced by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
- The decisive $4,400 support acts as today's turning point; standing above it suggests bullish momentum, while falling below could indicate heightened selling pressure.
Upon scrutinizing the technical nuances of the S&P 500, the index displays volatility around the $4,500 mark. Delving into the four-hour chart, the S&P 500 has staged a comeback from a critical support pegged at $4,470. The candlestick configurations hint at a possible upward trajectory for the index.
Should the S&P 500 sustain above this threshold, it is poised to confront the ensuing formidable resistance near $4,500. Beyond this, another significant resistance coincides with the 61.8% retracement mark, intensified by a 61.8% extension.
On the flip side, if the S&P 500 descends below the $4,470 benchmark, ensuing supports are likely at $4,450 and $4,335. The linchpin remains the pivotal $4,400 support, serving as today's fulcrum. A position above this point insinuates a potential bullish continuation, whereas a breach below might signal augmented selling activity.
S&P500 (SPX) - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Buy Above 4490
Take Profit – 4545
Stop Loss – 4440
Risk to Reward – 1: 1
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$550/ -$500
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$55/ -$50
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – Sep 15, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The global market sentiment remains positive as US equity markets head into the Friday closing session with significant gains. However, this reason for its upward trend can be attributed to the consistent positive US economic data, which shows that the US economy is doing better than expected. Investors are feeling positive and are no longer worried about an economic downturn in the US. They believe that the US economy is strong enough to handle challenges.
This can be witnessed by the positive performance of S&P 500, a key equity index. This renewed confidence is fueling the upward trajectory in the world's largest economy, instilling optimism in markets worldwide. It's worth noting that the S&P 500 made a strong move, reaching $4,500, thanks to positive US producer price index data that showed a 0.7% increase in August.
Positive US Economic Data and Outlook for Upcoming Reports
According to recent US economic data, the outlook is positive. For the week ending September 8, there were 220,000 new jobless claims, slightly better than the previous week's 217,000. In August, the Core Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 2.2%, matching expectations and just below the previous 2.4% increase. Retail sales also improved, rising by 0.6% compared to the previous month's 0.5%, beating the expected 0.2% slowdown. These numbers suggest the US economy is in good shape, which can impact sentiment in the stock market and trading decisions.
Looking forward to Friday's economic calendar in the US, investors are hoping for more positive data. They are keeping an eye on consumer expectations, industrial production, and the NY Empire State manufacturing index. The initial reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to dip slightly from 69.5 to 69.1. Industrial Production for August is predicted to slow down significantly, dropping from 1% to just 0.1%. As for the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, it's expected to improve but still stay in the negative zone, with a forecast of -10 compared to the previous -19. These upcoming numbers will be closely watched by the market.
Positive Economic News and Market Confidence Boost in China
Furthermore, the data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in China brings positive news. In the meantime, the recent decision by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) to cut the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) by 25 basis points (bps) is boosting market confidence. China's Retail Sales (year-on-year) surged by 4.6% in August, surpassing the expected 3.0% increase and improving upon the previous month's 2.5% figure. Moreover, Industrial Production did even better, with a 4.5% growth rate in August, outperforming the estimated 3.7% rise seen in July. These numbers are certainly encouraging for the market.
S&P500 (SPX) - Technical Analysis
Upon scrutinizing the technical nuances of the S&P 500, the index displays volatility around the $4,500 mark. Delving into the four-hour chart, the S&P 500 has staged a comeback from a critical support pegged at $4,470. The candlestick configurations hint at a possible upward trajectory for the index.
Should the S&P 500 sustain above this threshold, it is poised to confront the ensuing formidable resistance near $4,500. Beyond this, another significant resistance coincides with the 61.8% retracement mark, intensified by a 61.8% extension.
On the flip side, if the S&P 500 descends below the $4,470 benchmark, ensuing supports are likely at $4,450 and $4,335. The linchpin remains the pivotal $4,400 support, serving as today's fulcrum. A position above this point insinuates a potential bullish continuation, whereas a breach below might signal augmented selling activity.
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – Sep 08, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The global market sentiment unable to stop its bearish trend and remains negative, thanks to the ongoing worries about the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and issues in China. Notably, the S&P 500 Futures have been declining for four consecutive days, currently sitting at their lowest level in a week at around 4,468.
Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields hover around 4.30%, near the recent high of 4.29%, while the two-year bond yields have dropped from their weekly peak to 5.01%, marking their first daily loss in four days. Hence, the market is facing a bearish trend, with no signs of improvement due to fears of slower economic growth and recession in China.
Moving on, traders are keeping an eye on China's foreign trade data for August and speeches from several Federal Reserve officials. However, worries about economic slowdowns in China, the Eurozone, and the UK are conflicting with concerns about a soft landing in the US. This contrast is maintaining a risk-off sentiment in the market.
Global Economic Concerns Impact Investor Sentiment
It is worth noting that the recently released disappointing Caixin Services PMI in China, coupled with uncertainties surrounding China's stimulus efforts, have heightened concerns about a potential economic downturn in Beijing. Furthermore, escalating tensions between the United States and China regarding trade and Taiwan are further fueling the risk off sentiment in the market.
Meanwhile, the economic reports from the Eurozone and the United Kingdom indicate a downbeat economic outlook. This is making investors even more cautious. Thus, these factors are contributing in risk-off sentiment in the market, with investors opting for lower-risk options.
China's Economic Measures and Global Tensions Impact Investor Confidence
As we all are well aware China has been taking steps to boost its struggling economy after facing challenges during the pandemic. However, they have implemented various policies, and more are expected soon. Nevertheless, investor confidence is still low because of worries about China's weakening economy and the ongoing trade disputes with the United States.
These concerns might reduce the demand for precious metals. In the meantime, the G20 leaders' summit is happening this Saturday in New Delhi. President Joe Biden will attend, but Chinese President Xi Jinping won't be there. This exacerbates the already damaging relationship between the two superpowers countries.
Strong US Economic Data Drives Dollar Confidence
The US Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the US dollar's performance against other major currencies, is hovering around 104.90, near its highest level since April. This is driven by positive news about the US economy, including lower-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims at 216K (compared to an expected 234K) and an increase in Unit Labor Costs to 2.2% for the second quarter, in line with expectations. Thereby, investors expect a more hawkish approach from the US Federal Reserve with expected interest rate hikes of 25 basis points in November and December. This bolstering market sentiment and confidence in the US economy.
S&P500 (SPX) - Technical Analysis
The technical outlook for the S&P 500 presents a captivating picture. While there have been slight variations akin to light rain, the $4400 level captures my focus. A detailed look indicates the 50-day exponential moving average providing solid resistance around $4475.
What stands out is the affirmation from candle closures below this mark, indicating a potential downward trend. Examining the technical metrics, both the relative strength index and the moving average convergence divergence indicators remain stable in the sell zone, hinting chances of a bearish movement.
Furthermore, the S&P 500 showcases the potential to target the $4390 mark. Achieving this could set the stage for the next target at $4350. On the flip side, bullish cross above $4475 might push the index towards the $4500 or $4545 areas. Given these insights, it's wise to stay alert and consider a selling around the $4475 mark for the day.
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- The S&P 500's technicals spotlight the significant $4400 level, with the 50-day exponential moving average marking a key resistance at $4475.
- Technical metrics, including the relative strength index and MACD, currently suggest a bearish inclination as they stabilize in the sell zone.
- While the immediate target for the S&P 500 is set at $4390, a breach above $4475 could shift focus towards $4500 and $4545; sellers should consider the $4475 level as an opportune point.
The technical outlook for the S&P 500 presents a captivating picture. While there have been slight variations akin to light rain, the $4400 level captures my focus. A detailed look indicates the 50-day exponential moving average providing solid resistance around $4475.
What stands out is the affirmation from candle closures below this mark, indicating a potential downward trend. Examining the technical metrics, both the relative strength index and the moving average convergence divergence indicators remain stable in the sell zone, hinting chances of a bearish movement.
Furthermore, the S&P 500 showcases the potential to target the $4390 mark. Achieving this could set the stage for the next target at $4350. On the flip side, bullish cross above $4475 might push the index towards the $4500 or $4545 areas. Given these insights, it's wise to stay alert and consider a selling around the $4475 mark for the day.
S&P500 (SPX) - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Sell Below 4465
Take Profit – 4395
Stop Loss – 4500
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$700/ -$350
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$70/ -$35
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- The S&P 500 displays technical fluctuations around the 4430 mark and has shown resilience with a rebound from the 4350 support level.
- Key levels to monitor include the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 4440, with significant resistances at 4475 and the extended 61.8% retracement level.
- The 4400 level serves as today's pivotal point, determining potential bullish or bearish trends based on the index's position relative to this benchmark.
Upon examining the technical aspects of the S&P 500, it currently indicates fluctuations around the 4430 level. Analyzing the four-hour chart, the S&P 500 has rebounded from a significant support level of 4350. The manner in which the candles have closed suggests that the S&P 500 carries potential upside momentum.
It is nearing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level situated around 4440. Should the S&P 500 maintain its position above this level, it will likely encounter the next significant resistance at approximately 4475. Further upwards, another major resistance aligns with the 61.8% retracement level, amplified by a 61.8% extension. Conversely, if the S&P 500 drops below the 4400 level, subsequent support can be expected at 4450 and 4335.
The pivotal focus remains on the crucial support level of 4400, which is also today's pivot point. A stance above this level indicates a probable continuation of the bullish trend, while a position below may suggest further selling pressure.
S&P500 (SPX) - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Buy Above 4400
Take Profit – 4470
Stop Loss – 4350
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$700/ -$500
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$70/ -$50
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – Aug 29, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The global market sentiment has been up and down recently. At the beginning of the week, things looked positive, but now on early Tuesday, people are becoming more cautious. Traders are trying to figure out if this positive feeling will last, especially because there isn't much important news today in Asia and not many big economic updates.
Currently, the S&P 500 Futures are not showing a clear direction and remains dicey around 4,445 points. This comes after a couple of days of gains. At the same time, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond, which is an important indicator of borrowing costs and market confidence, is staying around 4.19%.
Central Bankers' Challenges and Rate Hike Uncertainty
It's important to mention that central bankers worldwide are facing challenges due to mixed economic data and recession worries. Traders are paying close attention, especially after policymakers discussed their cautious strategies at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week. Jerome Powell, who leads the US Federal Reserve, is considering raising interest rates to control borrowing. However, decisions depend on the economy's performance, creating uncertainty. Another banker, Loretta Mester, suggests raising rates, possibly not immediately in September. Chances of rate increases in November have improved recently according to predictive tools.
Hence, this news has left market sentiment uncertain as central bankers grapple with mixed data and recession concerns. Traders are attentive due to potential rate hikes and economic uncertainties discussed at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Market Impact: Trade Talks, IMF Meeting, and Economic Sentiment
Besides this, there's mixed news about US-China trade talks, and the IMF's leader plans to meet China's leaders. This is making people more cautious about taking risks in the market. China's effort to boost its economy by reducing stock trading costs aligns with the mood at the Jackson Hole Symposium, where no surprising economic decisions were made. As a result, the US dollar is slightly weaker versus other currencies. This news is making the market more cautious due to mixed US-China trade talk updates and the IMF's interest in China. China's economy-boosting move and uneventful Jackson Hole Symposium have slightly weakened the US dollar.
Looking forward, traders will focus on Germany's GfK Consumer Confidence Survey for September, followed by the US Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for August. More importantly, attention will be on the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index for July and August's Nonfarm Payrolls. These indicators will play a significant role in shaping market trends.
S&P500 (SPX) - Technical Analysis
Upon examining the technical aspects of the S&P 500, it currently indicates fluctuations around the 4430 level. Analyzing the four-hour chart, the S&P 500 has rebounded from a significant support level of 4350. The manner in which the candles have closed suggests that the S&P 500 carries potential upside momentum.
It is nearing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level situated around 4440. Should the S&P 500 maintain its position above this level, it will likely encounter the next significant resistance at approximately 4475. Further upwards, another major resistance aligns with the 61.8% retracement level, amplified by a 61.8% extension. Conversely, if the S&P 500 drops below the 4400 level, subsequent support can be expected at 4450 and 4335.
The pivotal focus remains on the crucial support level of 4400, which is also today's pivot point. A stance above this level indicates a probable continuation of the bullish trend, while a position below may suggest further selling pressure.