S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – March 2, 2023

Daily Price Outlook

The S&P500 is currently trading at $3,951.04, representing a 0.47% decrease in the past 24 hours. The decline in the S&P 500 was driven by manufacturing data indicating that inflation may remain persistently high, along with an increase in Treasury rates and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve policymakers, which reinforced a stringent policy stance.

Federal Reserve Officials Suggest Aggressive Hikes in Interest Rates

The latest PMI data from S&P Global indicates a grim outlook for US manufacturing companies. The manufacturing PMI for February came in at 47.7%, which was 0.3% points higher than January's figure of 47.4%.

Despite the data showing the slowest rate of decline in three months, the sector's health has deteriorated as producers of goods struggle.

The ISM survey showed that US manufacturing contracted in February, while raw material costs increased, causing the yield on 10-year notes to rise above 4% for the first time since November. The Dollar index also gained momentum, trading at 104.59.

Investors remain focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory. On Wednesday, Fed officials made statements supporting the idea that the most effective way to combat inflation is through aggressive interest rate hikes.

Moreover, the PMI data suggests that inflationary pressures have resurfaced, indicating that the Fed should not hastily conclude its tightening policy cycle.

How Corporate Earnings Reports Affected the SPX?

In the stock market, Lowe's Companies saw a 6% drop in its share price after it reported fourth-quarter revenue that fell short of Wall Street's expectations. The company also provided annual sales guidance that did not meet the projected figures.

Tesla also garnered attention as it began its investor day, during which the EV maker was expected to present its Master Plan 3 and provide insights into its long-term development strategy.

Snowflake's share price fell 7.3% after the company announced its Q4 earnings of $0.14 per share, falling short of the projected $0.05 on revenue of $589 million compared to the anticipated $576.22 million.

On the other hand, Okta's share price rose 13.7% after the company reported its Q4 earnings per share of $0.30, surpassing the estimated $0.09, and revenue of $510 million compared to the projected $489.79 million.

S&P500 Intraday Technical Levels

Support      Resistance

3978.24       4037.35

3944.16       4062.38

3919.13       4096.46

Pivot Point: 4003.27

S&P500 – Technical Outlook

Technically, the S&P 500 (SPX) is experiencing a bearish trend, having dropped to $3,950 after breaking an upward channel at $4,100. The SPX's current support level is $3,950, supported by a double-bottom pattern. If this support level is broken, the S&P 500 may continue to fall, possibly to $3,885. On the other hand, the S&P 500's resistance level is at $4,000 or $4,075.

Later today, market participants will pay attention to FOMC Member Waller's speech at 9:00 pm.