Daily Price Outlook

Following the recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the nation's unemployment rate for July experienced an uptick, settling at 3.7%, a rise from June's 3.5%. This data revealed a growth in the number of unemployed individuals by 36,000. Additionally, the participation rate, representing the percentage of those aged 15 and older either employed or actively seeking employment, witnessed a slight dip of 0.1 percentage points, closing at 66.7%. This macroeconomic development has cast a shadow over the AUD/USD pair.

Professionally examining the trajectory of the AUD/USD pair, it has adeptly met our anticipated target at 0.6400. Initiating today's trading with a bearish undertone, the pair not only breached the 0.6400 level but also affirmed the dominating bearish trend, hinting at a potential movement towards our forthcoming bearish target set at 0.6310.

Reinforcing this downtrend, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) lends its weight behind the envisaged bearish momentum. However, this sentiment will hold its validity contingent upon the pair's ability to maintain its position below the 0.6400 threshold.

For today's trading landscape, we foresee the pair oscillating within a range, demarcated by the 0.6310 support level and the 0.6420 resistance level.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 0.64003

Take Profit – 0.62815

Stop Loss – 0.64833

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1188/ -$830

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$118/ -$83

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair extended its eighth consecutive day of decline due to disappointing Australian employment data and overall market caution. This led to a 0.39% drop, bringing the pair to 0.6367. The weak jobs data has raised concerns about potential interest rate changes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in their September 5 meeting. Moreover, concerns about China's economy and the hawkish stance of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are further pressuring AUD/USD prices.

Challenging Australian Job Market Data Impacts AUD/USD Pair

According to the recent info from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Australia's job market struggled in July. The Unemployment Rate unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, exceeding both expectations and the previous month's 3.5%. Employment Change was also disappointing, with a loss of 14.6K jobs, in contrast to the anticipated 15K increase and June's 32.6K additions. Detailed data showed a decline of 24.2K Full-Time Employment roles, while Part-Time Employment grew by 9.6K. In response, the AUD/USD pair declined by 0.39% to trade at 0.6367, indicating concerns about future decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

Hawkish FOMC Minutes and Positive US Data Weigh on AUD/USD

Furthermore, the recent hawkish tone from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes is also putting pressure on the AUD/USD prices. The minutes showed that even though some policymakers disagreed, most of them leaned towards dealing with the rising prices. This has added to the concerns affecting the AUD/USD.s

In the meantime, positive data from the US and higher returns on US Treasury bonds are also affecting the AUD/USD negatively. For example, the US Industrial Production surprised everyone by growing 1.0% in July, much more than expected. This, along with better Capacity Utilization, Building Permits, and Housing Starts numbers, has strengthened the US Dollar, making it tougher for the AUD/USD pair.

Multiple Concerns Impact AUD/USD Amid Global Developments

Apart from this, concerns are rising due to a drop in China's housing prices since June. This adds to worries about a potential bond market issue in China as a major real estate company, Country Garden, faces difficulties in paying its bond debts. Despite efforts from Chinese policymakers to reassure the economy, market response has been limited, raising concerns about China's economic health. This is putting pressure on the AUD/USD price.

Adding to the negative sentiment is the fact that Fitch Ratings, a global rating agency, lowered economic growth expectations for 10 developed countries, which is also contributing to the downward movement of the AUD/USD price.

AUD/USD - Technical analysis

Following the recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the nation's unemployment rate for July experienced an uptick, settling at 3.7%, a rise from June's 3.5%. This data revealed a growth in the number of unemployed individuals by 36,000. Additionally, the participation rate, representing the percentage of those aged 15 and older either employed or actively seeking employment, witnessed a slight dip of 0.1 percentage points, closing at 66.7%. This macroeconomic development has cast a shadow over the AUD/USD pair.

Professionally examining the trajectory of the AUD/USD pair, it has adeptly met our anticipated target at 0.6400. Initiating today's trading with a bearish undertone, the pair not only breached the 0.6400 level but also affirmed the dominating bearish trend, hinting at a potential movement towards our forthcoming bearish target set at 0.6310.

Reinforcing this downtrend, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) lends its weight behind the envisaged bearish momentum. However, this sentiment will hold its validity contingent upon the pair's ability to maintain its position below the 0.6400 threshold.

For today's trading landscape, we foresee the pair oscillating within a range, demarcated by the 0.6310 support level and the 0.6420 resistance level.

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair demonstrates an increased bearish inclination, nearing our projected target of 0.6040. We anticipate sustained downward momentum that might breach the stated level, setting the stage for further declines, potentially towards the 0.6310 mark.

Given these factors, a bearish trajectory is projected for both intraday and short-term intervals, underpinned by the negative influence of the EMA50. It's imperative to note that maintaining a position below 0.6550 is crucial to perpetuate the predicted bearish trend.

Today, the forecasted trading bracket spans from a support at 0.6380 to a resistance at 0.6490.  

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 0.64604

Take Profit – 0.64138

Stop Loss – 0.64920

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.45

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$466/ -$316

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$46/ -$31

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair closed beneath the 0.6550 benchmark yesterday, further solidifying the forecasted bearish trajectory for the imminent timeframe, with an eye on the 0.6400 mark as the subsequent pivotal target.

The prevailing bullish undertone, as indicated by the Stochastic's upbeat momentum, necessitates the pair to remain under the 0.6550 and 0.6600 thresholds to ensure the continuation of the anticipated bearish momentum. Surpassing these benchmarks could act as a catalyst for the pair's resurgence, initiating a potential rally towards the significant resistance set at 0.6665.

For today, the anticipated trading spectrum is projected to span from a support level of 0.6490 to a resistance of 0.6590. The day's overarching trend is expected to be bullish.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 0.65281

Take Profit – 0.66089

Stop Loss – 0.64763

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$808/ -$518

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$80/ -$51

Daily Price Outlook

Regarding 0.6457, the intraday sentiment is again skewed downwards. Following the breach, the descent from 0.7156 to the 100% projection level of 0.6457 from 0.6894 to 0.6195 will persist. As long as resistance remains at 0.6738, any potential recovery will maintain a slight downward risk for the immediate future.

During the Asian trading session on Wednesday morning, the AUD/USD pair remains subdued at 0.6555. Reports concerning the US-China relationship continue to strengthen the prevailing inclination towards purchasing US Dollars.

However, it's worth noting that the US government intends to focus solely on Chinese businesses generating over 50% of their revenue from quantum computing and artificial intelligence (AI). According to Bloomberg, an executive order by US President Joe Biden regarding this ban is expected this week.

Recent developments between the world's two largest economies might benefit the Australian Dollar (AUD) acting as a liaison for China while adversely affecting the AUD/USD pair.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair closed beneath the 0.6550 benchmark yesterday, further solidifying the forecasted bearish trajectory for the imminent timeframe, with an eye on the 0.6400 mark as the subsequent pivotal target.

The prevailing bullish undertone, as indicated by the Stochastic's upbeat momentum, necessitates the pair to remain under the 0.6550 and 0.6600 thresholds to ensure the continuation of the anticipated bearish momentum. Surpassing these benchmarks could act as a catalyst for the pair's resurgence, initiating a potential rally towards the significant resistance set at 0.6665.

For today, the anticipated trading spectrum is projected to span from a support level of 0.6490 to a resistance of 0.6590. The day's overarching trend is expected to be bullish.

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair made a valiant attempt to break through the 0.6550 level but encountered robust support, leading to a momentary wavering just above it. Meanwhile, the Stochastic indicator has climbed to overbought levels, fueling speculation of a potential return to negative trading and a possible breach of the aforementioned support, which could then open the path towards 0.6400 as the next significant target.

As the battle between bulls and bears unfolds, the dominant outlook points towards a continued downward trend in the intraday and short-term levels. However, if the 0.6550 level manages to hold firm against negative pressure, it could effectively halt the bearish scenario and propel the price higher, introducing a twist to the narrative.

Market participants are bracing themselves for today's trading, anticipating a range between the support level of 0.6500 and the resistance level of 0.6600. The tension rises as we eagerly await the outcome of this exciting market dynamic!

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Limit 0.65990

Take Profit – 0.65148

Stop Loss – 0.66831

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$842/ -$841

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$84/ -$84

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair initially showed signs of a bullish trend, but it could not sustain the momentum and experienced a significant drop after encountering strong resistance near 0.6590 during the European session. However, the decline was primarily driven by a major rebound in the US Dollar Index (DXY) as traders eagerly awaited the release of the United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data at 12:30 GMT.

The NFP report is highly anticipated and could have a major impact on the movement of the currency pair. As a result, the market sentiment is cautious, with investors exercising caution and refraining from making bold moves until the crucial economic data is unveiled.

Impact of US Market Developments on AUD/USD Currency Pair

The AUD/USD currency pair could be influenced by recent developments in the US markets. However, the significant gains in S&P500 futures and the rebound of the US Dollar Index (DXY) around 102.40 indicate strength in US equities and a hopeful sentiment ahead of the labor market report. Thereby, the positive US labor market data may lead to concerns among Federal Reserve policymakers, potentially triggering a recovery in inflationary pressures.

Consequently, the AUD/USD pair might face pressure as the US Dollar strengthens, possibly resulting in a decline in its value. Traders must closely monitor US labor market data and its impact on inflation, as these factors could significantly influence the AUD/USD pair's short-term movement.

RBA Minutes and Inflation Target Weigh on AUD/USD Pair

Despite the recent release of less-hawkish RBA minutes from August, the Australian Dollar failed to gain support. The RBA policymakers expressed the possibility of further tightening due to inflation moving towards the 2% target by late 2025. This cautious stance could limit the Aussie's upward momentum, potentially putting downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair as investors reevaluate their expectations for the RBA's monetary policy outlook.

Thereby, traders need to closely monitor any updates in the RBA's stance and its impact on inflation to better understand the potential direction of the AUD/USD pair in the short term.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair made a valiant attempt to break through the 0.6550 level but encountered robust support, leading to a momentary wavering just above it. Meanwhile, the Stochastic indicator has climbed to overbought levels, fueling speculation of a potential return to negative trading and a possible breach of the aforementioned support, which could then open the path towards 0.6400 as the next significant target.

As the battle between bulls and bears unfolds, the dominant outlook points towards a continued downward trend in the intraday and short-term levels. However, if the 0.6550 level manages to hold firm against negative pressure, it could effectively halt the bearish scenario and propel the price higher, introducing a twist to the narrative.

Market participants are bracing themselves for today's trading, anticipating a range between the support level of 0.6500 and the resistance level of 0.6600. The tension rises as we eagerly await the outcome of this exciting market dynamic!

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair faced a brief dip below the 0.6665 level but has since shown signs of recovery, prompting a positive start to the day and signaling a potential bullish bias in the upcoming sessions. The pair is expected to aim for the 0.6780 level in the short term.

The bullish trend is supported by the positive stance of the stochastic indicator. However, it is crucial to monitor the 0.6665 level, as a break below it and sustained trading below this point could halt the anticipated rise and lead to further losses.

For today's trading, the projected range is expected to be between the support level at 0.6630 and the resistance level at 0.6750.

Overall, the outlook suggests a bullish trend for today's session, but cautious observation of key levels is essential in navigating potential market movements.

 AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Limit 0.66563

Take Profit – 0.67218

Stop Loss – 0.66145

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.57

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$655/ -$418

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$65/ -$41

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair recovers from recent losses, breaking a three-day losing streak. The US GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditure data had put pressure on the Australian dollar, but positive developments in China's motivation plan provide momentum.

Market participants are eagerly awaiting the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Interest Rate Decision on Tuesday for further direction. Currently, the pair is up 0.48% for the day, trading near 0.6681.

Contrary to the market forecast of 3.1%, the Personal Consumption Expenses (PCE) Price Index for June declined to 3% from May's 3.8%. The Core PCE Price Index, a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, came in at 4.1% annually, lower than the projected 4.2% and down from 4.6% in May.

Additionally, China's State Council Information Office announces that Li Chunlin, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, will hold a press conference with other representatives to announce measures to boost consumption.

This development could support the Australian Dollar (AUD), acting as a broker for China, and contribute to increased household demand amid a slow post-COVID recovery.

The AUD/USD pair's recovery is approaching the 0.6700 level, driven by stimulus hopes and overlooking mixed China PMI and Aussie inflation clues. On Monday, the pair recorded its first daily gains in four days, rebounding from three-week lows and trading slightly higher around 0.6670.

Positive cues from China's official activity statistics and Australian inflation signals are influencing the market's slightly positive sentiment and the decline of the US Dollar.

Despite China's official NBS Manufacturing PMI rising to 49.3, Non-Manufacturing PMI declined to 51.5.

Australia's TD Securities Inflation increased in July from 0.1% to 0.8% MoM, but annual statistics decreased from 5.7% in June to 5.4% in July. In contrast, Australia's Private Sector Credit in June eased to 0.2% and 5.5% on a MoM and YoY basis, respectively, down from 0.4% and 6.2% in May.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair faced a brief dip below the 0.6665 level but has since shown signs of recovery, prompting a positive start to the day and signaling a potential bullish bias in the upcoming sessions. The pair is expected to aim for the 0.6780 level in the short term.

The bullish trend is supported by the positive stance of the stochastic indicator. However, it is crucial to monitor the 0.6665 level, as a break below it and sustained trading below this point could halt the anticipated rise and lead to further losses.

For today's trading, the projected range is expected to be between the support level at 0.6630 and the resistance level at 0.6750.

Overall, the outlook suggests a bullish trend for today's session, but cautious observation of key levels is essential in navigating potential market movements.

Daily Price Outlook

On Wednesday, AUD/USD pair is declining by -0.24% at 0.6773. It has lost about half of its previous daily gains. The declining prices of the AUD/USD pair are driven by weaker Australian inflation figures, a stronger USD supported by positive US economic data, and uncertainty surrounding the Fed's policy outlook. Traders should closely monitor these factors for potential shifts in the AUD/USD pair's direction.

Australian consumer inflation figures, with the headline CPI falling short of expectations at 0.8% in the Q2 and the annual rate decelerating to 6.2%, suggest a weaker economy. This, in turn, raises the possibility of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) pausing future rate hikes, leading to a weakened Australian Dollar.

Simultaneously, the US Dollar is also under pressure today after reaching two-week high yesterday supported by positive US macro data that reflects a resilient economy. Upbeat US consumer confidence data fueled optimism that the US may avoid a recession this year. However, the weak performance of USD ahead of FOMC is keeping check on AUD/USD losses for today.

Following the potential upcoming 25 bps lift-off during the two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting, investors have discounted the likelihood of any further interest rate hikes. Yet, there is skepticism regarding the Fed's commitment to a more dovish approach. 

Hence, market attention will be fixed on the accompanying monetary policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference remarks. These will be closely analyzed for hints about the future rate-hike trajectory, influencing the greenback prices and providing new direction to the AUD/USD pair. 

However, there are factors limiting further losses for the AUD/USD pair. Hopes for more stimulus measures from China are bolstering global equity markets, which, in turn, restricts gains for the safe-haven USD and provides some support to the risk-sensitive AUD.

AUD/USD - Technical analysis

The AUD/USD pair started the day with evident bearish sentiment, attempting to distance itself from the 0.6780 level. This reinforces the expectation of a continued bearish trend in the upcoming sessions, with the next main target anticipated at 0.6665.

The impact of the double top pattern remains in effect, further supporting the likelihood of reaching the awaited targets.

Additionally, the technical indicators are currently showing negative signals. It is important to note that a breach of the 0.6780 level would halt the expected decline and potentially lead to a price increase.

Traders will closely monitor the FOMC and Fed rate decision, which could significantly impact the AUD/USD pair's movement.

For today, the projected trading range is between the support level at 0.6700 and the resistance level at 0.6810.