Daily Price Outlook

• AUD/USD has shown a bullish run, breaking above the 0.6585 resistance level.
• A bullish engulfing candlestick pattern suggests strong momentum and bullish sentiment.
• Target levels for further upward movement are 0.6640 and 0.6675.

The AUD/USD currency pair has experienced a bullish run, breaking above the key resistance level at 0.6585. On the four-hour timeframe, a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern has formed, indicating strong upward momentum and bullish sentiment towards the AUD/USD price.

Currently, it is trading around the 0.6612 level, with a high likelihood of continued upward movement towards the 0.6640 or 0.6675 levels. On the downside, immediate support is expected around the 0.6585 level, followed by potential support at 0.6550 or 0.6500 levels.

The 50-day exponential moving average, relative strength index (RSI), and moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicators all suggest a balanced outlook for the currency pair. Therefore, it is important to monitor the 0.6585 level, as a successful break above it could lead to further upward momentum.

Additionally, keep an eye on the upcoming US unemployment figures, particularly the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) and unemployment rate, as they have the potential to influence additional price movements.

AUD/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD – Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 0.65986

Stop Loss – 0.65452

Take Profit – 0.66726

Risk to Reward – 1 : 1.92

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$740/ -$534

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$74/ -$53

Daily Price Outlook

During the early European session, the AUD/USD pair is declining towards the psychological support level of 0.6500. The Australian currency is facing significant selling pressure due to the US Dollar Index (DXY) reaching a new 10-week high at 104.45. This is driven by expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) continuing to raise interest rates to address persistent inflation in the United States.

Investors are cautious about the trading day on Tuesday, following a long weekend, leading to a reduction in gains made in the Asian session for S&P 500 futures. The anticipation of another interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve has created a sense of caution in the market.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has regained its 10-week high as investors shift their focus from the US debt ceiling issue to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy meeting in June.

The announcement of an increase in the US borrowing cap by the White House has put pressure on US Treasury yields, causing the 10-year US government bond yields to drop below 3.77%.

The release of US employment data this week will serve as a basis for the Federal Reserve’s decision on monetary policy in June.

The first employment statistic, US JOLTS Job Openings data, will be released on Wednesday. It is expected to show a decline to 9.35 million from the previous release of 9.59 million, indicating a slowdown in hiring by businesses due to a less optimistic economic outlook. The May employment change data from US Automatic Data Processing (ADP) will also be discussed.

According to estimates, the US economy added 170,000 new jobs in May, compared to the previous month’s addition of 269,000. The Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) data, to be released at the end of the week, will be crucial in assessing the labor market’s performance.

AUD/USD – Technical Outlook

The AUD/USD pair is currently experiencing a significant bearish sentiment near the 0.6515 level. The selling pressure intensified when the pair was unable to surpass the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which acted as a strong resistance around 0.6555. The candlestick patterns closing below this level indicate a potential continuation of the downtrend in the Australian dollar.

On the four-hour timeframe, the RSI is below 50, indicating a bearish bias, while the MACD is showing smaller histograms compared to previous ones, suggesting a strong selling pressure in the AUD/USD pair.

Moreover, the 50-day moving average is acting as a resistance around the 0.6520 level, and the candlestick closing below this moving average supports the possibility of further bearish continuation.

Consequently, the outlook for the AUD/USD currency pair today is bearish. It is important to monitor the 0.6530 level and consider short positions with a target around the 0.6489 level.

Daily Trading Signal

• The AUD/USD currency pair is experiencing a strong bearish sentiment around the 0.6515 level.
• Failure to break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level suggests a continuation of the downtrend.
• Technical indicators like RSI and MACD indicate a bearish bias, supporting the idea of a downward movement in AUD/USD.

The AUD/USD currency pair is currently exhibiting a strong bearish sentiment around the 0.6515 level. The selling pressure intensified after the pair failed to break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which acted as a solid resistance at around 0.6555. The candlestick patterns closing below this level suggest a potential continuation of the downtrend in the Australian dollar.

On the four-hour timeframe, the RSI is below the 50 level, indicating a bearish bias, while the MACD is forming smaller histograms compared to the previous ones, signaling a strong selling pressure in the AUD/USD pair.

Furthermore, the 50-day moving average is acting as resistance around the 0.6520 level, and the candlestick closing below this moving average supports the possibility of further bearish continuation.

Therefore, the outlook for the AUD/USD currency pair today is bearish. It is important to monitor the 0.6530 level and consider short positions targeting the 0.6489 level.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 0.65260

Stop Loss– 0.65599

Take Profit – 0.64901

Risk to Reward – 1 : 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$359/ -$339

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$35/ -$33

Daily Price Outlook

• AUD/USD finds support around 0.6490 level, trading at 0.6520.
• Bullish inside bar pattern formed on the four-hour timeframe, indicating a potential reversal.
• Targeting 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6530, with further upside if resistance at 0.6555 is breached.

During the Asian session, the AUD/USD currency pair found support near the 0.6490 level and is currently trading around 0.6520. On the four-hour timeframe, a bullish inside bar pattern formed, characterized by a hammer candle followed by a strong bullish candle. This suggests a potential reversal from the previous bearish trend, with bullish momentum building.

The pair could experience a modest bullish movement, targeting the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6530. Further upside may be expected if the pair breaks above the resistance level at 0.6555, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. A breakthrough of the 0.6550 level could lead to the next target at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around 0.6599.

However, if the pair violates the support level at 0.6490, it could decline towards the next support level at 0.6453. In summary, the 0.6490 level is likely to play a significant role as a pivot today, and traders should closely monitor for potential bullish retracement opportunities.

AUD/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 0.64895

Stop Loss – 0.64614

Take Profit – 0.65550

Risk to Reward – 1 : 2.33

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$655/ -$281

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$655/ -$28

Daily Price Outlook

As it bounces back from the yearly low of 0.6515 ahead of Friday’s European session, AUD/USD registers its first daily gain in four days. The Australian dollar supports the weakening US dollar while largely disregarding the unfavorable Australian economic data.

In April, retail sales growth in Australia remained at 0.0%, falling short of market expectations of 0.2% and the previous month’s 0.4% growth.

After releasing these statistics, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin remarked, “The Fed is in a test-and-learn situation to decide how slowing demand lowers inflation.” Meanwhile, Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins suggested that the Federal Reserve might be approaching where it should halt its interest rate hikes.

Asia-Pacific stocks exhibit slight gains in the current market environment, while US stock futures indicate minor losses. Additionally, US Treasury bond yields are retracing from their multi-day highs.

Despite Australia’s sluggish retail sales figures, AUD/USD remains relatively stable around the 0.6500 level. The Australian Bureau of Statistics released April’s monthly retail sales data, which showed no change.

While there was a previous increase of 0.4%, market expectations were for a 0.2% growth. The lackluster consumer demand will likely steer the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) towards adopting a neutral stance on interest rates at its upcoming monetary policy meeting in June.

In a surprising move, RBA Governor Philip Lowe raised interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.85% during the May monetary policy meeting. The RBA believed the existing monetary policy measures were not sufficiently restrictive to control inflation.

According to Reuters, Boston Fed Bank President Susan Collins suggested on Thursday that the Federal Reserve “may be at or near” where it should halt its interest rate increases. She noted that while inflation levels remained elevated, there were encouraging signs of restraint.

AUD/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD – Technical Outlook

During the Asian trading session, the AUD/USD pair received support near the 0.6490 level and is currently trading around 0.6520. On the four-hour timeframe, a bullish pattern known as an inside bar has formed, characterized by a hammer candle followed by a strong bullish candle. This suggests a potential reversal from the previous bearish trend and the emergence of bullish momentum.

The pair may experience a moderate upward movement, targeting the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6530. If the pair manages to break above the resistance level at 0.6555, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, further upside potential could be expected. A breakthrough of the 0.6550 level could lead to the next target at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around 0.6599.

However, if the pair violates the support level at 0.6490, it could decline towards the next support level at 0.6453. In summary, the 0.6490 level is likely to play a significant role as a pivot today, and traders should carefully monitor the price action for potential opportunities to capitalize on a bullish retracement.

Daily Price Outlook

Looking ahead, the AUD/USD currency pair is expected to face downward pressure as the market sentiment leans towards risk-off. This cautious outlook follows the release of US Retail Sales data for April.

It is noteworthy that the market anticipates a positive reading of 0.7% month-on-month, in contrast to the previous negative reading of -0.6%. Therefore, the outcome of these figures is likely to have an impact on the performance of the AUD/USD pair.

Additionally, investors will closely monitor the talks between US President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy, aimed at avoiding a potential debt default. Any developments that alleviate concerns regarding the US debt ceiling could potentially ease downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair.

Furthermore, attention will be focused on Australia's economic indicators. The release of the Wage Price Index for Q1 and employment figures for April, scheduled for Wednesday, will provide additional trading opportunities for AUD/USD pair traders.

These data points will offer insights into the health of the Australian economy and could influence the performance of the currency pair.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD – Technical Outlook

The AUD/USD pair has successfully surpassed the 0.6665 level and established a position above it, indicating a potential formation of an intraday bullish wave. However, it is important to note that the EMA50 has acted as a significant resistance level at 0.6705. Additionally, the stochastic indicator is currently showing clear negative signals.

Considering these factors, we maintain the view that there is a valid possibility for the bearish wave to resume in the upcoming period. To provide further confirmation of the continuation of the bearish bias, it is necessary for the price to break below 0.6665.

This would pave the way for the pair to target the 0.6550 area as the next major objective. It is worth mentioning that a breach of the resistance at 0.6705 would invalidate the suggested decline and open the potential for additional gains, potentially reaching 0.6780.

For today's trading range, we anticipate support at 0.6610 and resistance at 0.6725. Therefore, our forecast for today is bearish.

Related:

    * GOLD Price Analysis – May 16, 2023

    * EUR/USD Price Analysis – May 16, 2023

    * AUD/USD Price Analysis – May 12, 2023

Daily Price Outlook

    * The AUD/USD pair has surpassed the 0.6665 level, suggesting the possibility of an intraday bullish wave. However, resistance is observed at 0.6705, and the stochastic indicator shows negative signals.

    * There is a valid chance for the bearish wave to resume if the price breaks below 0.6665, with a target around 0.6550. A breach of the resistance at 0.6705 would invalidate the decline and potentially lead to additional gains.

    * Today's trading range is expected to have support at 0.6610 and resistance at 0.6725. Based on this, our forecast for today remains bearish.

The AUD/USD pair has successfully surpassed the 0.6665 level and established a position above it, indicating a potential formation of an intraday bullish wave. However, it is important to note that the EMA50 has acted as a significant resistance level at 0.6705. Additionally, the stochastic indicator is currently showing clear negative signals.

Considering these factors, we maintain the view that there is a valid possibility for the bearish wave to resume in the upcoming period. To provide further confirmation of the continuation of the bearish bias, it is necessary for the price to break below 0.6665.

This would pave the way for the pair to target the 0.6550 area as the next major objective. It is worth mentioning that a breach of the resistance at 0.6705 would invalidate the suggested decline and open the potential for additional gains, potentially reaching 0.6780.

For today's trading range, we anticipate support at 0.6610 and resistance at 0.6725. Therefore, our forecast for today is bearish.

AUD/USD Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 0.6710

Stop Loss – 0.6740

Take Profit – 0.6638

Risk to Reward – 1 : 1.50

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$736/ -$489

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$73/ -$48

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair remained relatively unchanged in Tokyo, hovering around the 0.6700 level after reaching its lowest point during the US session. Price increases in the US were slower than anticipated, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for April showing a monthly gain of 0.2% and an annual growth rate of 2.3% YoY.

Gasoline costs rose less rapidly than expected, while food prices declined. Core prices, excluding volatile components, increased by 3.4% YoY, indicating consistent price pressures in core services, as noted by analysts at ANZ Bank.

In other news, there was a notable rise in new unemployment claims in the US, and April witnessed a slight uptick in producer prices. US Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims exceeded forecasts, increasing by 22,000 to reach 264,000, signaling a weaker labor market. ANZ Bank analysts highlighted that the Western Australian budget for 2022-2023 anticipates AUD 4.2 billion, aligning with the forecast of the federal budget. However, this represents an AUD 1.8 billion increase compared to the previous projections.

The surplus is smaller due to additional costs associated with providing cost-of-living support and investing in frontline service delivery in sectors such as health, education, and disability services. The state treasury forecasts a smaller net working surplus of AUD 3.3 billion in 2023-24, which is AUD 1 billion lower than the mid-year update.

From a trading perspective, concerns regarding modest global economic indicators contributed to currency depreciation against the US dollar, driven by increased risk aversion. Friday's trading session may experience heightened volatility due to liquidity considerations. In Asia, the dollar's strength is expected to persist, although some retracements may occur given the day of the week.

Traders will also be attentive to monetary data announcements and speeches by members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Pill.

AUD/USD – Technical Outlook

The AUDUSD pair made an unsuccessful attempt to surpass the 0.6780 level and experienced a strong downward move, resuming its bearish correctional trend. Currently, it is approaching the 0.6665 level, and if this level is broken, it may further decline towards the 0.6550 region in the near term.

As a result, we anticipate the continuation of the bearish trend in the upcoming sessions. However, if the price manages to consolidate above the 0.6665 level despite the prevailing negative pressure, it could initiate new recovery attempts aiming to test the 0.6780 level once again.

For today's trading, we expect the price to move within a range of support at 0.6610 and resistance at 0.6730.

Happy trading!

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    * BTC/USD Price Analysis – May 12, 2023

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Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair continues its upward trend for the sixth consecutive day, touching a three-week high near 0.6785 early Monday in Europe. In the process, the Australian dollar follows the 100-day moving average (DMA) within a rising trend channel, with various levels observed since March.

With positive MACD signals and a favorable RSI (14) line that isn't overbought, AUD/USD buyers are likely to surpass the primary barrier at 0.6790, which encompasses the 100-day moving average.

However, overbought conditions at the 0.6800 round figure and the upper line of the mentioned bullish channel, currently around 0.6810, may present a challenge for AUD/USD bulls later on.

If the Aussie pair buyers maintain momentum beyond 0.6810, 0.6855, and 0.6900, they will test the pair buyers before approaching the mid-February peak near 0.7030.

The highlighted channel's lower line around 0.6600 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 0.6545, also known as the golden Fibonacci ratio, could then challenge the Aussie pair sellers before granting them control.

In summary, the AUD/USD remains on the bulls' radar, although the uptrend faces some obstacles.

During the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair revisited its daily high of 0.6770. The Australian dollar's positive inclination is a consequence of multiple headwinds facing the US dollar. Concerns about US banking uncertainties, delays surrounding the debt ceiling situation, and disappointing nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data are hindering the US dollar's rebound.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to decline, with expectations that it will test the previous week's low of around 101.00. US President Joe Biden has been criticized for addressing the debt ceiling with Republicans so late, as the US Treasury Department fears it will run out of funds by early June and be unable to fulfill its payment obligations. This would not only tarnish the US economy's outlook but also result in millions of job losses and a considerable decline in economic activity.

Investors are awaiting the release of Australia's quarterly retail sales figures. Preliminary data suggests that quarterly retail sales will fall by 0.4%, compared to the previous decline of 0.2%. Consequently, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may maintain stable interest rates, as decreasing retail sales do not support policy tightening.

AUD/USD – Technical Outlook

The AUD/USD pair has successfully broken through the bearish channel's resistance and is approaching our initial optimistic target at 0.6780. We could see further gains up to the 0.6925 area if it surpasses this level.

As a result, we expect the bullish trend to continue for the time being but keep in mind that if the pair fails to break through as anticipated, the price might bounce back and head toward the 0.6665 level for a test. Today's predicted trading range is between 0.6720 support and 0.6830 resistance.

    * Related:

    *   [GOLD Price Analysis – May 08, 2023](/articles/gold-price-analysis-may-08-2023/)
  
  
    *   [EUR/USD Price Analysis – May 08, 2023](/articles/eur-usd-price-analysis-may-08-2023/)
  
  
    *   [AUD/USD Price Analysis – May 02, 2023](/articles/aud-usdprice-analysis-may-02-2023/)

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair hit a peak of 0.6667 but could not maintain half of its intraday gains and eventually settled around the 0.6630 price range by the end of the day. In the Asian trading session, the pair traded steadily around this price.

The Australian dollar benefited from the positive performance of Wall Street, where the US indexes rose due to better-than-expected American data and JP Morgan's announcement of taking over the failing First Republic Bank.

https://twitter.com/rshforex/status/1508582528671703050?s=20

Although macroeconomic data from Australia earlier in the day did not support the Australian dollar, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI printing at 48 in April, down from the 48.1 recorded in March, and the April TD Securities inflation rate was 6.15 YoY, up from the previous 5.7%, the AUD/USD still rose due to Wall Street's strong performance, driven by better-than-expected American data and JP Morgan's acquisition of the struggling First Republic Bank. However, the AUD/USD lost momentum as US dollar demand increased.

https://twitter.com/MacrobondF/status/1300816463788486664?s=20

During its May meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board voted to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 0.25% to 3.85%. However, the market had anticipated the RBA's lack of action, indicating a strong reaction to the central bank's unexpected move.

https://twitter.com/NewtonMark/status/1653314704222343170?s=20

In reaction to the recent hawkish move of the Australian central bank, the AUD/USD pair has risen by approximately 60 points, reaching 0.6684. This marks the third consecutive trading day that the pair has traded higher.

https://twitter.com/PicassoCharts/status/1577147338182651904?s=20

The RBA Raises Official Cash Rate by 0.25% in May

When the Reserve Bank of Australia announces its interest rate decision, it can have a bullish effect on the AUD if interest rates are raised and the economy's inflation potential is acknowledged.

Conversely, it is considered bearish or negative if the RBA has a dovish outlook on the Australian economy and supports the current interest rate or lowers it.

https://twitter.com/Noisynanawarat1/status/1653257339942866944?s=20

The attention shifts toward the AUD/USD pair, as Duncan Cooper examines the market conditions and presents a detailed analysis of potential trading prospects. Emphasizing the significance of technical analysis and market perspective, he evaluates crucial support and resistance levels.

AUD/USD – Technical Outlook

From a technical perspective, examining the four-hour timeframe, the AUD/USD currency pair has formed a significant bullish engulfing candle, breaking through the 0.6664 resistance level and now targeting the next level at 0.6760. Simultaneously, a downward trendline is providing major support around the 0.6705 level.

As a result, the AUD/USD may experience a bearish correction until it reaches 0.6664. Closing above this level would signal an opportunity to open a long position in AUD/USD. Prior to that, a stop-loss should be placed around the 0.6620 level, while the upside targets could be around 0.6760 or 0.6795.