Daily Trade Ideas

AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 27, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

- Buy Entry: Above $0.67614, targeting $0.67957.

- Immediate Resistance: $0.6796, with further targets at $0.6816 and $0.6837.

- RSI at 55: Indicates a slight bullish bias, with room for further gains.

The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at $0.67752, up 0.18% on the day, signaling a modest bullish trend.

The pivot point to watch is $0.6761. If prices stay above this level, the pair could continue its upward momentum, with immediate resistance at $0.6796, followed by $0.6816 and $0.6837.

A break above these levels could further solidify the bullish trend, with the potential to test higher levels in the short term.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $0.6740, with additional support levels at $0.6717 and $0.6696, providing a cushion for any pullbacks.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently at $0.6752, is serving as a crucial support level. As long as the AUD/USD remains above this EMA, the outlook remains positive, with the trend likely to stay bullish.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 55, indicating that the market is leaning towards bullish territory but isn't overbought, leaving room for further upside.

In summary, the technical indicators suggest that buying interest will likely strengthen if the pair remains above the pivot point at $0.6761.

Traders should consider entering long positions above $0.67614, targeting $0.67957, with a stop loss set at $0.67432 to manage risk. However, a drop below $0.6740 could signal a potential shift towards a bearish trend.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 0.67614

Take Profit – 0.67957

Stop Loss – 0.67432

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$343/ -$182

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$34/ -$18

AUD/USD

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Price Analysis – Aug 27, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 27, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair maintained a bullish stance and remained well bid around the 0.6782 level, reaching an intra-day high of 0.6792.

This upward momentum was supported by upbeat market sentiment, which bolstered riskier assets like the Australian dollar (AUD).

However, the market sentiment gained traction as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to start cutting interest rates in September.

This optimism is reflected in the S&P 500 futures, which have shown solid gains during European trading hours.

On the other side, the upticks in the currency pair could be short-lived as investors await the release of Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July on Wednesday. However, the annual inflation rate is expected to slow to 3.4% from the previous 3.8%.

Thus, the drop in inflation could lead to speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may not cut interest rates this year.

Expected CPI Slowdown Could Boost AUD/USD as RBA Rate Cuts Seem Unlikely

On the AUD front, the Australian dollar's rally has slowed as investors turn their attention to the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, which is due out on Wednesday.

The focus is on how this data might influence the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) future decisions.

On the data front, inflation is expected to have slowed to 3.4% annually, down from 3.8% previously.

If inflation does indeed decrease, it could lead to speculation that the RBA will hold off on cutting interest rates this year, which might support the Australian dollar.

The market is closely watching to see how this data will shape the RBA's next moves and impact the AUD's performance.

Therefore, the expected slowdown in inflation may support the AUD/USD pair by reducing the likelihood of RBA rate cuts. If the RBA maintains rates, the Australian dollar could strengthen, potentially driving the AUD/USD pair higher.

Impact of Fed's Mixed Signals and Strong US Data on AUD/USD Dynamics

Despite the bullish US Dollar, the AUD/USD pair is gaining momentum amid positive risk sentiment. However, the recent comments from Federal Reserve officials hint at possible upcoming interest rate cuts, which could lend support to the Australian dollar.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated potential policy adjustments, expressing confidence that inflation is nearing the Fed's 2% target.

Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggested that the time might be right to consider rate cuts, and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin advocated for a "test and learn" approach. These mixed signals from the Fed could influence market dynamics and impact the USD.

On the data front, the US economy demonstrated strength as Durable Goods Orders surged 9.9% in July, the highest increase since May 2020 and significantly surpassing expectations.

Despite this robust economic data, markets have fully priced in a 25 basis points rate cut, with a 30% probability of a larger cut, down from 36.5% the previous week.

Therefore, the mixed signals from the Fed, coupled with strong US economic data, may support the AUD/USD pair.

Interest rate cut speculation could bolster the Australian dollar, while robust US data might limit USD gains, influencing AUD/USD dynamics.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at $0.67752, up 0.18% on the day, signaling a modest bullish trend.

The pivot point to watch is $0.6761. If prices stay above this level, the pair could continue its upward momentum, with immediate resistance at $0.6796, followed by $0.6816 and $0.6837.

A break above these levels could further solidify the bullish trend, with the potential to test higher levels in the short term.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $0.6740, with additional support levels at $0.6717 and $0.6696, providing a cushion for any pullbacks.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently at $0.6752, is serving as a crucial support level. As long as the AUD/USD remains above this EMA, the outlook remains positive, with the trend likely to stay bullish.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 55, indicating that the market is leaning towards bullish territory but isn't overbought, leaving room for further upside.

In summary, the technical indicators suggest that buying interest will likely strengthen if the pair remains above the pivot point at $0.6761.

Traders should consider entering long positions above $0.67614, targeting $0.67957, with a stop loss set at $0.67432 to manage risk. However, a drop below $0.6740 could signal a potential shift towards a bearish trend.

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Daily Trade Ideas

AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 22, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

- Pivot Point: $0.6772 is a key level for further gains.

- Support Levels: $0.6714, $0.6684, and $0.6666.

- Resistance Levels: $0.6754, $0.6771, and $0.6792.

The AUD/USD pair is showing signs of strength, currently trading at $0.67517. The pivot point at $0.6772 will be crucial in determining whether the pair can sustain its upward momentum.

Immediate resistance is at $0.6754, with further hurdles at $0.6771 and $0.6792. If the price breaks above these levels, the pair could see further gains.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $0.6714, followed by $0.6684 and $0.6666. The RSI is nearing overbought territory at 69, indicating that the bullish momentum may soon face some resistance.

However, the 50-day EMA at $0.6662 is supportive, suggesting that the underlying trend remains positive.

Conclusion: Consider buying above $0.67372, with a target of $0.67715 and a stop loss at $0.67143.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 0.67372

Take Profit – 0.67715

Stop Loss – 0.67143

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$343/ -$229

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$34/ -$22

AUD/USD

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Price Analysis – Aug 22, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 22, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the hawkish sentiment surrounding the RBA's rate trajectory, the AUD/USD currency pair failed to sustain its early-day upward momentum and turned bearish around the 0.6738 level, hitting an intra-day low of 0.6727.

This downward trend can be attributed to the mild renewed strength of the US dollar, which gained traction following a slight recovery in Treasury yields on Thursday.

On the positive side, Australia's Judo Bank Composite PMI increased to 51.4 in August, fueled by stronger service sector growth.

However, the downside of the AUD/USD pair could be limited due to the hawkish stance adopted by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) regarding its policy outlook.

RBA's Hawkish Stance and Strong Services PMI Support AUD/USD Pair

On the AUD front, the downside of the AUD/USD pair may be limited due to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish stance. The RBA's August Meeting Minutes revealed that the cash rate is likely to remain unchanged for some time.

Earlier this month, the board considered raising rates but decided that holding steady would better manage risks.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock emphasized that the central bank is ready to raise rates again if necessary to combat inflation. This decision marks the sixth consecutive meeting where the RBA has kept rates at 4.35%.

On the data front, Australia's Judo Bank Composite PMI rose to 51.4 in August, up from 49.9 in July, indicating the fastest expansion in three months.

This improvement was driven by a stronger services sector, even though manufacturing continued to decline. Meanwhile, the Services PMI increased to 52.2 in August from 50.4 in July, showing the fastest growth in services output in three months.

However, the Manufacturing PMI slightly rose to 48.7 from 47.5, indicating a continued, though slower, contraction in the sector for the seventh month in a row.

Therefore, the news is likely to support the AUD/USD pair. The RBA's hawkish stance and steady rates, combined with strong service sector growth, provide a positive outlook for the Australian dollar, despite ongoing manufacturing sector weakness.

Impact of US Rate Cut Expectations and Fed Caution on AUD/USD Pair

On the US front, the US Dollar (USD) gained slightly due to a minor recovery in Treasury yields on Thursday. However, it faced some challenges as the FOMC Minutes for July indicated that most Federal Reserve officials are likely to cut the benchmark interest rate in September.

Traders are closely watching Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is now about 65.5%, down from 71.0% a day earlier. Meanwhile, the chance of a 50 basis point cut has increased to 34.5% from 29.0%.

Furthermore, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman expressed caution on Tuesday about making policy changes too quickly, citing risks to inflation. She warned that reacting too strongly to single data points could harm the progress made.

Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari suggested that discussing potential rate cuts in September might be appropriate due to concerns about a weakening labor market.

Therefore, the news could lead to a stronger AUD/USD pair as the expectations of a Fed rate cut, combined with ongoing caution from Fed officials, may weaken the USD, while the prospect of lower interest rates supports the Australian dollar.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair is showing signs of strength, currently trading at $0.67517. The pivot point at $0.6772 will be crucial in determining whether the pair can sustain its upward momentum. Immediate resistance is at $0.6754, with further hurdles at $0.6771 and $0.6792.

If the price breaks above these levels, the pair could see further gains. On the downside, immediate support is found at $0.6714, followed by $0.6684 and $0.6666.

The RSI is nearing overbought territory at 69, indicating that the bullish momentum may soon face some resistance.

However, the 50-day EMA at $0.6662 is supportive, suggesting that the underlying trend remains positive.

Conclusion: Consider buying above $0.67372, with a target of $0.67715 and a stop loss at $0.67143.

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Daily Trade Ideas

AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 20, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

- AUD/USD is trading near overbought territory with RSI at 74.

- Key pivot point at $0.6738 will determine the short-term trend.

- Support at $0.6704 is crucial for maintaining the bullish outlook.

The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at $0.67258, showing a modest decline of 0.18%. The pivot point at $0.6738 is crucial for determining the short-term direction.

Immediate resistance is located at $0.6754, with further resistance levels at $0.6771 and $0.6792. On the downside, support levels are found at $0.6704, $0.6684, and $0.6666.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 74, indicating that the pair is in overbought territory, which could suggest a potential pullback or correction.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $0.6621, providing a strong support level that reinforces the ongoing bullish trend.

Given the current technical setup, if AUD/USD remains above the $0.6704 support level, the bullish outlook is likely to continue.

A break above the immediate resistance at $0.6754 could push the pair higher towards $0.6771 and beyond.

However, if the pair falls below $0.6704, it could trigger a deeper correction towards the next support levels.

Conclusion: The strategy here is to buy above $0.67037, targeting a profit at $0.67652 with a stop loss at $0.66693.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 0.67037

Take Profit – 0.67652

Stop Loss – 0.66693

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$615/ -$344

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$61/ -$34

AUD/USD

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Price Analysis – Aug 20, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 20, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair maintained a bullish stance and remained well bid around the 0.6732 level, reaching an intra-day high of 0.6739.

This upward momentum was driven by several factors, including hawkish sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

Additionally, the US Dollar (USD) continues to face downward pressure following comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, which have increased the likelihood of upcoming rate cuts by the US central bank.

Looking forward, traders are cautious ahead of the July FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.

Meanwhile, dovish Fed expectations and ongoing geopolitical risks could provide some support for the AUD/USD pair, potentially limiting further declines.

RBA’s Steady Rates and PBoC’s Unchanged LPRs Impact on AUD/USD

On the AUD front, the AUD/USD pair could see some appreciation following the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) August meeting minutes.

These minutes revealed that the RBA considered raising interest rates but ultimately decided that keeping the cash rate steady would better balance the economic risks.

RBA members agreed that a rate cut is unlikely in the near future, suggesting that the cash rate could remain unchanged for an extended period.

This decision reflects the RBA's cautious approach to managing inflation and economic growth, which may provide some support for the Australian dollar against the US dollar.

On the other side, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) kept its one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged in August at 3.35% and 3.85%.

Since China is a key trade partner for Australia, any shifts in the Chinese economy could affect Australian markets.

Therefore, RBA's decision to keep rates steady could boost the AUD/USD pair, supporting the Australian dollar. However, China's unchanged LPRs mean any economic changes in China might also impact the pair.

Impact of US Economic Data and Fed Signals on AUD/USD Pair

On the US front, the US Dollar (USD) is under pressure following comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials hinting at possible rate cuts.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari suggested discussing rate cuts in September due to concerns about a weakening job market.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly advocated for a gradual approach to lowering borrowing costs. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned against keeping restrictive policies too long.

On the data front, US Housing Starts fell by 6.8% to 1.238 million units in July after a slight increase in June.

However, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 67.8 in August, marking its first gain in five months. US Retail Sales surged 1.0% in July, a sharp rebound from June’s decline, and Initial Jobless Claims for early August were lower than expected at 227,000.

Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.9% year-over-year in July, slightly below June's rate, while Core CPI increased 3.2%, matching forecasts.

The USD's weakness from potential Fed rate cuts and mixed economic data could support the AUD/USD pair. Strong retail sales and consumer sentiment may bolster the Australian dollar against the USD.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at $0.67258, showing a modest decline of 0.18%. The pivot point at $0.6738 is crucial for determining the short-term direction.

Immediate resistance is located at $0.6754, with further resistance levels at $0.6771 and $0.6792. On the downside, support levels are found at $0.6704, $0.6684, and $0.6666.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 74, indicating that the pair is in overbought territory, which could suggest a potential pullback or correction.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $0.6621, providing a strong support level that reinforces the ongoing bullish trend.

Given the current technical setup, if AUD/USD remains above the $0.6704 support level, the bullish outlook is likely to continue.

A break above the immediate resistance at $0.6754 could push the pair higher towards $0.6771 and beyond.

However, if the pair falls below $0.6704, it could trigger a deeper correction towards the next support levels.

Conclusion: The strategy here is to buy above $0.67037, targeting a profit at $0.67652 with a stop loss at $0.66693.

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Daily Trade Ideas

AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 15, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

- Buy Entry: Limit order at $0.66051, targeting $0.66666.

- Immediate Resistance: Watch $0.66434 for a potential breakout.

- Support Levels: Key support at $0.65809; a break below could shift the trend.

The AUD/USD pair is showing a modest uptick, currently trading at $0.66210, which is slightly above its pivot point of $0.66058.

This positioning suggests a bullish sentiment in the short term, especially as the price is holding above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.66015.

The 4-hour chart indicates that the pair is trying to build momentum, with the immediate resistance at $0.66434 being the next hurdle for bulls to overcome.

If the pair can break through this resistance, it may target higher levels at $0.66696 and $0.67019, signaling a continuation of the upward trend.

However, on the downside, the immediate support lies at $0.65809, followed by $0.65471 and $0.65127. These support levels are crucial; a break below them could indicate a shift in sentiment towards a bearish outlook.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 54, which suggests that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, allowing room for further movement in either direction.

With the price hovering around the pivot point and supported by the 50 EMA, the technical outlook leans slightly bullish for now.

For traders looking to enter the market, a buy limit order at $0.66051 could be strategic, with a take profit set at $0.66666. Setting a stop-loss at $0.65707 would help manage risk in case of an unexpected downturn.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Limit 0.66051

Take Profit – 0.66666

Stop Loss – 0.65707

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$615/ -$344

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$61/ -$34

AUD/USD

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Price Analysis – Aug 15, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 15, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair experienced a bullish trend and drew strong bid around the 0.6628 level, and reaching an intra-day high of 0.6631.

This recovery was fueled by the release of upbeat employment data in Australia and supportive economic signals from China.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) managed to regain some ground after facing downward pressure due to declining commodity prices and mixed economic indicators.

In contrast, the US Dollar (USD) weakened following moderate inflation data that led investors to reassess Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations.

Impact of Australian Economic Data and RBA Stance on AUD/USD Pair

On the AUD front, the AUD/USD pair's recovery is partly attributed to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy outlook.

Despite challenges from falling copper and iron ore prices, which have added pressure on the commodity-linked currency, the RBA's hawkish stance remains a key support factor.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock emphasized that the central bank is vigilant about inflation risks and is prepared to increase rates further if necessary.

On the data front, the Australian Employment Change for July showed a robust increase of 58.2K, surpassing expectations of 20.0K, although the Unemployment Rate edged up to 4.2% from the anticipated 4.1%.

Additionally, China's economic data, including a 2.7% increase in Retail Sales and a moderate 5.1% rise in Industrial Production, provided a backdrop of cautious optimism.

Despite the positive employment data, Australia's Westpac Consumer Confidence increased by 2.8% in August, reversing a 1.1% decline in July, reflecting improved sentiment.

However, the Wage Price Index for Q2 was slightly below expectations at 0.8%, highlighting ongoing economic uncertainties.

Therefore, the RBA's cautious approach and high wage growth expectations continue to influence the AUD/USD pair, with market participants closely monitoring the central bank's next moves.

Impact of US Economic Data and Fed Rate Cut Expectations on AUD/USD Pair

On the US side, the AUD/USD pair gained momentum as the US Dollar (USD) lost its traction and edged lower amid dovish Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook.

It should be noted that the moderate increase in July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 2.9% year-over-year, coupled with a slight decrease in Core CPI to 3.2%, has fueled speculation about potential Fed rate cuts.

Market expectations currently lean towards a modest 25 basis point cut in September, with a 36% chance of a larger 50 basis point reduction.

However, Federal Reserve officials, including Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Governor Michelle Bowman, have expressed concerns about inflation risks and the labor market.

These remarks suggest that substantial rate cuts may be less likely, which could temper the US Dollar’s weakness.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair is showing a modest uptick, currently trading at $0.66210, which is slightly above its pivot point of $0.66058.

This positioning suggests a bullish sentiment in the short term, especially as the price is holding above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.66015.

The 4-hour chart indicates that the pair is trying to build momentum, with the immediate resistance at $0.66434 being the next hurdle for bulls to overcome.

If the pair can break through this resistance, it may target higher levels at $0.66696 and $0.67019, signaling a continuation of the upward trend.

However, on the downside, the immediate support lies at $0.65809, followed by $0.65471 and $0.65127. These support levels are crucial; a break below them could indicate a shift in sentiment towards a bearish outlook.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 54, which suggests that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, allowing room for further movement in either direction.

With the price hovering around the pivot point and supported by the 50 EMA, the technical outlook leans slightly bullish for now.

For traders looking to enter the market, a buy limit order at $0.66051 could be strategic, with a take profit set at $0.66666. Setting a stop-loss at $0.65707 would help manage risk in case of an unexpected downturn.

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AUD/USD Price Analysis – Aug 13, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 13, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair maintained a bullish stance and remained well bid around the 0.6598 level, reaching an intra-day high of 0.6610.

This upward momentum was driven by several factors, including hawkish sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

Additionally, Australia's Westpac Consumer Confidence increased by 2.8% in August, reversing the 1.1% decline observed in July, which provided substantial support to the Australian dollar (AUD).

Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) weakened as markets increasingly priced in the likelihood of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts, further enhancing the AUD/USD pair's gains.

Risk-on sentiment in the markets also contributed to the pair's upward movement.

Impact of RBA Stance and Economic Data on AUD/USD Pair

On the AUD front, the AUD/USD pair might rise due to a hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser pointed out that persistent inflation is driven by weak supply and a tight labor market, with significant uncertainty in economic forecasts.

Westpac has revised its RBA outlook, now expecting the first rate cut in February 2025 instead of November 2024, and increasing its terminal rate forecast to 3.35% from 3.10%.

This shift indicates the RBA is more cautious and needs stronger evidence before cutting rates.

Meanwhile, Treasurer Jim Chalmers challenged the RBA's view on the economy, suggesting that large government budgets are adding to inflation.

Additionally, RBA Governor Michele Bullock stated that the bank is ready to raise rates further if necessary, following a steady rate of 4.35% for six consecutive meetings.

On the data front, Australia's Westpac Consumer Confidence rose by 2.8% in August, reversing a 1.1% drop in July.

The Wage Price Index stayed steady with a 0.8% increase in the second quarter, slightly missing the 0.9% forecast.

In China, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 0.5% year-on-year in July, surpassing the expected 0.3% and the previous 0.2% increase. The monthly CPI also rose 0.5%, recovering from a 0.2% decline earlier.

Therefore, the hawkish stance from the RBA and increased rate forecast could boost the AUD/USD pair, as higher rates typically strengthen the currency.

Conversely, mixed domestic data and China's CPI rise may add volatility but won't likely overshadow the RBA's impact.

Impact of Fed Rate Cut Expectations on AUD/USD Pair

On the US front, the AUD/USD pair is gaining momentum as the US Dollar faces pressure from expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September.

However, the likelihood of a significant 50-basis point cut has diminished. Traders are closely monitoring US producer inflation data on Tuesday and consumer inflation figures on Wednesday for signs that price growth remains steady.

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman highlighted ongoing inflation risks and strong labor market conditions, suggesting that the Fed might hold off on cutting rates in September.

Additionally, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid noted that while reducing monetary policy could be considered if inflation remains low, the current policy is not excessively restrictive, and the Fed is still working toward its 2% inflation target.

Therefore, the AUD/USD pair may gain support as expectations of a Fed rate cut put pressure on the US Dollar.

However, diminished chances of a substantial cut and Fed officials' cautious comments on inflation might limit the pair's potential upside.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at $0.66043, up 0.09% on the 4-hour chart. The Australian dollar seems to be gaining some ground as it approaches key resistance levels.

The pivot point at $0.6580 is particularly important today; holding above this level suggests that the bulls may continue to push prices higher.

Immediate resistance is located at $0.6620, with further resistance at $0.6659 and $0.6702. If the price can break through these levels, it could signal a continuation of the upward trend.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $0.6547, followed by stronger support levels at $0.6508 and $0.6475.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.6540 is providing a solid base for the current bullish momentum.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 62, indicating that while the pair is in bullish territory, it's not yet overbought, leaving room for further gains.

Given the current technical setup, a buy limit at $0.65804 with a target of $0.66437 and a stop loss at $0.65428 seems to be a balanced approach.

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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 13, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

- AUD/USD is holding above the pivot point of $0.6580, signaling potential for further gains.

- Immediate resistance at $0.6620; a break above could extend the bullish trend.

- Support at $0.6547; staying above this level maintains the bullish outlook.

The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at $0.66043, up 0.09% on the 4-hour chart. The Australian dollar seems to be gaining some ground as it approaches key resistance levels.

The pivot point at $0.6580 is particularly important today; holding above this level suggests that the bulls may continue to push prices higher.

Immediate resistance is located at $0.6620, with further resistance at $0.6659 and $0.6702. If the price can break through these levels, it could signal a continuation of the upward trend.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $0.6547, followed by stronger support levels at $0.6508 and $0.6475.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.6540 is providing a solid base for the current bullish momentum.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 62, indicating that while the pair is in bullish territory, it's not yet overbought, leaving room for further gains.

Given the current technical setup, a buy limit at $0.65804 with a target of $0.66437 and a stop loss at $0.65428 seems to be a balanced approach.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Limit 0.65804

Take Profit – 0.66437

Stop Loss – 0.65428

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$633/ -$376

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$63/ -$37

AUD/USD